The Scotsman Politics: Spring Budget 2024 Review

The Scotsman

The Scotsman Politics: Spring Budget 2024 Review with Dale Miller and Alexander Brown.

Transcript

00:00 (upbeat music)

00:02 - Hello, and welcome to the Scotsman's Politics Show

00:11 where we are reviewing the spring budget.

00:15 Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has stood up.

00:17 He has given us his rundown about the big commitments

00:21 and announcements made by the UK government.

00:24 And I'm here with Westminster correspondent,

00:26 Alexander Brown to take us through everything.

00:28 Alex, there were some key pledges mooted

00:32 in the buildup to this national insurance windfall tax.

00:35 Non-dom status, did we get everything that we expected?

00:38 - We got everything we expected.

00:41 And in fact, there were no rabbits.

00:43 So much of the talk around Westminster had been,

00:46 oh, you know, maybe he'll cut income tax as well.

00:48 Maybe they'll go further.

00:49 And so the government can have an election in May.

00:52 There'll be something, some huge pitch to voters.

00:54 But when you go through the measures

00:56 and the financial package and the size of it,

00:58 in reality, this was smaller than the autumn statement.

01:01 This was not a significant spread of packages.

01:04 It's cutting national insurance.

01:06 Again, the non-dom is a significant U-turn,

01:10 but it's very interesting that when Labour wanted

01:12 to get rid of non-dom status,

01:13 the government said it would cost them 350 million a year.

01:17 Now, the Chancellor is saying it can save

01:19 the government money and it can bring in money

01:23 to the public purse.

01:23 So there weren't any real surprises.

01:26 I think the main takeaway having heard that is,

01:28 a May election is less likely than it maybe was this morning.

01:32 I think the Chancellor has left himself room for,

01:35 and he did hint at the idea of further tax cuts.

01:38 He wants to get to a position where they can have

01:40 more long-term tax cuts of maybe another fiscal statement

01:44 later this year, which suggests an autumn election.

01:46 - So you say no rabbits out of the hats.

01:50 Were there any surprises today?

01:52 Anything that we didn't expect

01:54 that you picked up from the start?

01:57 - No, I mean, I felt quite content actually in our coverage

01:59 and that we had said, I'd said that there would be a wind

02:02 for the windfall tax would be extended

02:04 and the government weren't confirming that,

02:06 but I'd spoken to a few people.

02:07 And then indeed there has been an extension

02:09 of the windfall tax, which raises huge questions

02:12 for the Scottish Tories.

02:14 Douglas Ross, I think has already said

02:16 that he will vote against it.

02:17 And we now know that he made very public condemnation of it

02:21 and made a pitch to the prime minister and to the chancellor

02:24 to the extent that they had to have a meeting

02:26 with the Scottish secretary to discuss it.

02:29 The camera in PMQs cut to him at one point

02:32 where they were talking about where the chancellor said

02:34 he was a champion of Scotch whiskey

02:36 and Douglas Ross did not look pleased at all.

02:40 We also knew that there was very unlikely

02:43 to be a cut in spirit duty and indeed it was frozen.

02:46 Now the government would say,

02:48 oh, this is actually a great news.

02:49 This is a surprise.

02:50 It means people won't be paying more.

02:52 Scotch whiskey association,

02:54 while they welcome not having to pay more,

02:56 are still very unhappy and still say

02:58 that it's a fundamental misunderstanding of their industry

03:01 and has seen the prior thing,

03:03 Scotch whiskey is taxed four times the price of cider.

03:06 So industry is not very happy.

03:08 And I think one thing that's really worth looking at

03:11 is in making these tax cuts

03:13 and making that financial wiggle room to national insurance,

03:16 it's created, I've been, I'm doing the math

03:17 and I'm looking at my notes here.

03:19 Essentially there will have to be cuts

03:20 of 20 billion a year by 2028.

03:24 So the government talked about running a clean estate,

03:28 a tight estate.

03:28 It's not gonna increase funding for the NHS.

03:30 It's just going to do it more intelligently.

03:33 But hearing about these tax cuts

03:35 and knowing that more and more are planned,

03:37 the huge cuts of public services are coming.

03:39 And I mean, the SNP and Labour had both warned

03:41 this is a government that will be cutting

03:43 public services to the bone.

03:44 And while it wasn't framed like that

03:46 and it was framed as streamlining and admin,

03:49 these tax cuts come at a huge cost.

03:51 And I think it's quite telling that we expect Labour

03:53 to be the ones who probably have to manage it

03:56 after they've come in.

03:57 - Now, Alex, just circling around to the alcohol duty

04:00 and the whiskey, I know you'd written on Sunday,

04:04 effectively the Scotch Whiskey Association,

04:06 where after a cut to duty,

04:09 just the fourth time by a chancellor in a century.

04:12 So I can say just holding it

04:15 is not exactly what they wanted.

04:17 You mentioned the election there.

04:18 So, and there was speculation over

04:23 whether it could even be May.

04:24 On the back of this, you're indicating

04:26 that seems pretty unlikely.

04:28 - Yeah, I don't think anyone is especially moved

04:32 by the idea of cutting national insurance.

04:34 I mean, if cutting national insurance by two points

04:37 was enough to improve the polls,

04:38 the Tories would have done much better

04:40 after the autumn statement last year

04:41 when Jeremy Hunt cut national insurance by two pence.

04:46 So it's a further cut.

04:48 It's 900 pounds for the average person

04:50 a year in their pocket.

04:51 I think it saves 27 million people money.

04:55 And that's very helpful,

04:56 but all the polling shows that people don't really,

04:59 it's not about tax for people anymore.

05:00 It's about funding for public services.

05:02 So I'm not necessarily sure repeating the trick is enough.

05:06 And I was speaking to MPs and activists this morning,

05:10 and one of them was saying to me,

05:12 "I think there's gonna be a May election.

05:13 "I think we have to go early

05:14 "because things are not going to get better.

05:17 "And if we do it now,

05:18 "it avoids the aftermath of the local elections

05:21 "and the Blackpool by-election and the mayoral elections,

05:24 "all of which the Tories are expected

05:26 "to take a battering in."

05:28 But the same person also said,

05:29 but also, "I know that's suicide.

05:32 "I know to go for it now is to see a wipeout,

05:35 "but to wait longer could see an even bigger wipeout."

05:38 So there is still mixed feelings about this.

05:40 The head of the Treasury Select Committee,

05:43 a Conservative MP said this morning,

05:45 she was preparing for a May election,

05:47 but that doesn't mean that there's going to be one.

05:50 There seems to be a real mix of moods

05:53 and attitudes on it in Downing Street.

05:55 I spoke to one person who I know

05:57 is categorically ruled out as it's not going to happen.

06:00 Senior government figures today were briefing

06:02 that there is not going to be an early election,

06:04 but we've seen an ambassador told

06:07 they can't attend an event in April,

06:09 and they haven't explained why.

06:11 That suggests they might have to be here for an election.

06:14 So we're all kind of looking at things.

06:17 Everything that MPs tell us now,

06:19 or every slight ambassadorial decision is suddenly going,

06:22 "Does that mean election?"

06:23 And the only one who really knows is Rishi Sunak,

06:26 if he's even decided.

06:27 - Alex, very last question.

06:29 I may know the answer to this,

06:31 but what will the Scottish government think of this budget?

06:34 (Alex laughs)

06:35 - I mean, I imagine even before having seen the budget,

06:38 the Scottish government would think it was very bad,

06:40 but I think we know that under this,

06:42 the Scottish government gets 300 million pounds

06:46 in further consequentials under the Barnett formula,

06:48 but the tax cut costs the government 9 billion.

06:52 So the government is giving 300 million to Scotland,

06:55 but it is taking 9 billion out of the public purse.

06:58 So I know 300 million seems like a lot of money,

07:02 but it doesn't actually go very far

07:03 when we're talking about infrastructure projects

07:05 or regeneration and funding long-term economic plan

07:10 or whatever.

07:10 So I imagine they won't be very happy.

07:12 And I know that we heard from Stephen Flynn

07:14 that he wanted 15 billion more for the NHS,

07:18 and instead they've maintained the current levels of funding.

07:21 So they won't be very happy.

07:24 There's not really any rabbits for them.

07:26 And between the oil and gas,

07:28 though I suppose they maybe have a crossover

07:30 on oil and gas because they also don't support

07:33 an extension of the windfall tax.

07:34 So there's nothing there for them.

07:37 There'll just be more complaints.

07:39 - It'll be interesting, Alex, on the back of this,

07:41 whether they say there's any more money

07:43 to help with the housing situation up here in Scotland,

07:46 which Shona Robison was very clear that any money

07:50 that was up and above expectations

07:52 would be going towards that avenue.

07:54 Alex, thank you very much for joining us.

07:56 You can read all the coverage on the budget at scotsman.com.

08:01 There is a designated area on the site

08:04 specifically for budget coverage,

08:06 but you can also click on the politics tab

08:08 for all the latest.

08:09 Please follow us on Facebook, Instagram, and X,

08:12 and buy a copy of the paper tomorrow.

08:15 Until then.

08:16 (upbeat music)

08:18 (upbeat music)

08:21 you

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