Azerbaijan: The Next NATO Proxy War Against Russia?

Thinking Global

Is Azerbaijan becoming the next major front in the West's proxy war against Russia? In this eye-opening documentary, we explore how rising tensions between Azerbaijan and Russia are reshaping the geopolitics of the South Caucasus.  From the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to Azerbaijan’s growing ties with NATO and Israel, and the recent media crackdown against Russian outlets, we uncover the historical, economic, and strategic dynamics pushing Baku into a new global confrontation.  Backed by vital pipelines, Western energy deals, and its own regional ambitions, Azerbaijan may now be stepping into the role Ukraine once filled—a flashpoint in a global struggle between empires.  We investigate the roles of Russia, Iran, Turkey, and the West in this unfolding crisis, and ask: Is a new Cold War coming to the Caucasus? Stay tuned as we reveal how proxy wars are being redefined—and what it means for the future of global power.  👉 Don’t forget to Like, Comment, and Subscribe for more geopolitical deep dives.   #azerbaijan #russia #proxywar #nato #nagornokarabakh  #geopolitics #CaucasusConflict #ukrainewar #RussiaVsWest #coldwar2 #baku #moscow #southcaucasus #energypolitics #globalconflict #usvsrussia #NATOStrategy #russiaukraine #azerbaijanarmenia  #IranAzerbaijan #middleeasttensions #PipelinePolitics #WarInTheCaucasus  #WesternImperialism   #worldwariii

Transcript

00:00The world watches Ukraine. While the bombs fall in Donetsk and diplomats argue over Crimea,

00:05another front is quietly opening to the south. One that could redraw borders, fracture alliances,

00:11and ignite the next major proxy war against Russia. In the oil-rich strategically critical

00:16South Caucasus, the Republic of Azerbaijan is escalating tensions with Moscow. Arrests,

00:22expulsions, diplomatic warfare, and behind it all, the familiar shadow of NATO. This is not a

00:27simple story of allies and enemies. It's a tangled web of oil pipelines, ethnic conflicts,

00:34Western manipulation, and the legacy of empire. Azerbaijan may be small, but it sits on tectonic

00:40plates of global power, and as cracks widen, the pressure builds. This is the full-story geopolitical,

00:46economic, and ideological of how Azerbaijan is becoming the next battleground in the long war

00:52against Russia. To understand this conflict, we must first understand the map. The South

00:58Caucasus is one of the most geopolitically sensitive corridors on Earth. It connects the Black Sea to

01:03the Caspian, Europe to Central Asia, and Russia to the Middle East. Azerbaijan is a keystone in this

01:09regional architecture launchpad, a buffer zone, and a gatekeeper all at once. Its capital, Baku, sits atop

01:16vast energy reserves that feed pipelines stretching westward, deliberately bypassing Russia to fuel

01:22Europe. The Baku-da-Balisa-Sayan and Trans-Anatolian natural gas pipeline are lifelines for European

01:29energy security in the age of sanctions. But oil and gas aren't the only assets. The region is also a

01:36military chessboard. NATO has quietly built relations with Azerbaijan through joint exercises

01:42and intelligence cooperation. While Turkey acts as a proxy within a proxy expanding its influence on

01:48NATO's behalf. For Russia, this is an encroachment. For the West, it's an opportunity. For Azerbaijan,

01:56it's leverage. Azerbaijan was once part of the Soviet Union, integrated into Moscow's command economy,

02:03intelligence network, and military structure. After the USSR collapsed in 1991, Baku embraced

02:10independence, but not entirely neutrality. The post-Soviet vacuum drew in new players.

02:16Western oil companies rushed in. Turkey courted cultural and linguistic ties. Israel and the U.S.

02:22developed discrete military relationships. Meanwhile, Russia tried to maintain its grip through arms deals,

02:29media outlets like Sputnik, and the deployment of peacekeepers in Agorna-Karabakh.

02:33The leadership of Ilham Eliev, who has ruled since 2003, has perfected the art of multi-vector

02:40diplomacy, playing powers off one another for maximum benefit. But in recent years, the balance

02:46has shifted. Azerbaijan has clearly leaned westward, emboldened by victories and eager to break free of

02:52Russia's shadow. The conflict in Agorna-Karabakh is the defining fault line between Azerbaijan and Russia.

03:00This mountainous majority-Armenian enclave was the site of two wars in the 1990s and again in 2020.

03:09In both cases, it pitted Azerbaijan against Armenia and indirectly, Turkey and the west against Russia.

03:16In the 2020 war, Azerbaijan launched a surprise offensive. Backed by Turkish drones and Israeli

03:23intelligence, it decisively defeated Armenian forces. Russia's reaction? Peacekeeping mission that

03:30preserved Russian presence without punishing Azerbaijan? But that neutrality came at a cost.

03:36Armenia began to question its long-standing alliance with Moscow. Now, in a post-Ukraine world,

03:43Armenia has swung westward, and Russia is diplomatically isolated.

03:46Baku sees an opening. Yerevan feels betrayed. And Moscow is caught in a geopolitical trap of its own

03:54making. Nagorno-Karabakh may have calmed, but the embers still glow. In June 2025, a dramatic

04:02escalation shocked both diplomats and analysts. Azerbaijan arrested Adin Gassanov, head of Sputnik

04:09Azerbaijan, Russian state media outlet. His office was raided, journalists detained, and operations

04:15suspended. Russia protested. Foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova called it a political

04:22provocation. Moscow demanded consular access Baku denied it. This was no misunderstanding,

04:29was a direct challenge to Russian influence. By cracking down on Sputnik, Azerbaijan attacked one

04:35of Moscow's key instruments of soft power. And unlike previous disputes, this one played out publicly.

04:41Western media barely covered it. But for Russia, it was a declaration of independence from its

04:47cultural and informational reach. Azerbaijan was saying, we don't need you anymore. What makes this

04:53dangerous is that no one wants to call it what it is, a proxy conflict. Modern proxy wars rely on

05:00plausible deniability economic support, intelligence sharing, and ideological warfare without formal

05:06alliances. Azerbaijan fits this model perfectly. It receives Israeli drones, NATO standard equipment,

05:12U.S. political cover, and EU energy contracts. In return, it helps weaken two adversaries,

05:18Russia and Iran. There are no NATO flags in Baku, but the signals are clear. The West is cultivating

05:25Azerbaijan as an alternative partner in a region. It can no longer control through Armenia or Georgia alone.

05:31Russia, meanwhile, is cornered. If it retaliates militarily, it risks opening a second front. If

05:39it stays silent, it loses credibility. Welcome to the Cold War, Caucuses edition.

05:44None of this would be possible without oil and gas. Azerbaijan's economy is built on hydrocarbons.

05:52Over 90% of exports come from energy. This makes Baku vulnerable and powerful. Since the war in Ukraine,

05:59Europe has pivoted hard away from Russian gas. Azerbaijan's role as a supplier has surged.

06:06Brussels even signed new deals to double imports via the Southern Gas Corridor. This gives Azerbaijan

06:11leverage not just over Russia, but over the EU. And it makes Baku more valuable than ever to NATO

06:17strategists. BP, Chevron, and ExxonMobil have multi-billion dollar stakes in Azerbaijan's oil fields.

06:25These corporations, along with Turkish, British, and Israeli investors, form the economic arm of the

06:31proxy network. Azerbaijan may wave its own flag. But its gas flows West End, so do its allegiances.

06:39But the West's goals go beyond Russia. Iran is also in the crosshairs. Azerbaijan shares a long border

06:45with Iran, and relations have often been tense. Tehran accuses Baku of hosting Israeli intelligence,

06:52stirring ethnic unrest among its Azeri population, and militarizing the border region. In return,

06:59Azerbaijan accuses Iran of backing Armenia and undermining its sovereignty. The US and Israel

07:05have quietly encouraged this rift-seeing Azerbaijan as a northern platform for containing Iran. Iran has

07:11responded with military drills, cyber threats, and diplomatic warnings. If a full-blown confrontation

07:17between Iran and NATO ever occurs, Azerbaijan may play the same role Poland plays in Eastern Europe.

07:24A forward operating state in a proxy war. This triangle Russia, Iran, Azerbaijanis, a powder keg.

07:33Azerbaijan has made its move. The arrest of journalists. The rejection of Moscow's influence.

07:39The deeper ties with NATO powers. The steady exclusion of both Iran and Russia from its political orbit.

07:46Moscow may retaliate, perhaps not with troops, but with cyber attacks, economic blackmail, or covert

07:53operations. It could shift support to internal Azerbaijani opposition, or pivot back toward Armenia to

07:59re-establish leverage in the Caucasus. The West for now will play innocent. But its fingerprints are

08:06everywhere in the weapons. The energy contracts, the diplomatic statements, and the silences. This is

08:12a slow-motion proxy war. The next moves are already in motion. The war in Ukraine showed us that borders

08:19are not fixed, alliances are not sacred, and proxy wars are not relics of the past. The Caucasus is the

08:26next theater in a larger conflict that spans continents and ideologies. Azerbaijan is playing a dangerous game

08:34with powerful friends and powerful enemies. For the West, it is a tool. For Russia, a threat. For Iran,

08:42a liability. For itself, perhaps a future battleground. And tell us in the comments,

08:47is Azerbaijan the next Ukraine, or something even more dangerous? And don't forget to like the video

08:53and subscribe to the channel to keep thinking the world how it really is.

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Transcript

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