- yesterday
Get ready to celebrate! Congress has delivered a win for President Trump with the new tax and spending bill. This legislation will bring relief to Americans and boost the economy. Don't miss out on the positive impact it will have on your finances!
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00:00There have been many Supermans, supermen, and now, after much anticipation, there is another.
00:06And the new Superman movie is pretty great, and it's bringing exactly what we are looking for, hope.
00:13We'll tell you why on Pop Culture Happy Hour.
00:15Listen on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.
00:21Hi, this is Kristen in Gettysburg, Pennsylvania,
00:25where my two-year-old and I are taking a walk along the Gettysburg battlefield.
00:30Starting and ending at the Eternal Peace Light Memorial.
00:34This podcast was recorded at...
00:361.07 p.m. on Thursday, July 3rd, 2025.
00:40Things may have changed by the time you've listened,
00:42but we will be drinking ice-cold water on our drive home.
00:46Enjoy the show, and happy Fourth of July.
00:52Yes, happy Fourth of July, everybody.
00:55Stay cool out there.
00:57And Dominico's not going to say it.
00:58Nope.
00:59Nope.
01:02Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast.
01:04I'm Deepa Shiveram.
01:05I cover the White House.
01:06I'm Tamara Keith.
01:07I also cover the White House.
01:08And I'm Dominico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent.
01:11And today on the show, we're trying to make sense of a busy week in Washington.
01:16Tam, let's start off with Congress.
01:18There's been a lot of grumbling, but despite that, Republicans are on a path to deliver President Trump's tax cut and spending bill.
01:25And this, as we know, is a massive bill that will extend Trump's tax cuts from the first term, add new spending for immigration and the military.
01:34These are all campaign promises by the president.
01:36So what do you anticipate the president will have next on his domestic agenda?
01:41Always be selling.
01:42He is going to be selling this package.
01:45He is going to tell the American people exactly what he is giving them.
01:50And if he doesn't, he risks people forgetting about it because the news cycle is so relentless.
01:57And in the case of this bill, it's an extension of an existing tax cut, which means truly a lot of people may not notice the benefits side of it.
02:06I will say that as we are taping, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is in the midst of a marathon of holding the House floor, talking about the bill, talking in specifics about how many people might be kicked off of Medicaid in the districts of moderate Republicans and Republicans who they are hoping to unseat in the midterms.
02:29So this is a very live and active political moment.
02:34It's really difficult to argue a negative in politics, right?
02:37I mean, they're saying, you know, hey, this bill passed and you're not getting a tax increase is a lot different than saying, hey, I just cut your taxes.
02:45It's hard to run on something that's like everything stays the same.
02:49Yes.
02:49And the remarkable thing, though, is that even historically, when there have been tax cuts, think about the Bush tax cuts where they literally sent checks to people.
02:58Or Obama actually had a really big middle class tax cut as part of the stimulus bill.
03:04Those tax cuts, people forgot about them very quickly.
03:09There wasn't a lot of political benefit.
03:11In fact, a lot of people thought that their taxes had gone up under Obama, even though they actually went down.
03:17And one unique thing about this mega bill, this one big, beautiful bill, as President Trump has called it, is that it doesn't just contain tax cuts.
03:27It also contains spending cuts.
03:30That is different from, for instance, the Bush tax cuts where they they didn't want people to associate cutting taxes with losing benefits.
03:39In this case, it's all tied up.
03:41It is all tied up in one bill.
03:43And according to an estimate from the Congressional Budget Office, up to 12 million people could lose their health coverage as a result of this legislation, though over a period of years.
03:54Yeah. And this is something that, you know, for the president, he's about to go, you know, celebrate this this victory and take a lot of credit for it.
04:01But to your point, there's definitely still parts of this bill that have attracted some controversy.
04:06The cuts to Medicaid, but also how much this adds to the deficit was another big sticking point for many members of Congress.
04:13Absolutely. Many of the Republicans who earlier this week said there was no way they could support this bill because it added too much to the deficit.
04:22Overnight, they folded.
04:24They folded under pressure from the president or persuasion from the president.
04:28You know, he is his own best lobbyist.
04:31Well, Domenico, I mean, there might be some risks here, right?
04:33Because think back to 2017, you know, Trump comes into office.
04:37It's his first term.
04:38He passes the first controversial tax cut bill through Congress.
04:41And then come 2018, Democrats took back the House and a really big victory for that side of the aisle.
04:48So what are some of the political risks ahead of the midterms for 2026?
04:52Well, I think it's really interesting that Democrats are now pivoting to make this a broader conversation about health care, not just Medicaid specifically in that entitlement.
05:01And that's what we heard, as Tam alluded to, Hakeem Jeffries' speech on the floor of the House opposing this bill, the minority leader.
05:11You know, we should look at a little bit of the history of health care in midterms because back in 2010,
05:16when the Affordable Care Act was going through and the Tea Party fervor was happening and all those Tea Party town halls,
05:24the ACA then, then, you know, called Obamacare, was a net negative, right?
05:30It was only 35 percent of people had a positive view of the ACA, according to KFF, which tracks sentiment on this.
05:38It's now at a record high. 66 percent have a favorable view of the ACA.
05:44So, you know, we are eight years to the month of John McCain's thumbs down on the repeal and replace bill that never wound up getting put in place.
05:54John McCain, the late Republican senator from Arizona.
05:58So it had become it had turned into a positive issue for Democrats and a negative one for Republicans.
06:04And when you look at the polling on Medicaid, it's very well liked.
06:08People say that it's working well.
06:10Two thirds of people say that they themselves or they know someone who has been on Medicaid.
06:16So this is really difficult when the Congressional Budget Office says that some almost 12 million people would lose health insurance coverage over the next decade.
06:26And, of course, Medicaid being the program that provides health insurance for about 70 million low income, elderly and disabled Americans.
06:34One politically smart thing about the way they structured this, though, is that the tax cuts are right away.
06:39The cuts to Medicaid and food assistance, those come later.
06:43And and often voters have a hard time drawing a direct line from some problem that they have three or four or five years from now to a piece of legislation.
06:54Yeah, I'm really curious, especially because, you know, we're talking about midterms now, but it's still July 2025.
07:00Like there's a long road to go before regular voters start tuning in to like, oh, my my congressman or congresswoman is up for reelection.
07:08And how many of these points that, you know, Democrats are arguing and Republicans are arguing are actually going to be still sticky by then, you know, is definitely questionable.
07:16Well, there's going to be a messaging war that happens between now and then.
07:20You know, the polling has shown mostly opposition to this bill in aggregate.
07:25But when you drill down on some of the more specific issues, as the White House will point out, there's some more support for things like work requirements for Medicaid.
07:33So it's going to depend on how the message is framed.
07:36And we're going to see that take place over these next several months.
07:39I want to pivot because there was also immigration news this week.
07:42The president went down to Florida for the opening of a new migrant detention center.
07:47Tam, tell us about what happened on that visit.
07:50Yeah. So this was a temporary facility that was built from start to finish in about a week on an out of use airstrip in the middle of the Everglades.
08:00They are repurposing FEMA trailers.
08:02There are these huge tents that have air conditioning and beds and also interior walls made of chain link fencing.
08:09This is a detention facility.
08:11It was built by the state of Florida.
08:13The state is going to be reimbursed with FEMA funding.
08:17And it is truly in the middle of the Everglades, which is something that President Trump seemed to really like.
08:26He liked the idea.
08:27He kept lingering on the idea that it's surrounded by alligators and venomous snakes.
08:33It's known as Alligator Alcatraz, which is very appropriate because I looked outside and that's not a place I want to go hiking anytime soon.
08:43But very soon, this facility will house some of the most menacing migrants, some of the most vicious people on the planet.
08:50We're surrounded by miles of treacherous swampland.
08:53And the only way out is really deportation.
08:56And a lot of these people are self-deporting.
08:59Really, the message coming out of this was, why would you want to put yourself through Alligator Alcatraz, as they call it, when you could just self-deport?
09:10There was a real emphasis on self-deportation.
09:12In theory, this is a facility that could house up to 3,000 people and is supposed to be just a temporary facility that people would move through on their way out of the country.
09:23But President Trump was talking about, hey, other states should do this.
09:27Maybe these should be made permanent.
09:29So this is very much part of the president's broader message about wanting to get those mass deportations that he promised when he ran for office.
09:39Yeah. But, Domenico, I mean, we talked a little bit about this on the pod yesterday where, you know, there's some ups and downs, I guess, with how Americans feel about how President Trump's immigration policies are being implemented.
09:52It's not exactly like a straight shot of approval across the board.
09:56No, definitely not.
09:57And only 43 percent said that they approve of the job that he's doing in handling immigration.
10:01Fifty-four percent of people said that they think ICE, Immigration and Customs Enforcement, is going too far in enforcing these rules on immigration.
10:11This idea that we've heard Tom Homan, the border czar for Trump, say is that workplace enforcement is something that they're going to continue to do.
10:18For example, while there's less support publicly for deporting people who seem to be just doing their jobs and happen to be in the country without legal authorization and have been convicted of no crimes,
10:30they're fine with making examples of some people to get the message out more broadly not to come.
10:37Yeah. And President Trump talks about this as the worst of the worst.
10:40But the reality is that the vast majority of people that are being swept up in immigration raids at this point are people who are in the country without legal status,
10:50but otherwise have been living their lives, raising their families, working and not committing crimes.
10:57They are not criminals other than being in the country without legal authorization.
11:02Yeah. I want to switch gears just to talk about foreign policy for a bit, because there's also some news that's been happening, will continue to happen.
11:09The U.S. bombed Iran about a week and a half ago, and that was, you know, the U.S. directly joining a conflict between Israel and Iran.
11:16Then there was a ceasefire, and Tam, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is set to visit the White House next week.
11:23So the conversation will obviously be continuing. What are you watching for for that visit?
11:27Yeah. President Trump has said it'll be a little bit of a celebration.
11:31You know, the president really wants to be done with Iran.
11:34He is doubling and tripling down on the idea that the Iranian nuclear program was totally obliterated, that he could make a deal with them, but he doesn't need to because really they don't want nuclear weapons anymore.
11:48That is not totally based in reality. Iran has kicked out the U.N.'s nuclear inspection agency.
11:56There are signs potentially that this is not as done as the president wants it to be.
12:01So that's part of the conversation. A bigger part, though, is also that the conflict in Gaza is still going on.
12:09President Trump wants a ceasefire.
12:11President Trump is now saying on social media that Israel has at least tentatively agreed to a short-term ceasefire with Hamas.
12:21We don't have a lot of clarity on that from the region, but in theory, that will be a bulk of the conversation when Prime Minister Netanyahu visits.
12:29Yeah. And, Domenico, I mean, going back to that poll that NPR-PBS News Marist put out this week, you know, there were some opinions also about the decision for the U.S. to intervene in this conflict in the first place.
12:40Yeah. People were really split down the middle, 50-50, literally, on whether they agree with the strikes or disagree with the strikes.
12:47Three-quarters of people, though, said that they are worried about retaliation, that if something were to happen in the United States or to service members abroad or at embassies, things like that, it's something that they are concerned about and would likely have some degree of political consequences, which is a reason Trump is glad that this is not in the headlines anymore.
13:08A significant portion of his base does not want a prolonged, protracted conflict in the Middle East.
13:15So he was happy to make these strikes a one-and-done deal and say, OK, we've all moved on.
13:20Their nuclear program is obliterated, quote-unquote, even though all of the analyses so far have shown that the program may have been set back but not necessarily completely destroyed or obliterated.
13:32You know, they also found that the survey that 48 percent of people think that Iran is a major threat, 39 percent characterized Iran as a minor threat.
13:42I thought something interesting sort of jumped out in this.
13:45Of Gen Z, one-fifth, 20 percent said that Iran represents no threat at all.
13:51They were the largest group to say that.
13:53I think it's a real turning of, you know, how people are viewing conflicts in the Middle East.
13:58Yeah, I mean, it's a generational shift, obviously.
14:01Huge.
14:02They weren't around during the Iran hostage situation.
14:06Also, neither were we.
14:07We weren't either.
14:09All right, we're going to take a quick break and back in a moment.
14:13This summer, ditch land.
14:15With shortwave's sea camp.
14:17Because when's the last time you had an ocean getaway?
14:19Every Monday, we bring you insights from a different ocean zone.
14:23Starting with the sunlit surface, until we hit the deep sea floor, where there's marine snow, weird critters, carbon sinks, and so much more.
14:31But first, you got to take the plunge.
14:33Follow NPR's shortwave, wherever you get your podcasts.
14:38Have you heard people saying things like palm-colored people?
14:42That would be white people.
14:44Or unalive.
14:45Could be, depending on context, it could be kill, murder, suicide, anything related to death.
14:51Listen to how self-censorship online impacts the way we talk about real-life issues.
14:58That's on Code Switch from NPR, wherever you get your podcasts.
15:03I want to tell you a dirty little secret.
15:05Gen Z is not getting it on.
15:08Gen Z is having sex later in less than past generations.
15:11But I would say that they are, in general, not less horny.
15:14But wait, then why aren't they having sex?
15:17Fear around sex really doesn't lead people to want to have it.
15:20Why might Gen Z be scared of sex?
15:23Listen to the It's Been a Minute podcast today.
15:25And we're back, and it's time for Can't Let It Go.
15:30We know it's Thursday, but in the great NPR politics podcast tradition, before the 4th of July every year, we mark Independence Day.
15:39Yes!
15:39The classic film from 1996, where Bill Pullman is president, and he inspires a ragtag group of pilots to defeat the aliens invading Earth with a rousing speech.
15:49Just as NPR for years read the Declaration of Independence on Independence Day, we, too, mark the holiday by reading this speech.
15:56So, without further ado.
16:00Good morning.
16:02In less than an hour, aircraft from here will join others from around the world, and you will be launching the largest aerial battle in this history of mankind.
16:10Mankind.
16:14Mankind.
16:15That word should have new meaning for all of us today.
16:18We can't be consumed by our petty differences anymore.
16:21We will be united in our common interests.
16:27Perhaps it's fate that today is the 4th of July, and you will once again be fighting for our freedom.
16:34Not from tyranny, oppression, or persecution, but from annihilation.
16:38We're fighting for our right to live.
16:44To exist.
16:45And should we win the day, the 4th of July will no longer be known as an American holiday, but as the day when the world declared in one voice.
16:54We will not go quietly into the night.
16:56We will not vanish without a fight.
16:59We're going to live on.
17:00We're going to survive.
17:02Today, we celebrate our Independence Day.
17:08And with that, we hope you have a nice holiday weekend.
17:11We will be in your feeds tomorrow, though, with some reporting from our friends at The Indicator from Planet Money.
17:17I'm Diva Shiburam.
17:18I cover the White House.
17:19I'm Tamara Keith.
17:20I also cover the White House.
17:21And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent.
17:24Thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.
17:26All right, beam me up.
17:34All right, Scotty.
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