This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond, dated 23/04/2024
We take a look at why it’s a bit chilly this week and at how the more unsettled weather we can expect this weekend is developing. As well as this there are some impactful rain events happening around the world which we delve into.
Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Alex Burkill.
We take a look at why it’s a bit chilly this week and at how the more unsettled weather we can expect this weekend is developing. As well as this there are some impactful rain events happening around the world which we delve into.
Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Alex Burkill.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00 It's a bit chilly this week, especially considering it is now the middle of spring.
00:05 I'll be looking at why temperatures are going to be below average for the time of
00:09 year, as well as the rest of the weather we can expect across the UK through the next
00:13 week or so.
00:14 I'll also be taking a look at various areas of interesting weather going on around the
00:19 world.
00:20 Hello, welcome to your latest Met Office Deep Dive.
00:22 I'm Alex Burkill, meteorologist and presenter here, coming to you from our headquarters
00:27 in Exeter.
00:28 We issue these Deep Dives every Tuesday and they are exclusive on YouTube.
00:32 But let's get going and like I said, we're going to look at why it's a bit chilly at
00:36 the moment, starting off looking at our bigger picture.
00:39 And we do have high pressure across the UK.
00:42 Well, actually not quite across the UK, just to the northwest of us, and its position is
00:46 pretty important.
00:47 We're actually under something called an omega block.
00:51 It's called this because of the shape in the pattern.
00:53 You can see we have low pressure out towards Canada and low pressure out towards Scandinavia,
00:58 and then high pressure in the middle.
01:00 And because of this pattern, the shape that the jet stream, the flow is making, makes
01:04 that omega shape.
01:06 Now with an omega block and other blocking patterns, they can stick around for a little
01:10 while, could be several days, could be weeks, well, a few into a few weeks or so, and we
01:15 could get stuck under that weather pattern.
01:18 Sometimes when the high pressure is across the UK, that would lead to a very calm, settled
01:23 picture, lots of sunshine perhaps.
01:25 And we could get a bit of an easterly wind, so that could lead to some decent warmth.
01:29 But as it is, because the high pressure is just to the northwest, we're dragging in,
01:33 you can see the jet coming down from the north, and we are dragging in our air from the north.
01:38 And as you would expect, that is a chilly direction.
01:41 So we have some cold air around, particularly across eastern parts at the moment, but we
01:46 are going to see that cold air pushing its way in.
01:48 If I zoom in a little bit towards the UK, we are going to see that cold air becoming
01:54 a bit more widespread as we go through Wednesday into Thursday.
01:57 So we're actually going to see our temperatures dropping even further.
02:00 Whilst we're looking at our temperatures, and I think it's interesting to look at what's
02:04 happening quite close by, but across parts of Europe, there are also below average temperatures
02:10 here.
02:11 In fact, across parts of France, temperatures for a good week or so have been around four
02:15 to five degrees below average.
02:17 They've had some frosty nights.
02:19 That's had quite an impact on people growing things, particularly the vineyards.
02:23 So there could be a bit of an impact on wine production.
02:26 Worth noting that cold spells in April aren't unheard of.
02:29 For example, again, looking at France, both 2022 and 2023, April's were colder than average.
02:36 But I think what's exceptional about this cold spell is that it's coming after a record
02:42 breaking warmth earlier on in the season, and that it has lasted for quite a length
02:47 of time already.
02:48 Back to the UK, though, and if we look at the weather that we can expect.
02:52 So let's get rid of our temperatures, and instead we'll put our rainfall on.
02:57 And because of low pressure generally towards the east of us, as we go through the next
03:02 couple of days, it's always going to be towards eastern areas where we're going to see perhaps
03:07 more frequent showers and some blustery winds towards eastern coastal parts in particular,
03:11 a bit more settled, lighter winds further west.
03:14 Still a few showers possible, but not as many as further east.
03:17 I might zoom in a little bit more just to make this all a bit clearer.
03:22 And it's a similar picture as we go through Wednesday into Thursday.
03:26 Worth bearing in mind, we have some calm nights to come generally.
03:29 So both tonight into Wednesday, we go back to Wednesday morning, you can see generally
03:34 fine away from the blustery east, it will be quite calm.
03:37 And so where there are any clear skies, it's likely to turn pretty chilly.
03:41 Could be some frost around, perhaps a bit more frost than there was this morning through
03:44 Tuesday morning.
03:46 And then that cold thing continues as we go through Wednesday into Thursday.
03:49 Feeling a bit cool by day and then pretty chilly overnight, especially for the time
03:54 of year.
03:55 So I think particularly Thursday morning, that's probably going to be the coldest period
03:59 of this week.
04:00 So more places waking up to a touch of frost, especially away from the east northeast where
04:05 we still have some blustery winds elsewhere where we have clear skies that will allow
04:09 for a touch of frost to fall a form in more sheltered rural spots.
04:14 Otherwise, and as we go through Thursday, you have a few showers around and then well,
04:19 my data swap swaps to global.
04:21 So this isn't as high res as it is a bit coarser.
04:23 So it doesn't quite grasp the showers in the same way.
04:26 So don't take this too literally in terms of position.
04:28 But there is some showery rain around to come as we go through Thursday into Friday.
04:33 Our attention really, though, has to turn to this area of low pressure.
04:36 And actually, I'm going to dart back a little bit and see how this develops.
04:41 So if we start off looking towards Greenland and the important thing when it comes to this
04:46 area of low pressure that comes through as we go towards the weekend is it hasn't yet
04:50 formed.
04:51 And that's important because I'm going to get rid of the rain just to make it clearer
04:56 and the winds as well.
04:58 Because it hasn't formed yet, that increases the uncertainty.
05:01 It reduces our confidence in exactly how it's going to develop.
05:05 But nonetheless, we are expecting an area of low pressure to develop somewhere around
05:09 Greenland as we go through into tomorrow.
05:12 So it is this I think it's this area of low pressure here that's developing as we go through
05:17 Wednesday just to the east of Greenland.
05:20 And then it pushes its way southeastwards towards the UK as we go through Thursday into
05:25 Friday.
05:26 Then I'll put my rain back on as we go through Friday.
05:29 It dips down towards the west and pushes southwards before then changing direction and pushing
05:36 back northwards as we go through this weekend.
05:39 And as a result, we're likely to see a more unsettled spell as we go into the weekend.
05:46 So there's, yes, a few showers around at the moment, not a huge amount, but yes, a few
05:50 mainly towards the east and a few dotted around elsewhere.
05:53 And then there'll be some showery rain to end the week too.
05:56 But I think into the weekend, Saturday and more so Sunday, we're going to see some more
06:00 unsettled weather pushing its way in.
06:01 It won't be especially windy, perhaps towards some coastal areas.
06:06 There'll be some strong gusts at times, perhaps gales around coastal parts, but nothing too
06:11 windy.
06:12 But we are at risk of seeing some hefty, perhaps even thundery rain pushing its way through.
06:18 So in terms of warnings, well, we don't have any at the moment.
06:20 It's too far away.
06:21 Like I said, there's a fair amount of uncertainty because that low pressure hasn't even developed
06:26 yet.
06:27 But we may need to issue some thunderstorm warnings, perhaps some rain warnings as we
06:31 could be looking at around 25 millimetres in just a couple of hours if you see an intense
06:36 thunderstorm pushing through, like I said, most likely on Sunday.
06:39 Couldn't even rule out a wind warning in some coastal spots because there could be some
06:44 gales.
06:45 But I have seen some reports on social media and some of, in some places that there's going
06:50 to be a named storm.
06:51 That looks pretty unlikely.
06:54 Possibly Meteo France around the French coasts.
06:57 There could be some strong gusts there.
06:59 They may need to issue a name for this feature.
07:02 But I think for the UK itself, we probably won't.
07:05 Can't rule it out.
07:06 There's still that amount of uncertainty.
07:07 But I think it is going to be a bit more unsettled this weekend than it has been recently, particularly
07:12 with the risk of some heavy, perhaps even thundery downpours pushing their way through.
07:18 With the rain, though, we are also going to see our temperatures rising.
07:21 So if I put on the 850 temperature layer again and you can see, although we had some colder
07:29 air, if I just go back to Wednesday and you can see it was the blues indicating that we
07:34 have very cold air across us at the moment or as we go through the middle of the week.
07:38 And then it turns much milder, much warmer as we go towards the weekend.
07:41 Obviously, with the thundery rain around, it won't feel particularly pleasant.
07:45 But temperatures are going to rise as we go through this week.
07:49 We can look at that in a different way if we just pick somewhere in the south, somewhere
07:53 towards London, perhaps.
07:55 And you can see temperatures at the moment, low, high single figures, low double digits
08:00 picking up a little bit by Thursday.
08:02 I think the coldest air will be across us Wednesday night into Thursday.
08:07 By the time we get to Thursday itself, temperatures starting to creep up.
08:09 But by the weekend, that's when there's a good chance that we'll be back into the mid-high
08:13 teens across many places.
08:15 And it's a similar story further north in as much as just the delay is slightly different.
08:21 So yeah, temperatures dropping down, but then picking up again as we go through into the
08:26 weekend.
08:30 The other thing then about the weather that we have in the UK as we go through this week
08:34 is what's going to happen thereafter.
08:37 And so just to recap, we're likely to end Saturday into Sunday with a pretty unsettled
08:44 note.
08:45 Low pressure is likely to be across us, not the deepest area of low pressure, but nonetheless
08:48 an unsettled spell.
08:50 And that low does look like it could linger for a little while as we go into next week.
08:54 So more unsettled weather to come.
08:56 Not a total washout.
08:57 There will be some drier periods in between.
09:00 I wouldn't take the position timing of this literally at this stage, but there will be
09:04 some drier weather around.
09:06 But generally, I think low pressure is going to dominate as we go through into next week.
09:11 There is high pressure towards the Azores trying to develop and there's high pressure
09:14 towards the northeast of us.
09:16 I think that one, the one towards the northeast, perhaps more likely to win out as we go through
09:20 next week.
09:21 So maybe we'll see something a bit drier towards northern parts and more unsettled towards
09:26 southern areas as we go through next week.
09:28 But kind of clutching at straws at details generally there.
09:31 I think what I can be a bit more confident about is that temperatures will be higher
09:35 than they have been through this week.
09:36 It's chilly at the moment.
09:37 It will be close to average for the time of year next week.
09:41 If you want more information about what we can expect over the next two weeks or so,
09:45 do check out our 14 day outlook.
09:47 I will be updating that this evening.
09:49 You can find that on our app.
09:51 If you scroll down and go for the UK long range forecast, then you can see our 14 day
09:56 outlooks, which are updated every Tuesday and Friday.
09:59 So do check that out if you want to know a bit more about what we can expect looking
10:02 that little bit further ahead.
10:05 But right, let's move on and let's look around the world, some things that are happening
10:10 in various other places.
10:13 And let's go back to Wednesday.
10:15 And let's start off in the US because across central parts of America and then initially
10:22 across central parts and then as we go through Thursday, pushing into more into the Midwest,
10:28 we're going to see the risk of some severe thunderstorms kicking off.
10:32 And in this part of the world, that brings the risk of some tornadoes, some very large
10:36 hail, strong gusty winds and some downpours, too.
10:40 There could be 50 to 75 millimeters of rain in just a few hours, which could cause some
10:45 significant disruptions.
10:46 So a pretty unsettled spell of weather across parts of America as we go through this week.
10:53 Heading further south, then there's also some heavy seasonal rain affecting parts of South
10:58 America across parts of Ecuador, Panama and Colombia and Costa Rica.
11:05 We're seeing heavy seasonal rainfall as we go through this week.
11:09 We're looking at the risk of 100 to 150 millimeters in just a day, perhaps 350 millimeters over
11:16 the week or so, particularly across parts of Colombia and Ecuador.
11:21 That's where we're most likely to see the highest rainfall totals.
11:24 That brings the risk of flash flooding and other issues, landslides, etc.
11:28 And so that's going to cause some problems here.
11:31 As well as this, there's heavy seasonal rainfall affecting parts of Africa.
11:35 I'm going to zoom out because it will take me too long to get to eastern Africa.
11:40 Otherwise, across parts of Uganda, Tanzania, South Kenya, again, heavy seasonal rainfall.
11:48 There's been a lot of rainfall through recent days, recent weeks here, and that is continuing.
11:53 Notice the heaviest rains likely to be out over the ocean, but around coastal districts,
11:58 there's a potential for 150, 200 millimeters in some places, and that's likely to cause
12:04 some further issues.
12:05 There's already been a significant amount of river flooding, and that could be made
12:09 worse because of this heavy rain that is just going to continue.
12:12 Now, it's not unusual for them to get heavy rain in this area.
12:17 It's seasonal rain, but this is a sort of one in 20 year event and just goes to show
12:22 that it is going to be very heavy, and that's why it's causing some impacts.
12:27 But perhaps the heaviest, most impactful rain this week is across parts of Asia, into Myanmar,
12:34 into parts of Japan, but also Taiwan, and particularly into China, southeastern China
12:40 especially.
12:41 This is where we're going to see the heaviest rain this week.
12:44 If we go through and you can just see some pretty high rainfall totals building up.
12:49 And actually, if I show you that in a different way, and if I use my rainfall totals map,
12:55 which I believe, here we go, and I will zoom out because otherwise getting from the UK
13:02 to China is going to take me a long time.
13:07 And if I head over, and so these are my rolling totals as I go through this week.
13:13 If I just go to the very end and you can see some pretty intense rainfall totals in this
13:18 area, this wave, this line of heavy rain, but particularly across southeastern China,
13:24 that's where we could be looking at around 600 millimeters perhaps in some places, possibly
13:29 even a bit more, which is around two to three times the April average.
13:34 And so unsurprising, we're already seeing some impacts from the heavy rain here, and
13:38 we're going to see some further impacts from the intense rain as we go through this week.
13:42 So that is really going to cause some fairly significant problems.
13:46 But that's enough for what's going on UK wide and worldwide, weather-wise at the moment.
13:52 I thought I'd take a little bit look back at what's happened so far this April, this
13:55 spring, this season, and this year, because many of us have been saying just how wet it's
14:00 been.
14:01 It seems like the rain's been pretty relentless.
14:02 It hasn't been especially heavy all that often, but we have had a lot of wet days.
14:07 But starting off then, and I wanted to compare what we've seen so far this year with previous
14:14 years.
14:15 And if you've seen this chart before, you'll know, but in case you haven't, what we have
14:20 there, the black line with the blue shading underneath it shows this year, 2024, up to
14:24 this stage, so it goes up until mid to late April, and it compares it to previous years.
14:30 The orange line is the wettest year on record at this stage in the year.
14:35 The black line in the middle is the average, the greys are the shading, and the blue line
14:39 is the driest year.
14:40 But what you can see is, yes, apart from an initially dry spell during January, rainfall
14:46 has been higher than average.
14:48 And as we've gone through February, March, and into April, it's become significantly
14:53 wetter than average for this stage in the year, but not quite reaching record levels
14:58 for this stage in the year.
15:00 And it's sort of plateaued out a little bit because of the drier spell that we've had
15:04 for a little while.
15:05 If we look at that a bit closer, if we pick spring, for example, same chart this time,
15:10 but just looking at March, April, May, and again, you can see, yeah, there was something
15:15 a little bit drier for a time in March, but then rainfall totals have really built up
15:19 as we've gone through this season, and they've become pretty close to being the wettest spring
15:24 on record at this stage, but not quite, haven't quite reached that level.
15:29 However, it has, like I said, leveled out a bit recently.
15:33 Obviously, with the more unsettled weather to come this weekend and into next week, you
15:37 would expect that to shoot up a little bit, but probably not going to quite get to that
15:42 record level.
15:43 So it's been a wet spring so far, but probably not going to be the wettest spring on record.
15:47 If we look at April, though, and actually at some stages in this month, for that stage
15:54 in the month, it was the wettest on record.
15:57 Around the middle of the month, 14th, 15th, on my birthday, it was pretty much close or
16:01 pretty much on the level for the record for the wettest point in April.
16:06 And actually around the 18th, I think that is, it was actually a little bit above, but
16:10 again, we've had some dry weather, so now we're a bit below.
16:12 Even with the unsettled weather that we're going to see the weekend and into next week,
16:17 I'm not really expecting it to really challenge the record.
16:22 It may get close, so it will probably be one of the wettest Aprils on record, but not probably
16:27 the wettest at this stage.
16:29 There's still a lot to play for, but I just wanted to highlight that.
16:31 The other thing is our temperatures.
16:33 We talk a lot about temperatures, unsurprisingly, and if we look at our mean temperature, and
16:38 you can see after initially a cold spell during January, they've actually been significantly
16:42 above average through much of this year, very close to record earlier on in April, but because
16:47 of the chillier spell that we're in now, they've dipped down a little bit.
16:50 If we look at that again in terms of spring, and you can really see that, it's very close
16:57 to the record for the highest mean temperature with regards to spring at this stage in the
17:02 season, but because of this chillier spell that we're entering now, we've kind of drifted
17:06 a little away from that line.
17:08 But this is looking at mean temperature.
17:11 If we look at the same chart now, but for minimum temperature, it's a little bit more
17:15 exciting in as much as interesting.
17:18 Exciting is perhaps not the right word, but interesting.
17:20 That actually, yes, it's a rollercoaster ride earlier on in the year, but at the moment,
17:28 at this stage in the year, we're ever so slightly just above the record level for minimum temperature.
17:35 And so if we then look at that again, but this time looking at spring, and it's even
17:39 more marked, and you can see we're just, I mean, it's not even a degree above, it's a
17:44 0.1 or 0.2 of a degree above the record.
17:47 But for this stage in spring, currently, our minimum temperature total for so far through
17:53 this spring is higher than it ever has been on record.
17:57 Now we are going to see a colder spell.
18:00 Like I said, there's going to be some frost as we go through the next few days.
18:03 And so that means our minimum temperature figure is going to drop down as we go through
18:08 the next few days.
18:09 And so it will probably drop a little bit below that line, then pick up again as we
18:12 go into the weekend with that warmer mild rare that's coming across.
18:16 But nonetheless, it's going to be very close to, well, the record level for this stage
18:21 in spring.
18:22 Obviously, there's a lot of spring still to go, but I just thought that was relatively
18:26 interesting to take a look at because there's been so much talk about how much rain we've
18:29 seen recently, but it's also the temperatures which are perhaps closer to those record levels.
18:35 Then the last thing that I wanted to leave you with was yesterday, Monday 22nd, was actually
18:40 Earth Day.
18:41 EarthDay.org, they're working hard to reduce the amount of plastic.
18:44 In fact, their target is to reduce plastic usage by 60% by the year 2040.
18:50 Here at the Met Office, amongst other environmental efforts, we're also making efforts to reduce
18:56 our plastic usage where we can.
18:58 So eliminating or at least reducing single-use plastic usage, such as we're removing plastic
19:04 bottles from our vending machines.
19:05 An interesting fact that I read the other day was in the production of a bottle of water,
19:11 six times the amount of water in the bottle itself is used in the production.
19:18 So when you're buying a bottle of water from the shop or whatnot, just bear in mind that
19:24 you have that amount of water, 500 millilitres or whatever, in the bottle itself, but six
19:29 times that was required to make the bottle that it comes in.
19:33 So just bear that in mind.
19:35 I'm sure many of us are already doing lots of things to reduce our plastic usage and
19:39 that's great and I think we need to continue.
19:41 But yeah, just wanted to highlight that Earth Day was on Monday the 22nd.
19:46 That's everything that I wanted to talk about today.
19:47 I do hope you've enjoyed this deep dive.
19:50 As always, do leave a comment, ask any questions.
19:53 I will be in the comment section for around half an hour.
19:56 So if you're watching this for 4.30 on Tuesday, then leave a comment and I'll try to answer
20:01 it as quickly as possible.
20:03 And I will be looking back at the comments.
20:04 So even if you're watching this at a later time, later date, then do leave a comment
20:09 as I will be able to reply to some of those too.
20:12 Remember to share this video with anyone who you think may be interested in anything I've
20:16 been talking about.
20:17 Perhaps you know someone who's in China or in America and may be interested in the heavy
20:22 rainfall that is going to be affecting parts there.
20:26 And hit the like button.
20:27 We do appreciate that.
20:28 It helps us get our message across.
20:29 And we'll be back here tomorrow with our 10-day trend.
20:33 And like I said, the 14-day outlook, which is available on our app, is going to be updated
20:38 this evening.
20:39 We update those every Tuesday and Friday.
20:40 Otherwise, I hope you have a wonderful rest of your day and I'll see you again soon.
20:44 Ta-ra.
20:44 [BLANK_AUDIO]