Logan Mohtashami: Trump initiates the shadow Fed president protocol

HousingWire

On today’s episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami about Trump initiating the shadow Fed president, as well as Morgan Stanley calling for 7 rate cuts in 2026 — and what it all means for mortgage rates.  Related to this episode:  ⁠Trump initiates plan to install a shadow Fed president | HousingWire⁠ https://www.housingwire.com/articles/trump-initiates-plan-to-install-a-shadow-fed-president/  ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠HousingWire | YouTube⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXDD_3y3LvU60vac7eki-6Q  ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠More info about HousingWire⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://lnk.bio/housingwire  The HousingWire Daily podcast brings the full picture of the most compelling stories in the housing market reported across HousingWire. Each morning, listen to editor in chief Sarah Wheeler talk to leading industry voices and get a deeper look behind the scenes of the top mortgage and real estate stories. Hosted and produced by the HousingWire Content Studio.

Transcript

00:00Welcome, everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Motoshami to talk about the shadow fed

00:11president and how it's no longer theoretical. This is now a thing and what it all means for

00:16mortgage rates. Logan, welcome back to the podcast. The shadow fed president operation

00:27has begun. Actually, you know what? We really need like the Mission Impossible music.

00:32Oh, we do. Yeah. So, okay. Here you are. You've been talking about a shadow fed president

00:42since April because you looked back at some, you know, you thought, what is Trump going to do?

00:49He's super frustrated that he can't get Jerome Powell to lower rates. And when he tried,

00:53when he floated the idea of replacing Powell, things went bad very quickly. So you're like,

00:58here's what I think he's going to do. And sure enough, it sure seems like he has given us the

01:03signals that that's exactly what he's doing. So this actually takes us all the way back to

01:11November 7th, 2024. And we're sitting here Thursday morning. It was a really fun night,

01:19by the way, last night, just like trying to like explain to a wide variety of people what is going

01:29on. Cause I get it. Like if you hear the word shadow fed, you're like, what the hell is that?

01:34That, you know, but on November 7th, 2024, we, we outlaid the case. What does the white house want?

01:41Number one, they want a lower dollar dollar is getting too strong. So that was, you know,

01:47for them to become an exporting country, for them to, to do what they, what they need. If they want

01:52lower rates, the dollar needs to go lower. So there's a wide variety of things for the dollar

01:58to not be as high as 110. So that's happened, checked. Lower energy prices, not so much because

02:06we're producing much oil. My God, the oil companies are going to fight tooth and nail on

02:11any more production with oil prices here, but OPEC put more supply on. And there we are. Did Trump

02:19make a deal with them? Who knows? But in any case, check number two, then the Trinity, the last and

02:27final thing was to get rates lower. Now there's two ways to think about this. Number one, you can make

02:34the case that they really highlighted the housing market early on. They wanted the housing market to

02:39be unfrozen. They wanted, and what we've always discussed for many months is that they can frame

02:45the trade war tap dance. If oil prices are lower, if bond yields are lower, mortgage rates are lower.

02:52Then in this context, they could say, well, look at main street is winning and wall street isn't. Well,

03:00Godzilla tariffs threw everything into a ruckus. And when bond yields started to reverse higher

03:07in a very short amount of time, that was more market driven. But the president is really talking

03:13about interest payments and the deficit, stuff like that. So he's had it. He's like, forget it.

03:19I've had enough here. This isn't working. And they're at the point of where we are now, because now you

03:29have the shadow fed president starting. We'll go into that a little bit, but also the SLR,

03:34the regulations for banks to be able to hold more treasury. So the bond market could work a little

03:40bit more fluidly. They believe that can reduce the 10-year yield 30 to 60 basis points. That's

03:46questionable in my mind. But in any case, the framework for the second half of 2025 that we've

03:53been talking about for months is, oh man, there's going to be an inflection point and when it happens.

03:57And here we are. Trump leaked out that he's got a few people in mind and he wants to undermine

04:05Jerome Powell in his last 10 months, really.

04:12So this is how you do that. You have somebody who you're like, hey, he's going to be the next guy

04:18or the next woman or whatever. And they start talking about what they're going to do. How does

04:23that work to really get things down? They don't have any power until they're actually in office.

04:28Well, they're already getting bond traders and market players to get the Fed funds rate future

04:35outlook lower now. And again, we always talked about this here, the 10-year yield. If the economy's

04:42functioning fine and the Fed's not being any more dovish, 435 to 470 is perfectly acceptable. There's

04:49nothing wrong with that actually. But what do we say? There's two things that could drive the 10-year

04:54yield lower than here. It's number one, the economic data gets worse. And what we've seen in

05:00the past in 2022, 2023, 2024, and even in 2025, when the market perceives economic weakness, money goes

05:08into the bond market every time. So that's one way to do it. Or the Federal Reserve and some of their

05:15members start to sound dovish. So there was Christopher Waller, whose name was on the list.

05:21Michelle Bowman, also July rate cut. So that's two. And now we have, in a sense, the trinity of

05:28the Fed dovish talk. Trump looking to name the new Fed chair well before his time is up. And his hope is

05:40that that person is going to go out and say, Powell is finished. I'm the new sheriff. And this is how

05:47we're going to go. And what is very interesting to me is that yesterday morning, Morgan Stanley Dean

05:56Witter said, we're going to get seven rate cuts in 2026. The terminal rate is going to be two and a

06:01half to 2.75. So my first reaction is, wow, they're really bearish. Or what do we do at the

06:09U.S. Bank? We made a presentation that before Jerome Powell, someone spiked the Fed's eggnog

06:17Christmas. He had a premise. What year is this? Because you have to tell.

06:23This is 2022. In 2022, Jerome Powell came on TV and said, I would like the Fed funds rate to mirror

06:30three, six, 12-month PC inflation, personal consumption expenditures. That is like 2.5%.

06:37So whoever is in charge next might be going to pre-Christmas egg spike dog Powell and say,

06:49we just want it to mirror where the growth rate of inflation. Then it becomes like, what if tariffs do

06:56create inflation or how do they handle that? In any case, you have now a better backdrop of multiple

07:04things happening. Because every day that goes forward now, every month that goes by, Powell will

07:11become less and less relevant because he is finished. He is done. The end has come.

07:18Let's dig in a little bit on those seven rate cuts. So let's talk about what that means. As far as like

07:28you said, that would mean that the economy is underperforming. Even if the shadow Fed president

07:35starts talking about that, that has to be within some sort of context. So let's talk about whether

07:41that's actually going to happen.

07:42Well, here's the thing. It can mean two things. It can mean that the labor market is really getting

07:46weaker and breaking because the terminal rate is much lower than what everyone thought.

07:52Now, if that happens, remember the labor market still rules everything. If jobless claim starts

07:58breaking up higher, it doesn't matter who the Fed president is. Money will go into bond markets.

08:04Breaking is different than what we have seen in the last, I would say 18 months. The last 18 months,

08:10the labor market is getting softer. Even Jerome Powell came on TV and said, guys, if you're looking for a job

08:16tough, I don't care. I just don't care. But in this context, if the labor market's breaking, then

08:25the neutral discussion where the Fed funds rate is where people were talking about, this is why I

08:32almost hate the neutral discussion. But in this context, we're not even talking about how to

08:37stimulate the economy. So the backdrop of labor data getting softer and weaker,

08:45where Jerome Powell would say, we need more confidence. We'll play catch up. We're at a good

08:52spot. It's like, no, we want to get ahead of it. This is where the shadow fed president actually

08:57makes a difference. He's going to oust Powell's mindset and say, we don't want to wait. We want to

09:03get ahead. Similar to what Powell did kind of in 2018, where they started cutting rates

09:10back then. Also, another factor is that if the labor data really starts to break, then we can have a

09:21whole new discussion of what does a common policy mean? What are they going to do? Is the balance

09:27sheets, they're no longer going to reduce the balance sheets. They're going to make sure to get

09:32rates low enough to what is the one sector of the economy that is lagging behind everyone? Housing.

09:39And could you imagine a Federal Reserve chairman that says, we would like the housing market to grow

09:47again? That would be amazing. We haven't had that. Powell is toast. Do you realize the country,

09:53we're like, finally, my Lord, come on. The doomers will hate this. Oh my God, you could already see it.

09:59They're so stressed that, oh my God, if rates fall and what's going to happen and people are

10:04going to buy homes and have sex and then have kids and then we're just going to complain and

10:08be total losers until we're dead. But again, when you start this process, these are things that are

10:15in play now that weren't with Powell because Powell was always going to be, we're going to wait,

10:19we're going to wait, we're going to wait, we're going to wait to see catch up, right? We'll play

10:23catch up if the labor data, that's what he did last year. Now he's admitted it. We waited a little

10:29bit too long to cut and we had to cut a little bit more. So instead of playing catch up, try to

10:35get ahead. So, so that's, this is one of the reasons why Trump is doing this. I also think

10:40he just wants lower fed funds rates. So the interest payments of the budget goes lower and

10:44then he could talk about that. That's again, not something the Federal Reserve is, is that's not

10:49their, you know, any of their mandates, but in this context, Sarah, it's just going to get a lot.

10:57We've always talked about this, but, but once you initiate the shadow fed protocol,

11:02I feel like, I feel like, you know, it's a movie, it's like a movie, right? You know,

11:07this is like mission impossible. The shadow fed president protocol, take Powell out and this reign

11:13of terror, whatever, you know? So this is where we're at. So for a lot of people who are confused,

11:19I get it. The shadow fed president sounds very sinister, but it's just getting a guy in front of TV

11:24who says, listen, this guy's done. You don't need to listen to him anymore. When I'm there,

11:29this is going to change. And he's hoping that bond traders, and I would already tell you this,

11:32a lot of terminal rates and future pricing of rate cuts is, is already getting lower. But I think the

11:39more interesting aspect is without Powell to be more cautious on weaker labor data, the new shadow

11:47fed president might get a little bit more aggressive. And then we have the whole, you know,

11:51the second half, what does, what, what happens with tariffs and anything in that regard. But

11:55I always harken back to, oh my God, pun intended. Cause Harkin actually, one of the fed presidents

12:00said this today, he said, well, we don't think we're that restrictive. And I always tell people

12:06if there was no tariffs, they would have kept on doing the same thing. They would have said,

12:10well, we're close to neutral policy. We don't feel we're that restrictive. They would have only done

12:15two cuts anyway. So a lot of people are saying, well, this is all tariff related. He would have,

12:19no, they would have, they would have stuck to the, you know, slow, slow wait until labor breaks

12:24then. Okay. And, uh, I just think this takes this whole, with the banking regulation changes

12:32and the shadow president, it makes the second half of 2025. Interesting. Of course the 10 year

12:38yield today, right now, I think 425, 426, uh, um, mortgage rates are below 480. You know,

12:46at the start of the year, people were talking about inflation, tax cuts, deportation, 8% mortgage

12:53rates, major inflation. We're sitting here sub 7%. Remember seven and a quarter was the peak call

12:58because the spreads are getting better. Now you got a little bit of a more interesting backdrop. So

13:03again, always focus on the labor data more than anything jobs Fridays next week, but at least there

13:09is now the chess game is on and we'll just take it every day from here. Okay. I'm going to ask you

13:16about the financial changes for the financial institutions. But before we get to that, let's

13:21dig in on mortgage rates. If you're out there and you are a mortgage loan officer and you are real

13:26estate, how hopeful should you be? It has been years of time of people feeling like, Hey, maybe rates

13:33are going to go down. If you're out there now and you hear seven rate cuts, if you hear, Oh,

13:38shadow fed president, labor is going to break. How hopeful should you be? And in what timeframe?

13:44You shouldn't be hopeful until the data gives you a reason to be hopeful because you and I've kind

13:50of had this talk for many, many years until the labor market breaks, getting that sub 6% mortgage rates

13:58are getting down to 6% just doesn't work with Fed policy here. This is why we took this stance

14:04late 2022 is that a lot of people just thought if the growth rate of inflation falls, mortgage rates

14:11would fall with it. That has not worked. It's 2025 because 65 to 75% of Fed policy runs the 10-year yield

14:20and we're still up here with Fed policy. So the labor data still runs everything. So don't get caught

14:28into the rookie mistake of assuming that something's going to happen without the data verifying it

14:34because, you know, we're getting to a better spot. We haven't broke above seven a quarter. There was a lot

14:41of people yapping off early in the year that said 8% mortgage rates, inflation and everything, you know,

14:48and that obviously didn't happen. But getting to this next stage, the only time it's ever actually occurred

14:55is when the market perceives the labor data is getting weaker, but every time they were just softening.

15:00It wasn't breaking. The labor market is breaking. Then the whole dynamics for the mortgage industry changes

15:05because then you have sustained lower rates and it works with every single economic cycle we've seen

15:12because you'd go from a modestly restrictive policy to, okay, let's get neutral. Okay, we got to get accommodative,

15:19right? We're still in the modestly restrictive phase. So don't go into any kind of thing until

15:25you, until you know where the labor data is breaking, things are going to stay down there or you get

15:30reversed again. Like we talked about last year, the hoarder line, I said, this is Sarah, we are pricing

15:37in so much weakness that if, if this doesn't happen, this is going to reverse and look what happened.

15:42So don't, don't go into the lower rate camp until you see the labor data breaking, but now you have

15:50a little bit of a better backdrop with the shadow fed president and also the, you know, regulations

15:56to allow banks to hold more treasuries to make it a more functioning marketplace. I thought Jerome Powell

16:03did say something very correct when they asked him, what do you feel about the 10 year yield or bond

16:07market? He said, it's, it's functioning fine. You know, they had that drama with the Godzilla

16:13terrorists, but outside of that, you know, I, I, it's gotten much better. Uh, and I think we're just

16:19setting up a better backdrop, but again, if the economic data outperforms, let's say inflation does

16:25pick up, but the economy stays strong. That's not beneficial really for mortgage rates to get lower

16:31than what people want. So we take it one day at a time, but just always remember paper, rock, scissors,

16:36labor over inflation. The pieces are getting more favorable regulations, the shadow fed pet fed, but

16:45until you actually see them cutting rates and pushing things lower, we're always going to be held, you

16:51know, until the labor data or economic data first. I think that's such a good note of caution because

16:57if I'm out there and I hear seven rate cuts and I know that's on the fed funds rate, that's not a mortgage

17:02rates. But you know, I mean, hope springs eternal and people are like, Oh yeah, but it's, it's, it's

17:07also one of these things where people see a wall street firm say seven rate. If I had a penny for

17:13every time I've saw seven to 10 rate cuts by a wall street firm, which is technically short the market.

17:19And they're really trying to get people, Hey, listen, they're going to cut rates because

17:22economy is breaking, you know, be skeptical. You know, um, again, again, what I try to teach is

17:30let the data be your guide. Okay. Who cares what Morgan Stanley's Dean Witter says, who cares what

17:35Merrill Lynch or bank of America or Goldman Sachs say, let the data be your guide to that softening

17:42labor market. Continuing claims are starting to pick up. That's basically telling you, but breaking

17:49is not there. So, um, I don't want people to, to make the same rookie mistake I've seen time and

17:55time again, they see seven rate cuts and they go, Oh, here it comes here. That's not how it works.

18:02Those rate cuts have to happen. And then that can change the environment. But, uh, don't,

18:08don't go into that because that has failed a lot of people in the mortgage and real estate industry

18:13a lot in the last two to three years. And then you start to lose credibility with your customers

18:18and your people. If you start saying stuff like that, that's why we don't do that. We do economics

18:23first. And then we'll say, cause if jobless claims were heading up and residential construction

18:28workers were losing their jobs, then it's a little bit different. But if we took a nickel for every

18:33single time a wall street firm, or somebody says seven rate cuts, five rate cuts, and it hasn't really

18:38worked. Right. And then all of a sudden you get looked at as, Oh, you're just, you know, pushing,

18:44you know, something, uh, uh, uh, that, that hasn't happened. Let the data be your guide.

18:49Mother economics, Sarah Wheeler. What is mother economics? What is she?

18:54No, she is not a serial killer. I'm not a serial killer and she wants to get caught.

19:00She always, that's why they leave crumbs for all of us. Be the detective, not the troll, right? That's

19:07how we do it. We teach this stuff. So you don't have to listen to Morgan Stanley Dean winner. You don't

19:12have to listen to Goldman Sachs. Let the data be your guide where we live in a time and century.

19:16What do I used to always say? Like 2000 years ago, a thousand years ago, it would take you so long

19:23to get news from one area of a country to another. You got to write it down. You got to put it on a

19:30guy on a horse. The horse has to go there. And sex, seven months later, they would go, Oh my God,

19:35the Spanish armada is coming here. Oh, they're already here. My bad. You have access to

19:42data. You have the chart daddy, 24 seven on Instagram, doing nothing but doing live videos

19:47all day long. Try to teach us. And once you start to learn this, if you want to learn for a lot of

19:53people in real estate and mortgage, they don't want to learn because they're salespeople, right?

19:56They're salespeople. They're getting people into loans and getting people to houses. But if you

19:59really want to become prolific, you learn it. I teach it, right? Teaching somebody how to fish

20:04is better than giving them a fish, right? So this is why we do it this way.

20:09Let me ask you some questions then really quick, because I want to get to the construction

20:13and the new home sales data and all that stuff. But real quick on the changes to the financial

20:18institutions, Basel III, can you just recap that really quick?

20:24To keep it as simple as possible, if financial institutions can hold more treasuries, that means

20:33they can buy more treasuries and the market is less volatile. What is really bad for mortgage people

20:38when rates go up crazy and stuff, you know, and pricing sucks and everybody, you get, you quote

20:45someone one thing one day and then it completely changes. You get a little bit more stability.

20:50And if there is more perceived weakness in the economy or easing a Fed policy, you get more buyers

20:56into the marketplace. Just keep it, forget everything else. Just keep it as simple as that.

21:02Uh, uh, and, and that's really the goal for Bissette was trying to do this from the start and it's

21:10starting the process on that. I appreciate that very quick roundup. Okay. I want to talk to you

21:15about, you wrote a, um, an article based on the new home sales and it was like housing, U S housing

21:21construction is dead at these mortgage rates. So that's a pretty big statement. Tell me why you

21:27think that we're, we're done. Cause we're haven't done anything for years. We're literally just

21:33sitting here with permits and starts at early COVID-19 recession levels. And it ebbs flow,

21:39it ebbs back and forth. You know, these, these new home sales and housing starts reports, they're,

21:44they're so wild month to month. They get revised, but, but this has probably been the most confusing

21:50sector for everyone because two months ago, the purchase application data for new homes hit a post COVID

21:55high. Two months ago, sales hit a multi-year high, but the builders are like, Oh, we're not issuing

22:02any more permits because there is when I wrote that article, I showed everyone the key chart in there

22:08for everyone to see. Why did we talk about the builders being in trouble in December of 2025? Because

22:14their confidence index was rising. People say, Hey Logan, you've always said, go with the confidence

22:19index. Yeah. But they, they assume rates are going to fall and that regulations are going to get

22:23easy. Rates were rising. They don't typically do that well in this, this type of environment. Well,

22:30what's happened is rates stayed elevated higher for longer tariffs and all, all that stuff. All of a

22:35sudden new home sales, they need growth to get through these supply. They have their supply has

22:42picked up their total homes completed, ready for sale are basically at levels. If you go back four or

22:49five decades, that's usually the peak in this environment, they don't issue permits or housing

22:55starts don't grow. So you're just finishing the product. And, and again, we have 117,000 homes that

23:03haven't even started yet. That's a, that's like basically a record high. We have 119,000 homes

23:09completed for sale. These are not backdrops for the builders to start. Hey, let's start building

23:14homes. However, mortgage rates get down to 6% both times new home sales grow builders. Confidence picks

23:22up outlook looks better. We're not talking about three, four or 5%. We're just talking about how could

23:29a country be held up by like 75 basis points on a mortgage rate? You know, this is, this is the

23:34frustrating thing. A country thrives when people have sex, they have kids, they buy cars, they move

23:40on, they buy homes. That's, that's how it's worked since the Peloponnesian war, but we're just hanging

23:46at this last level. And of course the builders have been able to sell homes when it's sub 6%, but their

23:54profit margins are starting to dwindle. So it becomes a problem. You have supply building up, you have profit

24:00margins falling. You don't know how much longer you could do the rate buy down, but this is not an

24:05environment to go, let's build a ton of homes. Remember how everyone was like, oh, we're going

24:10to have a construction boom. And what do I always say, Sarah? Nope. I grab their cheeks and I go,

24:15oh, you're such cute kids. You guys never run a business in your life about how to build. So,

24:23so yeah, we are, we're here. And of course rates have gotten better recently, but man, just 1% lower

24:34changes a lot of the dynamics. It isn't going to be spectacular. Home sales aren't going to be booming

24:39or anything, but it could get things going and we're held back. Remember when Neil Kashkari, I mean,

24:45we harped on this all the time, but when you think about it, when Neil Kashkari came on TV in February of

24:512023, he said, the housing market's coming back. Oh my God. How are we supposed to rebalance the

24:58economy with 6% mortgage rates and people buying homes? And he was, he's basically saying, if you,

25:06people start buying homes and have sex and have kids and buy stuff, how are we supposed to fix this?

25:12You know? So back then it was a lot different. The growth rate of inflation was a lot high.

25:16Now, you know, it gets, it gets, it gets to the point where you stay the hero long enough,

25:26you eventually become the villain. And who is the hero slash villain in this?

25:30I mean, it could be any of the federal reserve members, right? You know, uh, they all have a

25:35collective whole mindset. Now you have some of the civil war stuff happening, um, you know,

25:40between certain, uh, fed presidents. But, uh, I, again, if it was me and hopefully, thankfully I,

25:48I never have that kind of power. Cause one person should never have that kind of power.

25:52I would have stopped at 4% because I would have said, this is a global pandemic.

25:57What global pandemics are always are. If you study history, they're very inflationary. And then the

26:02disinflation happens and the disinflation has more to do with supply chains getting better

26:06than anything else. And we're sitting here with 37 trillion. Oh, by the way, does anybody remember

26:12the Moody's downgrade? Is everybody Moody's downgrade to us debt? And all by the media was

26:19like, you better watch out bond traders are going to get really mad. They're going to send the 10 year

26:23yield above 5%. Oh, people are just soft. No wonder you cry babies all the time. No wonder you watch

26:31doom porn YouTube sites. If you have this constant mindset, Oh, in any case, you just got, you know,

26:40I mean, our, our listeners know they're like, Oh no, here it goes. He's, he just got that.

26:45Oh, Sarah, wait till the day that you cannot do a podcast with me for some reason. And it's just

26:51me alone. And I get to go, I get to go off 24 seven without you. There's a reason that we do not

26:57do that. Okay. In any case, um, growth rate of inflation fell. We have $37 trillion in debt.

27:04Our debt got downgraded. We have trillions of dollars of cash sitting on the sidelines.

27:10You know, it's, it's funny people, people told me they're like, Logan, you don't understand

27:15treasuries. Uh, foreigners are dumping treasuries at record paces. I said, has anybody seen a chart of

27:21like treasury holdings for foreigners? And they go, no, I said, go look at it. And I sent these guys to

27:26go look at it. It's like pretty much at all time highs, you know, I mean, of course, you know,

27:30bigger economies, uh, own more treasuries, but here we are at four 25 and with fed policy,

27:38possibly getting easier. It looks right. It looks normal. This looks all normal. If you

27:44fundamentally believe that 65 to 75% of this whole dance, this lovely, lovely slow dance. So we've

27:52been doing since 1970. Wait, I was not born in 1971. You were, but I was negative four. So I

27:56couldn't do that slow dance that, but that slow dance is really fed policy. And then what happens

28:02with the economy, right? And, and nominal growth, inflation expectation, these things, these things

28:08are what matters. So it just, it gets interesting going out for the next six months. We'll, we'll see

28:14because now it's, it's the battle versus, okay, what if inflation starts to take off? Can the fed

28:19really, can even the shadow fed get easier in that environment? You know, the fed funds rate is up

28:25here. So they don't really have, if they inflation picks up a little bit, they don't really have to

28:29be too, too worried about that, but it gets into just a much different dynamic than what we had

28:34in the first part. It's a good thing. You're going to be on four times a week because we have so much

28:40to talk about at a time. See, I broke you down Wheeler. I said, what? So I said, no, you need me

28:44twice. You got to have me three times, four. And then no five though. I've told you, you cannot say

28:51five because there are, there is other news. I have to get in here at least once a week. So

28:55I've told you, you cannot ask. I will show you mercy in 2025 about the five days and, and your,

29:03and all your many fans. Okay. Yes. But eventually when it's all said and done, it'll become seven

29:08days a week, twice a day. Just remember, I say this to you now, because we talked about this when

29:13it was just one. Oh, where is this going to be two? Oh, don't worry. We'll get the three. It'll get

29:17four. Oh, well, okay. Eventually the chart daddy, Logan wins in the end because I am relentless and

29:24I will just basically, you know, uh, uh, do whatever it takes to get to that other side.

29:29It's so true. Well, thank you for being on, especially when things are happening so fast,

29:33Logan. Oh, one last thing. One last, one last thing. Okay. Purchase application data, 21 weeks

29:39straight of year over year growth, eight straight weeks, a double digit year over year growth.

29:44Nobody understands this data line. Even my smart wall street friends like, dude, I have no idea

29:49what the hell this is. What what's going on here. And I go, read the tracker, listen to the podcast.

29:54We've explained it a lot. Very low bar, a low bar comps rates actually are lower now, not higher.

30:00This year is first part of the year. And new listings data is growing 70 to 80% of sellers or buyers.

30:06Naturally those people have to fill out an application because the bar is very low. The percentages can grow

30:11up just like foreclosure data moving up or any other percentage. This is why we're always very careful

30:17of percentage data working from extremely low bars. In this case could be the lowest bar ever.

30:22And then, uh, the pending home sales data came out today. It was positive beat estimates. Just remember for the

30:27next five months, we have such low comps that if we have year over year growth for five straight months in a row,

30:34uh, uh, it's really because the bar was low. If the data starts really picking up for our tracker,

30:39which is one to three months ahead of everyone else, then we'll start talking about that a little

30:43more. But right now it looks like we're going to have growth just because demand has picked up a

30:47little bit higher from last year. That was really good. That was a lot of fast talking to get to those

30:52subjects. I appreciate it. Um, we will talk again soon. Thanks Hogan. Pleasure Wheeler.

30:57We'll see you next time.

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