Forecasters concerned about tornado threat as Francine keeps moving

AccuWeather

AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter explains why conditions surrounding Francine, even after it's weakened, could lead to tornadoes in Alabama and surrounding areas on Sept. 12.

Transcript

00:00And to help us break down the latest on Francine, we are now joined by active weather chief meteorologist

00:04John Porter. John, we still have an environment here that's leading to some flood risk and also

00:10some risk on the east side of isolated tornadoes. We had our eye on one cell not far from Montgomery

00:15that had a little hint of some spin in the past hour. Yeah, I think that's the key area to focus

00:20in on as we take a look at the latest visible satellite image here. We can see some breaks in

00:25the clouds here denoted by these gray colors across parts of Alabama. So there's some more

00:31mid-level dry air working into the system today as of course as compared to yesterday. So that's

00:37why we're concerned more about a tornado threat centered on Alabama here and also toward the

00:43panhandle of Florida. Those look like they're the two main areas of concern as we head through the

00:48next couple of hours. AccuWeather experts in our Severe Weather Center have issued a notification

00:54about increasing tornado risk across Alabama. The government's National Weather Service has yet to

00:59issue a tornado watch in that area. Yeah, we're going to keep an eye on this and John, farther

01:03southeast in Florida, while there is some risk there as you mentioned, that's a little more

01:07removed from the core of this storm. So the farther northwest you go up into the Montgomery area, the

01:11greater the shear is, although there is a little more moisture slamming into the Florida coastline.

01:16Right, maybe it's a balance of those two factors because as you mentioned that

01:20there is a lot of changing wind speed with a height as you go up in the atmosphere, lots of

01:24spinning motion in the atmosphere centered across Alabama and that's why we're concerned about that.

01:29But look at these dew points, we're talking about low to mid-70s, plenty of high octane air here

01:35to power those severe thunderstorms here this afternoon. And these are going to be some

01:39thunderstorms that have very low bases here. There's an abundant amount of moisture out there

01:43and that sometimes would require a little less work from the atmosphere to get one of these

01:47tornadoes or funnels to potentially come down to ground level. They can spin up very quickly too,

01:52which is why it's very important for you to download the AccuWeather app, turn on push

01:56notifications, and if you receive a tornado warning in your community, move to safe shelter quickly.

02:02And over the next couple of days, we're going to have repetitive rounds of showers and storms,

02:06so it's not just a today situation. Overall, as the system decays, John, would we expect to see

02:11the tornado threat gradually diminish? Yeah, the tornado threat as the amount of spin in the

02:16atmosphere reduces will wane, but what will continue to increase is the flash flooding risk

02:23here over the next couple of days from Tennessee to North Georgia toward the upstate of South

02:27Carolina. Repeated downpours in the same area, that's a recipe for concerns into the weekend.

02:33And overall, the lines gradually kind of become blurred between Francine and interaction with the

02:38trough and just kind of a really murky pattern across the southeast. But dialing the conversation

02:43into that tornado threat, John, here we have the whole state of Alabama at least at some degree of

02:48risk. We do, and that can also extend it apart to Tennessee. It may be much more localized there as

02:53well, and also down to the Florida panhandles we talked about too. And then the rain potential

02:58there lingers through Friday, Saturday, even Sunday, and I know that there are some eyes on

03:02that disturbance near the Carolina coast that we have to keep an eye on. We are going to be

03:07monitoring all of that over the coming days, but our eyes are drawn to this setup here.

03:12Friday through Sunday, let's not let our guard down here from Tennessee to Georgia, northeastern

03:18Alabama, and the upstate of South Carolina, also into the mountains of North Carolina,

03:22because we're going to have this flow of significant moisture from somewhat from the

03:27Gulf, but also from the Atlantic being drawn into this storm system that's going to be very slow

03:33moving. So look for heavy thunderstorms that can persist over the same areas. I'm concerned that

03:38there could be a very significant flash flooding event in this area over the weekend, perhaps a

03:44very small area, but significant concerns. So keep track with us here at AccuWeather on the AccuWeather

03:50network and the AccuWeather app over the next couple of days. All right, thank you very much

03:54there. AccuWeather chief meteorologist John Porter with the latest as well, Francine.

03:59Impacts not over yet by any stretch. Thanks, John. Thank you.

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