Hukoomat IMF Ko Razi Karne Mein Kamyaab. . Mahir Mashiyat Ka IMF Muahiday Par Ahem Tajzia

  • 2 weeks ago
Hukoomat IMF Ko Razi Karne Mein Kamyaab. . Mahir Mashiyat Ka IMF Muahiday Par Ahem Tajzia
Transcript
01:00Pakistan has also been successful in obtaining financial certainty from its progressive partners,
01:07which is why this issue is now being solved.
01:10The State Bank of Pakistan says that the government has obtained all financial certainties required for the IMF program.
01:17Now there is no further hinderance in obtaining the IMF program.
01:20It will be a smooth sale from here.
01:22At this time, Pakistan has to pay 26.20 billion dollars in the year 2020.
01:28And in the financial year, there will be a 16.3 billion dollar rollover.
01:34In total, it will be 42 billion dollars.
01:40Dr. Khakar Navjeeb, who is an economist, is present with us.
01:46Thank you very much, Dr.
01:47You joined us.
01:48Mr. Ashfaq Tola is present with us.
01:49He is an economist.
01:50Thank you very much, Mr. Tola.
01:51You also joined us.
01:52Mr. Tola, let's start with you.
01:53The IMF issue has been hanging for a long time.
01:56When we took the 9 months program, we had a big problem.
02:04You remember very well why it happened.
02:06You also remember that the Prime Minister himself went and solved the issue.
02:10We also remember that.
02:11Why do we have to have issues every time?
02:13Is there a political pressure from the IMF on us every time?
02:18Or are we not capable?
02:21I will tell you one thing.
02:25There was a meeting.
02:27There was no pressure from us.
02:29They wanted to do two reviews together.
02:34They had to come in September.
02:37They wanted to come in November.
02:39We were getting them to do one review in November.
02:41They insisted that we do two reviews.
02:43And then the situation got worse.
02:45The IMF is very stubborn.
02:47They are giving money.
02:48They have to be stubborn.
02:49They have their own issues.
02:51And because they are giving money, I cannot say anything to them.
02:55But the question is,
02:57when we spoke to them and told them that we will not do it this way.
03:05Then they asked for the details of the budget.
03:07We gave them everything.
03:08I think that if you come now,
03:12you will see that we had a staff level agreement in July.
03:15Meaning that all your things would have been agreed.
03:18But what was the reason for the delay?
03:22The reason was like you said about the figures.
03:24This is actually going to be rolled over in 26.6 billion dollars.
03:36The rest is 10 billion dollars.
03:38We have already paid 1.5 billion dollars out of 10 billion dollars.
03:42And let me remind you that if you take a program from the IMF now,
03:47which will come to you in the first week of October,
03:51then the IMF, the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank,
03:54and all these lenders will come to you with 3 to 3.5 billion dollars.
03:59So don't think that after 8.5 billion dollars,
04:02after 3 billion dollars, there will be 5 billion dollars more.
04:06Okay, they told us to take a commercial loan of 2 billion dollars.
04:10And 3.7 billion dollars is your current account deficit.
04:14So the 2 billion dollars that you are taking,
04:16I think in my humble view or according to the best of my information,
04:21a reliable information,
04:23you have taken the most expensive loan from the European Bank.
04:26Return that first.
04:29No, we have to do that.
04:31I want to say this.
04:33Last year, the State Bank took 7 billion dollars from the market,
04:37which we had access to,
04:39through our exports and remittances,
04:41minus imports.
04:43Okay.
04:44So that question is still available to us.
04:47Yes, if we could get a rollover,
04:49without the IMF program,
04:51I think we have made a big mistake by taking the IMF program.
04:54Okay.
04:55We will have to bear the consequences of that.
04:57If we could get a rollover,
04:59I think without the IMF program,
05:01we could have managed our program very well.
05:05And you could have reduced your interest rate by 6 to 7 percent.
05:09You could have brought the currency parity at 235.
05:12And your fiscal deficit would have been 1.5 to 2 percent.
05:16GDP would have been there.
05:17Okay.
05:18Thank you for clarifying.
05:2026 and 16 are not available.
05:23If 16 is subtracted from 26,
05:25then 10 will be left.
05:26So basically, we will have to pay 10 now.
05:28But Dr. Khakhan,
05:30a while ago,
05:31Mr. Umar Ayyub was with me.
05:33He was talking very alarmingly
05:35that this dollar will go to 350 rupees.
05:38Expenses will increase.
05:39Gas will be available in winters.
05:41If there is a shortage here,
05:43gas prices will also increase.
05:45And there will be no liability.
05:48Are you also seeing this happening?
05:50Or is it just something that PTI sees?
05:54Let me paint a picture
05:56of where we are standing
05:57with a lot of clarity.
05:59There is a macro stability in Pakistan.
06:02And this stability is due to the engagement of the IMF.
06:06Rupees are stable because
06:09when the fund program was not happening,
06:12today there is a 2-month import cover
06:14of 9.5 billion dollars.
06:16So that is number one.
06:17Number two,
06:18there is 9.6% inflation.
06:20The clock that has happened now,
06:22in the last 2 years,
06:24we have seen 29 and 24 when the fund was there.
06:28And today you have seen 9.6%.
06:31I don't think that the expectations of inflation
06:34are very high.
06:35If there are no such energy pass-throughs,
06:37there is oil in the world at 72 dollars.
06:40I think on 15th,
06:41some 12-14 rupees should come down in Pakistan.
06:45So this is the second thing.
06:47The third thing is that the country,
06:49because we have stopped growth,
06:51kept a tighter monetary policy,
06:53broke the demand,
06:55we have given the country a price of stability.
06:59So overall we are standing here.
07:01I think in the coming days,
07:03this stability will be seen to be cemented.
07:06Because with the fund,
07:08the engagement will be in the board.
07:10But here are 3 really important points.
07:13Before going to these 3 points,
07:15because they are important,
07:17I will put a hold over here.
07:19You are talking about this time.
07:21This macroeconomic stability,
07:22will it be long term or short term?
07:24Tell me this too.
07:25Because at this time,
07:26we are sitting in September.
07:28Next is October, November, December, January, February.
07:32These are the months of winter.
07:33My question stands there.
07:34Has Mr. Umar Ayyub expressed the fear
07:38that there will be no gas in the winters,
07:40that gas prices will rise in the winters.
07:42Is that correct?
07:44Look, Pakistan determines the price of gas.
07:47First of all, it has nothing to do with IMF.
07:49I always explain this.
07:51Ugra determines the price of gas.
07:53I think there is a lot of rise in gas prices.
07:55I can't see it because
07:57if there is not a lot of weakness in the currency,
08:00which again I can't see,
08:02because the reserves should be better from here.
08:05That's why there is no such price pass-through.
08:09I think the major price pass-throughs were
08:11If Ugra reviews the prices on 1st January,
08:14then we will see again.

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