Phillies vs. Braves Game Preview: Schwellenbach a Slight Favorite

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00:00The Philz and the Braves today, the third and final game of the set in Atlanta.

00:08It's a virtual pick'em once again, Spencer Schwellenbach and the Braves, a very, very

00:12slight favorite against the Philz today.

00:15The over-under is eight, who takes the rubber match, who takes the series?

00:20And that's interesting, this game is in Atlanta tonight, not in Philadelphia.

00:22The reason I bring that up is Christopher Sanchez is a really good pitcher here, but

00:26there are some question marks about where he pitches better at.

00:29And Citizens Bank ballpark is not a great pitcher's ballpark.

00:32I understand, it's on the road, but hear me out on this.

00:34If the game was in Philadelphia, you know who the best pitcher analytically on the card

00:37would be today?

00:38Christopher Sanchez, a 218 ERA at home, an XFIP number of 2.63, that's through 86 and

00:44two-thirds innings pitched.

00:46Filthy at home.

00:47Now let's go on the road.

00:48So going from the top pitcher, we drop him to the 12th pitcher here, Ben, a 5.53 ERA,

00:54over 53 and two-thirds innings pitched, and an XFIP of 4.24.

00:57Schwellenbach, who came up to the majors, a little bit of a rocky start, has really

01:00settled in as a quality starter.

01:03You're still looking at pedigree, right?

01:05The Phillies are the better team, and I keep saying it.

01:07The Atlanta Braves, a triple-A team, basically thrown up there.

01:09The Phillies should win by default at this point.

01:12But if we are looking at that total, which is listed at eight, I don't know if we get

01:15nine runs.

01:16I don't think the game will go over yesterday, and it didn't.

01:18So if Sanchez has a decent performance, I don't trust those bats for Atlanta.

01:22And if Schwellenbach is decent, the bats for the Phillies haven't shown up basically in

01:27a month, it feels like, at this point.

01:28So maybe the better bet would be to an under in this game.