- 5/29/2025
🕊️
🎙️ Alexander Mercouris breaks down a tense and pivotal moment in global geopolitics: Russia has forced a second round of talks in Istanbul, pushing hard for major concessions from the U.S. regarding NATO's presence near its borders. 🇷🇺📜 As Moscow ramps up diplomatic pressure, it warns that escalatory moves—like potential Taurus missile strikes on Russian territory—could be met with powerful countermeasures. 🚀
The looming talks come at a time when Europe edges closer to deeper involvement in the Ukraine conflict, and threats of long-range missile deliveries to Kyiv stir fears of direct confrontation. 🇺🇸🇩🇪 As Russia draws red lines and diplomacy teeters, the world watches to see if the West will bend—or risk further escalation. 🌍⚖️
#AlexanderMercouris #RussiaNATO #IstanbulTalks #TaurusMissiles #UkraineWarUpdate #MoscowDemands #Geopolitics #RussiaUSA #NATOExpansion #PeaceTalks #DiplomacyCrisis #TaurusStrikeThreat #USRussiaTensions #MilitaryEscalation #GlobalSecurity #EasternEuropeConflict #UkraineCrisis #NATOPressure #WarOrPeace #WorldOnEdge
🎙️ Alexander Mercouris breaks down a tense and pivotal moment in global geopolitics: Russia has forced a second round of talks in Istanbul, pushing hard for major concessions from the U.S. regarding NATO's presence near its borders. 🇷🇺📜 As Moscow ramps up diplomatic pressure, it warns that escalatory moves—like potential Taurus missile strikes on Russian territory—could be met with powerful countermeasures. 🚀
The looming talks come at a time when Europe edges closer to deeper involvement in the Ukraine conflict, and threats of long-range missile deliveries to Kyiv stir fears of direct confrontation. 🇺🇸🇩🇪 As Russia draws red lines and diplomacy teeters, the world watches to see if the West will bend—or risk further escalation. 🌍⚖️
#AlexanderMercouris #RussiaNATO #IstanbulTalks #TaurusMissiles #UkraineWarUpdate #MoscowDemands #Geopolitics #RussiaUSA #NATOExpansion #PeaceTalks #DiplomacyCrisis #TaurusStrikeThreat #USRussiaTensions #MilitaryEscalation #GlobalSecurity #EasternEuropeConflict #UkraineCrisis #NATOPressure #WarOrPeace #WorldOnEdge
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NewsTranscript
00:00Good day. Today is Thursday, 29th May 2025. We are coming to the end of May, another incredibly
00:08complicated month in the Ukrainian conflict. And we are seeing a degree of complication and
00:17intricacy and intrigue around the negotiations or supposed negotiations taking place between
00:25Russia and Ukraine, which, to be frank, makes the head spin. Well, let's first of all start with
00:32President Trump. We had those very angry messages on Truth Social in which he appeared to criticise
00:40President Putin, though people have disregarded the fact that in those same Truth Social posts,
00:47he'd also made certain, frankly, uncomplimentary comments about President Zelensky of Ukraine as
00:54well. But the one that people remember, the one that stands out, is the one in which he spoke about
01:01President Putin having gone crazy. And he followed that statement about President Putin having
01:10apparently lost his mind over Ukraine and conducting savage attacks against the Ukrainians, against
01:19Kiev missile and drone and other attacks against Kiev. Anyway, he followed that up. Donald Trump
01:26followed that up with further statements, including a statement that he made to the media, in which he
01:35again appeared to float the possibility that he might be considering sanctions against Russia. And then
01:43we got a information from CNN that the sanctions that Donald Trump was thinking about were not the bone
01:52crunching sanctions that Lindsey Graham has been threatening and which, according to Lindsey Graham,
02:00have the support of 81 members of the Senate, but that they would be token sanctions. And then we got
02:07further reports in the Wall Street Journal that the sanctions would be limited to sectors of the Russian
02:18economy that didn't include the banking system. As I said, the banking sanctions have anyway never made
02:25any kind of sense. And I really don't understand what they mean at all. But anyway, there were reports that
02:31the sanctions would be limited in some form. And then Donald Trump appeared and made further comments.
02:41And essentially, he said that for the moment, at least, he's not considering any sanctions at all.
02:47And he said that the reason he's not considering sanctions is because he fears that if he were to go
02:57forward with sanctions at the present time, it would disincentivise the Russians from proceeding
03:06with the negotiations, the current negotiations taking place between the Russians and the Ukrainians.
03:14And there are now also reports in the media that say that the reason that Donald Trump,
03:21Donald Trump believes that the reason the Russians did not agree to a ceasefire as he hoped that they
03:31would, was because they were deterred from doing so by the threat of sanctions. So that he believes that
03:38if he takes the threat of sanctions off the table, that will presumably make the Russians more amenable,
03:47more willing to make concessions over the course of the ongoing negotiations. I have absolutely no idea
03:56why Trump should think this. I've never seen or heard the Russians link the idea of a ceasefire
04:09to sanctions relief at any point in time. It is the case that Americans do seem to have an exaggerated
04:19expectation of what offers of sanctions relief might induce the Russians to do. I encountered this myself.
04:28I've actually encountered this myself. I remember, oh, it was about two years ago in October.
04:34It was actually in October 2023, as I now remember. I was invited very generously by David Sachs
04:43to participate in a discussion that took place on X spaces. None other than Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy
04:54participated in that discussion. And again, I was struck by the extent to which the Americans
05:03who were involved in that discussion seemed to take it for granted that if the Russians were offered
05:09sanctions relief, they would make concessions. They might even agree to a freeze of the conflict,
05:18even though the Russians have never at any point suggested any such thing. And this is said by,
05:24you know, highly intelligent, extremely very well informed people in the United States.
05:30And I remember being surprised about this. And I tried, as I recall, to push back on this assumption
05:38over the course of that discussion. And I got the impression, by the way, that what I was saying
05:46was simply not getting through. And again, there also seemed to be an assumption on the part of the
05:56the Americans on that, in that discussion group, that the Russians were longing to break free of the
06:06shadow of Beijing. And that for that reason, they would agree to concessions over Ukraine, that they
06:15would agree to a conflict freeze if the sanctions on them were lifted or reduced in some way, because
06:23they wanted to resume economic ties with the United States in order to distance themselves from the Chinese.
06:34And that belief still seems to be very strong, as shown apparently by Donald Trump's latest words and comments
06:45to the media and to other US officials, as they're being reported in the United States.
06:54For the record, and I think this is perhaps an important point to make, especially if Americans
07:04close to the administration are listening to this programme. The internal messaging in Moscow
07:11is completely different. Putin and other Russian officials have been going out of their way over
07:20the last couple of months to reassure members of the Russian business community that if sanctions
07:29are relaxed or lifted in some way, that will not mean that Western businesses that exited Russia
07:39after the sanctions were imposed, will be invited back, so that Russian companies could have taken the place
07:49within the Russian internal market of those Western companies that left, that those Russian companies
07:58will not face the competition from those Western companies that they experienced before February 2022.
08:06And this is what comments like the one that Putin is reported to have just made about suffocating
08:17Western businesses that remain in Russia are all about. As I said, it's to reassure Russian business
08:25that they don't need to fear a return of Western competition on the Russian domestic market.
08:32And also, by the way, and it's worth pointing this out, Putin has also gone out of his way in several
08:43discussions that he's had with Russian business people, including in that speech to the industrialists,
08:53a critically important speech that he gave to the industrialists, only Alistair Crook,
08:58in my opinion, amongst Western commentators, has fully grasped its significance. Anyway, in that speech
09:07that Putin gave to the industrialists on the 18th of March, he went out of his way to say that
09:13Russia should not expect sanctions to be relaxed or lifted, that they will be a permanent thing,
09:22and that they will remain in place, and that far from Russian businessmen needing to worry about the consequences
09:33of sanctions being lifted. The reality, on the contrary, is that they are a permanent reality,
09:40and that Russian business people should organise and plan for the future on that basis.
09:48So, as I said, the domestic messaging in Russia flies completely in the face of what people like Donald Trump
09:59and many Americans seem to believe on the question of sanctions.
10:05But, as I said, this is an idea which, as I said, Americans seem to have, which never dies.
10:16And, well, I've discussed it at length in this programme, I've discussed it at length in previous programmes.
10:24It could, of course, also be the case that the Americans simply don't believe this internal messaging
10:31that the Russians are giving to themselves, though I can't imagine why.
10:36I can't imagine why Putin would want to deceive Russia's own business community on a question of this kind.
10:45I can't, I hardly think that makes any kind of sense, given that we're talking about long-term investment programmes.
10:52And it could also be that Donald Trump perhaps has a better understanding of the Russian position on sanctions
11:04than he implies, though, for the record, I don't think so.
11:11But it could be that Donald Trump assumes that and understands this better than I also assume.
11:21And that he understands that further sanctions would be counterproductive for the United States.
11:30And that is the real reason why he wants to avoid them.
11:34Anyway, that is what Donald Trump is saying.
11:36For the moment, at least, it looks as if we are not going to get more sanctions against Russia.
11:41But Donald Trump then went out of his way to say that this is, you know, only for the next week or two weeks.
11:48Because after that, we will know whether the Russians are really serious about the negotiations.
11:55So Trump, if this is all a political exercise, is buying himself just one or two weeks.
12:05If there isn't progress in the negotiations, no doubt all the pressures to impose those sanctions on Russia will come back again.
12:15Again, I don't think people in the United States fully understand how little space this sanctions debate in the United States is taking in Russia.
12:35How completely unimpressed the Russians are with the American debates on this subject.
12:44Anyway, in the meantime, we have an extraordinarily bewildering story about the progress, if that's the right word, of the negotiations.
12:57So General Kellogg, who is now resurfaced, has told us that the Ukrainians, as the Ukrainians have now confirmed, actually provided their position paper to the Americans.
13:13And that the position paper was provided to the Americans before, apparently, it was provided to the Russians, which is a very, very strange and eccentric thing to do.
13:26I mean, are the Ukrainians negotiating with the Americans or are they negotiating with the Russians?
13:31What exactly is the American role here?
13:35I mean, it is all very much up in the air.
13:39As somebody who's acted as a mediator in negotiations, I would say that this is, again, an, shall we say, unusual approach for a mediator to have.
13:52Mediators do not usually receive proposals made by one party to the other before they're communicated by that party to the other.
14:04Usually, when parties put forward proposals, they send them directly to the other party and copy them to the mediator.
14:16They do not brief the mediator first and get the mediator's comments before they convey the proposals to the other side.
14:26Of course, there is an alternative view, which is that the Americans and the Ukrainians have been working on the Ukrainian proposals together.
14:38In which case, of course, the Americans are not mediators at all.
14:44They are, in effect, guiding the Ukrainian role in the negotiations.
14:50Some of us might mischievously assume that it goes further than that still.
14:57That, in fact, what we are told is the Ukrainian proposal has, in fact, been written and drawn up and drafted by the Americans entirely.
15:11Obviously, and perhaps quite possibly by General Kellogg himself.
15:17There is ample reason to think that that is so, though, of course, I do not know, actually, that that is so.
15:29Anyway, the Russians have apparently been provided by the Ukrainians with the Ukrainian draft proposal.
15:37Let's call it the Ukrainian draft proposal, even as we keep to ourselves the possibility that actually it is the American proposal.
15:46Perhaps General Kellogg's 22-point peace plan, the one that he's still so proud of, the one that Putin has already rejected,
15:58the one which Putin told the Americans and Steve Wyckoff he wasn't prepared to receive,
16:05so that he wasn't interested in Wyckoff coming to Moscow and proposing it to him.
16:17Again, Kellogg appears to have this invincible belief that Putin is at some point going to accept.
16:25American proposals like ceasefires, unconditional ceasefires, and freezes of the conflict, and 22-point peace plans, which Putin has already rejected.
16:38I just say this.
16:40But anyway, even as the Americans, as the Ukrainians, sort of work out their position,
16:45we've had this extraordinary intrigue and drama about the Russian memorandum.
16:53And the Ukrainians have said, you know, that the Russians are obviously dragging their feet
16:58because they haven't provided their memorandum to the Ukrainians.
17:05Well, the Russians have said is that they will provide their memorandum to the Ukrainians,
17:09but they will provide it on the 2nd of June in Istanbul.
17:12And that is the Russian position.
17:15So Medinsky and his negotiating team, the same people who were there at the meeting on the 16th of May,
17:25they're going to go to Istanbul on the 2nd of June.
17:29They will presumably turn up at the Dom al-Bacha Palace,
17:34where they met with the Ukrainians on the 16th of May,
17:37and where they met with the Ukrainians in March 2022.
17:43And they will wait for the Ukrainians to come,
17:46and they will hand over their memorandum to the Ukrainians then.
17:53Now, that actually makes a great deal of sense from a Russian point of view.
18:04First of all, if the Russians simply sent their memorandum to the Ukrainians
18:11before they met with the Ukrainians,
18:16as night follows day,
18:18the contents of the Russian memorandum would be leaked to the media.
18:23In fact, it wouldn't just be leaked to the media.
18:26We would probably have the entire memorandum published with all kinds of Ukrainian and American,
18:34by the way, interpretations, glosses.
18:39And it would be all over the media,
18:41even before the actual meeting between the Russian and Ukrainian negotiating teams even began.
18:49So, for that reason alone,
18:53I think that the Russians would not want to provide the Ukrainians with the Russian memorandum
19:01before the Russians and the Ukrainians met with each other.
19:04And of course, the second reason is that the Russians do not want to provide the Ukrainians
19:11with their memorandum before the meeting in Istanbul,
19:17before the Ukrainians turn up to the next meeting in Istanbul,
19:22because the Russians don't want to allow the Ukrainians an opportunity
19:34to prepare their response to the memorandum.
19:37The Russians want to present it.
19:41They want the Ukrainians to tell them in that meeting what their response is.
19:50They don't want the Ukrainians coming to that meeting,
19:54having agreed a position on the Russian memorandum
19:57with the Americans and the Europeans in advance.
20:01It is a common negotiating tactic to do that.
20:05You don't want to have your adversary fully briefed and fully prepared before the meeting.
20:13You want the Ukrainians caught flat-footed, if you like.
20:18It may be a rather tough way of going about things,
20:23but it's the way negotiations are conducted,
20:26and it's certainly the way the Russians conduct negotiations.
20:29There is a third reason, and this takes us back to the meetings that took place in Istanbul in March 2022.
20:40There was a draft agreement in Istanbul,
20:45one which the two sides both initialed.
20:49It was agreed that the two sides would go away,
20:52and that the Russians would then provide a further set of proposals
20:59on how the April 2022 Istanbul draft agreement would be taken forward.
21:05And about two weeks later, the Russians did send to Ukraine,
21:14presumably by email or whatever other means,
21:18their draft proposals on how to take the April 2022 Istanbul agreement further.
21:29The Russians provided it, and then there was complete silence from the Ukrainian side.
21:37And then the Russians followed up,
21:39and they sent messages to the Ukrainians asking,
21:42have you actually received our proposal?
21:46I remember how it all played out in April 2022 and May 2022.
21:50And there was radio silence from Kiev.
21:55The Ukrainians failed completely to respond.
22:02And the rest, the next thing that the Russians heard from the Ukrainians
22:06was first that Ukraine launched its two offensives in Kharkov and Kherson region
22:15in the late summer, autumn of 2022.
22:20And of course, in October 2022,
22:23Zelensky issued his decree forbidding any negotiations with the Russians at all.
22:29A decree, by the way, which he has not rescinded or reversed.
22:35It is still there, even as the Russians and the Ukrainians
22:40go through the motions of negotiating and engaging in direct negotiations with each other.
22:48So, one can understand that after that event, that experience,
22:52the Russians are going to give their memorandum to the Ukrainians in person,
22:59ask the Ukrainians for their immediate response.
23:04They do not want to be put in the same position that they were put in April and May 2022
23:12when they sent a set of proposals to the Ukrainians
23:19and those proposals disappear into the ether.
23:25This time, the Russians want the Ukrainians to receive the proposals by hand
23:39and they want the Ukrainians to respond to the proposals there and then.
23:46Now, Reuters has told us some of the things that are said to be in this Russian memorandum.
23:57And we're told that this has been provided,
24:01this information has been provided to Reuters by people informed about the matter.
24:09Which people, which Russian officials are providing this information to Reuters?
24:20Pereskov, Putin's spokesman, has just said, quite categorically,
24:25that the Russians are not going to provide any information at all
24:29about what is in their memorandum in advance of the meeting with the Ukrainians in Istanbul.
24:36So, who exactly is providing this information to Reuters?
24:44I ask this question because I am very surprised, to put it mildly,
24:50that anybody in Moscow would be talking to Reuters, a British news agency,
24:56with a history, admittedly long, long, long ago,
25:01of connections with the British intelligence community.
25:05But, of course, that's the history we know about, to say.
25:09I've no idea what's happened since.
25:12But anyway, why would the Russians be leaking information about their own memorandum to Reuters?
25:22Anyway, for what it is worth, the information Reuters is providing us with
25:33is that the Russian demands remain the same as always,
25:39about ceasefires, about the ultimate conclusion of the conflict in Ukraine,
25:48about all of that.
25:51But Reuters is suggesting that it does go,
25:56is suggesting that the Russian proposals do go further,
26:01that they require commitments not just from Ukraine,
26:07written guaranteed commitments not just from Ukraine,
26:11but from the Western powers as well,
26:13that Ukraine will not join NATO,
26:16that it will become a neutral, non-aligned country again,
26:21and apparently that the West will agree
26:26that other countries,
26:30and apparently Moldova and Georgia,
26:33are specifically named as well,
26:36that these countries will not join NATO also.
26:41Now, that's very interesting,
26:43because, well, putting aside the fact that
26:46how does Reuters have this information?
26:50Moldova and Georgia are not parties to the Ukraine conflict.
26:56The negotiations that are supposed to take place in Istanbul
27:00are supposedly negotiations between the Ukrainians and the Russians.
27:05And how is Ukraine going to promise Russia,
27:12even assuming that it wants to,
27:14how is it going to be able to promise Russia
27:17that other countries, third countries,
27:19Moldova and Georgia,
27:21should not join NATO?
27:23This proposal, if it is in that memorandum at all,
27:30cannot be intended for Ukraine,
27:35or should I say proposal,
27:36demand perhaps more properly,
27:39should not be in that memorandum,
27:41cannot be addressed to Ukraine at all.
27:44It is obviously,
27:45if it is indeed being made,
27:48it is obviously being addressed
27:50to the United States.
27:53The United States
27:55can give Russia
27:57guaranteed assurances
27:59that not just Ukraine,
28:00but also Moldova,
28:02Georgia,
28:03perhaps Armenia,
28:04perhaps other countries
28:05will not join NATO.
28:07But Ukraine is not in any kind of position
28:10to give those guarantees to Russia
28:14on America's behalf,
28:16on America's or on NATO's behalf,
28:19or on Moldova's and Georgia's
28:21and other countries' behalf.
28:23So anyway,
28:24it's all very interesting
28:25and very complicated.
28:27But we do have
28:29some hints from the Russians
28:32as to the sort of things
28:33that they will be looking for.
28:35So Karasin,
28:38Grigori Karasin,
28:39the chairman
28:40of the Federation Council
28:41Upper House,
28:42Committee on Foreign Affairs,
28:44the man who met
28:46with the Americans
28:47in Riyadh
28:49to discuss the Black Sea,
28:51revival of the Black Sea initiative,
28:53the grain deal.
28:55He's made statements.
28:57He says,
28:57we want stability,
28:58first and foremost,
29:00enduring strategic stability
29:01for ourselves.
29:03We don't want NATO
29:04to move closer
29:05to our borders
29:06and we want
29:08a neutral Ukraine.
29:09A big game is going on
29:11even around the Istanbul talks.
29:14It's about minor things
29:15if we speak decently
29:16without using more rude language.
29:19However,
29:19we are patient
29:20and we have certain rights
29:21as a country
29:22that seek to ensure
29:24its own strategic stability
29:25and we don't care at all
29:27what tricks will be played
29:28in relation to the Kiev regime.
29:30So that was Karasin
29:33and that does hint
29:35that the Russians
29:36are indeed thinking
29:38about asking
29:39for more guarantees
29:41from the Americans
29:41that there will not be
29:44further expansion
29:45of NATO,
29:47not just to Ukraine,
29:49but to other countries as well.
29:51And another senior Russian official,
29:55Tatyana Dobgelenko,
29:58head of the Russian
29:58Foreign Ministry's Department
30:00for Partnership with Africa.
30:02So Ukraine is obviously
30:04not part of her remit,
30:08but nonetheless,
30:08she is a senior Russian diplomat.
30:10She says,
30:11the Ukrainian side
30:12is aware of our position
30:14that a final
30:15and sustainable settlement
30:17of the conflict
30:18is possible
30:19only through the complete
30:20and irreversible elimination
30:22of its root causes.
30:25We need reliable,
30:27legally binding agreements
30:28and mechanisms
30:29that guarantee
30:31national interests,
30:34including security
30:35and crisis prevention.
30:38And she said that
30:39during a briefing
30:40for African delegations
30:42at the 13th
30:43International Meeting
30:44of High Representatives
30:45in charge of security issues.
30:50Presumably that means
30:51people from Africa,
30:55national security advisors
30:57and people like that
30:59from various African states.
31:01So we see that the Russians
31:02are explaining their position
31:04to countries
31:05in the global south as well.
31:07And that is again hinting
31:09at the fact that the Russians
31:11indeed do expect
31:13that there will be restrictions
31:18on further NATO expansion
31:20and that it will encompass
31:22other countries
31:23beyond Ukraine as well.
31:27I'm going to make
31:28my own guess here
31:30that the Russians
31:32have indeed prepared
31:33a memorandum
31:34which they're going
31:35to present to the Ukrainians
31:37in Istanbul
31:38that this memorandum
31:41will contain
31:42all the provisions
31:43that we are already
31:45familiar with.
31:46Transfer of the four territories
31:48to Russia,
31:49demands that Ukraine
31:51agreed to change
31:52its constitution again
31:53to become a neutral country,
31:55guarantees that Ukraine
31:57will never join NATO,
31:59restrictions on the sides
32:00of the Ukrainian armed forces,
32:03protections for Russian speakers
32:05in Ukraine,
32:07the elimination of groups
32:11that subscribe
32:12to ultra-nationalist ideologies
32:17in Ukraine.
32:19This is a euphemism,
32:20as I'm sure you all know,
32:22for the actual ideologies
32:25that these groups have,
32:27things of that kind.
32:30I suspect that,
32:31as I said,
32:31we're going to see
32:32all of that usual set
32:34of demands
32:35in this memorandum
32:37that the Russians
32:37are going to present
32:39to the Ukrainians
32:40in Istanbul.
32:41But I suspect
32:42that the Russians
32:43have also been communicating
32:44further ideas
32:47about the conflict
32:50and about the
32:51long-term settlement
32:53of the crisis
32:53in Europe
32:54directly
32:55to the Americans
32:56themselves.
32:59And it is
32:59American officials
33:01that have been
33:03briefing Reuters
33:04on Russian thinking.
33:08And Lavrov,
33:09for example,
33:11has had another
33:12conversation
33:13with Rubio.
33:16The Russian
33:17and American readouts
33:18are extremely
33:20uninformative
33:20informative
33:21about what
33:22this conversation
33:23was all about.
33:25By the way,
33:26Lavrov has also
33:27had conversations
33:28with Fidan,
33:29the Turkish
33:30foreign minister.
33:31I'll come to those
33:31shortly.
33:33But I suspect
33:34that the Russians
33:35have been making
33:36very clear
33:36to the Americans
33:38directly
33:40that in order
33:42for there to be
33:43a resolution
33:45of the conflict
33:46in Ukraine.
33:49Russia
33:50expects
33:51and demands
33:53that there
33:54should be
33:55commitments
33:57from the United
33:58States
33:59ending
34:01further
34:02NATO
34:03expansion.
34:05In other words,
34:06the Russians
34:06are reviving
34:09the demands
34:10that they made
34:11when they
34:12presented
34:12those two
34:13draft treaties
34:14to the United
34:15States
34:16and to NATO
34:17in December
34:182021.
34:20The two
34:20draft treaties
34:21that the
34:22Western powers
34:23at that time
34:24basically disregarded.
34:27So I think
34:28this is what
34:28we're seeing.
34:30Now,
34:30the Russians
34:31have made
34:33fairly clear
34:35over the last
34:36couple of hours,
34:38or at least
34:38they've reinforced
34:39comments
34:41that, of course,
34:42Medvedev made
34:43at the
34:44legal forum
34:45in St.
34:46Petersburg,
34:47which I
34:47attended,
34:48that if
34:49the Russian
34:50proposals
34:51are not
34:52accepted,
34:53then
34:54Russia
34:55will
34:55focus
34:56on winning
34:57the war.
34:59They're not
34:59going to be
35:00sidetracked
35:01by threats
35:02of sanctions
35:03or anything
35:04like that.
35:06They will
35:06finish the
35:07war
35:07if the
35:09Americans
35:09and the
35:10Ukrainians
35:11don't
35:12negotiate
35:13seriously
35:14with them,
35:15don't take
35:15seriously
35:16Russian demands,
35:18then the
35:19war will be
35:20fought
35:21by the
35:22Russians
35:22using,
35:24again,
35:25Russian
35:25language
35:26until a
35:28victorious
35:28conclusion
35:29is reached.
35:31So that's,
35:33I think,
35:33where we are
35:34with the
35:35negotiations.
35:35I'm going
35:35to make
35:36one last
35:37final point
35:38about these
35:39negotiations,
35:40which is that
35:41this meeting
35:41in Istanbul
35:42is now
35:43taking place
35:43in the
35:44most
35:44extraordinary
35:46way,
35:47because we're
35:48seeing,
35:48in effect,
35:49a repetition
35:50of what
35:51happened
35:51on the
35:5311th of
35:53May,
35:54when Putin
35:55suddenly announced
35:56that he was
35:57sending a
35:59team of
36:00negotiators to
36:01Istanbul
36:01on the
36:0215th of
36:03May,
36:03and basically
36:04challenged
36:05the
36:06Ukrainians to
36:07send a
36:07negotiating team
36:08to meet
36:09them.
36:10And as we
36:10remember,
36:12Zelensky
36:13twisted and
36:15turned,
36:17but after
36:18the third
36:20degree type
36:21of pressure
36:22was put on
36:23him,
36:23first by the
36:24Americans,
36:25and then by
36:25Erdogan,
36:26over the
36:27course of a
36:27three-hour
36:28meeting he
36:29had with
36:30Zelensky
36:31in Ankara,
36:32Zelensky
36:33did eventually
36:34send a
36:35negotiating
36:36team to
36:36Istanbul,
36:37even though
36:38it actually
36:39met with
36:40the Russians,
36:40not on the
36:4115th of
36:42May,
36:42but on
36:42the 16th
36:43of May.
36:44Anyway,
36:45something very
36:47similar has
36:47taken place
36:48this time,
36:49because
36:49firstly,
36:50we had
36:51suggestions
36:51that the
36:52next meeting
36:52shouldn't
36:53really be in
36:53Istanbul
36:54at all,
36:55the Ukrainians
36:55don't like
36:56meeting the
36:57Russians in
36:58Istanbul,
36:58it makes
37:00it look
37:01too much
37:02like this
37:02is indeed
37:03a continuation
37:04of the
37:06Istanbul
37:07talks that
37:08took place
37:09in March
37:102022.
37:12The Ukrainians
37:12are insisting
37:13that this
37:14whole negotiating
37:15process that
37:16is now taking
37:17place is
37:17completely
37:18starting all
37:20over again
37:21from the
37:22beginning.
37:23They don't
37:23like any
37:24suggestion that
37:25this is,
37:26that these
37:27negotiations
37:28are moving
37:30forward from
37:31what was
37:32agreed back
37:33in Istanbul
37:34in April
37:352022.
37:37So for that
37:37reason,
37:37they don't
37:38like having
37:38the negotiations
37:39in Istanbul,
37:41and it was
37:41suggested that
37:42the negotiations
37:43take place
37:43in the
37:44Vatican,
37:45and the
37:46Russians made
37:47it absolutely
37:47clear that
37:48they didn't
37:48like the
37:50idea of
37:51the Vatican
37:51as a
37:52venue.
37:55Lavrov said
37:56it would be
37:56a very
37:56strange thing
37:57for meetings
37:59between two
38:00orthodox
38:00countries to
38:02take place
38:02in the
38:03Vatican,
38:04of all
38:04places.
38:05So the
38:05Russians
38:06anyway said
38:06that they
38:07did not
38:07want the
38:08negotiations
38:09to take
38:09place in
38:10the Vatican.
38:12And then
38:14General Kellogg
38:14suggested
38:15Geneva,
38:16which of
38:17course is
38:18anathema for
38:18the Russians.
38:19As far as
38:20the Russians
38:21are concerned,
38:23Geneva is
38:24almost the
38:24last place
38:25they want to
38:25meet the
38:26Ukrainians,
38:27because as
38:29far as
38:29they're
38:29concerned,
38:31Switzerland,
38:32for long a
38:33neutral country
38:34and accepted
38:36as such
38:37by the
38:38Russians,
38:39is a
38:39neutral country
38:40no longer.
38:41It is fully
38:42aligned with
38:43the West.
38:45It has imposed
38:46sanctions against
38:48Russia.
38:49It has
38:49authorised
38:49transfers of
38:51Swiss
38:52military
38:53technology
38:54to
38:54Ukraine
38:57to fight
38:58Russia.
38:58As far as
38:59the Russians
38:59are concerned,
39:01Switzerland has
39:02forfeited its
39:03claim to be a
39:04neutral country.
39:05The Russians
39:06rejected that
39:07proposal of
39:07Geneva
39:08outright.
39:10Now,
39:10the Russians
39:11didn't
39:12actually
39:13agree with
39:15the Ukrainians
39:16that the
39:17next meeting,
39:18the meeting on
39:19the 2nd of
39:19June,
39:20the meeting
39:20on Monday,
39:21should take
39:22place in
39:23Istanbul.
39:24They simply
39:25announced,
39:26exactly as
39:27Putin did on
39:28the 11th of
39:28May,
39:29that the
39:29Russian delegation
39:30will be
39:31turning up in
39:31Istanbul,
39:33waiting for
39:33the Ukrainians
39:34at the
39:35Domolbacha
39:36Palace.
39:37The Russians
39:38have their
39:39memorandum
39:39there ready,
39:41and when the
39:41Ukrainians come,
39:43that is where
39:43they will hand
39:44it over to
39:45the Ukrainians.
39:47Peskov,
39:48as of the
39:49time of
39:49making of
39:50this programme,
39:51is saying
39:51that so
39:52far the
39:53Russians have
39:54not received
39:55confirmation from
39:57the Ukrainians
39:58that they will
39:59indeed be in
40:00Istanbul on
40:01the 2nd of
40:01June.
40:02I have no
40:03doubt that the
40:04Ukrainians will
40:05indeed be in
40:06Istanbul on
40:07the 2nd of
40:08June.
40:10The Russians,
40:11again,
40:12have basically
40:13been able to
40:14force through
40:15their insistence
40:19that Istanbul
40:21continues to
40:22be the
40:23venue for
40:24the talks.
40:26The Ukrainians
40:26might not like
40:27it, but
40:28they've been
40:28forced to
40:29lump it.
40:30So there it
40:31is.
40:31That's the
40:32state of the
40:33negotiations at
40:34the moment.
40:35Incredibly
40:35confusing,
40:37very, very
40:37intricate, but
40:39one gets the
40:40sense that the
40:40Russians are
40:43sticking to all
40:43their positions
40:44about Ukraine,
40:45but that
40:46they're now
40:47seeking to
40:49expand the
40:50negotiations,
40:52to revisit
40:53the whole
40:53question of
40:55the greater,
40:56of the wider
40:57security
40:57architecture in
41:00Europe, and
41:01that they're in
41:02effect telling
41:05the Americans,
41:06look, this
41:08is the real
41:09issue in
41:11Ukraine.
41:12We go back
41:13to what
41:13Karazin said.
41:14Ukraine is
41:16really the
41:16details.
41:18We need to
41:19talk about the
41:20security
41:20architecture in
41:22Europe, and
41:23this is a
41:25conversation that
41:26we, that is to
41:28say the
41:28Americans and
41:29the Russians,
41:30must have
41:31directly with
41:33each other.
41:35And, well,
41:36this might take
41:37us back to
41:38another very
41:39interesting article
41:40that has
41:40appeared in the
41:41New York
41:42Times, it
41:42came out a
41:43few days
41:43ago, and
41:44it's one of
41:45those interesting
41:46articles which
41:48appears every so
41:49often in the
41:50media, which
41:52several weeks
41:54after we
41:55discussed the
41:56whole topic
41:57on the
41:59Duran, Alex
42:00Christopheru and
42:01I, you can go
42:01back and find
42:02the programmes
42:03where we
42:04discussed it,
42:04I think it was
42:05in early
42:05February.
42:06anyway, over
42:08all that
42:09time, suddenly
42:10the New York
42:10Times is
42:11saying the
42:12same things
42:12as we were
42:13saying on
42:13the Duran,
42:14and is using
42:15the identical
42:16language, and
42:17in that, those
42:19videos we did,
42:20I think it was
42:21back in February,
42:21we said that
42:22Donald Trump's
42:24thinking seemed
42:25to be to
42:27move towards
42:28a system
42:31of great
42:32powers with
42:34spheres of
42:34influence,
42:35clearly defined
42:36spheres of
42:37influence, he
42:38seemed to
42:38recognise that
42:40the three
42:41great powers
42:42would be the
42:42United States,
42:43Russia and
42:44China, and
42:46that we
42:47would be
42:47seeing a
42:47negotiation at
42:49some point
42:50between the
42:50United States
42:51and the
42:52Russians about
42:54the Russian
42:54sphere of
42:55influence.
42:56The American
42:56sphere of
42:57influence would
42:58be the
42:58fairly clear,
43:00Greenland,
43:01Canada,
43:02Central
43:03America,
43:04Mexico,
43:06the Russian
43:07sphere of
43:08influence is
43:09still up to
43:10some extent
43:11for negotiation.
43:13Well, that
43:15was the New
43:15York Times
43:16article.
43:18One wonders
43:20why this
43:21New York
43:22Times article
43:24has appeared
43:26now.
43:27Could it
43:28be, could
43:29it just be
43:30that the
43:31Americans
43:31having received
43:33the Russian
43:34proposals about
43:36revisiting the
43:37topic of the
43:39security
43:39architecture in
43:41Europe, could
43:43it be that
43:45Trump and
43:47people like him,
43:48Rubio maybe,
43:48are taking this
43:50all very
43:51seriously?
43:51and it is
43:53this that has
43:54led to
43:55briefings of
43:56the New
43:57York Times
43:57about the
43:58fact that
43:59eventually the
44:01United States
44:01is going to
44:02negotiate the
44:04terms of
44:05fears of
44:06influence with
44:07Russia.
44:08Who knows?
44:09Anyway, it's
44:10always interesting
44:12and, dare I say,
44:13amusing to
44:15read in the
44:17media things
44:18that we
44:19discussed
44:20on the
44:21Duran
44:22several weeks
44:23before.
44:24Of course,
44:26the media
44:26will never
44:27tell you,
44:27the mainstream
44:28media will
44:29never tell
44:29you that
44:30you could
44:31have learnt
44:32about it
44:33from the
44:33Duran
44:33first.
44:35And you'll
44:37forgive me if
44:37I bring it
44:39up in that
44:39way, but as
44:40I said many
44:41times, life
44:43has taught me
44:44that if you
44:45don't remind
44:46people of
44:47these things,
44:48if you
44:48don't blow
44:50your own
44:51trumpet, no
44:52one else is
44:52going to do
44:53it for you.
44:54Anyway, let's
44:55move on,
44:56because to
44:57repeat again,
44:59it is the
44:59war, what is
45:01actually going
45:02on in the
45:02war that is
45:03deciding this
45:04conflict.
45:05And I'm
45:06going to be
45:07relatively brief
45:08because, as I
45:09said, I have
45:09time constraints
45:13to work with.
45:14But we've
45:16had another
45:17meeting this
45:17time between
45:18Friedrich
45:18Merz and
45:20Zelensky, in
45:22which Merz has
45:24apparently committed
45:255 billion euros
45:27to help Ukraine
45:28build long-range
45:30cruise missiles
45:32that could
45:34reach Russia.
45:36Now, this is
45:38a nonsensical
45:39story.
45:40There is no
45:41conceivable way
45:42that Ukraine,
45:42which is being
45:44hammered by
45:45Russia every
45:46day, can set
45:47up production
45:48plants in
45:49Ukraine to
45:51build, to
45:53build cruise
45:54missiles.
45:55What's happening,
45:58and this is, I'm
45:59confident, is the
46:00truth, what is
46:01happening is that
46:03Friedrich Merz is
46:04giving Zelensky
46:05another 5 billion
46:06euros.
46:07If there was more
46:09money, we know
46:11what's going to
46:12happen to all of
46:12that money.
46:14And as for the
46:15long-range cruise
46:16missiles, they're
46:18not going to be
46:19built in Ukraine
46:21because they are
46:22already in
46:23Ukraine.
46:24We're talking
46:25about the
46:25Taurus missiles.
46:27Of course, if
46:28you go to the
46:29German media and
46:30you go to the
46:31media in the
46:32West, you will
46:33find all kinds of
46:34denials that the
46:35Taurus missiles have
46:36been supplied to
46:38Ukraine.
46:38But of course, the
46:40reality is, I'm
46:40confident of this,
46:42that they have
46:43been.
46:44And in fact, a
46:46Ukrainian telegram
46:47channel, Legitimi,
46:49has said as much.
46:51And they're saying
46:52that the Taurus
46:53missiles are already
46:55in Ukraine and
46:56that the British
46:56and the French
46:57are already busy
46:59helping the
47:00Ukrainians to
47:01develop and use
47:01these Taurus
47:02missiles.
47:03So the Taurus
47:04missiles are
47:05already in
47:06Ukraine and they
47:07will be used, no
47:08doubt, before
47:09long and they
47:11will be used
47:12specifically to
47:14strike at
47:15Moscow.
47:16Moscow is just
47:17within the
47:19range of the
47:21Taurus missiles.
47:23Now, this
47:25is a product
47:27of another
47:31massive defeat
47:33that the
47:34Ukrainians and
47:36the collective
47:36West have
47:38suffered over
47:40the course of
47:40this conflict.
47:41And I'm
47:42referring now to
47:43the Ukrainian
47:44drone offensive.
47:45I have already
47:46discussed this in
47:47various programs.
47:48I have already
47:49discussed how this
47:50massive drone
47:51offensive that the
47:51Ukrainians have
47:53launched over the
47:53last couple of
47:54weeks, was
47:55obviously carefully
47:57prepared in
47:57advance, probably
47:59a series of
47:59decisions made
48:01way back in the
48:02spring and early
48:03summer of last
48:04year.
48:05You do not
48:06conduct a drone
48:07offensive on this
48:08scale.
48:09Without months of
48:11preparation, the
48:12industrial plant
48:13has to be
48:14organised, the
48:15supplies, the
48:17supply chains
48:18have to be built
48:18up, the
48:19technology has to
48:20be provided, the
48:22intelligence and
48:23targeting data has
48:25to be provided as
48:26well and there
48:26have to be
48:27headquarters and
48:30facilities provided
48:33in order to
48:34exchange this
48:34information.
48:36And I am going
48:37to suggest that
48:37this has been, as
48:38I said, months
48:39in preparation.
48:42And I would not
48:44be surprised if
48:46the preparations
48:48for this drone
48:49offensive, which
48:50has been
48:50specifically
48:51targeting
48:53Moscow, has
48:56absorbed as
48:58much in, shall
49:00we say, at the
49:01very least,
49:02intellectual
49:03resources,
49:04thinking,
49:05planning,
49:06preparation and
49:07that kind, not
49:08just by
49:10Ukraine, but
49:11by Ukraine's
49:12Western allies,
49:13Britain, France,
49:15Germany, the
49:16United States,
49:17NATO.
49:17as Ukraine's
49:20summer 2023
49:22offensive has
49:23absorbed.
49:24In fact, I'm
49:25going to make a
49:25prediction that
49:26in a year or
49:29so's time, we're
49:31going to get the
49:31next article in
49:33the New York
49:33Times, which is
49:34going to provide
49:35us with all the
49:36details about the
49:37headquarters that
49:38were set up, the
49:39generals and
49:40officers who were
49:41conducting this
49:42offensive, Britain,
49:44France, Germany,
49:45Britain, the United
49:47States and all of
49:47the others, how
49:49this whole
49:50elaborate offensive
49:51was prepared.
49:53And I'm also
49:55going to suggest
49:56that when in
49:57March, briefly,
50:00Donald Trump
50:01stopped
50:02intelligence
50:03sharing with
50:05Ukraine, this
50:07was in effect a
50:09threat to
50:09Ukraine to
50:11stop this
50:13drone offensive
50:14offensive against
50:14Russia in its
50:16tracks, and I'm
50:17also going to
50:18suggest that the
50:19reason that, one
50:20of the reasons
50:21why Trump
50:22relented and
50:24reinstated
50:25intelligence
50:26cooperation with
50:28Ukraine, which is
50:28intelligence, as I
50:30said, intended to
50:31facilitate this drone
50:34offensive, is because
50:36all the usual people
50:37told him that it was
50:38this drone
50:40offensive that
50:42was going to
50:43provide Trump,
50:45the United
50:46States, and the
50:48collective West
50:49to agree
50:51to the
50:53leverage to get
50:54the Russians to
50:55agree to the
50:56ceasefire, to the
50:58freezing of the
50:59conflict that
51:00General
51:01Kellogg has been
51:03talking about.
51:04Now, again, all of
51:05this is a little
51:06speculative, but
51:07it's speculation
51:08based on piles
51:11of information
51:13and on
51:14experience.
51:16We have
51:16repeatedly
51:18learnt over
51:19the course of
51:21these, over
51:23this conflict,
51:25that whenever
51:25something like a
51:26drone offensive that
51:27we're seeing being
51:28conducted by
51:29Ukraine takes
51:30place, that there
51:31are Western
51:32fingerprints all over
51:33it, and that in
51:34fact, there are
51:35decisions, there
51:36were decisions
51:37made in
51:37Washington, London,
51:38Paris, Brussels,
51:40Berlin, which
51:42basically looked
51:44at this and
51:45agreed this, and
51:47as I said, probably
51:48the decisions were
51:49made in
51:49September, sorry,
51:51in the spring and
51:53summer of last
51:54year.
51:55And of course, the
51:56problem is that
51:57this massive drone
51:59offensive has
52:00failed.
52:01It has been a
52:02disastrous and
52:04complete failure.
52:06All of this
52:06industrial
52:07operation, all of
52:09these facilities, all
52:10the intellectual
52:11planning and
52:12thinking behind
52:13this, all the
52:14satellite data, has
52:16produced nothing.
52:17The Russian air
52:18defences have
52:19proved more
52:20than capable of
52:22repelling it.
52:24None of the
52:24drones, as far as
52:26I can tell, that
52:27are getting
52:28through are doing
52:29any significant
52:30damage, and
52:31only a tiny
52:33proportion of
52:34the drones that
52:35are launched are
52:36getting through.
52:37The Russian air
52:39defences have
52:42been carefully
52:43prepared in
52:44advance of this
52:45drone offensive, and
52:47I'm going to
52:47suggest that Russian
52:48intelligence has
52:49got wind of it,
52:51and just as they
52:52prepared the
52:54Surovikian line, the
52:56trenches, the
52:57dragon's teeth, the
52:58minefields, in
53:00advance of the
53:01summer 2023
53:03offensive, and
53:05defeated the
53:07summer 2023
53:08offensive that
53:09Ukraine launched
53:10in that way.
53:12So they have
53:14prepared their air
53:15defences in a
53:16similar way to
53:18repel this drone
53:19offensive that
53:20Ukraine has
53:21been launching
53:22now.
53:23And, as I
53:24said in previous
53:25programmes, you
53:26can see the
53:26anger and
53:27frustration on
53:28every side.
53:30You get this
53:31with maths, you
53:33get this with the
53:34decision to now
53:35supply Taurus
53:37missiles, which
53:38will be as
53:38ineffective, by
53:39the way, as the
53:40drones, though it
53:42would amount to
53:43a serious
53:43escalation.
53:45I'm going to
53:45suggest that some
53:46of the recent
53:47angry comments by
53:48Donald Trump
53:49is Donald Trump
53:51boiling over as
53:54he realises
53:55that the
53:56leverage which
53:59he was promised
54:01the drone
54:02offensive would
54:03give him has
54:04failed to
54:05materialise.
54:06So, instead,
54:08they're now
54:09having to talk
54:09about launching
54:10missiles against
54:11Moscow, the
54:13attempt to
54:14attack Moscow,
54:15covertly through
54:17drones to
54:17distance the
54:18west from the
54:20attack on
54:21Moscow has
54:21failed, and
54:23now they're
54:23looking at
54:23Taurus missiles
54:24instead.
54:25It is reckless
54:27beyond dreams.
54:29I cannot imagine
54:30anything like that
54:31happening at any
54:32point during the
54:32Cold War, a
54:34situation where
54:36the United States,
54:37Germany, the
54:38Western powers were
54:40actually planning on
54:42launching missiles
54:43missiles against
54:44Moscow, the
54:46Soviet capital, the
54:47capital of the
54:48country with the
54:49world's largest
54:50nuclear arsenal.
54:52It gives you a
54:53sense of the
54:54desperation, the
54:55level of
54:56desperation and
54:57recklessness that
54:59we now see.
55:00Now, the
55:01Russians are
55:01making all kinds
55:02of threats about
55:04this.
55:05They're talking
55:06about the fact
55:06that this time
55:07they might be
55:08serious about
55:09launching strikes
55:10against Germany
55:11itself, the
55:13Oreshniks, no
55:15doubt they're
55:16being prepared
55:18for use.
55:21I hope that
55:23this situation
55:24is indeed
55:24brought under
55:25control, but
55:27that the
55:28Taurus missiles
55:29will be used
55:31of that.
55:32I have
55:32absolutely no
55:34doubt that
55:35there will be
55:36attempts to
55:37launch them
55:37at targets
55:39in Moscow
55:39itself.
55:40about that,
55:42I have no
55:43doubt either.
55:44I think that
55:45the Russian
55:46defences are
55:48being prepared,
55:49probably have
55:49already been
55:50prepared, well
55:51in advance to
55:53deal with these
55:53missiles.
55:55And when, of
55:56course, this
55:57offensive fails,
55:58well, then we
56:00shall see.
56:01Well, this is
56:02where I end
56:03today's programme.
56:04There'll be more
56:04from me soon.
56:05Let me remind
56:06you again, you
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56:25That's me for
56:26today, more from
56:27me soon.
56:27Have a very good
56:29day.