‘Carina’ may become a typhoon; ‘habagat’ rains to persist in next 2 days

Manila Bulletin

Severe tropical storm “Carina” (international name “Gaemi”) continued to intensify steadily offshore and may become a typhoon within the next 12 hours, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in its 11 a.m. bulletin on Monday, July 22.  READ MORE: https://mb.com.ph/2024/7/22/carina-may-become-a-typhoon-habagat-rains-to-persist-in-next-2-days

Transcript

00:00This is our latest satellite animation, and as of 10 in the morning, this typhoon Karina was last seen.

00:07355 kilometers to the east of Trigarao City, Cagayan.

00:12It brought the maximum sustained winds of 110 kilometers per hour, close to its center,

00:18and a gust of up to 135 kilometers per hour.

00:22This is still slow, moving at low speed, at a speed of only 15 kilometers per hour.

00:29This typhoon Karina, plus its enhanced southwest monsoon,

00:34is causing heavy rainfall in a large part of our country.

00:37If we notice in our latest satellite animation,

00:40almost the entire Luzon will be clouded for today.

00:43The same goes for the part of Visayas, the western Visayas, Negros Island region,

00:48and there is also a high chance of rain.

00:50Up to here, it has Basilan, Sulu-Tawi-Tawi, and Zamboanga Peninsula.

00:56This is the latest track of forecast regarding the typhoon Karina.

01:00We expect it to move to the north within the next 24 hours,

01:06and possibly by tomorrow morning, it will be at 385 kilometers east of Calayan, Cagayan.

01:12When Wednesday morning arrives, it is possible that it will be in the north east of Itbayat, Batanes,

01:18at around 360 kilometers.

01:20After that, it is possible for it to pass through Ryukyu Islands, southern Japan,

01:25and head to the northern portion of Taiwan,

01:28at the same time as the Philippine Area of Responsibility.

01:32On Thursday morning, its approximate location is more than 500 kilometers north of Itbayat, Batanes.

01:40Based on our latest forecast track,

01:43there is a very low chance that it will hit our land, its center.

01:47If we notice, even our cone of probability does not hit our land.

01:54However, if we notice this yellow circle,

01:58it is associated with strong winds or strong winds,

02:02which have a direct effect of this typhoon Karina.

02:04So, we can expect that it will hit the northern part of Cagayan Valley

02:09in the following days, particularly in eastern Isabela,

02:13in the eastern Cagayan, as well as the Mabuyan Islands, as well as Batanes.

02:18When it comes to intensity, it is possible that later tonight, it will become a typhoon category.

02:24So, it may rise in the following days,

02:28while it is in the North Philippine Sea, where this ocean is hot,

02:31and until it leaves the Philippine Area of Responsibility,

02:34it will remain as a typhoon.

02:39In terms of wind, we can expect one or signal number one,

02:43here in Cagayan Valley, as well as Batanes,

02:46eastern portion of mainland Cagayan, as well as the towns of Santa Ana,

02:50Gataran, Bagao, Peña, Blanca, Lalo, and Gonzaga.

02:55Signal number one also in the eastern portion of the Mabuyan Islands,

02:58particularly the islands of Camiguin and Mabuyan,

03:02and also here in the northeastern portion of Isabela,

03:05in Divilacan, Palanan, and Makunakon, we have signal number one.

03:09So, it means that today and tomorrow,

03:11it is possible for the wind to blow,

03:14the direct effect of this typhoon, Carina.

03:18When it comes to rain,

03:20mainly southwest Monsoon or Habagat,

03:22it will cause strong rains.

03:25We have already raised the orange warning as of 11 in the morning,

03:28here in the province of Romblon, in the southern Luzon,

03:32and we expect that in the next three hours,

03:35there will also be heavy to intense rains,

03:38while we have heavy rains in the next three hours,

03:42in other areas of Luzon, like Zambales,

03:45Bataan, Cavite, Batangas, Oriental Mindoro,

03:49also in the eastern side, in Albay, in Bicol,

03:53there is also a yellow warning,

03:55Aklan, Antique, up to here in Capi, in Western Visayas,

03:59we will have strong rains in the next three hours.

04:02And we are not losing the chance

04:04that we will have heavy rainfall warnings

04:06in other parts of Luzon,

04:09including Metro Manila,

04:10later in the afternoon, until the evening,

04:12so stay tuned to our

04:14Heavy Rainfall Warnings and Rainfall Advisories

04:18on our Facebook page and on our official website.

04:21In Romblon, we are alerting our countrymen

04:24because the floods are increasing,

04:26while the chances of floods are also increasing

04:29in the low-lying areas,

04:30in the areas we mentioned,

04:31where there are yellow rainfall warnings.

04:35If earlier was like a real-time forecast

04:38in terms of heavy rain,

04:39this is our estimated rainfall per day

04:42in the next three days.

04:44We have 100 to 200 mm of possible rain for today,

04:49so it means heavy to intense rains

04:52until later in the evening in Zambales,

04:54Bataan, and Occidental, Mindoro.

04:57So those are also the areas

04:58where there will likely be heavy rainfall warnings.

05:00We also have 50 to 100 mm

05:03of moderate to heavy rains

05:05possible for today

05:07in Northern and Eastern Cagayan,

05:09as well as in the Baboyan Islands,

05:10and in Eastern Isabela,

05:12because of the Bagyong Karina,

05:14while this part of Luzon,

05:16as well as the Ilocos Region,

05:18Apayao, Abra, Benguet,

05:20Tarlac, Nueva Ecija,

05:22Pampanga, Bulacan, Metro Manila,

05:26we have moderate to heavy rains,

05:28Calabarzon, Ollantal, Mindoro,

05:30Marinduque, Romblon, Aclan, Antique,

05:34and Hilagampalawan,

05:35as well as the Calamian Islands.

05:37By tomorrow,

05:38it is possible for there to be

05:39stronger rainfall in Batanes,

05:41and the rainfall in Zambales,

05:44Bataan, Occidental, Mindoro,

05:46and also heavy to intense rains tomorrow

05:48in the Ilocos Region, Abra,

05:51and Benguet in the Cordillera Region.

05:53By tomorrow,

05:54it is possible for there to be

05:55moderate to heavy rains.

05:56Almost all of the areas

05:58that we mentioned earlier,

05:59that will have moderate to heavy rains today,

06:03including Northern Cagayan,

06:05Apayao, Calinga, Mountain Province,

06:07Ifugao, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija,

06:10Pampanga, and Bulacan,

06:12Metro Manila,

06:13tomorrow, it is possible for there to be

06:14moderate to heavy rains.

06:15Rizal, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas,

06:18Oriental Mindoro,

06:20Romblon, Aklan, Antique,

06:22and Northern Palawan

06:23as well as Cuyo and Calamian Islands.

06:25And by Wednesday,

06:27while this typhoon Carina is moving away,

06:30it is still enhancing our forecast.

06:32That is why we are still hoping

06:34for heavy to intense rains

06:36in the areas that are on the western side

06:39of Luzon,

06:40from Ilocos Region,

06:41down to Abra, Benguet, Zambales,

06:43Bataan, and Occidental, Mindoro.

06:46While there are still showers,

06:48because of the storm Carina,

06:51here in Metro Manila,

06:52it is still possible for moderate to heavy rains

06:55in Apayao, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija,

06:57Pampanga, Bulacan,

06:59Rizal, Cavite, Batangas,

07:01and Calamian Islands.

07:04That is why,

07:05we continue to remind our fellowmen

07:07to coordinate

07:08with your local

07:09Disaster Reduction and Management offices

07:12if they need to evacuate.

07:14And because there is a high chance

07:16of flooding in low-lying areas,

07:18flooding of rivers,

07:19flooding of rivers,

07:21and possibly,

07:22because of continuous rains,

07:24it will also cause landslides,

07:26especially in mountainous areas.

07:28There is a high chance

07:29that in elevated or mountainous areas,

07:32we will have enhanced rains.

07:38Aside from heavy rains,

07:40it is possible for severe winds,

07:42not only here in storm Carina,

07:44but also in the Southwest Monsoon.

07:46If we have strong winds,

07:48we will also expect high waves.

07:51We will show that later.

07:52But for today,

07:53we expect strong winds

07:55in Zambales, Bataan,

07:57Aurora,

07:58Mimaropa,

07:59Bicol Region,

08:00Western Visayas,

08:02Northern Samar,

08:03and Northern portion of Samar.

08:05Tomorrow,

08:06we will also experience floods

08:08in Ilocos Region,

08:10Zambales,

08:11Bataan,

08:12Aurora,

08:13Metro Manila,

08:14we will also experience floods

08:15in Dulot ng Habagat,

08:16Calabarzon,

08:17Mimaropa,

08:18Bicol Region,

08:19and Western Visayas.

08:21By Wednesday,

08:22we will still experience floods

08:24in the Southwest Monsoon,

08:25not because of storm Carina,

08:27but in Ilocos Region,

08:28Abra,

08:29Benguet,

08:30Nueva Vizcaya,

08:31Quirino,

08:32up to Isabela,

08:34Central Luzon,

08:35Metro Manila,

08:36Calabarzon,

08:37Mimaropa,

08:39Bicol Region,

08:40and up to Visayas,

08:42it is possible to experience floods.

08:46And because of strong winds

08:48in the next few days,

08:49it is also possible

08:50to experience high waves.

08:52These are hand-in-hand

08:53the effects of winds

08:54and waves.

08:55We will have

08:56Moderator of Seas

08:57just now

08:58here in Luzon

08:59and Western portion of Visayas.

09:01Up to three and a half meters

09:03in the areas

09:04closest to the storm,

09:05Cagayan Valley,

09:06from Batanes

09:09to the eastern side of Luzon,

09:11in Bicol Region,

09:12three and a half meters

09:13is equivalent

09:14to one floor of a house.

09:16Here in the Western Seaboard,

09:18in the West Philippine Sea,

09:19we expect 1.5 to 3 meters

09:22of waves,

09:23especially in the areas

09:24of Occidental Mindoro

09:25and Palawan

09:26where the waves are strong.

09:28We have up to three meters

09:29here in Sulusi

09:30and in Western Visayas.

09:32It will also be part

09:33of Negros Island Region.

09:35While here in Visayas

09:36and Mindanao,

09:38it is one and a half

09:39to two meters

09:41high waves.

09:42It is dangerous

09:43for small sea vessels.

09:44We can say that

09:45because there is no

09:46gale warning,

09:47our sea travel suspensions

09:48are less likely

09:49except in the areas

09:51with signal number one.

09:53Automatically,

09:54our sea travel is suspended

09:55there.

09:56But in other areas,

09:57as of 11 in the morning,

09:58it is still not there.

09:59But then,

10:00we will continue

10:01because it is possible

10:02that later in the afternoon

10:03to night,

10:04our waves are increasing

10:05so it is also possible

10:06for the sea travel

10:07suspensions.

10:10We will repeat,

10:11regarding the track

10:12of Baguio Carina,

10:13it will be moving

10:14to the north

10:15starting now

10:16until Tuesday

10:17or until tomorrow.

10:18Then eventually,

10:19it will move

10:20north-westward

10:21or north-east

10:22in the direction

10:23of the southern

10:24islands of Japan,

10:25northern Taiwan,

10:26until the Philippine

10:27Area of Responsibility

10:28is released

10:29and by Friday,

10:30it will reach

10:31the southeastern

10:32portion of China.

10:35In terms of its track

10:37here in the Philippines,

10:38the chance of it

10:39hitting our land

10:40is still very low.

10:41Its center,

10:42even its full diameter

10:43of 300-350 kilometers,

10:44is only the northern

10:45part of Cagayan Valley

10:46that will be directly

10:47affected

10:48by this Baguio Carina.

10:49And it will be released

10:50when it reaches

10:51Wednesday night

10:52but it will still remain

10:53for the next

10:54two to three days.

10:55And we expect

10:56the strength

10:57of this Baguio Carina

10:58later in the evening

10:59it might become

11:00a typhoon

11:01and even stronger

11:02possible

11:03as a strong storm

11:04that will

11:05hit

11:06the Philippine

11:07Area

11:08as soon as possible

11:09as a strong typhoon

11:10for the next

11:1124 to 48 hours.

11:12But the chance

11:13of it becoming

11:14a super typhoon

11:15is still low

11:16for now.

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