Hukoomat IMF Ko Razi Karne Mein Kamyaab. . Mahir Mashiyat Ka IMF Muahiday Par Ahem Tajzia

ARY NEWS

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01:00Pakistan has also been successful in obtaining financial certainty from its progressive partners,

01:07which is why this issue is now being solved.

01:10The State Bank of Pakistan says that the government has obtained all financial certainties required for the IMF program.

01:17Now there is no further hinderance in obtaining the IMF program.

01:20It will be a smooth sale from here.

01:22At this time, Pakistan has to pay 26.20 billion dollars in the year 2020.

01:28And in the financial year, there will be a 16.3 billion dollar rollover.

01:34In total, it will be 42 billion dollars.

01:40Dr. Khakar Navjeeb, who is an economist, is present with us.

01:46Thank you very much, Dr.

01:47You joined us.

01:48Mr. Ashfaq Tola is present with us.

01:49He is an economist.

01:50Thank you very much, Mr. Tola.

01:51You also joined us.

01:52Mr. Tola, let's start with you.

01:53The IMF issue has been hanging for a long time.

01:56When we took the 9 months program, we had a big problem.

02:04You remember very well why it happened.

02:06You also remember that the Prime Minister himself went and solved the issue.

02:10We also remember that.

02:11Why do we have to have issues every time?

02:13Is there a political pressure from the IMF on us every time?

02:18Or are we not capable?

02:21I will tell you one thing.

02:25There was a meeting.

02:27There was no pressure from us.

02:29They wanted to do two reviews together.

02:34They had to come in September.

02:37They wanted to come in November.

02:39We were getting them to do one review in November.

02:41They insisted that we do two reviews.

02:43And then the situation got worse.

02:45The IMF is very stubborn.

02:47They are giving money.

02:48They have to be stubborn.

02:49They have their own issues.

02:51And because they are giving money, I cannot say anything to them.

02:55But the question is,

02:57when we spoke to them and told them that we will not do it this way.

03:05Then they asked for the details of the budget.

03:07We gave them everything.

03:08I think that if you come now,

03:12you will see that we had a staff level agreement in July.

03:15Meaning that all your things would have been agreed.

03:18But what was the reason for the delay?

03:22The reason was like you said about the figures.

03:24This is actually going to be rolled over in 26.6 billion dollars.

03:36The rest is 10 billion dollars.

03:38We have already paid 1.5 billion dollars out of 10 billion dollars.

03:42And let me remind you that if you take a program from the IMF now,

03:47which will come to you in the first week of October,

03:51then the IMF, the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank,

03:54and all these lenders will come to you with 3 to 3.5 billion dollars.

03:59So don't think that after 8.5 billion dollars,

04:02after 3 billion dollars, there will be 5 billion dollars more.

04:06Okay, they told us to take a commercial loan of 2 billion dollars.

04:10And 3.7 billion dollars is your current account deficit.

04:14So the 2 billion dollars that you are taking,

04:16I think in my humble view or according to the best of my information,

04:21a reliable information,

04:23you have taken the most expensive loan from the European Bank.

04:26Return that first.

04:29No, we have to do that.

04:31I want to say this.

04:33Last year, the State Bank took 7 billion dollars from the market,

04:37which we had access to,

04:39through our exports and remittances,

04:41minus imports.

04:43Okay.

04:44So that question is still available to us.

04:47Yes, if we could get a rollover,

04:49without the IMF program,

04:51I think we have made a big mistake by taking the IMF program.

04:54Okay.

04:55We will have to bear the consequences of that.

04:57If we could get a rollover,

04:59I think without the IMF program,

05:01we could have managed our program very well.

05:05And you could have reduced your interest rate by 6 to 7 percent.

05:09You could have brought the currency parity at 235.

05:12And your fiscal deficit would have been 1.5 to 2 percent.

05:16GDP would have been there.

05:17Okay.

05:18Thank you for clarifying.

05:2026 and 16 are not available.

05:23If 16 is subtracted from 26,

05:25then 10 will be left.

05:26So basically, we will have to pay 10 now.

05:28But Dr. Khakhan,

05:30a while ago,

05:31Mr. Umar Ayyub was with me.

05:33He was talking very alarmingly

05:35that this dollar will go to 350 rupees.

05:38Expenses will increase.

05:39Gas will be available in winters.

05:41If there is a shortage here,

05:43gas prices will also increase.

05:45And there will be no liability.

05:48Are you also seeing this happening?

05:50Or is it just something that PTI sees?

05:54Let me paint a picture

05:56of where we are standing

05:57with a lot of clarity.

05:59There is a macro stability in Pakistan.

06:02And this stability is due to the engagement of the IMF.

06:06Rupees are stable because

06:09when the fund program was not happening,

06:12today there is a 2-month import cover

06:14of 9.5 billion dollars.

06:16So that is number one.

06:17Number two,

06:18there is 9.6% inflation.

06:20The clock that has happened now,

06:22in the last 2 years,

06:24we have seen 29 and 24 when the fund was there.

06:28And today you have seen 9.6%.

06:31I don't think that the expectations of inflation

06:34are very high.

06:35If there are no such energy pass-throughs,

06:37there is oil in the world at 72 dollars.

06:40I think on 15th,

06:41some 12-14 rupees should come down in Pakistan.

06:45So this is the second thing.

06:47The third thing is that the country,

06:49because we have stopped growth,

06:51kept a tighter monetary policy,

06:53broke the demand,

06:55we have given the country a price of stability.

06:59So overall we are standing here.

07:01I think in the coming days,

07:03this stability will be seen to be cemented.

07:06Because with the fund,

07:08the engagement will be in the board.

07:10But here are 3 really important points.

07:13Before going to these 3 points,

07:15because they are important,

07:17I will put a hold over here.

07:19You are talking about this time.

07:21This macroeconomic stability,

07:22will it be long term or short term?

07:24Tell me this too.

07:25Because at this time,

07:26we are sitting in September.

07:28Next is October, November, December, January, February.

07:32These are the months of winter.

07:33My question stands there.

07:34Has Mr. Umar Ayyub expressed the fear

07:38that there will be no gas in the winters,

07:40that gas prices will rise in the winters.

07:42Is that correct?

07:44Look, Pakistan determines the price of gas.

07:47First of all, it has nothing to do with IMF.

07:49I always explain this.

07:51Ugra determines the price of gas.

07:53I think there is a lot of rise in gas prices.

07:55I can't see it because

07:57if there is not a lot of weakness in the currency,

08:00which again I can't see,

08:02because the reserves should be better from here.

08:05That's why there is no such price pass-through.

08:09I think the major price pass-throughs were

08:11If Ugra reviews the prices on 1st January,

08:14then we will see again.

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