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The big focus of this episode of Newstrack is on the political controversy over the Election Commission's Special Intensive Revision (SIR) exercise in Bihar, which has led to the removal of 61 lakh names from the voter rolls.
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00:00Hello and welcome. Good evening. You're watching NewsTrack here on India Today.
00:05I'm Akshita Nanda Gopal. This evening, over the next 30 minutes, we're getting you all the latest updates coming in
00:10on the big political battle over the Election Commission's SIR experience,
00:15a special intensive revision exercise that's currently underway in Bihar to go ahead and scrutinize voter rolls.
00:22We're going to get you details and a deep dive into the data of the votes that have been eliminated so far
00:29by the Election Commissioner. What's the impact it actually has on the ground if we were to take it
00:33through the 2020 election results? But before that, just a quick look at exactly what makes India today's
00:39election coverage stand out. It's our election intelligence dashboard. We're prepped, we're ready,
00:45we're on the countdown essentially to the Bihar elections now expected in just a few months from
00:50now. So just a quick glimpse of what to expect in our election intelligence dashboard and therefore
00:55also jog your memories on exactly what the last election in Bihar looked like. Remember that there
01:01are in Bihar, in fact, 243 seats. It was a very, very interesting election in 2020. And after that,
01:09so many changes, U-turns and a complete change in scenario. But let me break it down for you first
01:15with the results that came in in 2020. Of the 243 seats, the single largest party was in fact,
01:21the RJD with 75. But the BJP-JDU combined easily managed to sweep Bihar with 74 and 43. Mind you,
01:30this was the 2020 result. And then you had a series of developments where in 2022, Nitish Kumar left the
01:35BJP, joined the Mahagat Bandhan, formed the Mahagat Bandhan. And then you had the RJD with Tejasvi as the
01:42Deputy Chief Minister. So I'll break it down party-wise also for you as far as essentially the vote share
01:48was concerned. You had that happen. And then in January 2024, the JDU and the BJP came back
01:54together. But here's what makes the Bihar election so interesting. If you look at the percentage in
01:59the seats and otherwise, you look at RJD at 23.4%. That's what makes this election so interesting.
02:07Will the scenario change just because of an SIR experience and an exercise? Who really will benefit
02:14from that kind of an exercise? We're getting you a very detailed report coming up. This is our
02:18election intelligence dashboard that we'll keep referring to for the data of the 2020 election
02:23results in Bihar.
02:28The special intensive revision war from Delhi to Bihar.
02:32The senior intensive revision exercise. Who gains? Who loses?
02:58The senior intensive revision exercise. Who gains? Who loses?
02:58Opposition smells conspiracy. Mals election boycott.
03:22Bihar survey reality check. That is our top focus on news track.
03:26And let's begin with the latest footage coming in of Prime Minister Modi in London.
03:40He's just met with King Charles III and first images of the meeting we have accessed here on Idioturi.
03:47There's a picture there for you of Prime Minister Modi meeting with King Charles.
03:50This is the first meeting between the two, particularly after Charles took over as the monarch of England.
03:58An important one because Prime Minister Modi in this power pack visit in the United Kingdom has already met with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
04:05And after the historic free trade agreement, now a meeting of the Prime Minister with the British Royal as well, with the monarch King Charles III.
04:15There have been brief encounters previously.
04:17There have been conversations on the phone.
04:19One puller site that took place rather briefly in 2023.
04:23But this is the first in-person meet happening in the UK and the first one since, in fact, Charles took over as the king.
04:33And now, as King Charles III, he's meeting with Prime Minister Modi.
04:36We're awaiting details of really what was discussed.
04:39But you can see the friendship in this picture.
04:42A brief handshake as the first pictures emerge from Sandringham House, which is where the meeting has taken place.
04:48Right after this, Prime Minister Modi is going to be taking off for the Maldives.
04:53Short visit, but extremely crucial and has, of course, many, many takeaways when you look at particularly the free trade agreement and the fact that you have a message going across from the UK that India is a trusted friend, a trusted ally.
05:07And that's why it's not just a meeting with the government, but also with the royals of Britain.
05:12First picture on your screen is there.
05:13Hopefully, we'll get some details in the coming minutes on exactly what was discussed in this meeting.
05:18But also to remind you that this meeting comes just about a few weeks after King Charles also met with the Indian cricket team, where he did express his interest not just in cricket, but also said that he was very closely following the Indian cricket team.
05:32But the first message, a formal one that's come in from the royal family, that's confirmed the meeting with Prime Minister Modi.
05:39I'll just read out the message for you.
05:40It says, and I quote,
05:41So a very thoughtful, thoughtful message there that's been put out.
06:07And in the first meeting between Prime Minister Modi and King Charles, a very thoughtful gift from the Prime Minister as he's given a tree to, in fact, King Charles III to encourage an initiative by Prime Minister Modi, which encourages people to plant a tree in tribute to their mother.
06:24So that's the picture there of Prime Minister Modi and King Charles III.
06:28I'm assuming that the tree behind them is the one that they just planted.
06:30But Pranay Upadhyay is joining us.
06:34But before that, Laveena Tundran is joining us live from London with the latest updates.
06:38Laveena, first picture on our screens of the meeting between Prime Minister Modi and King Charles III.
06:43We understand that there has been some communication that's come in also from the royals on this meeting.
06:49Take us through that.
06:49Yes, can I first pardon myself for saying I'm talking to you from inside the car.
06:56We're coming out from Luton Who Hotel where the Prime Minister stayed and where the press conference happened.
07:01And this all happened in a very wrapped manner.
07:05And now we are able to say and this is a very location quite inside.
07:09So we are in the car on the way out.
07:11Now, coming back to the king, yes, they share a great bond.
07:17Actually, King Charles III shares a great bond with India.
07:21And he is very big on forest conservation, climate change.
07:27And giving him a sapling is what, which is going to be planted, we were told, in autumn in the remembrance of the mother.
07:36So it's a very nice gesture.
07:39And the king was in Sardingham, which is in Norfolk, which is about 160 miles north of London.
07:48And so now he takes off to Maldives.
07:52And the royal family, of course, has, sorry, can you hear me?
07:57Go ahead, Laveena.
07:58Yes, of course.
08:00Okay.
08:00So, yes, this was a very kind gesture.
08:05And he did call upon, as a curtsy visit, just before he left for, he leaves for Maldives.
08:11We're expecting that footage also of the Prime Minister now headed from the UK to the Maldives.
08:16But a beautiful gesture by Prime Minister Modi there for King Charles III,
08:20gifting him a sapling, which, as Buckingham Palace is confirmed, was planted at Sandringham House.
08:25That picture, in all likelihood, we're going to assume, is of Prime Minister Modi with King Charles III
08:29with the sapling that they've planted right behind them.
08:32Hopefully, we'll get more videos and images of that meeting.
08:35But thanks for the moment, Laveena, for joining us with all of those details.
08:41All right, let's move on to our top focus here on the news track.
08:46A special intensive revision war is underway from Delhi to Behar.
08:50There's been a political storm that we've been tracking closely here on India Today,
08:53which you've seen too, brewing over elections, and not over votes cast,
08:57but the names that are being erased.
08:59As of now, with the EC's exercise, 61 lakh voters have been removed from the Bihar electoral rolls.
09:07And that's triggered a war of words.
09:08But what we've done here on India Today is we've done a deep dive with those numbers,
09:13putting it in contrast to the 2020 elections,
09:15and seeing what a difference, actually, that number can make.
09:19Mind you, this is with data that came in 24 hours ago.
09:21So, at that point, it was 51 lakh votes that were removed from the voter rolls.
09:26So, with that number of 51 votes being eliminated,
09:29can it actually be a game-changer in an election?
09:32We put that to test in the 2020 election results.
09:35Here's what it threw up.
09:36The J.D.U. is referring to Tejasvi Yadav's hint of boycotting,
09:41the J.D.U. is referring to the J.D.U. is referring to Tejasvi Yadav's hint of boycotting,
09:45the election as a sign of fear.
09:54The J.D.U. is referring to Tejasvi Yadav's hint of boycotting the election as a sign of fear.
10:08The fear of losing Battleground Bihar.
10:12If that is indeed the case, what is there to be afraid of?
10:16Is this fear related to the removal of 52 lakh voters from the voter list?
10:24Remember, during the Special Intensive Revision Exercise,
10:28a total of 52,30,126 voters were found not residing at their registered address.
10:35Among them, 18,66,280 voters were found to be deceased.
10:4326,10,31 have permanently relocated elsewhere.
10:487,50,742 were found to be enrolled in more than one location.
10:54In addition, there are 11,484 names whose whereabouts have not yet been confirmed.
11:01So, does Tejasvi Yadav believe that the removal of the 5.2 million names can influence the election?
11:09The election commission, the press note, we have seen that we have seen that we have got 50 or 55,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.
11:21Now, we have a question on this whole process.
11:25If we break down the 52,30,126 voters removed across all 243 seats in Bihar,
11:47it comes down to an average of about 22,739 voters per assembly seat.
11:55So, indeed, if over 22,000 names are removed from each seat for legitimate reasons,
12:01as per the election commission, what kind of impact could that have?
12:05In 2020 assembly elections, 153 after 243 seats, that is 63% of seats,
12:13had a victory margin of less than 20,000 votes.
12:1780 seats had margins between 10,000 to 20,000 votes.
12:2341 seats had margins between 5,000 to 10,000 votes.
12:2832 seats had margins below 5,000 votes.
12:32And 11 seats were decided by a margin of 500 to 1,000 votes.
12:37Is that why Tejasvi Yadav and the opposition feel that the names being removed will hurt them and affect the election results?
12:47Although, there's another reality.
12:49In 2020, out of 153 seats, where the victory margin was under 20,000 votes,
12:58the NTA won around 78 seats, and the rest, 69 seats, went to the Mahagadbandhan.
13:04So, does the opposition believe that only their voters are being removed from the rolls?
13:10I don't know.
13:37For now, the truth is that no one knows which way the
14:06removed voters would have voted.
14:10And now consider these two realities regarding voter deletions.
14:16The first picture.
14:17In the last Lok Sabha election, the NDA received around 2.04 crore votes, 47.23% of the total
14:26votes.
14:27And the Mahagat Bandhan got around 1.7 crore votes, that is 39.21%.
14:33The gap between both alliances was approximately 34 lakh votes.
14:39Now if 52.3 lakh voters are removed, and we calculate based on NDA's 47.23% vote share
14:47in 2024, that equals about 24.7 lakh votes, which when divided across 243 assembly seats
14:56comes to around 10,000 votes per seat that could be affected.
15:01Similarly, based on India's alliance's 39.21% vote share, they could lose around 20.5 lakh
15:10votes, which comes to approximately 8,500 votes per seat across 243 seats.
15:17So in that sense, both NDA and the opposition are losing voters, not just one side.
15:24The ruling side is asking, why is Tejasvi Yadav more concerned about dead voters than living
15:31ones?
15:32But Tejasvi Yadav has hit back with this question.
15:59If the election commission was updating the voter list on January 25, 2025, why did not it
16:06know earlier about these 18 lakh deceased voters?
16:11Until now, political fights over voter list additions and deletions are going to be the same.
16:12Until now, political fights over voter list additions and deletions are going to be the same.
16:16after election results.
16:17Until now, political fights over voter list additions and deletions used to happen after election
16:18results.
16:19This time, it is happening even before the election.
16:20Whether the benefit goes to the ruling side or the voting side or the voting side of the
16:21election.
16:22The fear is that it is not that it is not a good result.
16:23That is not the case.
16:24Until now, political fights over voter list additions and deletions used to happen after election
16:43results.
16:44This time, it is happening even before the election.
16:47Whether the benefit goes to the ruling side or the opposition, the fear is that the real
16:53loss is to public faith in the electoral process.
16:56Bureau report India today.
17:03So very, very interesting numbers that have emerged from our report where we did a comparison
17:08if so many votes are down, if so many voters are in part of the role, what will remain in
17:13the 2020 scenario?
17:14Things have changed, of course, and that number will further go up in the next 24 hours.
17:18But as it was with the numbers we showed you, it's clearly creating a dent on ground.
17:22Let me bring you on this broadcast, Sanjay Kumar, co-director of Lok Neeti CSDS, a sophologist,
17:27Mr. Amitabh Tiwari, political strategist, commentator, election analyst and researcher also with us.
17:33Good evening, gentlemen.
17:34Thank you very much for your time.
17:35Amitabh Tiwari, I'd like to begin with you.
17:37In the data that we've put out where essentially when we look at really the 52 lakh number,
17:43it's gone, of course, much above that, about 61 lakh now.
17:46But at 52 lakh, essentially it's about 22,000 average voters removed per seat.
17:53And the question that immediately comes to my mind is what happens to those seats where it went down to the wire.
17:58Do you think that those are the seats where you'll see the maximum impact perhaps of these voter names being removed?
18:03So see, essentially if 22,739 voters per seat are being removed, then it effectively implies roughly 70 to 75 voters per polling booth.
18:18Correct.
18:19Now the question, I mean the bigger question is if these are deceased and have permanently shifted,
18:27whether they voted in 2020 or not is a question mark.
18:32Correct.
18:33That only the ECI knows whether these guys have voted or not voted.
18:37Even if they have voted, their voting percentage may not be 100%.
18:43It would be in line with what was the overall voting percentage, which was around 60%.
18:49And whom they voted, nobody would know.
18:52Whether they voted Mahagadbandan or they voted NDA, it is very, very difficult to know.
18:57And you have rightly apportioned it between the NDA and the Mahagadbandan.
19:01The question is, the bigger question is if the opposition has problems with let's say this 18 lakh people who have been removed
19:13and they feel that these are legible voters, then that is just 25 per booth.
19:20And with RJD having a statewide presence and the single largest party in the state,
19:25they can easily identify these voters and bring them to the district headquarters or the administrative divisions.
19:32So that is what the play is.
19:34I mean, what is the problem?
19:36If the problem is that these guys do exist, then they are somewhere in Bihar itself.
19:41They can be easily brought up and you can go and cover and all the national media can go and cover.
19:46Correct.
19:47The problem is that, but one thing which they are raising is valid, is that to move deceased voters or voters who have shifted permanently,
19:57a SIR was not required.
19:59This should have been done in the summary revision.
20:02SIR was to weed out illegal citizens.
20:05But out of this 52 lakh or 61 lakhs, we have still not got what is the number of illegal citizens who have been removed.
20:13You're right.
20:15We don't have that breakdown, but in the next 24 hours, when this exercise ends,
20:20maybe, maybe we'll get that data from the election commission and then we'll be able to break that down further.
20:25But looking at that 52 lakh number, and I'll bring in Mr. Sanjay Kumar on this,
20:30if we break that down, particularly based on the 2024 vote share of Mr. Sanjay Kumar,
20:36it does look like based on the votes lost to the assembly seat, it is the NDA that's hit harder than the Mahakat Bandhan.
20:43And so, you know, amid all of the politics, that's a very, very interesting and important data point.
20:49No, I think if you're projecting it on 2024 looks of election.
20:54So, I think what you're trying to do is to proportionate these 52 lakh voters in terms of the vote share
21:01pulled by the different alliances.
21:03Since NDA pulled larger number of votes, so the greater proportion of these will definitely go in their favor.
21:08So, it's not that it will hurt the NDA going by that logic because in some of the consequences,
21:15NDA Alliance partners may have won the consequences with a very large margin.
21:20It will matter in an election scenario when we are heading for a closed election.
21:25If it is a one-sided election, and the example which you have cited is about a one-sided election.
21:302024 election was a one-sided election.
21:33And in such a scenario, whether you are removing 52 lakh or whether you are removing 39 lakh,
21:38it doesn't make a lot of difference because a party or an alliance has won the election with a huge margin.
21:44It will not make much difference.
21:46No, so do you think, Mr. Sanjay Kumar, the kind of questions that the opposition has raised over the exercise itself
21:52is very much valid because there are also holes constantly being poked on how the EC is moving with this exercise,
21:59particularly in the border areas?
22:01No, the questions which are being raised by the opposition are valid,
22:05because they are not referring to 2024 log-sub-election.
22:08We are not heading for a log-sub-election.
22:11Bihar is heading for an assembly election.
22:13And we know the assembly election has been much tighter compared to the log-sub-election.
22:18You did show the data about the assembly election results of 2020.
22:22And we know that election was very, very close.
22:25And if such a large number of voters are removed, and if we know that generally there is a belief that people who are on the lower ends of socio-economic margins,
22:37they would be the ones who would find it difficult to produce the kind of documents which are being required.
22:43So the proportion of voters who are getting removed would be higher among the lower socio-economic ladder among the poor and the lower class voters.
22:54And if we go by the survey data, we know that a larger proportion of them votes for RJD Alliance.
23:01I am not saying everyone votes in favour of RJD Alliance.
23:05Amitabh Diwari, you are looking at these data, these are numbers, let's be very clear.
23:12And so there is no clarity on really what, who, where, why, none of that.
23:17Do you think that's what it essentially comes down to, to decide whether an SIR will actually have an impact for which party, etc.
23:24Do you think it comes down to the demography of who, and that's what matters the most, Amitabh Diwari?
23:30Of course, as, as Sanjay sir has said, it is, we need to have the breakup of the voters.
23:37Who are these voters? Age, gender, income groups, caste, religion, etc.
23:43And also we need to understand that whether these guys voted in 2024 or not, whether these guys were dead, let's say 18 lakh,
23:52and they still remained on the voter list, let's say for some error, because they were still on the voter list even in January 1, 2025.
23:59So if there was an error, if they were on the voter list in 2024, by error, then their removal or existence on the voter list does not matter much because they would not have voted.
24:12Unless we are alleging that there is mass bogus voting, correct, that these guys were not there, but they still voted, etc.
24:20So the demographic of the people who have been excluded is fairly important.
24:25And for a party like RJD, which has polling booths, polling agents across the state, we can discount Congress for some time because Congress is not that powerful in northern states.
24:37They can easily pick up this if there is mass kill rigging in this process.
24:45Correct, because the booth agent knows the people who have been removed.
24:49Look, impact is something that maybe will take time to analyze and read through, but clearly at this point the opposition is already crying foul.
24:56You mean so much so that when questions are asked, Tejasvi Adav suggests that boycott is something that's on the table.
25:02It's an option that they are considering right now in the run-up to the Bihar elections.
25:05Thank you very much to both our panelists, our analysts, for joining us on this broadcast.
25:10Mr. Sanjay Kumar, Amitab Diwari, thank you for your time and for joining us here on NewsTrack.
25:14It's an interesting election that we're counting down to in Bihar.
25:17Of course, made a whole lot more interesting because of the EC exercise.
25:22That ends in 24 hours.
25:24As of the latest data from the Election Commission, over 61 lakh votes have been gone, eliminated from the voter roll.
25:31That number will go up further, but a detailed breakdown will really be needed to understand what will be the impact of these kind of names being removed.
25:40Who will it impact the most?
25:42Will it be the NDA?
25:43Will it be the Mahakar Pantan?
25:45We are going to track and decode that for you.
25:47That's all we have time for in this edition of NewsTrack.
25:49Thanks very much for tuning in.