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What led to the deadly flooding in central Texas?
AccuWeather
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yesterday
AccuWeather's Jonathan Porter discusses what led up to the deadly flooding in Texas and what is yet to come.
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00:00
We continue to follow really two big weather stories this weekend.
00:03
We have Tropical Storm Chantal, but we also have the Texas flooding.
00:07
And Chantal continues to produce some severe weather with the form of winds,
00:11
rough seas, as well as a current tornado warning, which we'll get to in a moment.
00:15
We want to begin with the deadly flooding in Texas, though.
00:18
Major search and rescue efforts are underway along the Guadalupe River
00:21
as dozens remain missing after Friday's catastrophic flooding.
00:25
Now, sadly, the death toll continues to grow with at least 50 deaths now being reported
00:29
this does include 14 children.
00:31
The Guadalupe River rose 30 feet in just a matter of hours, engulfing homes, camps, and roads.
00:37
So for a closer look at what happened, we're joined now by AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist John Porter.
00:42
And John, first, I want to talk about the warnings that were issued and when they were issued.
00:48
Well, good morning.
00:49
First of all, I just want to say this is a heartbreaking tragedy,
00:53
and our thoughts are with all of the people and families that have been affected by this tremendous tragedy.
00:59
And right now, the focus is obviously on saving as many lives as possible.
01:04
And for people in the hardest-hit areas to be aware of the risk for additional flooding,
01:08
there'll be more heavy rain there today.
01:10
But backing up to what led up to this event,
01:13
there were flash flood warnings issued for these areas with ample notice
01:19
so that life safety measures could be undertaken.
01:23
AccuWeather issued the first flash flood warnings in that area around 1244 Central Time.
01:31
The National Weather Service then issued a flash flood warning in that area at 114 Central Time.
01:38
And, of course, the peak of the flooding looks like it occurred between 4 and 430 Central Time,
01:43
for example, in the Hunt area near some of those camps.
01:46
So there had been several hours of advance notice.
01:49
The warnings were there in order for people to know that there was an imminent risk to safety in those areas.
01:55
Whenever flash flood warnings are issued, regardless of the amount of rainfall that has fallen or what's forecast,
02:00
that's the time to take action.
02:02
And, John, like you mentioned, of course, right now the focus is saving lives, those search and rescue operations.
02:07
But in the days to weeks to come, I think a lot of people are going to have questions for officials,
02:11
for those who own and run the camp.
02:15
With your expert insight, I mean, what do you think some of those questions will and should be?
02:19
Well, that's a great point.
02:21
A full investigation is going to be required.
02:23
But there are a couple of things that are very concerning that need to be looked into,
02:27
which is given those warnings that were in place, as I mentioned,
02:30
hours before the most serious flash flooding occurred in those areas,
02:34
what was the action plan that each of the camps or RV parks or other locations
02:41
where large numbers of people assembled there along the Guadalupe River
02:45
and in other areas there in Kerr County,
02:47
what were the action plans that those facilities had in terms of their weather risk mitigation plan
02:52
for receiving the best flash flood warnings and then activating plans to bring people to safe shelter?
02:59
And, of course, there has to be somebody who's in charge of constantly monitoring for severe weather,
03:04
24 by 7, just like they would physical security, multiple ways of getting warnings here at AccuWeather.
03:10
Of course, we work with half the Fortune 500s and thousands of other businesses
03:13
to help keep people safer and best protected.
03:16
And it's very important to have multiple redundancies in order to be able to get those warnings.
03:21
We send our warnings to our customers in a variety of different ways,
03:24
SMS text, specialized mobile application,
03:27
and we even have, with many of our customers, backups so that we'll call customers
03:31
in case we don't have a confirmation that they've received a warning.
03:34
So there are many questions that need to be asked in terms of what was the action plans
03:39
that were in place in terms of dealing with flash flooding
03:42
and then what steps were taken when those warnings with ample time were received
03:46
in order to mitigate the risk for injuries and fatalities.
03:50
And those are the questions that are going to need to be asked in the coming weeks.
03:53
Now, let's give this a little bit more context.
03:56
I want to show our viewers a map of where we saw the heaviest rainfall.
04:00
It's the area in red there.
04:02
And, John, this was several inches of rain falling very quickly.
04:07
It was.
04:07
And this is also important to point out.
04:09
It kind of goes back to my earlier comments about the context of flooding
04:13
in this part of the state of Texas.
04:15
This is perhaps the most flash flood vulnerable part of the country
04:20
because of the fact that you have complex terrain, lots of hills and valleys
04:24
that that water can pour into, and oftentimes access to gulf moisture
04:29
or moisture from the eastern Pacific.
04:31
Slow-moving storms, that's what happened in this particular case.
04:34
And the Guadalupe River went from probably just a typical lazy river,
04:38
a little bit of slow motion, to a wall of water with height rises of 30 feet
04:45
of fast-moving water in less than an hour.
04:48
And there's nothing worse than fast-moving water.
04:51
It will destroy everything in its path.
04:54
And that's what led to this tragic outcome in terms of just water
04:59
that came way too fast down that river, which has happened many times before
05:05
across the hill country of south-central Texas, including the Wimberley area flash flood
05:12
that happened back in 2015 where there was another wall of water,
05:15
again another situation where water rose 30 feet in the matter of an hour,
05:19
and along the Guadalupe River in 1987, another catastrophic flash flood.
05:24
So this area of Texas is known for these types of dangerous flash floods,
05:28
which is even more reason that all flash flood warnings need to be taken seriously,
05:34
and you have to assume that a very serious situation,
05:37
a life-threatening situation is going to evolve.
05:39
Well, that's why immediate flash flood warnings are issued to indicate that immediate risk to life and property.
05:46
Yeah, I mean, there were flash flood emergencies issued as well, an even higher level of alert.
05:50
But I'm sure a lot of people are sitting here thinking, how did this happen?
05:54
And we do have a graphic that kind of shows the weather pattern
05:56
that really is a big reason why we had this situation.
05:59
Well, it's the classic setup across this part of the country with slow-moving thunderstorms
06:05
that produced two to four inches of rainfall per hour.
06:09
They were parked over the same areas,
06:12
access to near-record levels of atmospheric moisture flowing in from the south.
06:17
That's a recipe for trouble,
06:19
and that's a recipe for this very serious flash flooding,
06:22
and that's what's occurred here.
06:24
And of course, I want to give another reminder that you said it.
06:27
Take all flash flood warnings seriously,
06:30
and just assume that it is a life-threatening situation.
06:33
Yeah, that's extremely important.
06:35
That's why the warnings are issued,
06:37
in order to be able to provide that notification
06:39
and that advance notice that that's the time to act,
06:43
to seek higher ground.
06:44
And especially if you're in an area along a river or a creek or a stream,
06:51
those are the types of situations where water can rapidly rise
06:55
and a life-threatening emergency can quickly happen.
06:58
It was very scary and concerning to hear some campers from camps along in that area
07:03
indicating that they were awoken not by somebody telling them
07:07
that there was a warning and they needed to evacuate,
07:09
but rather they were awoken by water rising up to the second level of cabins.
07:15
The question is, why did that happen with advance warnings,
07:20
advance flash flood warnings indicating that immediate risk to life and safety?
07:23
And that's the question that's going to have to be answered here in the coming weeks.
07:28
AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist John Porter, thanks so much for joining us.
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