- 2 days ago
During remarks on the House floor Wednesday, Rep. David Schweikert (R-AZ) spoke about the national debt.
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00:00California, and as we always say to Californians, don't take Arizona's water.
00:07Mr. Speaker pro tem, I know we're actually doing half an hour, so can I make a quick request of how many minutes are left?
00:19Would you need a moment to repeat?
00:22Mr. Speaker pro tem, may I inquire into the remaining time?
00:27The gentleman has 25 minutes remaining.
00:30Thank you. Perfect timing.
00:31Mr. Speaker pro tem, I'm going to try to do a run-through of a couple things here.
00:38I'm going to try to walk through some economics.
00:42Then I'm going to actually try to walk through some warnings that are in the documents that are around us that very few people seem to bother to read.
00:51And then I'm going to actually do some things that are hopeful, because I think sometimes I'm a bit dour, and I don't do enough of this.
01:00So first off, look, August, Republicans, we're going to go out and tell the morality of people's taxes not going up next year.
01:10What we did in the reconciliation budget of incentives to invest in America, to build new plants of equipment, for working people, to have some things to actually draw them back into the labor force.
01:24No tax on tips, no tax on overtime, some of these things.
01:27If you actually look at one of the reasons those things are in there, and we're actually starting to see some of the models of the economic side.
01:35Actually saying some very optimistic things of, we think this is going to change labor force participation, small changes.
01:43The left will actually sort of do a bit of schizophrenia of, you cut spending over here, but too much of this money is borrowed.
01:53I agree, it's too much is borrowed.
01:54I want to cut more spending.
01:55But then you attack us when we try to actually point out misalignment, bad acts.
02:02In fact, we have, what was the report that just came out a couple days ago?
02:05We found, what is it, 2.8 million of our brothers and sisters enrolled in subsidized ACA plans, as well as Medicaid plans.
02:15We're not allowed, they don't want to talk about that, because it sort of screws up their pitch when you actually walk through what we see in the math.
02:22We know the American people believe and understand the morality and the great economics of encouraging those that are able-bodied, able to work, to participate in society.
02:33And if anyone's a geek out there, it's probably four or five years old, University of Chicago, four of their PhD economists, wrote a brilliant paper talking about if you actually ask people to participate in society, in the economy, to take a job,
02:53even if you give them welfare, government subsidies, because they have attachment to the economy, to work, that at the end of 10 years, those who actually had the work requirements actually end up much wealthier and off of government support.
03:12Because it's the morality of learning to get up, building attachment, learning skills, moving up in an organization.
03:18So, but somehow that, I don't, and there was a time that was actually left ethos, the argument of work is moral, and somehow that left the Democrat Party.
03:32So, let's walk through a couple things.
03:35I've used this board for months now.
03:37It'll probably be the last time I use it.
03:42Understand, baseline, over the next 10 years,
03:47according to the Congressional Budget Office,
03:48we're going to spend 86 trillion dollars.
03:55Think of the screaming and mashing of teeth and protests, so they're all ginned up.
04:02You cut,
04:03what is it, 800 billion dollars from this,
04:07and a little bit from some, a couple other things.
04:09It was less
04:11than 2% of that spending.
04:14Are you telling me
04:18that the left doesn't believe
04:21that if you're spending 86 trillion dollars
04:24is your baseline spending?
04:26And understand,
04:28I'm going to show you some of the charts,
04:30how much of this is
04:32basically demographics.
04:34We got old.
04:35Our healthcare costs.
04:36I'm going to show you a couple charts here in a couple moments
04:38that I really want folks to understand.
04:40But for the American people,
04:43when you see someone from the Democratic Party
04:45behind a microphone going,
04:47they cut spending!
04:49It's this
04:50off of a base of this.
04:53It's the lack of understanding.
04:54And look,
04:55one of the points that you keep trying to make
04:58over and over and over and over and over again
04:59is,
05:01was the Democrats' plan
05:03that they wanted to raise taxes on everyone?
05:05Because that was automatic.
05:06That was coming at the end of this year.
05:08Your taxes were going up
05:10back to the pre-2017 tax reform.
05:14Every once in a while you get,
05:15well, you shouldn't have extended the tax policy
05:18for the highest income.
05:20Okay.
05:21But that's
05:22a tiny, tiny portion
05:25of the total dollar amounts.
05:26And look,
05:27when they had control of everything,
05:29I'm,
05:30oh, they didn't do it.
05:31But just from a point,
05:33and this is more for everyone to understand,
05:36particularly even staff,
05:36you see the blue here,
05:39non-defense, defense,
05:41every dime of that is borrowed.
05:43And I think this year
05:45we'll probably borrow,
05:46let's call it $400 billion of Medicare.
05:50So my best estimate,
05:52and we're going to actually hold a contest shortly
05:54to see who can guess
05:55the final borrowing for this year.
05:58And the economy's actually been pretty good.
06:01We're tracking,
06:02we think actually,
06:03customs receipts,
06:05many of you think of it as tariffs.
06:07We may have another $70 billion
06:09on top of baseline.
06:12It's probably going to come at
06:13$2.2 trillion of borrowing this year.
06:17So this doesn't have the tax reform,
06:20many of those things
06:21much built into that base.
06:24But understand,
06:25in this country,
06:27how do I help folks understand,
06:31here's where we're already at,
06:34and this will make sense in a little while.
06:36For every dollar we take in
06:38in tax receipts.
06:41We spend $1.39.
06:47We spend $1.39
06:49for every dollar we take in tax receipts.
06:51But if you saw that previous chart,
06:53you've noticed that only about
06:5524 to 26% is indiscretion,
06:58what we really get to vote on.
07:00That's why you end up having to use
07:02what we call these reconciliation budgets.
07:051974 Budget Control Act,
07:07allows us to move a bill
07:10if it has certain fiscal properties to it
07:13through the Senate
07:14without having to get 60 votes.
07:17It's all a dance to deal with the 60 votes.
07:21You know, if we were actually
07:23a little more honest about math,
07:25maybe we wouldn't have to do this dance.
07:28And why this is important
07:29is I'm a little freaked out
07:32because this is the MedPAC report.
07:37And I know every member of Congress
07:39has read every word of it
07:41because it's really important.
07:44But there's a chart in here
07:45if you actually read the footnotes.
07:49Now look, for anyone that's paying attention,
07:51you know I'm trying to bring
07:53Medicare Advantage back
07:55where the incentives actually are
07:57about helping populations be healthier
07:59and not about risk scoring them
08:02that it's a concentration of illness
08:05but the incentives
08:07that if populations are healthier
08:08the plans can make more money.
08:11But inside here is also a great data point,
08:13Mr. Speaker.
08:14This year we're going to spend
08:16let's call it a trillion dollars
08:18on Medicare.
08:22How many of you would guess
08:23what we're going to spend in seven years?
08:26The model in here says
08:27in seven years
08:29we go from one trillion dollars a year
08:31on Medicare to two trillion.
08:34We double Medicare spending
08:36in seven years.
08:39Now part of that is demographics.
08:42You know, starting in functionally
08:4530 years ago
08:46we started having a lot fewer children.
08:50So today
08:51if we took today
08:53and stepped back 20 years ago
08:54we had about 35 million
08:57of our brothers and sisters
08:58who were 65 30 years ago.
09:01Today we're approaching
09:02about 70 million
09:03of our brothers and sisters
09:04who were 65 and up.
09:05So more than double.
09:06Go back 20 years ago
09:10the number of 18 year olds we have
09:12is pretty much the same
09:13as the number of 18 year olds
09:14we have today.
09:15And next year
09:16the number of 18 year olds
09:17goes down
09:18and the year after that
09:19it goes down
09:20and the year after that
09:21it goes down.
09:23Is that Republican or Democrat
09:24or is it just demographics?
09:27It's a little hard
09:28to campaign on that.
09:29It's a little hard
09:30to attack the other side.
09:31But the fact of the matter is
09:33if we all read our data
09:35we don't have a choice.
09:42This is the
09:43Social Security
09:45Medicare Actuary Report.
09:48Another thing
09:48I know every member here
09:50has actually read.
09:51seven years from now
09:56Medicare Part A
10:00trust fund
10:01which is about
10:0238%
10:04of Medicare spending
10:06the rest comes out
10:06of the general fund
10:07and members participation
10:11I think is about 15%
10:12the fees they pay.
10:14But that 38%
10:16that trust fund
10:17is gone
10:17in seven years.
10:20Meaning hospitals
10:21surgery centers
10:22everyone else
10:2311% cut.
10:25But I know
10:25we're all going to talk
10:26and work about
10:27how we're going to
10:28revolutionize
10:29the cost of health care
10:30except one of the
10:31classic problems
10:32around here
10:33Mr. Speaker
10:33is for some reason
10:36on the left
10:37and many of us
10:40on the right
10:40we talk about health care
10:42as a finance problem.
10:44it's the ACA
10:46was a finance bill
10:48it's who had to pay
10:49who got subsidized
10:50Medicare for all
10:51is a finance bill
10:52I would argue
10:53the Republican alternative
10:54from a few years ago
10:55was a finance bill
10:56it had a little better
10:57actuarial curve
10:58but it was a finance bill
11:00who got subsidized
11:01who has to pay
11:01I beg of our brothers
11:04and sisters around here
11:05open up your brain
11:06we live in a time
11:07of miracles
11:08we're going to have
11:09some conversation
11:09about how do you
11:11change the view
11:12of health care
11:13is it's what we pay
11:15can we change
11:17the cost
11:18by doing it better
11:19faster and cheaper
11:20with technology
11:21our brothers and sisters
11:21being healthier
11:22because if we don't
11:24we have problems
11:25like it's on this chart
11:26today 16%
11:28of all tax receipts
11:30go just to interest
11:32in nine budget years
11:34actually nine years
11:35straight up
11:36in nine years
11:3830% of all US
11:40tax receipts
11:41go just to interest
11:43and heaven forbid
11:45if we had a one point
11:46movement in interest rates
11:47my math is
11:5045% of all tax receipts
11:53would go to interest
11:55so when you see people
11:57come behind these microphones
11:58how many people
11:59are saying
11:59hey
12:00how do we convince
12:03the bond markets
12:05who the bond markets
12:05are basically on the edge
12:07of running this country now
12:08because when you borrow
12:09six billion dollars a day
12:10next year I think we borrow
12:12six and a half
12:13maybe seven billion dollars a day
12:15in nine years
12:16we're over ten billion dollars a day
12:17let's see
12:19if we're six
12:19that's what
12:20seventy
12:21seventy two thousand dollars
12:22a second
12:22and some of the crazy articles
12:29because I have this aggregator
12:32on my news
12:33that basically
12:34a couple left-wing economists
12:36saying
12:36borrowing doesn't matter
12:38people are always willing
12:39to buy US debt
12:41okay
12:41let's pretend these left-wing economists
12:43are right
12:44we can continue to borrow
12:45and borrow and borrow
12:46they purposely sort of forget
12:48the punchline
12:50okay
12:51let's say we could borrow
12:52every
12:52all we
12:54forever
12:54at what point
12:55is there no more
12:57services
12:58purchases
12:59government
13:00helping our brothers and sisters
13:02because it's all covering
13:04the interest costs
13:05on the bonds
13:06so let's say you're
13:08I think a little insane
13:10but you believe
13:11we can just borrow forever
13:12you're a monetarist
13:15but even the fragility
13:16in the monetarist
13:17you saw in the previous
13:18few years of inflation
13:19that their model
13:21didn't work
13:21but additional to that
13:23we're going to pay
13:25the interest
13:26so in nine years
13:30baseline
13:30under
13:31a favorable
13:33interest rate model
13:34thirty percent
13:35of all US tax receipts
13:37go to interest
13:38and God
13:39heaven forbid
13:40if interest rates
13:43were to come up
13:43one percent
13:44because we have to
13:45this year
13:45or this coming year
13:46I think we're going to
13:47refinance
13:47eleven trillion dollars
13:49the year after that
13:49I think it's thirteen
13:51because we stay so short
13:53on the financing term
13:54and we sell short term debt
13:56instead of longer term debt
13:57because it turns out
13:58there's not as big an appetite
14:01so we're in this world
14:02where
14:03nine budget years
14:06ten billion dollars a day
14:10so let's actually
14:11I'm just going to run through
14:12a number of these things
14:13fairly quickly
14:14just to sort of get a point
14:16national health expenditures
14:18as a percentage of GDP
14:19this will make sense
14:21in a moment
14:21in 2033
14:24it's a function
14:26eight what
14:26eight years from now
14:27over twenty percent
14:29of the economy
14:30will just be health care
14:31why
14:36the joint economic committee
14:40two years ago
14:41wrote a report
14:42that I thought I was going to get
14:43the crap kicked out of me
14:45but we spent months
14:46and months
14:47and months
14:47grabbing every bit of literature
14:49and said
14:49can someone tell me
14:51what obesity costs America
14:55what it costs society
14:56what it costs family formation
14:57what it costs
14:58we came up with a number
14:59this is two years ago
15:00of 9.1 trillion
15:03additional health care costs
15:05and we had some mortality statistics
15:08the number of multi-chronic conditions
15:10the misery out there
15:12now what is fascinating
15:13is we have some articles right now
15:16that talking about
15:18that
15:19we may have actually
15:22hit something crazy
15:25and
15:25it's an odd way to phrase it
15:27but it is what the researchers
15:29we may have already hit
15:30what we call peak obesity
15:31so when we published the report
15:36two years ago
15:37we still had about
15:39four or five more years
15:40of growth
15:40of obesity
15:42and some states
15:42actually approaching
15:4350% of their population
15:45being technically obese
15:46under the BMI calculations
15:48looks like in the last 12 months
15:51we may have started
15:52to bend the curve
15:53we're trying to recalculate
15:57is this a sign
15:58of incredible hope
16:00that we know
16:02so much misery
16:03in our society
16:04because there's a brilliant paper
16:05from about seven years ago
16:07saying
16:08leading contributor
16:09to income inequality
16:10in America
16:11turns out
16:12isn't education
16:13turns out it's health
16:15and if you think about it
16:20the cascade of
16:21the cost of someone
16:24with severe diabetes
16:25when we already know
16:26diabetes
16:26is 33% of US healthcare
16:28what if things like this
16:30actually could help
16:31our brothers and sisters
16:32is this Republican
16:34or Democrat
16:35it's just good policy
16:36it's just always been
16:37uncomfortable to talk about
16:39and maybe the society
16:41is starting to open up
16:42saying hey
16:42maybe a healthier society
16:44actually is a really good
16:45really moral thing
16:47so look
16:48as we walk through these
16:52I want to come back
16:54and sort of hit
16:56a punchline here
16:58these charts have been
17:03available to us
17:05for years
17:05the curve keeps getting steeper
17:08so when you have someone say
17:11I'm a protector of Medicare
17:13great
17:14I'm with you
17:15it's an earned benefit
17:16we made a societal promise
17:17are you telling the truth
17:19about its financing
17:20oh David
17:21we can't do that
17:22someone will say something
17:23mean about us
17:24so what also
17:26in seven years
17:29also is empty
17:31the social security trust fund
17:33I'm sure you all
17:36dove into
17:38the social security
17:39Medicare actuary report
17:40and saw the point in there
17:42where it says
17:42in 2032
17:442033
17:45actually we think
17:46it's 2032
17:47our brothers and sisters
17:51on social security
17:51take a 24% cut
17:53our model says
17:55we double senior poverty
17:56in America
17:57absolutely immoral
17:59but have you also read
18:02the papers
18:03the scale
18:04of tax hikes
18:06of policy
18:07now
18:08is the left
18:10offering to work
18:11with those of us
18:11on the right
18:12who are willing
18:13to step on the third rail
18:14and do the moral thing
18:16to actually take on these
18:18hell no
18:19I've talked to
18:23so many people
18:24who are
18:25ways and means
18:26and other things
18:26with me
18:27who basically
18:28look at me
18:29and tear
18:29and run out
18:29of the room
18:30because the political
18:31consultants care more
18:32about
18:33the power
18:34of the politics
18:35than the fact
18:38that in seven years
18:40Medicare is
18:41two trillion dollars
18:42a year
18:42in seven years
18:44the Medicare trust fund
18:45is empty
18:45in seven years
18:46the social security
18:47trust fund
18:47is empty
18:48and one of the rough
18:49numbers we had
18:50is the first full year
18:52just if you wanted
18:53to backfill
18:54that shortfall
18:56on social security
18:56is six hundred
18:57and eighteen billion dollars
18:58so basically
18:59what is that
19:00two thirds of
19:01what the entire
19:02defense budget is
19:03there's a lack
19:04of understanding
19:05of the scale
19:06of almost
19:09the dystopianism
19:10that comes from
19:11what happens
19:12when these trust funds
19:13are empty
19:13hey Mr. Speaker
19:14pro tem
19:14may I make
19:15an inquiry
19:16in how many minutes
19:17I have left
19:17the gentleman
19:22has six minutes
19:23remaining
19:23thank you Mr. Speaker
19:25I'll learn to
19:26talk faster
19:27but the poor person
19:28trying to take my words
19:29down I apologize
19:29too
19:30I can sometimes
19:30I'm going to skip
19:31over some of the other
19:32charts
19:33you don't all
19:33you get the punchline
19:35in the next decade
19:40the vast majority
19:42of debt
19:42is driven by interest
19:44healthcare costs
19:46and we're often
19:50very uncomfortable
19:51to talk about it
19:52so let's actually talk
19:53about things
19:54that are great
19:55that if we would get
19:56policy right
19:57can lower that healthcare
19:59cost
19:59not just argument
20:01about who gets
20:02subsidized
20:02who gets financed
20:03be really good
20:06for society
20:06really good
20:07for the budget
20:07so you all saw
20:08the economist article
20:09last couple days
20:11talking about
20:12the miracle
20:12of how much cancer
20:13that the statistical
20:15benefits
20:16we're having
20:16on the number
20:17of cures
20:18particularly lung cancer
20:19blood cancers
20:19and their model
20:21that we are
20:22on the cusp
20:22of having
20:23continued
20:23major
20:24continued
20:25mortgage or break foods
20:26you all saw
20:27this article
20:27a couple days ago
20:28about a Microsoft
20:30platform
20:30I didn't even know
20:31they were specializing
20:32in this
20:32and what was
20:33stunning about
20:34the data sets
20:35they had in here
20:36AI system
20:38diagnosed patients
20:39four times more
20:40accurately
20:41than a human doctor
20:43now I just upset
20:46some of my brothers
20:46and sisters
20:47in the doc caucus
20:48but the data
20:49is the data
20:50should we
20:51Mr. Speaker
20:52legalize technology
20:53if I have something
20:55I can blow
20:56into
20:56called a breath
20:57biopsy
20:58if it's statistically
21:00as accurate
21:01or more accurate
21:01than a human
21:02and knows what I have
21:05should it be allowed
21:06to prescribe
21:06uncomfortable
21:08but it would help
21:09crash the cost
21:10of healthcare
21:11it would actually
21:12help us
21:13move some of the facts
21:15that we have shortage
21:15of medical professionals
21:17we're on the cusp
21:20of these things
21:20matter of fact
21:21many of these things
21:21like that technology
21:23has been around
21:23for five years
21:24except it's functioning
21:25illegal
21:26we don't reimburse
21:27it and we don't
21:28allow it to prescribe
21:29we are on the cusp
21:30a few minutes ago
21:32an hour ago
21:33Altman
21:35OpenAI
21:36was down the hallway
21:37he and I had a few
21:38minutes of conversation
21:39about a new
21:40healthcare stack
21:41that's going to go public
21:42in about a month
21:43and he seemed
21:45incredibly optimistic
21:47that its accuracy
21:48will be off the charts
21:50should we legalize
21:53the use of technology
21:54to help our society
21:56be healthier
21:57should we allow
21:58it to prescribe
21:59it's uncomfortable
22:02because this place
22:03is a protection racket
22:05you've got to understand
22:06congress is mostly
22:07about one thing
22:08it's about money
22:08and the left
22:11pretends it isn't
22:12the right pretends
22:13it's about money
22:14and when you start
22:15to say
22:15hey maybe we could
22:16use technology
22:17as a competition
22:18to help our brothers
22:19and sisters be healthier
22:19and therefore
22:20change the cost
22:21of healthcare
22:21someone's going to
22:22look at you and say
22:22but I make money on that
22:24you're going to now
22:25have me compete against
22:26a data system
22:27that's more accurate
22:27than I am
22:28but over and over
22:30new Apple watch
22:33AI model can
22:34reveal hidden
22:36health conditions
22:36here's a couple
22:37of the things
22:38I've been
22:38most interested in
22:41last couple years
22:42great article
22:43I have a huge one
22:44I did a whole speech
22:45on it a couple years ago
22:46AI discovered
22:47a whole new category
22:48of antibiotics
22:49so you remember
22:51we were all panic
22:51stricken
22:52that we had diseases
22:54bacterial infections
22:55that we didn't have
22:56antibiotics for
22:57the antibiotics
22:58weren't working
22:59and AI designed
23:00a whole new category
23:02of antibiotics
23:03that in the literature
23:04said it would have
23:04taken humans
23:0520 years to develop
23:06instead of being
23:10afraid of the technology
23:11maybe we get our
23:14heads straightened up
23:15saying in a society
23:16where we have a shortage
23:17of young people
23:18our brother
23:20our baby boomers
23:22like me with gray hair
23:23we're getting older
23:24we're going to consume
23:24a lot more health care
23:25can we embrace
23:27the technology
23:28and that technology
23:31lets us free
23:32when you start to realize
23:34the things are going on
23:35we just had
23:35a doctor
23:38a radiologist
23:39in our office
23:39walking us through
23:40a statistical abstract
23:41on breast cancers
23:43and the scans
23:44and showing
23:44that his AI platform
23:46is remarkably
23:47more accurate
23:48cheaper
23:50faster
23:50and more accurate
23:52why wouldn't we
23:54embrace that
23:54except we don't
23:55reimburse it
23:55because the barriers
23:58to entry here
23:59are protection rackets
24:00saying
24:01we're not fighting
24:02for what's the fastest
24:03bestest
24:04cheapest
24:04we're often here
24:06because we know
24:08our incumbency
24:09and look
24:11we really are
24:14on the edge
24:16of miracles
24:17how do I get
24:20the left
24:21the right
24:22to understand
24:23the math is the math
24:25demographics are the primary driver
24:27of US sovereign debt
24:28now it's hard to campaign
24:31against the other side
24:31on that
24:32but yeah maybe we could take
24:33a couple months off
24:34and actually do good quality policy
24:36and legalize
24:38properly vetted
24:40properly certified AI
24:42to prescribe
24:43the wearables
24:45this August
24:46I'm going to do an experiment
24:47with this aura ring
24:48and I'm buying
24:49some Dexcoms
24:50to manage my
24:51have you all seen
24:52the app
24:53where you can take
24:54a picture of your food
24:54and it calculates
24:56its glucose
24:56and its calories
24:57how do we create
25:00the incentives
25:00maybe we should look
25:01at the ACA
25:02and instead of just smoking
25:03in three age categories
25:05we could add a fifth category
25:06that's an incentive
25:07for our brothers and sisters
25:09that if you manage your health
25:1016% of US healthcare
25:12is people not taking
25:13their drugs
25:14for their hypertension
25:16for their
25:17their statin
25:1916% is over
25:21$600 billion a year
25:23there are solutions
25:25we can make
25:27a difference
25:28embrace the technology
25:30change the cost
25:31have a healthier society
25:33and it's the most powerful thing
25:34we can do
25:34for US sovereign debt
25:35with that Mr. Speaker
25:36I yield back
25:37the gentleman yields
25:40and it's the most important
25:43km2
25:43here are the main
25:44MVC
25:45for this
25:46company
25:47as a place
25:48on high- gluten
25:49inussa
25:50and the students
25:51have a different
25:52point of view
25:53this
25:53time
25:54let's say
25:55as a way
25:55of demand
25:56and
25:56there are
25:57of the
25:58state
25:58which
25:59are
25:59and
26:00from paths
26:00and
26:01there is
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