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00:00America is 36 trillion dollars in debt.
00:03That's a number so big it's nearly impossible to comprehend.
00:07But it's still money owed to someone.
00:09People often point to China as the biggest lender.
00:12And sure enough, they hold about 750 billion dollars worth of it.
00:16But here's the thing, China is also drowning in debt of its own.
00:20In fact, over 18 trillion dollars worth and counting.
00:24So who's holding their debt?
00:26A lot of it sits with Chinese banks.
00:28But those same banks also own debt from the United States.
00:31And American banks, they're holding debt from China.
00:34And Europe.
00:35And just about everyone else.
00:37If that sounds confusing, it's because it is.
00:40The deeper you go, the more entangled it all becomes.
00:44Every country is borrowing.
00:46Every country is lending.
00:47And somehow, the world is now 300 trillion dollars in debt.
00:51Triple the size of the actual global economy.
00:54But if the world is in this much debt, then who is it all owed to?
00:58It's a really simple question.
00:59But one with a surprisingly complicated answer.
01:02It's not just a weird accounting trick.
01:04But a clue that something much deeper is happening under the surface.
01:08The answer reveals how the modern world isn't built on stability.
01:11It's built on motion.
01:13On an ever-ending cycle of borrowing, lending and reinvesting.
01:17This is the story of how global debt became the engine of the modern world.
01:21And what would happen if people really stopped lending?
01:25Debt might sound like a modern problem.
01:27Just a big, scary number on a government spreadsheet.
01:30But in reality, it's one of the oldest ideas in human history.
01:33Long before banks, before coins or paper money, debt was simply a promise.
01:38Imagine lending your neighbour a bag of grain in the spring.
01:41When harvest came, they'd pay you back.
01:43Maybe with a little extra as a thank you.
01:45No interest rates.
01:46No complicated contracts.
01:48Just trust.
01:49Because for thousands of years, humans understood a simple concept.
01:52Sometimes you need something right away, but can only pay for it later.
01:56That's all debt really is at its core.
01:58Borrowing from tomorrow to solve a problem today.
02:02Over time, simple personal loans evolved into something much bigger.
02:06Kings wanted castles.
02:07Empires needed ships and cannons.
02:09But no single lender could foot the bill.
02:12In the 1600s, England faced this exact same problem.
02:15King Charles II was preparing for war with the Dutch.
02:18But the treasury was empty.
02:20And the nobles refused to lend.
02:22So they tried something new.
02:24They sold pieces of debt to the public.
02:26In return for cash, citizens got a written promise of repayment with interest.
02:31A bond.
02:32It was simple, but it changed everything.
02:34States could now raise huge sums of money without raising taxes or draining their treasuries.
02:39And by the 20th century, bonds went global.
02:42World War I and II pushed countries to borrow at an unprecedented scale.
02:46Not just to fight, but to rebuild.
02:48Then, in 1944, the Bretton Woods Agreement made the US dollar the centerpiece of the global financial system.
02:55Currencies were tied to the dollar.
02:56The dollar was tied to gold.
02:58But gold was limited.
03:00And economies had to grow.
03:02As the US ramped up spending, there wasn't enough gold to back the flood of dollars in circulation.
03:07So in 1971, President Nixon broke the link.
03:10Ending the gold standard.
03:12From that point on, money became what we now call fiat currency.
03:16Not backed by gold or anything physical.
03:18Just by government decree.
03:20Governments could now create at will.
03:22And if that sounds like a recipe for endless borrowing, it was.
03:25From the 1980s onwards, global debt exploded.
03:29Countries discovered that borrowing wasn't just useful in wartime.
03:32It could fuel the economy's growth too.
03:34And so borrow they did.
03:36To build schools.
03:37Repair roads.
03:38And even to carry the economy out of recession.
03:41Debt became the engine of progress.
03:43For first and third world countries alike.
03:45And over time, it stopped being a last resort.
03:48And became the norm.
03:50Today, debt is how things get built.
03:52How crises get managed.
03:53And how promises get kept.
03:55And the result?
03:56A global debt mountain that now tops $300 trillion.
04:00More than three times the value of everything the world makes in a year.
04:04To put that into perspective, a stack of $1 million bills would be 100 meters tall.
04:09And about the height of a 30-story building.
04:12$1 billion would reach 100 kilometers.
04:14High enough to touch the Earth's atmosphere.
04:16But $300 trillion is enough to go to the moon and back 50 times.
04:22That's the amount of debt that we're talking about.
04:24So, if every country is borrowing, who are they borrowing from?
04:28And if everyone owes money, who's getting paid?
04:31When we talk about the national debt, it's easy to picture some big powerful shadowy figure
04:36pulling the strings and holding all the money.
04:38But that's not how it works.
04:39Because modern debt doesn't just move in straight lines like we're used to.
04:43It moves in circles.
04:44To better understand this concept, let's zoom in on the United States.
04:48The world's most indebted country.
04:50You may be wondering who can possibly lend them that much money.
04:53But here's the surprising part.
04:55Roughly 70% of the debt is actually owed to Americans themselves.
05:00So, the US borrows from itself.
05:03Here's how it works.
05:04We know that governments borrow money by issuing bonds and promising to pay it back with interest.
05:09The exact same way that you would borrow money from a bank.
05:12So, who is buying these government bonds?
05:15Well, most likely you.
05:16When you put money into the bank, it doesn't just sit there in a vault.
05:20Banks put the money to work, trying to grow it so they can pass some interest back to you.
05:24Which they do by lending, investing, and of course, buying bonds.
05:29As of now, commercial banks in the US hold nearly $1.8 trillion worth of US Treasury bonds.
05:35Triple the entire GDP of countries like Brazil or Canada.
05:39Bonds are an incredibly popular investment because they're one of the safest ways to earn interest on spare cash.
05:45Unlike the stock market, they don't bounce up and down every day.
05:48Of course, the interest rate can still be changed by the government to help manage the economy.
05:52And in the 1980s, yields jumped to over 15% as the government tried to bring down high inflation.
05:58And during the COVID recovery in 2020, they dropped below 1% to encourage more spending.
06:04But whenever you buy a bond, the rate is fixed until you get paid back fully.
06:08So whatever the government does afterwards isn't your problem.
06:11A 10-year US government bond today will pay you a steady 4.5% interest per year.
06:16Which is pretty good considering the near-zero risk.
06:19And that's a big part of why bonds and debt are so popular.
06:22So of course, it's not just banks who buy up the bonds.
06:25It's anyone sitting on a large pool of money.
06:28Pension funds, insurance companies, investment firms, they all do the same thing.
06:33Buy bonds and earn interest.
06:35In 2024, US pension funds invested a quarter of all their money into bonds.
06:41And for insurance companies, this number was even higher.
06:44Over 60% of their assets were placed in bonds,
06:47using them as a reliable way to grow their funds while keeping risk low.
06:51This creates a kind of hidden network, where people's savings become loan money for the government.
06:56So although it may sound weird that the US is borrowing from itself,
07:00it's actually just money flowing from parts of the country where it's sitting idle,
07:04to parts where it's needed and being spent.
07:06When the government pays interest on its debt, that money flows right back into the hands of the lenders,
07:11giving them even more spare cash.
07:13And what do they do with it?
07:15They buy more bonds and earn more interest.
07:18This becomes a sort of self-reinforcing loop,
07:21where money constantly cycles through the same system,
07:23by moving from lender to borrower, then back to lender, and then back to borrower.
07:28Over and over.
07:29And the same loop exists between countries too.
07:32About 30% of US debt is held overseas.
07:36Because just like American banks or pension funds,
07:38foreign governments and banks also put their spare cash into US bonds.
07:42And following the same logic, money flows in when we borrow, back out when we return, and repeats.
07:49Now, remember, it's not just the US doing this.
07:51Every country is borrowing, and every country is lending.
07:55The Japanese savings become loans for the Dutch.
07:58The Dutch savings become loans for the Brazilians.
08:00And the Brazilian savings, they end up flowing back into American bonds.
08:05The world's debt isn't just a pile of unpaid bills waiting to explode.
08:09It's more like an interconnected web of circular systems,
08:12where money flows in loops from savers to borrowers and back again.
08:16Governments borrow, investors lend, and the interest payments keep the cycle going.
08:20And while some of that money crosses borders, most of it never really leaves the system.
08:25It just changes form, hands, and keeps moving.
08:28So, if the government keeps borrowing and spending it all,
08:31how do they pay back their debt in the future?
08:33Well, here's the thing.
08:35They simply just borrow more debt to pay back their old debt.
08:38And although that might sound reckless, which it kind of is,
08:42it's actually the foundation of how the global economy now works.
08:45So, why does this system just keep going?
08:48Why doesn't the world just stop borrowing?
08:50Because now we're in a point where everything,
08:52from our economy to our politics, is built around debt.
08:56The uncomfortable truth is that debt fuels growth.
08:58When the government borrows and spends, money circulates into the economy.
09:02Businesses earn more, workers get paid, and so they spend more.
09:06It becomes a feedback loop that keeps the economy expanding,
09:09so everyone can be better off.
09:11In China, 19% of all government spending comes from debt,
09:15meaning 1 in every 5 yuan their spend is actually borrowed.
09:18And this figure is even higher in the US, around 1 in 4 dollars.
09:22That's the same amount of money it spends on both education and welfare combined.
09:27If the government suddenly stops borrowing, it would have to spend less,
09:30and money stops flowing into the economy.
09:32Businesses earn less, workers lose their jobs, and so they stop spending.
09:36That very same loop that grows the economy is turned upside down, leaving everyone worse off.
09:41Take Greece for example.
09:43When the 2008 financial crisis hit,
09:45investors panicked and suddenly stopped buying Greek bonds because they seemed so risky.
09:50Greece was left unable to borrow, and quickly ran out of money to spend.
09:541 in 4 public workers were fired.
09:57Wages fell by 30%, and over the next few years, their GDP shrank by a whopping 25%.
10:02Politicians know this, and so do the people.
10:06Everyone wants the government to keep on spending, so the economy can keep on growing.
10:10And so no one wins elections promising austerity.
10:13Vending continues, and borrowing becomes inevitable.
10:16But it's not just about growth, sometimes it's about survival.
10:20When an economic crisis hits, like Covid in 2020, people stop spending, and the economy shuts down.
10:27The only way out of this is for the government to step in,
10:30and cover that spending, people are unwilling to do.
10:32In a crisis, when people aren't paying their taxes, they have to borrow.
10:36In 2020, the US government borrowed an astonishing $3.8 trillion in a single year.
10:42Nearly 20% of their entire economy.
10:45And so did China, Europe, and every other economy out there.
10:49It wasn't a choice, but a necessity.
10:51Now remember, when you borrow money, it must be returned in the future.
10:54And if a government is already spending everything it collects just to keep the economy going,
10:58where does the money to repay old debt come from?
11:02The answer is simple.
11:03To pay back what they borrowed, they borrow again.
11:06And this debt just never leaves the system.
11:08In wealthier countries like Germany and Switzerland, this isn't seen as a major problem.
11:13Their bonds are considered safe, so they can keep on borrowing at low interest rates,
11:17making debt easier to cycle through.
11:19But for developing nations, it's a different story.
11:22Higher borrowing costs make each rollover more expensive.
11:26And over time, the debt starts to feed on itself.
11:28Countries like Sri Lanka and Pakistan have found themselves in a debt trap,
11:32where they are forced to just keep borrowing to meet the interest payments on past loans.
11:36So when people ask in America, why can't we just stop borrowing?
11:39The truth is, is that we can't.
11:42The same debt that weighs us down are actually the very pillars that the entire economy was built upon.
11:46And this raises an uncomfortable question.
11:49Can it really go on like this forever?
11:51Because no matter how smooth the cycle seems, there are risks building beneath the surface.
11:56Risks that the government avoids talking about, and that no one really wants to face.
12:01As the government continues to borrow, the debt grows, and so do the interest payments.
12:06Over time, a bigger and bigger slice of the budget goes back towards paying old loans,
12:11not funding new schools, hospitals or infrastructure.
12:13Having a debt-to-GDP ratio near 100% is now seen as the normal,
12:18when a few decades back it would have been catastrophic.
12:21This isn't really a problem when borrowing is cheap and lenders are confident.
12:24But that all changes with risk.
12:26If investors stop wanting to lend, the cost of borrowing suddenly shoots up.
12:30One way governments try to handle this is by printing more money.
12:34This might sound like an easy fix, but it comes with a big downside.
12:37When more money enters the system, it reduces the value of each individual unit.
12:42And the result is inflation.
12:43Prices rise, savings shrink, and people start to feel poorer.
12:47In extreme cases, it can spiral out of control.
12:50In Venezuela in the late 2010s, the government printed so much money to cover its debts,
12:55that the price of goods doubled every few weeks.
12:57A loaf of bread that used to cost 10 bolivars suddenly cost millions.
13:01The currency became almost worthless, and ordinary people saw their life savings vanish overnight.
13:07While most countries don't face such extreme cases,
13:09even moderate inflation can cause big problems by making their currency less valuable.
13:14The risks are even bigger for many developing countries, as they often borrow in foreign
13:18currencies like US dollars as a security, which means if their own currency weakens,
13:23paying back debt suddenly becomes more expensive in local terms.
13:27And as that burden grows, lenders may start to doubt a country's ability to repay,
13:31and it doesn't take long for the mood to shift.
13:34Suddenly investors demand higher interest rates to compensate for the risk.
13:37And when governments can't borrow enough, how do they pay back their old debt?
13:41Do they cut spending?
13:42Hike taxes?
13:43Print more money?
13:44None of these options are easy, and they all come with severe consequences.
13:48And even if they do go through it, there's no guarantee that they will even make enough money.
13:52Eventually, if their country can't find the money, and the bills come due at once,
13:56the country runs out of options.
13:58That's when they default.
14:00A default is when a country simply says, we can't pay.
14:02It's the sovereign equivalent of missing your mortgage.
14:05Except it's not just your house at risk, but the entire economy.
14:08And worst of all, the government can't just borrow its way out,
14:11because nobody wants to lend to a defaulter.
14:14But when a system becomes fragile and dependent on debt,
14:17people start looking for something real.
14:19And that's exactly what we're seeing right now.
14:22Record sums are flowing into gold in 2025.
14:25And for good reason.
14:26Gold is up nearly 28% this year alone, while the dollar is down almost 9%,
14:32trading at a three-year low.
14:34Silver just hit a 30-year high.
14:36And mining stocks, the GDXJ index, is up nearly 45%.
14:41A staggering move.
14:42Even the world's biggest banks are now making bold calls.
14:46JP Morgan sees gold reaching $4,000 by mid-2026.
14:50And this is backed up by Goldman Sachs and Bank of America.
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15:01is trading at approximately the same price it did in June 2018,
15:05when gold's price was less than half of what it was today.
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15:57This now surpasses the current market cap of the entire company,
16:00plus they hold 6.8 million dollars in cash,
16:03an equivalent of the last reported quarter in financials on February 28th, 2025.
16:08Let that sink in for a second. Their portfolio of equities,
16:12without even talking about its cash and equivalence in its gold projects,
16:16is worth more than the entire market cap. As you can see in this graph,
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16:24Gold reserves must be replenished. Size, quality and location matter.
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17:00Ruffer, BlackRock, Sprott, Morgan Stanley, GDXJ ETF, UBS and Goldman Sachs,
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17:11Management and insiders, as well as key shareholders, all have positions in this stock.
17:16It's currently trading at just 76 cents right now, as of June 12th, 2025.
17:21If you're looking at companies with leverage to the gold price and a long-term development strategy,
17:25GLDG may be worth a closer look.
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