- 7/3/2025
Yes, the market is overbought, but here's why it can trend higher near-term. Chris Versace, Helene Meisler and Todd Campbell talk tariffs, the dollar, the summer tennis season and more.
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00:00Welcome, everyone, to the next episode of The Street's Stocks and Markets podcast, where we talk about, well, you guessed it, stocks and markets.
00:11I'm Chris Versace, The Street Pro Portfolio's Portfolio Manager.
00:15Joining me today, two wonderful, wonderful guests, two of my favorites, actually.
00:20First, a market technician and a trader.
00:23That's right, folks.
00:24Helene Meisler is back with us, the author of The Street Pro's Top Stocks.
00:28Got to get that right.
00:29And I will say this, it is required reading.
00:33And then old friend of the podcast, one Todd Campbell.
00:37Todd is the co-executive editor at thestreet.com.
00:45I welcome you both as we get ready to start the second half of the markets 2025.
00:51How are we doing?
00:53Hi.
00:56It's great to be here, Chris.
00:57Looking forward to catching up more with you and talking a little bit about what happened so far in 2025.
01:03What a crazy ride it's been.
01:06And what might be coming next?
01:08Well, let's start with that, because, you know, I think at the beginning of the year, expectations were, you know, pretty good.
01:14Market was moving nicely higher January, February.
01:17And then we kind of hit a skid mark.
01:18We continued to fall, especially once we got to Liberation Day in early April.
01:24And then slowly but surely, some of the uncertainties that were weighing on the market started to dial back a little bit.
01:30Lo and behold, we exit the first half of the year, the S&P 500, at a new record high.
01:35Potentially, Helene, correct me if I'm wrong, overbought.
01:39Yes, overbought.
01:44But so we we got overbought right around Memorial Day.
01:49Oh, interesting.
01:50Oh, interesting.
01:51OK.
01:52And all we got out of that was basically a big chop sideways for a couple of weeks.
01:59Then we had last week, we had that big leg up.
02:02But so in last week's big leg up, a lot of stocks didn't participate.
02:12I know.
02:13I know.
02:14Breath made a new high and all of that.
02:15Right.
02:16But if you take a look and you go through, I have a pile of charts like this.
02:21And if you were forced to go through this pile of charts every single day, you would get what I'm talking about.
02:28Because I'm putting a pencil to the paper every day and some days I'm like, it is not even worth the lead.
02:34Interesting.
02:35And as you know, Chris, because we use the same pencils.
02:39These are not cheap pencils.
02:41They are not.
02:42When I waste lead, I'm not happy.
02:46However, let me say.
02:49Yeah.
02:50So in terms of being overbought, yes, we've been overbought.
02:54But we eased a lot of that overboughtness by going sideways.
02:59So kind of the pressure is let off a little bit is what you're saying.
03:03It got let off.
03:05The problem up until today, I'm happy today.
03:11The problem up until today was that we just didn't have a lot of participation.
03:15Last week was very index.
03:17Even though breath has made a new high, it just really wasn't great.
03:22Today, we have all my favorite down and outers coming on.
03:28Yeah.
03:29Okay.
03:30So we're not talking Nvidia, right?
03:32We're not talking Apple.
03:33What are we talking about?
03:34We're not talking what's up already.
03:35What's up already is overbought.
03:37Okay.
03:38What's down and out, not so much.
03:41And that's because they've been left in the dust for months.
03:46Okay.
03:47One example.
03:48Okay.
03:49Look at Pepsi.
03:50I know we can't pull up a chart.
03:52But Pepsi has literally been bouncing along the bottom for three months now.
03:57And today, it's having a spectacular day.
03:59Take a look at UPS bouncing along the bottom.
04:03Today, it's having a great day.
04:05You know what?
04:06I wonder how much of that is attributed to the fact that we're just flipping the calendar
04:11here.
04:12100%.
04:13You know, and maybe some people are looking, hey, okay, I wasn't going to buy Pepsi going
04:19to the quarter end and have to show that I own a whole bunch of Pepsi in my portfolio
04:23instead of Nvidia.
04:24Now I can pick it up and see if I get a little bit of bounce back.
04:28Well, we did that today in the portfolio.
04:30We actually picked up shares of TJX companies today.
04:33Nice.
04:34Yeah.
04:35I think there's always a lot of that going on at the end of the quarter, beginning of
04:40a year or, you know.
04:43But so we had this sort of rotation about a month ago.
04:50And it didn't last.
04:51It lasted one day.
04:54Let me tell you why I think this can last a little bit longer.
05:00And that's because in my column and my letter yesterday or this morning, I had a chart of
05:07the equal weight S&P relative to the S&P.
05:13And a month ago, that chart wasn't at the bottom the way it has been.
05:19The way it is today.
05:20The way it is today.
05:22And usually when it, at least in recent years, when it's gotten down this low, you have gotten
05:32that group rotation.
05:33Yeah.
05:34And you're talking about S&P relative to.
05:36Right?
05:37So you're talking about a ratio of.
05:39And I saw the chart that you posted, Helene.
05:41It was fascinating.
05:42It's really banging around on the bottom there.
05:44You know, and clearly you're right.
05:47Nobody had any interest in some of these other baskets.
05:50It's intriguing to me a little bit that we've seen financials kicking in.
05:54And maybe that had something to do with the news that came out over the weekend or Friday
05:59or whatever.
06:00Friday afternoon.
06:01Friday afternoon, the stress test.
06:02Maybe that just clears a hurdle.
06:04Now people can feel like, oh, I'm a little bit more confident now.
06:07I'm not going to get hit over the head by some surprising news.
06:09I can go out and buy some of those.
06:11But it is good to see, and that's the second largest S&P 500 sector, right?
06:1514%.
06:16But one of the things that I was interested in is on, you said we're overbought.
06:22When I was, I used to follow you so closely when I was working on the pro side of things
06:26at the street.
06:27One of the things I really enjoyed looking at was your intermediate versus your short-term
06:31overbought and oversold.
06:33And I found your intermediate kind of gelled more with my investment style.
06:38It was more of a, I considered it to be more of a lasting or significant signal when it's
06:45overbought, oversold.
06:46When you're saying-
06:47Only because, because Todd, it should last many weeks to months, where a short-term should
06:53last days to weeks.
06:55So when you say we're overbought now, is that on your shorter term or on your intermediate
06:59term indicator?
07:00Okay.
07:01So the intermediate term got overbought, came down.
07:06My sense now is this rally we're having, because remember my, my oscillators, short and
07:13intermediate term are all based on breadth.
07:16And so this is giving us good breadth in the market, something like this.
07:21And so what should happen is that the overbought, overbought, oversold, intermediate term oscillator
07:31should now lift.
07:33My guess is it's going to make a lower high.
07:36Yeah.
07:37So the intermediate actually-
07:39And then we'll be fully overbought.
07:41It's going back.
07:42So we can, so, so for the listener, when you put these two together, it sounds like even
07:47though we're overbought, with the oscillator moving higher, as you just said, the market
07:51can still churn a little bit higher from here.
07:55Yes.
07:56But Chris, you need to understand that it's the, it's the stocks that have been hot that
08:03move the S&P.
08:04Oh yeah, sure.
08:05And the stocks that haven't been hot don't budget.
08:10Right.
08:11And, and, and for the listener-
08:13And so, and so what, if you look, go back and look at that ratio that I did, right?
08:19You'll see that when the RSP starts outperforming the S&P, it's because all those index movers
08:29come down.
08:30Right.
08:31So I can't tell you that the S&P is going to keep cranking here.
08:34No, no.
08:35I'm not saying-
08:36Right.
08:37Because if those, if the Nvidia's of the world give back some of those monstrous gains, then
08:42that's going to obviously weigh down the S&P 500, but the equal, and the equal rate,
08:46weight relative will, will, will increase.
08:49Right.
08:50You may not get a lot more upside in the S&P here.
08:55Right.
08:56You know, maybe you get another, whatever, 50 or a hundred points, but, but what you're
09:02really going to get is a, just a group rotation into what's been down.
09:06And, and maybe eventually they just sort of both come together.
09:11And, and in the last three examples of when that ratio got down here, that's pretty much
09:19what happened.
09:20And then they all sort of came down together.
09:22Okay.
09:23Okay.
09:24So, so what we're talking about here for the listener is, you know, you need to really understand
09:28the differences in how some of these indices we're talking about the S&P 500 market cap versus
09:33equal weight or kind of constructed what their weightings are.
09:36Todd, you kind of alluded in video, which depending on the day is number one, number two carries
09:40a lot of weight in the market cap weighted one, but in the equal weight, it's just that
09:45it's equal weighted with the rest.
09:46So the impact good or bad is a little more muted.
09:50So the market is overbought.
09:53You know, there's some concerns about we're going forward.
09:56We've got a lot of things kind of out there, whether it's the upcoming earnings season,
10:01trade deals, what lasting tariff levels are, the passage of Trump's big, beautiful bill.
10:08And as we're sitting here today, it has cleared the Senate by one vote.
10:12Now it goes to the house.
10:14Todd, which of these things or something else is kind of weighing on your mind as we kick
10:19off the second half of the year?
10:20I think all of it's weighing over our mind and nobody really cares.
10:23I mean, you think about the way the market's forward looking, right?
10:26So it's always price.
10:27It's looking ahead.
10:28It's saying, okay, what's going to be my problem in six months?
10:30What's my problem in 12 months?
10:32So in April, we priced in a tremendous amount of risk.
10:36Stagflation risk, recession risk.
10:39What's tariff going to do to inflation?
10:41What's the Fed going to end up doing because of that?
10:44I mean, there were just so many unknowns, right?
10:47That they were weighing on investor sentiment.
10:49We got that nice oversold reading and early.
10:52I mean, when we get the RSI down to like 22, I think on the S&P or something like that.
10:57We got very, very oversold in early April.
11:01We got all those dip buyers that rallied it in.
11:03I fully admit last time I was on the show that, you know, I raised a lot of cash into that rally into mid-April.
11:10I'm still sitting on a lot of cash because I do.
11:14I am still concerned about all these things.
11:16I think that there are still looming threats.
11:19That being said, my beta in my account is high enough.
11:22I've outperformed the S&P despite having almost 40% in cash, which is, you know, quite a thing.
11:29It just tells you how much risk I do have on in my portfolio.
11:32But yeah, so I mean, all of these things I think are still risks that would have to be on the mind of investors.
11:38But I think a lot of it was priced in.
11:40And then we got this lockout rally.
11:42I think most people, myself included, thought we would get a higher low, kind of like a pullback to a higher low.
11:50We wouldn't get the V. We'd get a pullback to a higher low and then we'd go again.
11:53And I was kind of looking for that as an opportunity to and I was everybody else was, too, apparently.
11:59So, you know, as Helene likes to say, you walk up to the fence.
12:02Not everybody jumps over at the same time.
12:04A couple of people scramble over it and then a couple more people scramble over it, a couple more people scrambling over it.
12:08I think that continued to happen.
12:09And that's why we've gotten up to the all time highs on the market now.
12:13I think that the big, beautiful bill, so-called, is creates some concerns, obviously, as far as the amount of debt that is.
12:22It does structurally.
12:24But for the average investor, they're looking at it and saying, hmm, how is this going to save me money?
12:29Do I get a tax break?
12:30You know, to be retirees, we're looking at the increased Social Security income tax deduction.
12:36It could be people who are living in high property tax states who are looking at that salt tax deduction and thinking, hmm, maybe I'll be able to write off a little bit more there.
12:45Last I saw, it's going from ten to ten thousand to forty thousand for five years.
12:50Yeah.
12:51Yeah.
12:52Ten to forty.
12:53And then the Senate tried to roll that back and the House said, no way, Jose.
12:55Let's get forty or nothing.
12:57So the Senate had to go back to the forty.
12:59And then I think with the Social Security income tax deduction, it's going to six thousand, which is a pretty sizable jump.
13:05I can't remember if it was four thousand before two thousand, but it's a sizable enough jump to to make it relevant to people who are retirees.
13:12And, you know, that's so anytime you're putting more money in the pockets of potential investors, theoretically, that's energy that could flow into the markets at some point, depending on how sentiment plays out.
13:24I mean, Helene will talk sentiment sentiment says it's all said, you know, what the market does in the short to intermediate term is going to be determined by how people how people feel about the economy, their jobs, their wallets, that kind of stuff.
13:39So, so Helene, what are we seeing on the sentiment front?
13:42More and more increased bullishness.
13:47The one indicator on sentiment.
13:51No, not one.
13:52Come on.
13:53I'm looking at all of them.
13:54But the one I'm focused on this week is the daily sentiment indicator.
13:59Okay.
14:00The DSI.
14:02Right now, I guess the S&P looks like it's maybe still not really going in.
14:08It's still not really going anywhere today.
14:11But the S&P and NASDAQ last night got to 82.
14:15It's a scale of zero to 100.
14:17When you get over 85, you're sort of in the watch out mode.
14:20And when you get over 90, it's it's red lights flashing.
14:25Obviously, today's action, should it stick through the end of the day, is not going to keep those going up.
14:32But let's just say that when do we have the employment number is Thursday this week.
14:41Thursday. Yeah. Yeah.
14:42So let's just say today's Tuesday.
14:44Let's just say, you know, those stocks don't continue to roll over in the fashion that they're rolling over today and we get another pop late in the week.
14:53But it's so powerful that those numbers get up over 85 by the end of the week if we get a pop.
15:00And if we do, connected with probably this wonderful rotation that we're getting now and the overboughtness will probably all converge somewhere around the second week of July.
15:15Okay, so let's think about that. What kind of a number, Todd, do we need to see on the employment report, a better than expected number or a really bad number for us to pop to that?
15:27That is a great question, because, you know, it's it's is bad news.
15:32Good news. I mean, that's that's when you get your rallies right when people start to look at bad news and say, hey, you know what?
15:38That's pretty good. And you could argue. I mean, there's there are, you know, I think it's the bank from Eric Morris.
15:43I apologize to whichever one of the economists came out with this.
15:47I think they were looking at four point three percent in unemployment.
15:50That would be up from four point two percent. Obviously, the low is three point four percent in 2023.
15:55So we're losing jobs. I mean, Challenger Gray and Crispus, I think we're up to six hundred ninety six thousand plus layoffs year to date through May.
16:03That's up to 80 percent year over year. I think that if you get up to four point three percent, people are going to look at that number and say, Fed cut, Fed cut, Fed cut.
16:13So so that's the thing. Right. I think a lot of folks have become trained, at least maybe it's the group that we hang with that have become trained.
16:20Yeah, there's the unemployment rate, but it's the number of jobs. Right.
16:23The non farm print. And one of the things that I've been struggling with is do we need to see a negative non farm print number?
16:32Right. To get the Fed to move, because otherwise we're still, you know, we're still adding jobs.
16:38Things are still good because he's sitting out here.
16:42Well, no, no, I know. I know. I know.
16:45I know. Right. No, no, I agree.
16:49But but the hard part for the Fed is, you know, these inflation numbers. Right.
16:53So Powell's talking about seeing inflation creep back in.
16:56As we take today, Tuesday, we got the manufacturing PMI numbers from ISM that actually ticked higher.
17:02Right. There were sixty nine point four in May sixty nine seven.
17:06The market was looking for it to come down right now.
17:09I realize that you could say, but Chris, that's only 15 percent of the economy.
17:12The service numbers are more important.
17:14And they are. And they are. But this is.
17:17Yeah, I think it's.
17:19Totally agree.
17:20Totally agree.
17:21As long as inflation stays below three percent, any worsening and unemployment rate gives the cover necessary for a cut.
17:29But I don't I think July is too soon, but we could still get it.
17:33We had what Bowman and another individual.
17:37I'm just going to say this.
17:42I flat out disagree with that.
17:44I suspect that those two clowns are jockeying for Powell's position.
17:49That's what I think you're 100 percent.
17:51Everyone is jockeying for the position.
17:54But you know what, to be honest with you, in a perfect world, a non-Trump world, that is a difficult job.
18:02Then you layer that on top.
18:04You can keep that job.
18:05Thank you very much.
18:07I think that one of the things that really strikes me is how.
18:15Not many people expect anything to happen in 2025 at this point as far as rate cuts.
18:20The Fed's dot plot said to most people in September.
18:25American Morgan Stanley has said zero.
18:28What's really interesting to me is 2026 and how aggressive people are.
18:34I mean, we've got Bank of America saying at least one percent of cuts in 2026.
18:40Morgan Stanley said seven, seven rate cuts.
18:44How horrible is this economy going to be if we get seven cuts?
18:49You know, that's Chris's negative print.
18:52Yeah, exactly.
18:53And then some.
18:55The look, we we all know that the market has just over the last, you know, was it 18 months been more aggressive?
19:05I'll use my favorite word, hopium instilled looking for rate cuts.
19:10And they've been dialed back, dialed back, dialed back.
19:13So when I see, when I see seven out there, Todd, I just got to shake my head like that's ridiculous.
19:18Nobody knows that far out, to be honest.
19:21And I think that we'll see them kind of move.
19:23It's the same mythical nonsense where forward year S&P 500 EPS numbers are always up 10% until they're not.
19:31Right.
19:32Because the year is always back end loaded.
19:35You know this.
19:36I do know that.
19:37And I also know Helene, and I'll use that as a segue, that consensus S&P 500 EPS numbers for the second half of the year are now at 8.6%.
19:46Right.
19:47Second half versus the first half.
19:49End of March, 14%.
19:51So, so, so as I sit here and I think about the second half of the year.
19:56Yeah.
19:57Back to your point.
19:58Right, right, right.
20:00But, but, but now I'm going to flip it because then I'm going to come to you on this, Todd.
20:03So they've come down.
20:05Now let's say that the big, beautiful bill gets passed.
20:09There is some tax relief.
20:11We get some trade deals.
20:13All of a sudden, could we start to see those numbers move higher in the back half of the year?
20:17Yes.
20:18I think 100%.
20:19I think you had a massive rethink of forward earnings estimates by Wall Street in March and April, February, March and April.
20:28You had 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico in February.
20:33You know, autos at 25%.
20:34China.
20:35China.
20:3630%.
20:37Baseline tariff now of 10%.
20:38Everybody was cutting their estimates based upon.
20:41Yeah.
20:42Yeah.
20:43People, the hit to revenue and the hit to demand.
20:44And I think that now they've delivered them down to levels where the next move is for them to actually raise them up a little bit as they start to get a little bit more comfortable that, okay, this is probably where they're going to work out.
20:55This is where they're going to stay.
20:56They're not going to worsen from here.
20:58So I can actually start to raise my, and that is the lifeblood of over time stocks.
21:03Well, I do believe stocks follow earnings over time and earnings growth over time.
21:09Totally agree.
21:10But let me throw a little wild card into you.
21:12Okay.
21:13So, Lutnik has said we could have 10 trade deals coming.
21:18I doubt that China is happening.
21:20And then based on some of the news about a late July timeframe for Canada, I think it's fair to say they're off the board.
21:27So is it possible that the market is underwhelmed by the trade deal announcements that we do get near term?
21:34I think as long as it seems like it's a status quo, people will have that off their bingo card.
21:41If Trump starts saying it's going to go to 50% on Canada next week because they're not making a trade deal, that's a different story.
21:47But I don't think many, I don't think, who knows, right?
21:51Nobody knows what happens.
21:52It becomes guesswork now.
21:53But I do think that as long as it's status quo, they won't care as well.
21:58Look, they didn't care about UK.
22:00The China deal and the UK deal, they were not, there's nothing, there's no real there there.
22:05All they cared was that, okay, it looks like we're stabilizing out at a particular point.
22:09Right, so you're saying as long as there's some potential progress and we move towards a new framework over time, the market will wrap its head around it.
22:19Yeah, because in April, May, they were expecting Armageddon.
22:22Right.
22:23Anything less than Armageddon is actually a win.
22:26So Helene, any thoughts on this you want to share?
22:28Yeah, I don't think the market cares about tariffs.
22:31Ooh, okay.
22:32I've said this since May.
22:34Okay.
22:35Maybe late April.
22:36Doesn't care.
22:37Mark, it's not even thinking about tariffs.
22:40So if they're not thinking about tariffs, what is the market?
22:43We stopped thinking about tariffs as soon as Trump dialed it back, what, like a week after Liberation Day?
22:52April.
22:53April.
22:54We stopped thinking about it.
22:55We started focusing on the economy.
22:57We started focusing on tax cuts and the Fed cutting.
23:01Okay.
23:02What could, what could throw a monkey wrench in?
23:05I suppose, you know, as Todd said, if you all of a sudden they start talking about 50% tax rates on Canada or whatever.
23:14But whatever, whatever it is that takes us down next, it is my view that it's not anything we're discussing right now.
23:26Oh, so some other black swanity, right?
23:29It never is.
23:30Okay.
23:31It never is.
23:32Because if we were, if we're discussing it, it's priced in.
23:35It's a great point, Helene.
23:37Fair enough.
23:38Fair enough.
23:39You know, if you look back a year ago, I mean, even December, how many people really thought, I mean, they've talked about tariffs.
23:44So he's going to do tariffs or whatever, but it was, you know, it's like.
23:47Did anybody expect that ridiculous formula he whipped out?
23:51No.
23:52I don't think so.
23:53Which is why the market reacted.
23:54Right.
23:55Right.
23:56By the news.
23:57Now, if he did it again, would the market react the same way?
24:01A little bit.
24:03But now it's sort of like it's in, it's front and center in everybody's head.
24:07And so it's going to have to be something different.
24:10Okay.
24:11So let's, let's presume that something does happen.
24:14Helene, is there, are there areas of support that you're eyeing in the S&P 500 that people should be watching out for?
24:20Oh, you know, there's a million areas of support and, you know, my view is we almost always blow through them or never get to them.
24:29It's probably more important to me how the index movers act versus how these down and outers act.
24:41So let's just say the down and outers who are having a glorious day today come down and they don't make lower lows.
24:52That's all part of a basing.
24:55Okay.
24:56Right.
24:57If they break and make lower lows, I don't care that they don't move the index.
25:04That all of a sudden, all my statistics start to look terrible.
25:07My new lows start expanding.
25:09The, the breath starts getting terrible.
25:11And, you know, so to me, that's more important on a pullback is how many stocks are making new lows and are they building bases or are they, or, or are we going to discover that?
25:26You know, again, I'm going to keep talking about Pepsi, but take, go take a look at Pepsi.
25:31Pepsi, it is, it had that big slide.
25:35It had a rally in March, I think it was.
25:38And then it had a renewed slide.
25:40And now it has been doing this since then.
25:44If, and, and it's having a rally today up out of that little consolidation.
25:50If it turns and heads south and doesn't make a lower low, that's going to be part of a base.
25:57If it breaks, this whole period in here is just going to look like consolidation before it went lower.
26:03Okay.
26:04I think that's a great point.
26:05And I've got a whole, and it's, and I pick on Pepsi because it's such an easy chart that anyone who pulls it up could go, oh, I see what she needs.
26:12But I've got a whole pile of charts that look just like that.
26:17Okay.
26:18Okay.
26:19There's more than one way to work off overbought, right, Helene?
26:22Yeah.
26:23Time or price.
26:25But, but Todd, you know, when it comes to an overbought reading where you've rallied on an intermediate term basis to a lower high, usually that's not as easy.
26:38Usually that means you're going to have to do it in price.
26:42Well, you know, what's intriguing too is we are coming into July, which is typically an okay month for the markets, right?
26:48It's the strongest of the third quarter, but we are into the third quarter.
26:51So it, you know, I always look at seasonality just because it's interesting that some things do tend to repeat over and over and over again.
26:59And August isn't necessarily a very friendly month.
27:02I mean, we, you know, you know, so, and, and it does make me wonder, will we just,
27:07sort of like, if you look at, and I know you don't follow RSI, Helene, but, you know, if you look at RSI, you know, we get above 70 on the S&P 500.
27:16It does, or the NASDAQ, our major index, it can tell you that, you know, you're getting a little bit of a warning signal.
27:22Maybe you should take your foot off the accelerator a little bit and, and, you know, rein in a little bit of your risk.
27:27And I look back at the last two times, we got a reading above 70 on the S&P 500, you know, December.
27:33And I think we're reaching about 4.75%, something like that, over the course of through what, January 10th, I think it was, January 10th or 11th.
27:42And then we did it in May again, we got up to, well, not quite 70, 69.97.
27:49I don't know if we, is that close enough?
27:51We were close.
27:52We were close.
27:53And we retreated about 2.7% in relatively short order.
27:58So it'd be interesting to see to me if, if we turn sideways to slightly down because of the big dominant players in the S&P 500, as you were alluding to before, then videos give a little bit back.
28:12Some of these other things that have moved a lot, give a little bit back.
28:15We turn a little bit sideways, we pull back to maybe, you know, a more relative, a relative strength index that's more neutral.
28:22At the same time, we give up maybe in the index 3%, we'll call it.
28:27And then by September, are we setting ourselves up for a little bit better of a push into year end if we can buy another low in September or October?
28:34I don't know.
28:35Possible.
28:36We'll see.
28:37I got, I'm gonna, I'm gonna say that one of the things that none of you are talking about,
28:45that I think we really have to focus on here is the dollar.
28:49Oh my goodness.
28:50Good point.
28:51Good point.
28:52Because all of a sudden, everybody is, a weak dollar is good for multinationals.
28:56Right.
28:57Right.
28:58I remember when a weak dollar was bearish, but okay, now it's bullish.
29:01And I think the dollar is bottoming.
29:03I've been wrong.
29:04I've been wrong.
29:05I've been wrong.
29:06I've been wrong.
29:07I can't help it.
29:08I think the dollar is making a low.
29:09And if the dollar starts going up, I'm certain the narrative is going to change that a strong dollar is good.
29:14But whatever it is, you've got to watch that because that does have an effect on earnings.
29:20100%.
29:21You know what, you know what sector has the biggest impact on, right, Chris?
29:25I'm going to guess you're going to say technology, Todd?
29:29Yep.
29:30It used to be drugs.
29:31It used to be drugs.
29:3259% of sales for technology companies in the S&P 500 come from overseas.
29:40So how much is this hope?
29:43Wait, wait.
29:44Are you saying that there's more to AI outside the US than not?
29:48I mean, you know.
29:49I just think that like how much of the hope that earnings revisions are going to go higher
29:56are based upon the impact of the weaker dollar on technology stocks and what happens to Helene's
30:04point if the dollar does find its footing here.
30:07It's a three year low.
30:08You know, more than three years.
30:10I don't know.
30:11I don't think we've seen consensus expectations for NVIDIA, Meta, Microsoft.
30:17You know, some of those have been revised over the last few weeks to account, you know,
30:22specifically for the dollar.
30:23I think there are a lot of folks out there going, channel checks are good.
30:26You know, yada, yada, yada.
30:28But they're not saying anything about that.
30:30So I think you're right, Helene.
30:31I think, you know, few people are really focused in on the dollar.
30:34Or if they are, they're not saying.
30:36Let me ask you something.
30:37If the dollar becomes from down in the first half of the year primarily to up in less, maybe
30:48not through year end, but in the third quarter, that could turn out to be the story of the
30:54third quarter.
30:55Yeah.
30:56Yeah.
30:57Because everything, I mean, everything else that we've been talking about in theory could
31:02work its way out before we get through the end of the current quarter.
31:05Right?
31:06So then all of a sudden, what's the new driving narrative?
31:08It could be the dollar.
31:09It could be something else, but it could be the dollar.
31:12Yeah.
31:13Well, as we talk about winding through the third quarter, Helene, a lot of tennis to
31:19watch.
31:20You got Wimbledon.
31:21We've got the US Open.
31:23Who are you thinking is going to do well this year?
31:26Well, I'm currently watching Wimbledon.
31:29You may notice my eyes keep shifting over towards the top.
31:32I have.
31:33You're watching Wimbledon.
31:34I'm watching the clock.
31:35It's all fair.
31:36I always, you know, I like.
31:41I love the summer months because you start out with the clay season.
31:48Then you go to grass, which lasts for like this long.
31:52And then you get the hard court season.
31:55And you know that, that I always fear that this little rally we're having in those down
32:01and outs that I love so much is going to be like the grass court season.
32:07Short.
32:08Got it.
32:09I'm glad you connected that.
32:10And it's not going to be lengthy like that hard court season we have that comes after Wimbledon.
32:15Todd, are you a tennis fan or are you more pickleball in nature?
32:19No, I do like tennis.
32:21I like to, I used to like to play tennis.
32:23And unfortunately I did a number to my elbow two or three years ago.
32:28And now tennis is dead to me.
32:30Wow.
32:31I don't want to watch it.
32:32I don't want to play it.
32:33I don't want to.
32:34Geez.
32:35I too used to play it and it, my elbow is not great.
32:40So I don't play anymore.
32:41Why are you, we should have like a street pickleball team.
32:45You don't have to move that far.
32:46You don't have to hit the ball that hard.
32:50My sister blew out her Achilles playing pickleball.
32:51So no, thank you.
32:52Do you know what chiropractors, not chiropractors, sorry, orthopedics surgeons call a pickleball.
33:03Money in the bank.
33:05Right.
33:06Cripple ball.
33:07All right.
33:08Uh, guys, before we get out of here, anything else we should talk about?
33:14Any, any big thoughts about the second half of the year?
33:17Todd, you want to get off your chest before we have you back on in a couple months?
33:20No, I think everybody should remember that it is summer.
33:22Enjoy time with family and friends.
33:24Um, you know, the market is not what I expected.
33:27Market's going to do what the market's going to do.
33:29Right.
33:30Um, and just remember that, uh, good times and bad times as we learn in April day, things
33:36can change on a dime.
33:37It's just the way the market is.
33:39Uh, Elaine, anything to add?
33:42Watch sentiment.
33:43Well, I'll say, uh, I agree with both of you, but then again, you put it all together.
33:48It just says, keep coming back to the street pro and the street to see what all the contributors
33:53have to say.
33:54And with that folks, that is this week's episode of the stocks and markets podcast.
33:58Thanks for listening.
33:59We'll be back with a fresh episode before you know it.
34:06Bye.
34:07Bye.
34:08Bye.
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