UBS Tarif AS 60% Pangkas Pertumbuhan PDB China

IDXchannel

UBS group menunjukkan tarif baru sebesar 60%, terhadap seluruh ekspor China ke Amerika Serikat akan mengurangi lebih dari separuh tingkat pertemuan tahunan China. Hal ini menggaris bawahi resiko bagi China, jika mantan presiden Donald Trump kembali ke Gedung Putih.

Transcript

00:00We go to the next information, a new study from the UBS Group shows that the new tariff of 60% of China's exports to the United States

00:08will reduce more than half of China's annual growth.

00:12This puts China at risk if former President Donald Trump returns to the White House.

00:22Quoted from various sources of the UBS Group, Wang Tao said

00:26If this scenario occurs, it will cut 2.5% of China's GDP in the next year.

00:33The calculation is based on the assumption that some of the trade is done by third countries,

00:39and China does not pay, as well as other countries that do not cooperate with the United States in forestry.

00:45Half of the hindrance comes from the decrease in exports, while the rest comes from consumption and investment.

00:52Exports have been a strong driver of growth this year,

00:55contributing 14% of China's pre-economic expansion,

00:59and trade surplus reached the highest record last month.

01:02But the strength of exports has triggered complaints from trade partners,

01:06because more and more countries are using tariffs.

01:09China's retaliation can also increase the impact of tariffs because it will increase import costs.

01:13UBS estimates that China's economy will grow by 4.6% next year,

01:18and 4.2% in 2026.

01:21The figure will decrease to 3%,

01:24although there is a stimulus to reduce the impact of each war of tariffs.

01:29As previously announced by the Washington Post,

01:33former US President Donald Trump said,

01:36if re-elected in the November election,

01:39Trump plans to increase trade between the US and China,

01:43one of which is considering a plan to win a tariff of 60% or higher for Chinese goods.

01:49Sources for IDX News

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