What led to the deadly flooding in central Texas?

AccuWeather

AccuWeather's Jonathan Porter discusses what led up to the deadly flooding in Texas and what is yet to come.

Transcript

00:00We continue to follow really two big weather stories this weekend.

00:03We have Tropical Storm Chantal, but we also have the Texas flooding.

00:07And Chantal continues to produce some severe weather with the form of winds,

00:11rough seas, as well as a current tornado warning, which we'll get to in a moment.

00:15We want to begin with the deadly flooding in Texas, though.

00:18Major search and rescue efforts are underway along the Guadalupe River

00:21as dozens remain missing after Friday's catastrophic flooding.

00:25Now, sadly, the death toll continues to grow with at least 50 deaths now being reported

00:29this does include 14 children.

00:31The Guadalupe River rose 30 feet in just a matter of hours, engulfing homes, camps, and roads.

00:37So for a closer look at what happened, we're joined now by AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist John Porter.

00:42And John, first, I want to talk about the warnings that were issued and when they were issued.

00:48Well, good morning.

00:49First of all, I just want to say this is a heartbreaking tragedy,

00:53and our thoughts are with all of the people and families that have been affected by this tremendous tragedy.

00:59And right now, the focus is obviously on saving as many lives as possible.

01:04And for people in the hardest-hit areas to be aware of the risk for additional flooding,

01:08there'll be more heavy rain there today.

01:10But backing up to what led up to this event,

01:13there were flash flood warnings issued for these areas with ample notice

01:19so that life safety measures could be undertaken.

01:23AccuWeather issued the first flash flood warnings in that area around 1244 Central Time.

01:31The National Weather Service then issued a flash flood warning in that area at 114 Central Time.

01:38And, of course, the peak of the flooding looks like it occurred between 4 and 430 Central Time,

01:43for example, in the Hunt area near some of those camps.

01:46So there had been several hours of advance notice.

01:49The warnings were there in order for people to know that there was an imminent risk to safety in those areas.

01:55Whenever flash flood warnings are issued, regardless of the amount of rainfall that has fallen or what's forecast,

02:00that's the time to take action.

02:02And, John, like you mentioned, of course, right now the focus is saving lives, those search and rescue operations.

02:07But in the days to weeks to come, I think a lot of people are going to have questions for officials,

02:11for those who own and run the camp.

02:15With your expert insight, I mean, what do you think some of those questions will and should be?

02:19Well, that's a great point.

02:21A full investigation is going to be required.

02:23But there are a couple of things that are very concerning that need to be looked into,

02:27which is given those warnings that were in place, as I mentioned,

02:30hours before the most serious flash flooding occurred in those areas,

02:34what was the action plan that each of the camps or RV parks or other locations

02:41where large numbers of people assembled there along the Guadalupe River

02:45and in other areas there in Kerr County,

02:47what were the action plans that those facilities had in terms of their weather risk mitigation plan

02:52for receiving the best flash flood warnings and then activating plans to bring people to safe shelter?

02:59And, of course, there has to be somebody who's in charge of constantly monitoring for severe weather,

03:0424 by 7, just like they would physical security, multiple ways of getting warnings here at AccuWeather.

03:10Of course, we work with half the Fortune 500s and thousands of other businesses

03:13to help keep people safer and best protected.

03:16And it's very important to have multiple redundancies in order to be able to get those warnings.

03:21We send our warnings to our customers in a variety of different ways,

03:24SMS text, specialized mobile application,

03:27and we even have, with many of our customers, backups so that we'll call customers

03:31in case we don't have a confirmation that they've received a warning.

03:34So there are many questions that need to be asked in terms of what was the action plans

03:39that were in place in terms of dealing with flash flooding

03:42and then what steps were taken when those warnings with ample time were received

03:46in order to mitigate the risk for injuries and fatalities.

03:50And those are the questions that are going to need to be asked in the coming weeks.

03:53Now, let's give this a little bit more context.

03:56I want to show our viewers a map of where we saw the heaviest rainfall.

04:00It's the area in red there.

04:02And, John, this was several inches of rain falling very quickly.

04:07It was.

04:07And this is also important to point out.

04:09It kind of goes back to my earlier comments about the context of flooding

04:13in this part of the state of Texas.

04:15This is perhaps the most flash flood vulnerable part of the country

04:20because of the fact that you have complex terrain, lots of hills and valleys

04:24that that water can pour into, and oftentimes access to gulf moisture

04:29or moisture from the eastern Pacific.

04:31Slow-moving storms, that's what happened in this particular case.

04:34And the Guadalupe River went from probably just a typical lazy river,

04:38a little bit of slow motion, to a wall of water with height rises of 30 feet

04:45of fast-moving water in less than an hour.

04:48And there's nothing worse than fast-moving water.

04:51It will destroy everything in its path.

04:54And that's what led to this tragic outcome in terms of just water

04:59that came way too fast down that river, which has happened many times before

05:05across the hill country of south-central Texas, including the Wimberley area flash flood

05:12that happened back in 2015 where there was another wall of water,

05:15again another situation where water rose 30 feet in the matter of an hour,

05:19and along the Guadalupe River in 1987, another catastrophic flash flood.

05:24So this area of Texas is known for these types of dangerous flash floods,

05:28which is even more reason that all flash flood warnings need to be taken seriously,

05:34and you have to assume that a very serious situation,

05:37a life-threatening situation is going to evolve.

05:39Well, that's why immediate flash flood warnings are issued to indicate that immediate risk to life and property.

05:46Yeah, I mean, there were flash flood emergencies issued as well, an even higher level of alert.

05:50But I'm sure a lot of people are sitting here thinking, how did this happen?

05:54And we do have a graphic that kind of shows the weather pattern

05:56that really is a big reason why we had this situation.

05:59Well, it's the classic setup across this part of the country with slow-moving thunderstorms

06:05that produced two to four inches of rainfall per hour.

06:09They were parked over the same areas,

06:12access to near-record levels of atmospheric moisture flowing in from the south.

06:17That's a recipe for trouble,

06:19and that's a recipe for this very serious flash flooding,

06:22and that's what's occurred here.

06:24And of course, I want to give another reminder that you said it.

06:27Take all flash flood warnings seriously,

06:30and just assume that it is a life-threatening situation.

06:33Yeah, that's extremely important.

06:35That's why the warnings are issued,

06:37in order to be able to provide that notification

06:39and that advance notice that that's the time to act,

06:43to seek higher ground.

06:44And especially if you're in an area along a river or a creek or a stream,

06:51those are the types of situations where water can rapidly rise

06:55and a life-threatening emergency can quickly happen.

06:58It was very scary and concerning to hear some campers from camps along in that area

07:03indicating that they were awoken not by somebody telling them

07:07that there was a warning and they needed to evacuate,

07:09but rather they were awoken by water rising up to the second level of cabins.

07:15The question is, why did that happen with advance warnings,

07:20advance flash flood warnings indicating that immediate risk to life and safety?

07:23And that's the question that's going to have to be answered here in the coming weeks.

07:28AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist John Porter, thanks so much for joining us.

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