AccuWeather Long-Range Expert Joe Lundberg looks ahead to next week. Rounds of storms are expected to occur from the Dakotas to the Ohio Valley while dangerous heat is forecast to bake the Plains.
00:00We do have to talk about the long range because a lot of people looking ahead to August trying to find some changes in the patterns here.
00:06And there are going to be some changes. It's going to be a pretty active pattern.
00:08In fact, the three things to know about next week, there's going to be rounds of thunderstorms stretching from the Dakotas into the Ohio Valley.
00:14They'll sink south with time, and that's going to lead to a nice break from the heat and humidity for many from the northern plains all the way to the north and east.
00:22And there's going to be a squeeze play in the heat.
00:24We're talking about this heat in a lot of places with triple-digit heat and real fields well over 100.
00:29That's the current pattern right now with this high-pressure system over the central plains going into the early part of next week.
00:36This is the area that we're going to be most focused on for afternoon highs reaching near 100, real field temperatures to 110, heat-related illnesses.
00:44But along the rim of it, this is where you're going to see the shower and thunderstorm activity from parts of the Dakotas into Wisconsin and across parts of Michigan as well as the Ohio Valley.
00:54And that means not just rounds of thunderstorms but a threat for severe weather.
00:57And the repeated rain could lead to some flash flooding risk as well in this area, Melissa.
01:03And some of those spots through lower Michigan, for example, really do want that rain.
01:07So it's not all a bad thing.
01:08It's just if it comes too quickly all at once.
01:10Yeah, so here's the pattern that we're, again, this is kind of reset for what we are next week.
01:14Here's the sizzling heat in the nation's midsection.
01:16Pretty warm in the west.
01:18Rounds of thunderstorms over top.
01:19Well, let's look at the 500 millibar flow and see how this evolves as we go through next week.
01:23The beginning part of the week, you'll see the center of the high-pressure system in here in the central plains.
01:29Then as we go forward in time, notice that it starts to migrate a little farther to the west.
01:33Over the top of it, you'll see these disturbances coming in this fashion.
01:37And eventually what that's going to do, this is a midweek period, say Wednesday.
01:40We get to the end of next week and next weekend.
01:43That high shifts a little bit farther west.
01:44It gets pinched.
01:46More disturbances carve out a deeper upper-level trough.
01:48And the result is this pattern change.
01:50We see that ridge squeezed farther to the south and west.
01:54And comforting relief stretches from the plain states into the mid-Atlantic and northeast.
01:58How comfortable?
01:59I think temperatures in some places are going to be some 5 to 15 degrees below historical averages,
02:04which means you're going to be saving on your energy bills in places like Minneapolis, Chicago, Detroit, Boston, and New York.
02:10Cool nights, it's really going to be very comfortable.
02:13So that's what's on the way for later next week and really the first five days of August.
