Russia has 'momentum' on their side: West's 'lack of pace, determination have dragged Ukraine back'
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00:00The war rages on in Ukraine in spite of a major international summit at the weekend
00:07aimed at finding a pathway to peace.
00:09This Monday, day 845 of the war, there are reports of Russian shelling of Ukraine's Poltava
00:15region, 12 people including children injured as the bombardment took out power supply to
00:20over 50,000 homes.
00:21Over the weekend, while the conference was taking place in Switzerland, Russian forces
00:25took a village in Ukraine's Zaporizhia region.
00:29Ukraine's forces there are held back by shortages of arms and ammunition.
00:33Meanwhile over the northeast Ukraine border, Russia's Belgorod region has been hit.
00:38The governor there says at least five people were killed in Ukrainian cross-border shelling.
00:42Much of this a consequence of Russia stepping up its attacks throughout May on the region
00:47of Kharkiv and on the city itself.
00:51Ukraine's war effort, the act of trying to push back the full-scale invasion of the country
00:55launched by Vladimir Putin on February 24, 2022, has been hampered by delays in funding
01:01and arms supply from the West.
01:03Let's hear from NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
01:08Since Russia's full-scale invasion, NATO Allies have provided unprecedented levels of support.
01:17This has been indispensable for Ukrainians to fight back and survive as a sovereign nation.
01:24But this winter and spring, we saw serious delays and gaps in delivering support, with
01:31consequences on the front line.
01:35We cannot let this happen again.
01:39At the peace summit in Switzerland, 80 countries signed up to a recognition of Ukraine's territorial
01:43integrity of 1991, the year the Soviet Union collapsed and Ukraine declared independence.
01:49Let's bring in Anatia Seskeria, who is an Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services
01:53Institute.
01:54Anatia, thank you very much for being with us here on France 24.
01:56We always appreciate your time.
01:58Interesting, looking at the countries that didn't sign up to that accord, India, Indonesia,
02:03Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Thailand, the United Arab Emirates.
02:08What do you make of this kind of split?
02:11Thank you very much for having me.
02:12First of all, it's good to be back.
02:15Well, it's clear that there are some divisions.
02:18I guess the success of the summit is that it still managed to get together over a hundred
02:24delegations from the countries, from different countries, and the so-called Global South
02:28was also heavily represented during the summit.
02:32However, we see that there are clear divisions when it comes to unanimous support to Ukraine.
02:38India, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Thailand, Indonesia, United Arab Emirates
02:44attended the summit, but we haven't seen these names being represented as signatories
02:52of this joint communique, which was an important document that countries agreed to sign in
03:01order to express further support to Ukraine and the fundamental principles of the international
03:07law.
03:08A lot of, I think, the reasons behind these countries' decisions vary because some of
03:14these countries are the members of the BRICS.
03:17Some of them have very close trade and economic relationship with Russia, and we have seen
03:24some official statements.
03:25For example, India mentions that they believe that the peace in Ukraine requires bringing
03:31together all parties, including Russia, which as we know was not represented during this
03:36summit.
03:38They had no willingness to be represented there, of course.
03:41Similar reason was mentioned by Saudi Arabia, for example, but when it comes to South Africa,
03:46the reason behind their decision to abstain from signing this document was completely
03:54different.
03:55They argued that the presence of Israel was in a way showing some sort of double standards
04:02when it comes to commitment to international and respect to international law.
04:08President Volodymyr Zelensky says that talks with Russia could start tomorrow if Russia
04:12pulls out of occupied Ukrainian territory.
04:16That's really the crux of the matter, isn't it, because we're in a situation where one
04:21side wants one thing, the other side wants another thing, and the two have, well, no
04:25common ground except that ground that they are fighting over.
04:28Absolutely.
04:29And I think the main reason why this summit cannot be a success or any discussions when
04:34it comes to bringing peace to Ukraine is Russia, of course, that has started the war in the
04:40first place.
04:41And we have seen even prior to the beginning of the summit, Putin mentioned that he has
04:46no willingness to accept any sort of deal unless it involves Ukrainian capitulation,
04:54which of course is a no deal and no country would ever agree on these terms that Russia
05:00presents as a potential solution to this conflict.
05:03So the main reason is, of course, Vladimir Putin's aspirations and aims to basically
05:10destroy Ukraine.
05:12And of course, it's very important to bring as many countries as possible together.
05:17And I think the main reason why Zelensky was so optimistic about this summit was to
05:25show a vast majority of countries backing Ukraine and putting pressure on Russia.
05:33But I don't see it as an immediate solution to the war when Putin is very much committed
05:40to destroying Ukraine through military force.
05:44And that is extremely clear and has been clear since February the 24th of 2022.
05:49Nadia Putin commenting over the weekend that his terms for peace would be that Kyiv has
05:55to cede more land, Ukrainian troops must retreat further, and Kyiv has to drop its NATO membership
06:02ambitions.
06:03Again, another sign that there is just too big a gap between these two sides.
06:09Absolutely.
06:10This is just a reiteration of this so-called denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine,
06:16which Putin has been arguing for more than two and a half years and proposing as a potential
06:22solution for stopping Russians further invading Ukrainian territory.
06:27And this is, of course, this cannot be accepted by President Zelensky or by any leader who
06:34wants its country to remain sovereign and to remain sovereign and independent, because
06:42this fundamentally violates the international law.
06:46And, of course, there is no if Putin emerges out of this two and a half years of war effort
06:53victorious, then, of course, the main question is what is the limit to his ambitions?
07:00Because I certainly do not believe that Ukraine is the endgame in this case.
07:06Do you believe, Nadia, that other states, including states in Europe, will be under threat?
07:12Yes, possibly.
07:15Maybe not when it comes to NATO allies.
07:18It's not an immediate threat as much as it is for Moldova, for example, and for other
07:24countries such as Georgia, Armenia that want and have aspirations to be more aligned with
07:33the European Union, with the West, rather than to side with Russia.
07:37And that is a real threat for this country.
07:39So, of course, and in a future perspective, weakening NATO is, of course, one of the main
07:48aims that Putin is very much determined to accomplish.
07:52Is this all part of what has been referred to as Putin's kind of empire building?
07:58Obviously, the collapse of the Soviet Union from 89 to 1991 led to the breakup of the
08:03Soviet Union as Putin knew it.
08:06I think he stated that there are various lands that really are Russian lands.
08:09He wants to take them back.
08:11Is this essentially what he's trying to do, trying to reconstruct the Soviet Union?
08:15Well, yes, in a way, yes.
08:17And we have seen a couple of days ago when former President Medvedev posted this map
08:24of Russia that included Ukraine, full territory of Ukraine as being Russian.
08:30This is very much in line with Russian vision, and it does not only include Ukraine.
08:36They believe that the so-called post-Soviet states are still, Russia still has and should
08:43have leverage on the states and should have a say when it comes to these countries'
08:49determination to whether they want to be, whether they want to side with Russia or with
08:57the European Union, for example.
08:58And they certainly believe that the choice is clear because Russia has and should have
09:06influence within this region.
09:08And I think that is basically Putin's vision, and Ukraine is definitely a crucial element
09:14to accomplishing this vision.
09:17Indeed, as you point out, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, all with that ambition of being part
09:22of the European Union.
09:24Jens Stoltenberg earlier speaking about the delays in supplying weapons, Russia trying
09:31to advance, as we understand it, before Ukraine gets a delivery of F-16 jets.
09:38This supply and the overreaching demand of Ukraine's military in order to carry on with
09:44this resistance of the Russian invasion.
09:47This is really the existential question, isn't it?
09:49How much can the West supply?
09:51How quickly can it get there?
09:53Well, the delay has been extremely damaging for Ukraine's war effort, and we know that
09:58even today, even though finally the decision has been made within the U.S. to finally deliver
10:07this crucial military support to Ukraine, still the lack of pace and lack of determination
10:15in certain ways have really dragged Ukraine back.
10:20And this is a real problem because Russia is very much willing to put as much effort
10:27as it takes to advance militarily.
10:31And more they advance and more land they grab, of course, they will have, will be, even when
10:38it comes to negotiations, they will have a certain momentum on their side.
10:42And even when it comes to convincing other countries that may not have a clear positioning
10:49when it comes to siding towards Ukraine or towards Russia, that is a very crucial element
10:55because some countries, even now, when they were making a decision whether or not to sign
11:00this communique, they were looking at the situation on the ground.
11:05It is not clear, unfortunately, that Ukraine is winning the war.
11:10And many would argue that quite contrary in the last past few months, we have been seeing
11:15that Russia has been pushing forward even more stronger than before.
11:22Nonetheless, the summit a qualified success, I think we can agree in Switzerland this weekend.
11:27Natia, thank you for joining us as always.
11:29Natia Skouria, Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute.
11:32Thank you, Natia, for your analysis.
11:34Thank you for watching this à propos.
11:36Do stay with us here on France 24.