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00:00A significant series starting on this Thursday in Cleveland.

00:07There's only five games on this Thursday around MLB.

00:11Maybe the bigs giving way to the Hall of Fame game tonight in

00:14Canton, Ohio between the Bears and the Texans, but

00:18nonetheless a significant set gets started on this Thursday

00:23in the land. It's the two top teams in the American League

00:26Cleveland 65 and 42 now the best win percentage in Major League

00:30Baseball and thus of course the American League.

00:33They have a four game advantage over the Baltimore Orioles

00:36who are 65 and 44 could this series matter at the end of

00:42the year for what ultimately determines who gets the number

00:45one overall seed in the American League playoff bracket the

00:48Guardians a very slight home favorite minus 110 for this

00:52series opener minus 106 on the other side for Baltimore.

00:56Those odds were an even pick them.

00:58This virtually a pick them total nine and a half who wins

01:02the first game today in Cleveland last 60 days been let's

01:06take a look at the pictures.

01:06And again, there's only five games on the card.

01:08Nine pitchers are qualified with least 20 innings pitch.

01:11The worst picture on the card number nine.

01:12It's Trevor Rogers not terrible statistics though in XFIT

01:16minus number of a 118 in ERA.

01:18That's not too bad 3.48, but it does have a high exit number

01:21at 4.77 and as I said that oh, look, we're going to take

01:24the Cleveland Guardians right off the bat.

01:26Ben not necessarily take a look at Trevor Roberts or excuse

01:29me, Trevor Rogers very good against lefties a little bit

01:32shaky against righties, but the Guardians lineup that doesn't

01:36hit all that well against left-handed pitching because

01:38you take a look at the last 30 days Steven Kwan's a lefty.

01:41He's done very well against left-handed pitching

01:43understandably one of the better hitters in Major League

01:45baseball Jose Ramirez 462 ISO power number to weighted on

01:49base percentage of 526 over his last 30 days against left-handed

01:54pitching even Lane Thomas the new acquisition.

01:56He's got a high weighted on base percentage against left-handed

01:58pitchers outside of that.

02:00Nobody is hitting there, which means Fry Naylor Martinez

02:03Jimenez Freeman and Rocio expected to be in the lineup today.

02:06So that could be an addition here where you're looking for

02:08Trevor Roberts to step into a role that he fits right away

02:11against a quality team because they don't hit lefties all

02:13that. Well go over to Ben Lively average pitcher.

02:15You take a look at his numbers a 104 XFIT minus an ERA under

02:19four and an XFIT number of 4.31 over the past 60 days.

02:22However, I just told you Cleveland struggling with left-handed

02:26pitching the Baltimore Orioles been not struggling at all

02:29against right-handed pitching you take a look at Couser Henderson

02:32Santander O'Hern Mullins and Urias here all elevated weighted

02:37on base percentages here that can get after it.

02:39So for my money, even if I don't like the picture on the

02:41mound for Baltimore, I think it's a very good matchup for

02:44the pitcher for Baltimore and Rogers.

02:46I'll go ahead and take the Baltimore Orioles in this game.

02:48I just think the matchup could be in their favor today.

02:51Trevor Rogers, of course making his debut for the Orioles.

02:55He was acquired on deadline day from Miami Baltimore's one

02:59two straight four of its last six Cleveland has won three

03:03straight and six of its last eight.

03:05The Guardians only played a short two game set in the

03:08midweek had yesterday off because I believe a rain out

03:12they were taking on the Tigers.

03:14They won both of those games Detroit at home hosting the

03:18Royals Kansas City doing what you would expect sweeping

03:22the White Sox yesterday with a 10-3 win another divisional

03:27duel for both Casey and Detroit were the Royals a hefty

03:30road favorite in the Motor City.

03:33What's the play today in Detroit?

03:35And the play is simple here.

03:36The Royals should win this game.

03:37We'll go to the pitching matchups in just a second head

03:39to head.

03:40But if you take a look at Montero 54 batters that he's

03:42faced over the past 30 days as right-handed batters 340 ISO

03:46423 weighted on base percentage.

03:48He's faced a total of 71 right-handed batters on the season

03:51hasn't pitched all that much.

03:52That's a 369 ISO and a weighted on base percentage of 443.

03:56How does that match up against that Royals lineup particularly

03:58the number two guy Bobby Witt 342 ISO 565 weighted on base

04:04percentage and a K rate of around 10% over this 80 at bats

04:08against right-handed pitching.

04:09He should be able to do damage today.

04:11But also you take a look at the pitching matchups here, Kansas

04:13City clearly the better pitch on the mound.

04:15That's Seth Lugo last 60 days of Major League Baseball.

04:18How about an 84 XFIT minus an ERA of 3.80 and a very manageable

04:22XFIT number of 3.48.

04:24I know it's expensive.

04:25It's on the road, but we just take a look at matchups overall.

04:28It makes sense to go with Kansas City and I'm not even down

04:31playing that Detroit lineup, which has been getting better

04:33over the past couple weeks, but a better pitcher and a couple

04:36of guys that can crush right-handed pitching that stacks up

04:38for a Kansas City Royals dubbed today for me.

04:41Yes, it absolutely does 10 runs scored yesterday on the south

04:45side against the White Sox and Bobby Witt Jr.

04:47Did not have an RBI but was two for three at the dish drew

04:51two walks scored three runs.

04:53Our guy Vinny P the pass watch pass Quintino three ribbies

04:57yesterday Kansas City now at 60 wins.

05:00I feel great.

05:01Thanks to Craig Mish about the over of my preseason win total

05:05bet on KC at 73 and a half 60 wins for the Royals this year

05:10Donnie.

05:10They only won 56 games all of last year.

05:14We talked about the ace affair underway today at Wrigley

05:17show to Iminaga gets the start for Chicago Sonny Gray on

05:21the other side for st.

05:22Louis.

05:23It's a virtual pick them inside the friendly confines and

05:26this divisional duel.

05:27What's the play?

05:29Some of you might be saying that Sonny Gray could be getting

05:31a little bit unlucky because theoretically number one on

05:33the court over the past 60 days out of those nine pitchers

05:35today, Ben that's Sonny Gray an exfit minus number of 70

05:39and era that's close to five but an exfit number of 2.82.

05:43Now, let's go back to June 29th year for Sonny Gray four

05:46and a third innings pitch six runs five innings pitch five

05:50runs against the Nationals a week later versus the Cubs

05:52seven innings pitch three earned runs.

05:53That's very good.

05:54But then bounces right back up the Braves seven innings pitch

05:57which you like five earned runs.

05:59You don't last start against the Nationals five innings pitch

06:01five earned runs leaking oil for Sonny Gray.

06:05So if we're just being simple in this you say Donnie, don't

06:07you just test those analytical numbers?

06:09Sometimes you have to line up equally when you're looking

06:11at both sides because Sonny Gray even though he has those

06:14great exfit numbers.

06:16You take a look at his true numbers.

06:17Iso power numbers against his last 105 batters combined

06:20237 way too elevated for me.

06:22Waited on base percentage.

06:23You want that number as a pitcher around 320 or less.

06:26He's sitting at 391.

06:28Give me Imanaga.

06:29Give me that slight price at home.

06:30I'll take the Cubs here due to a pitcher that should be

06:33pitching much better than he is.

06:34We're just not getting the results out of Sonny Gray.

06:37Of course show to Imanaga in his first year in MLB came on

06:41like a barnstormer, but then started to struggle 7 earned

06:44runs given up in his final start in May and the five starts

06:47he made in June 17 total earned runs allowed but in July 4

06:52starts only 7 earned runs allowed.

06:55He is 8 and 2 this year with a 295 ERA DRS before you go

07:01and host the Moneyline.

07:02What's the Hall of Fame game best bet?

07:04Kickoff return for a touchdown, which you cannot bet.

07:07So sit back and relax.

07:08Enjoy that game and just watch.

07:10Take those notes people.

07:11Take the notes.

07:13If we see a kickoff return TD, I think that leads us to an

07:16over out Donnie right side.

07:18Have fun on the Moneyline.

07:20Talk to you tomorrow on the early line.

07:22More TEL next.

MLB Best Bets for Thursday's Slate | Guardians vs Orioles & More

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