MLB: Analyzing the MLB Weekend Matches & Players and Best Bets

SportsGrid

Watch MLB: Analyzing the MLB Weekend Matches & Players and Best Bets - SportsGrid on Dailymotion

Transcript

00:00 the season. Only eight games on a Thursday around Major League

00:06 Baseball, but the beautiful thing about Friday in the bigs

00:09 the weekend sets begin and we break them down for you here

00:13 with a full Friday card around MLB. The Astros were not swept

00:18 by the Seattle Mariners and a four game divisional duel this

00:22 week up in the Pacific Northwest. They won the finale

00:25 of the fourth and final game. The twins won three of four

00:28 against their divisional foe. That being the Kansas City

00:31 Royals at home in Minneapolis. Now we go to Houston where the

00:35 Astros host the twins in game number one of this weekend

00:39 series. Is this Ronald Blanco's first start since he was

00:43 ejected for the sticky stuff for a foreign substance? I

00:46 believe it is right. No second. I don't think it is from that

00:50 ejection. Second start back from that ejection. Either way,

00:53 Ronald Blanco on the bump tonight who has been great this

00:56 year for whatever reason minus 112 now working slightly in

01:00 Houston's favor, but a virtual pick them with a total of eight

01:05 what happens tonight in Houston. You know what's

01:08 interesting about this game, Ben, you take a look at it and

01:10 say to yourself. Okay, Houston is at home picked up a win

01:12 yesterday. They should be competitive right, but

01:14 Minnesota is a decent ball club this year. You see that pick

01:17 them and you say well if I'm just looking at frontline

01:19 starting pitching who you know Blanco not really a frontline

01:22 guy. Pablo Lopez really is, but how about this? Let's take a

01:25 look at his numbers and let's just look at the last 30 days

01:28 just based on his power number weighted on base percentages.

01:31 He's a very good pitcher, but he is leaking some oil a 198

01:34 ISO and a 351 weighted on base percentage lefties, including

01:38 Kyle Tucker, who's in that lineup with an incredible ISO

01:40 power number is a 224 and a 365 weighted on base percentage.

01:44 So you really should be able to club him, but here's the

01:46 interesting part about the analytical approach that does

01:49 come in. Take a look at those last 30 days a 26% strikeout

01:53 rate, which is very good a walk rate of only 2.4. But how

01:56 about this if you're saying alright, how does this equate

01:59 to what we think he can do today? His road splits this

02:03 year. Take a look at this. His ERA on the road, Ben is a six.

02:07 That's unbelievably bad and you're playing in a small

02:10 ballpark, but check this out his X number on the road 2.77.

02:15 So something has to give is it what we've seen with the ERA

02:19 or the analytical numbers telling us he's actually been

02:21 pitching really well just getting unlucky. That's what

02:24 you have to filter in. So if anybody out there saying like

02:27 I don't understand why Pablo Lopez has this price point

02:29 which is only a pick him. He's by far and away the more

02:31 dominant pitcher. He actually hasn't shown that based on ERA,

02:34 but he's due to have one of those games where he could be

02:37 dominant. His exit is telling you that on the road. This is a

02:40 really interesting match up of what you trust the analytical

02:43 numbers or what those numbers are actually showing you on the

02:46 field here, Ben. A divisional duel begins today in Camden

02:51 between the Orioles and the Rays Tampa a game below 500

02:55 Baltimore third best record in the AL second best in the AL

02:58 East only behind the Yankees 35 and 19 minus 148 for the O's

03:04 as the home favorites tonight against the Rays. Will the

03:07 numbers back things up for a Baltimore victory? Baltimore

03:11 should be able to win this game. Let's take a look at

03:13 Savali who over the last 30 days been 106 batters he's

03:16 faced. How about a 234 ISO and a 366 weighted on base

03:20 percentage. It's kind of top of that lineup today for the

03:22 Orioles. Yeah, his name is Gunner Henderson, a 333 ISO

03:25 and a 373 ISO power number against right handed pitchers

03:28 over the past 30 days that fits right into that wheelhouse and

03:32 maybe a great home run chance here. But also when you look at

03:34 Savali statistics here, he is a pitcher that is going to be on

03:38 the road. His splits also similar to what we just saw

03:41 from Pablo Lopez where you're trying to factor in his ISO

03:44 power numbers and his weighted on base percentages, but filter

03:47 them through an X number. If you're just looking at what

03:50 you've done for me lately, it hasn't been good on the field,

03:53 but he actually is getting a little bit unlucky like Lopez

03:56 here where his numbers for his X are much much better than let

03:59 you say what he should be doing era wise, but also which lineup

04:03 are you trusting more here? A lineup that can really get

04:06 after it with the Baltimore Orioles or a pitcher like

04:08 Savali. I understand that high number here and I do think that

04:12 I'm probably trusting what I see a little bit more, which

04:14 means Gunner Henderson, a legitimate chance to hit all

04:16 run Anthony Santander, a 226 ISO going up against right

04:20 handed pitching. Savali has struggled too much for me to

04:23 trust that dog price with Tampa Bay, so I would go towards

04:26 Baltimore with that number. Plus 400 for Gunner Henderson to

04:31 hit a home run Gunner Henderson has 18 of them this year tied

04:35 for the most in MLB alongside Aaron Judge and Kyle Tucker.

04:40 Now we go to Fenway the Red Sox a pretty hefty favorite today

04:43 because Tanner Houck is on the bump and he has been great for

04:46 the Sox this year. Does that continue for Boston tonight?

04:50 Yeah, by the way, Kenta Maeda just take a look at some of

04:52 those early splits that we have. He's got some terrible

04:55 numbers against lefties. Take a look at this on the road, which

04:58 he has been weighted on base percentage 576 to lefties. You

05:02 take a look at that X number 7.28. Take a look at the

05:07 numbers tonight. Duran of and Devers a must have on your card

05:11 tonight for RBI chances against Maeda, one of the worst

05:14 pitchers on the card.

05:17 (upbeat music)

Category

Transcript

Recommended