Ukraine grain exports: Erdogan to make 'important' announcement after Putin talks

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00:00 Well, the two leaders spoke briefly to journalists before going into private talks.

00:05 Here's a little of what was said there.

00:14 Today everyone is looking at the grain corridor issue in Turkey-Russia relations.

00:20 They're waiting to see what will come out today regarding the grain corridor.

00:26 I believe that the message we give the world in a press conference after our meeting will

00:30 be very important, especially for underdeveloped African countries.

00:42 We have a lot to talk about from the point of view of ensuring security in the region.

00:48 Of course, we will not ignore the issues related to the Ukrainian crisis.

00:54 I know that you intend to raise questions about the grain deal.

00:58 We are open to negotiations on this issue.

01:03 Well, listening to that brief address was Oliver Fary from our foreign desk, and he's

01:09 with me now.

01:10 Oliver, what do you think we should expect to come out of this meeting today?

01:14 Well, the hope is that the grain deal that was suspended six weeks ago will be kick-started

01:18 once again.

01:19 This is a lifeline for countries outside of the conflict, particularly developing ones.

01:25 It managed to keep grain prices low even as the war continued in Ukraine, but Russia was

01:31 not happy with this.

01:33 Moscow thought that it got a raw deal, that commitments made by other parties were not

01:37 being met.

01:38 Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Turkey have positioned themselves as brokers here.

01:43 Erdogan has not always had the coziest ties with Vladimir Putin, particularly during the

01:47 early days of the Syrian civil war, when they were on different sides of the divide.

01:52 But things have warmed up considerably, and Turkey, even though it's a NATO member, has

01:56 not completely severed its ties with Russia since the latter's invasion of Ukraine.

02:01 There has been trade between the two countries continuing, including some that skirted Western

02:06 sanctions on Russia, Turkey being used as a staging point for trade from third countries

02:12 until Ankara put a stop to it earlier this year.

02:15 Now, UN Secretary General Antony Guterres sent Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov

02:21 what he called a series of concrete proposals to get the grain deal up and running.

02:25 But Moscow says that they don't go far enough.

02:29 Turkey is being quite understanding.

02:31 It says that it's dispatched Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan for talks ahead of today's meeting.

02:38 Russia wants greater commitments on matters such as financing and insurance that will

02:43 allow its own grain and also fertilizer exports, which are not subject to sanctions, to continue.

02:49 But will Vladimir Putin be willing to restart the deal?

02:52 Because he's got his own reasons for maybe dragging his feet on it as well.

02:57 His Russian forces have been targeting Ukrainian grain ports overnight with drone attacks.

03:03 So the Russian president is very conscious of the leverage that he might have here.

03:07 And you mentioned that you touched on one of the justifications that Vladimir Putin

03:12 has for pulling out of that deal.

03:15 He's complained that Russia has been sort of effectively shut out of grain trade around

03:20 the world since the war in Ukraine broke out.

03:23 Is there any truth to what he says?

03:25 Well, it hasn't prevented Moscow from shipping record amounts of grain last year because

03:29 there have been countries that have stepped in to fill the gaps, such as China and India,

03:35 which have been buying quite a lot of grain.

03:37 Now that said, there is some truth to Russia's complaints.

03:41 Agricultural exports such as grain and fertilizer from Russia may not be subject to sanctions,

03:45 but paying for those exports is a complicated matter for third-party countries because of

03:50 the sanctions on Russian banks.

03:52 And Moscow wants the state-owned Russian Agricultural Bank to be exempted from these sanctions to

03:57 ease the process of paying for these grain deals.

04:00 Now they will obviously want clarity on the message sent to third parties, many of whom

04:05 are very, very nervous and spooked, so to speak, of violating sanctions, even if in

04:10 this specific case it is permitted.

04:13 Now Russia has also tried to use grain as a wedge issue in shoring up support in the

04:19 global south.

04:20 We've seen often over the last 18 months that impressions of Russia in developing countries

04:26 are very different from how they are in the West.

04:28 And Moscow gets a sympathetic air in quite a lot of foreign capitals, particularly in

04:33 Africa.

04:34 The spectre of rising food prices is something that makes a lot of governments nervous, and

04:38 Russia knows this, and this is what Recep Tayyip Erdogan also alluded to earlier on

04:43 as well.

04:44 So the grain deal can be a very, very useful diplomatic tool for Moscow, but it can also

04:48 cut both ways.

04:49 Oliver Farrie, thank you very much indeed for that.

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