On today’s episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami about the most recent homebuilder survey, purchase apps, Godzilla tariffs and more.
Related to this episode:
Why Trump needs lower rates: Homebuilder survey collapses | HousingWire
https://www.housingwire.com/articles/why-trump-needs-lower-rates-homebuilder-survey-collapses/
Enjoy the episode!
The HousingWire Daily podcast brings the full picture of the most compelling stories in the housing market reported across HousingWire. Each morning, listen to editor in chief Sarah Wheeler talk to leading industry voices and get a deeper look behind the scenes of the top mortgage and real estate stories. Hosted and produced by the HousingWire Content Studio.
Related to this episode:
Why Trump needs lower rates: Homebuilder survey collapses | HousingWire
https://www.housingwire.com/articles/why-trump-needs-lower-rates-homebuilder-survey-collapses/
Enjoy the episode!
The HousingWire Daily podcast brings the full picture of the most compelling stories in the housing market reported across HousingWire. Each morning, listen to editor in chief Sarah Wheeler talk to leading industry voices and get a deeper look behind the scenes of the top mortgage and real estate stories. Hosted and produced by the HousingWire Content Studio.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Welcome, everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Motoshami to talk about the
00:11home builder survey, purchase apps, Godzilla tariffs, and more. First, I want to thank
00:16our sponsor, Rocket Close, for making this episode possible. Logan, welcome back to the
00:21podcast.
00:23It is wonderful to be here. We've had so much fun at the KW event in Dallas.
00:28Oh my gosh. We had so much fun at the KW event. You presented, you got on stage with Gary Keller,
00:35did a great presentation. I got to get up there and answer some questions with Gary as well.
00:40And we met so many fans of this podcast.
00:43Yes, it's always good to meet the fans. And then they always tell me how putt-putt is the right
00:50way. So you've definitely killed me on that one.
00:52Okay. So I have to call out Daniel Dixon, who is the owner of the Dixon group that we met there.
01:00And he said he listens every single day. He works out at the gym and listens to us.
01:05Wanted to give a huge shout out to him because I really appreciated that.
01:09Yeah. And he even knew when my voice was gone that one time. So you know the fans are loyal when they
01:15know when your voice breaks out. He did. Yeah. But we met tons of them. It was great. Okay. Well,
01:21we have tons to talk about today. First up, Home Builder Survey collapses.
01:27Yes. And by the time this podcast comes out, housing starts and permits will come out. In fact,
01:31a little bit, a few hours from when this podcast comes out early in the morning, I'll be on CNBC
01:37with another Wall Street analyst and we'll talk about the builders today. Builder Survey,
01:43very key. Before Godzilla tariffs were even a thing, this was the wild card going into 2025. And
01:51for those who don't know, when I track economic cycles, I really wait. The builder survey,
01:56housing permits, it starts. And traditionally what happens in the last few cycles, of course,
02:01take COVID out of the equation. When residential construction workers tend to lose their jobs,
02:05then manufacturing lose their jobs. We go into a recession at that point. That's a labor trigger.
02:11The last jobs report, residential construction workers had a very, very small decline
02:18month to month. But the builder survey has fallen again. All four categories fell. Now,
02:26this survey was kind of taken before the de-escalation of Trump's war with China. And then
02:33what people are thinking about, we have more deals coming along, but in any case, rates are still
02:40elevated. The builders, the new home sales sector is at 2019 levels, right? It hasn't gone anywhere for
02:48years, but it has a higher bar to perform for the necessity to build more homes, right? They're not
02:55the march of dimes. So they've got to be able to finish these homes, sell them, make money and move on.
03:00This is why housing permits have been at kind of recession levels for some time now. But in this
03:06case, tariffs, higher rates, uncertainty, all these things put together brought the survey down. And
03:13we've also had a small decline month to month on the labor side. These are things that we keep an eye
03:18on because if they keep on progressing, it's not a benefit to the economic cycle as we've seen
03:25in many previous cycles before. So in your article on this, you outlined, you highlighted
03:32the National Association of Home Builders chief economist, Robert Dietz, his quote that said
03:40that, you know, the initial trade arrangements with the United Kingdom and China are welcome
03:45development, but still the overall actions on tariffs in recent weeks have had a negative impact
03:50on builders as 78% reported difficulties pricing their homes recently due to the uncertainty around
03:57material prices. So that's really the key there.
04:01You know, conservatives, Republicans used to say when government becomes too big and nobody
04:07knows what government policy is, it's hard to do business, right? And what we've always talked
04:13about the trade war, tap dance, is that what happened back in 2018-19 was a much, it was baby
04:22Godzilla, right? Sarah, do you know what baby Godzilla looks like?
04:27I only do because you put some, something from a movie on your social channel.
04:33Yeah. And we were talking about baby Godzilla. Yeah. So back then it wasn't that extreme of an issue,
04:40but Godzilla tariffs are like, yeah. Yeah. You know, so there's, there was a lot of uncertainty
04:46back then. And back then, President Trump had his corporate tax cuts. He had, inflation wasn't a
04:52problem back then. The growth rate of inflation was falling and still business investment went to zero
04:57in that backdrop here. We straight Godzilla tariffs and elevated rates. And we just came off of an
05:06inflation push. So much different environment. So you can understand that the builder's just
05:11not 100% sure of what's going on. However, 10-year yield rules all. Trump believes, and I believe he
05:20is right on this, if mortgage rates go down, the builders sell homes, right? Because it is true,
05:28you know, lumber prices were around 1,500 during COVID, but mortgage rates were at 3%. So
05:33pushed right through it, right? Demand was there. So when I did that CNBC interview about five,
05:38six weeks ago, talk about, you know, the cure for tariffs where lower mortgage rates are specifically
05:43talking about the home builders and Trump's premise of that, you know, if mortgage rates do go lower,
05:48builders can still sell homes. If they need to buy down even more to move the product,
05:53then you get permits going again. And then the U.S. could start building homes. And that's what a
05:57prominent, powerful country does. Buy homes, build homes, and push that forward. And the best way
06:04to get, to fight inflation is always supply. And we get what traditionally happens in economic
06:12expansions, housing permits tend to grow. So here we are, we've seen this, you know, we're only four
06:18points away, the builder's confidence indexed from the lows of COVID, right? Some of these consumer
06:25surveys are much worse, but the builders are like, oh, you know, so it's not good for production that
06:30this is happening, but lower rates, lower 10-year yield cures everything. And whenever the 10-year
06:36yield gets low, especially to 4% or below, the mortgage rates get towards 6%, shocking enough,
06:42the builder's confidence increases and new home sales tend to grow. So this is why I always weigh the
06:4910-year yield over everything out there because for housing, it's such a big driver of economic growth.
06:58That's the biggest difference, right, between now and that post-period where it's like,
07:02we have the higher home prices, but we still have elevated rates. So we're all working in that
07:08environment where it's like, it's normally you would have prices come down if you have rates go up,
07:13yeah? No. Prices do not. No. It's funny. I had just a conversation with someone. I was saying,
07:23all these people that are predicting home price crashes for the last 13 years, they were telling
07:27you home prices were going to crash because inventory was historically low and there was
07:33no distress sales. And if you look at the history of US economics going past post-World War II, we have
07:38over 80 years of data, no matter where mortgage rates were, home prices actually never fell in any
07:46meaningful way. The 1990s had, you know, 1990 had 0.7% and 1991, 0.2%. But the housing bubble crash
07:54years was unique because we had major distress foreclosures and bankruptcies four years before
08:01the Great Recession happened. So the, oddly enough, the foreclosure crisis happened before the recession,
08:06never a good thing. It's not what you ever want to see. You traditionally have late cycle lending and
08:12foreclosures. So higher rates in terms of the builders, the builders can reduce their prices and
08:19use their profit margins to pay down rates. But if we're talking about the existing home sales market,
08:25clearly what we have seen in 2023, 2024, and so far in 2025, higher rates or elevated rates have not
08:32caused national home prices. Well, in some parts of the US where inventory is more elevated,
08:39it's less affordable. You do see price declines, but on a national basis, there's not much history
08:46around that. So good point. So in a place like Florida or Texas, where we're seeing inventory really
08:53pick up compared to the rest of the nation, we do see price declines in those specific areas.
08:58In those areas, one of the things I've talked about going back a few years, if you can get
09:03inventory back to 2019 levels, 2019 levels was the five-decade low nationally. But back in 2018 and
09:1119, price growth was cooling down. Real home prices briefly went negative for a very time. But
09:17affordability was much better back then. Now affordability is much harder in those areas,
09:22especially the areas that need migration are susceptible to price declines. On a national
09:28basis, you're not quite there yet. And this is why we always found it odd that home people were
09:33talking about 20, 30, 40% home price crashes. Without anybody with basic English reading skills
09:41could see that over 80 years, there's not much data to support something like that. There's something
09:46to support ebbs and flows in regionals and real home prices falling on maybe on a national basis,
09:52but on a nominal basis, it's actually really rare. But the builders on the other side of this
09:57equation, their new home sales level is at 2019 levels. The existing home sales is at still working
10:05from all-time lows. And the irony here is purchase application data, Sarah. That's it.
10:12The euro cycle. Yeah, the seasonal peak is now here for me, at least for my work and for those
10:20who don't know what I'm talking about. Second week of January to the first week of May. In a normal
10:25purchase application data cycle, that's the heat months. That's where volumes tend to rise.
10:31After May, total volumes tend to fall, right? That's that seasonal curve where we see in housing.
10:36The last two weeks, oh my God, I can't believe I'm saying this even. The seasonal peak weeks have
10:44had double-digit year-over-year growth for purchase application data, which looks out 30 to 90 days.
10:50Always remember, purchase application data is a outward forward-looking data line curve.
10:55It doesn't mean it's going to happen in the previous month reports or even the current.
11:00It could come in even two to three months out. But in this case, existing home sales market is
11:06working from such a low bar that it doesn't take much to move the needle. Where the builders,
11:10the builders do have some growth, but they're at such elevated levels and they sell homes like a
11:16commodity. They don't have a seller that needs to sell the new home and then move somewhere else.
11:22They basically build it, try to manage the cost, and make as much money as possible because they are
11:28not the March of Dimes, it's more difficult, right? One of the things I've liked to show recently is
11:34the total active completed units. Not a lot of homes, right? It's about 120,000, roughly around
11:40there. Our new listings data in two weeks surpasses that entire data line for the last 14 years,
11:47right? But for the builders, if you go back to the 1960s, take 2008 out of the equation,
11:53usually around 120,000. That's kind of it. They don't tend to want to build more homes
12:00during that timeframe. And usually that's the end of the cycle and permits fall and housing starts
12:08fall. We've already had a decline in housing starts and permits, and we're just working still
12:12off of a backlog that the builders have. Oddly enough, even today, the home builders still have
12:19near the highest levels of homes that haven't even started yet construction. So they're keeping the
12:26labor in there for that. And then it's just the ebbs and flows with the tenure yield and
12:31mortgage rates. You know, we started doing this podcast and you would talk about how the builders
12:37are not the March of Dimes, but also you said something that has always stuck with me, which is
12:40like every time they complete a home and it gets sold, that home is now their competition.
12:45And so they really played the long game of like, you know, cause we're at the time we were talking
12:51about, why can't they just build more homes? Why can't they just help us out? And it's like,
12:54why would they do that? Like as soon as it sells, that is now a competition to everything else they're
12:59going to make. It's one of the more challenging things to explain to people over the last 10 years,
13:07but think of the builders in a way that kind of how OPEC or, or the oil companies, like the oil
13:15companies are like, Oh my God, oil prices are, you know, here we're not, we're not build drill,
13:20baby drill. You can see all these, uh, uh, uh, we're reducing CapEx, you know, we're going to buy
13:26back shares, you know, the people are here to, if you've never run a business, you know, a lot of
13:32people go, well, the builder should just build homes. And have you ever run a business in your
13:36life? Have you ever had to make payroll? Have you ever had to deal with regulate? No, you haven't.
13:40That's not how it works. So the supply and demand equilibrium for the builders is so much different
13:45than the existing home sales market, but the existing home sales market, it's massive,
13:49massive, massive, massive. So let's, let's do the numbers here. Uh, let's take the NAR data.
13:56The NAR's total active inventory is 1.33 million, right? The builders completed units as a, as 120,000,
14:03right? The builders are always been able to deal with the existing home sales market as a competitor,
14:09but imagine in the last decade, last decade, um, my, my general premise, it was going to be the
14:15weakest housing recovery ever. The builders did not have an advantage because they were dealing
14:21with a massive inventory that was cheaper. The existing home sales market and mortgage rates
14:25were everywhere was the same, right? Everybody was playing from the same playing field during COVID.
14:30It was the exact opposite. Inventory broke to all time lows. And when rates spiked up, the builders
14:35like, uh, wow, there's not that much inventory. Hey guys, come here. Our profit margins are still
14:41very good. Back then it wasn't their profit margins has collapsed. It was negative double digits here.
14:46They're still double digits higher. So they can, they have levers to pull and things to move. Um,
14:51if they didn't write, if they didn't pay down rates, you know, we'd probably even have less
14:55construction, uh, and probably have lost more jobs, but, uh, they've been able to manage the cycle.
15:02Well, uh, considering all the factors out here, uh, I think 7% of all what they import into a new home
15:08on a national basis comes, uh, uh, uh, uh, from out of the U S so it isn't like the biggest hit to
15:15them on tariffs, but still pricing, right. In this environment, in this chaotic time, pricing is,
15:21is, is a little bit more tricky. And that's kind of what the builder survey told us.
15:25Do you know, out of the five homes that I've bought as an adult, four of them were new builds.
15:30You can tell I live in Texas because the builders were always able to offer you incentive, buy it
15:37down, give you more for your money. Um, so that's interesting. Yeah. It, it, advantage,
15:43disadvantage. The builders did not have the advantage in the last decade, um, because housing was more
15:50affordable back then rates were low, but the total active, uh, inventory for, you know, let me give
15:55you guys an example. In, uh, 2014, the NARs, uh, inventory data was near 2.4 million, right?
16:02Currently it's 1.33, right? And, and the builders were working from a very low level of sales. So a
16:07lot of people just thought they're just going to be building like crazy. Whenever rates went up,
16:11you know, demand got hit and it just, it just wasn't that that wasn't the right cycle to be like
16:16outright bullish on the builders in terms of just putting their head down and building. So
16:20it was the weakest new home sales cycle ever recorded in history. It was the weakest housing
16:24start cycle ever recorded history looks perfectly normal to me. It was the whole premise. It takes
16:28the years, 2020 to 2024 to build up that, uh, uh, demographic patch or housing, but here now they're
16:34just trying to manage things. And of course, residential construction workers, right? We are
16:38just keeping an eye on that. So I'm sitting here looking at the builder survey that is four points
16:43away from the lows that we saw in COVID. I have 7% mortgage rates. And I also have a month to
16:48month decline in the labor pool for residential construction workers. My eyes are keeping
16:52out on this, uh, because, you know, you know, my sixth recession red flag model completely,
16:59uh, uh, blew up in, uh, 2006 and, uh, you know, the overinvestment cycle was housing. So it was very
17:05early and evident. The recession came in 2008 here boys. It, I, so many people are so confused.
17:12They, why aren't the builders firing people, but they made their adjustment for single family
17:18homes in 2022. And if you look at new home sales, new home sales has not gone under 2022 levels yet.
17:25If it did, it would be a different conversation today. So it's just this pull and tug. And,
17:30and it's, I think you, you and I had this conversation a few years back. You probably don't
17:35remember. I said like the extreme bulls and the extreme bears might be, you know, very confused
17:41about this cycle with housing because of all, there's so much unique variables now that wasn't
17:47the case in previous decades. But, uh, that's one way to look at the builder is a simple way.
17:52New home sales haven't breached under 2022 levels. So the builders still have that backlog of homes
17:57that they're working on. So they're just waiting. Oh, that 10 year yields lower. Let's go. Let's get
18:01that going. And that's kind of how they operate. Let's talk about what the builder survey tells you
18:07from like, if it waves any recessionary flags for you, what do you think? Well, to me, it's if the
18:14total index is falling, right. And new home sales is falling with it in a, in a trend fashion.
18:22And we're starting to see layoffs. That's, that's recessionary. What's happened, uh, in the last few
18:30years is everybody's running kind of old models without making adjustment to it. The new home sales
18:36sector stopped going down. When was this Sarah? November, 2022, like the whole structural housing
18:45dynamics all changed after November, 2022. So we haven't gone anywhere. We've, when rates fall,
18:51new home sales go up. When rates, uh, uh, uh, arise, new home sales go down and we're just doing this
18:57back and forth. But if new home sales were breaking through 2022 levels and then, uh, the builder survey
19:05even gets worse. And now residential construction workers, remodeling workers, specialty trade with
19:10all these things, that is a traditional late cycle recessionary data line. Uh, so we're keeping our
19:17eyes on that. This is one of the things I I've tried to teach. We're sitting here in 2025 May
19:23and every recession call from 2010 has been wrong outside of COVID, right? COVID wasn't a,
19:30because it was a global pandemic, wasn't economic. And the one data line that never actually broke
19:35post 2010 really is that the builders weren't laying people off. They were working from very
19:41low base, hiring people and doing, but still even today, even in 2025, we don't have that negative
19:46curve yet, but that's what we're looking for. If it does happen, if rates hypothetical, let's say
19:50mortgage rates go to seven and a half, 7.75 builders confidence even gets worth new home sales. Yes.
19:56That, that is a late cycle recessionary. So we're keeping an eye on this. So you can understand why
20:01president Trump's wants lower mortgage rates, right? You know, we're not talking about needing three
20:07or four or 5%, just getting down to 6% can get the country moving again, building homes again,
20:17people having sex, having kids, things that the most powerful economy in the U S can do.
20:22We're like 1% away from getting that curve going again. So that's the more frustrating part.
20:29If, if we needed three, four or 5% rates to do this, then it's much different, but the builders
20:35have been able to pay down rates and they've lived in a sub 6% mortgage world for some time. Now it
20:40just gets more costly as rates go up and supply goes up or margin pressure. So the business of doing
20:46home building has gotten more complicated in 2025. Okay. So you already talked about permits and
20:53starts. Of course, we're doing this and not knowing what those are. Any, any comment, final comments on
20:58those? Well, you know, rates did fall a little bit, you know, after the Godzilla tariffs, we went all
21:06the way to seven, 10%. Then we, we, we fell down about 30, 35 basis points. So we'll, we'll, we'll see
21:12how the next new home sales report looks like. Uh, but it's, it's never a good thing when builder
21:19surveys are all falling down together for a few months, uh, in terms of trying to see if you're
21:25going to get a rebound in purpose. And guys, remember the housing starts data is so volatile month to
21:31month, right? You got to take an average trend, uh, three to six months average, because you can get a
21:36really big positive reports or negative reports and they revise them. You want to look at the trend.
21:40And as long as the builder survey looking out six months, that's the key. If that thing is still
21:45going lower, it's really hard to get any kind of traction, especially with rates elevated.
21:51So, you know, I've talked about, um, soft data, hard data, um, coming in this period where it's a
21:57little bit tricky because we had, we had data for the first four months. That was one thing.
22:01Then we had Godzilla tariffs, but then, uh, a change to the Godzilla tariffs, but there was a couple
22:06weeks there where they were in force. So what does that do to the data now for say the next six
22:11weeks? I think during the first four months of the year, the hard data held up, uh, uh, uh, well,
22:20the soft data looked really terrible. I mean, the confidence data is in all these things, the,
22:25the manufacturing data is. So when you're working from soft survey data, and then all of a sudden
22:31you get, Oh, Hey, we're not going to do Godzilla tariffs all the way around. Then you could get a
22:37rebound in that, but we're going to see if what happens, uh, um, if there's any damage to any of
22:43the, uh, hard data lines going out the next few months until supply chains start to get back up,
22:48uh, retail sales came in. Okay. On, on a year of year basis, the growth was fine on a month to month
22:53basis. Uh, it's slightly beat estimates, uh, estimates were, were just for flat. Uh, that report
23:00came out today. Uh, the, uh, PPI inflation came out much weaker. The irony is that when the stock
23:06market went down, portfolio management fees were down that in fact, that impacted the PPI inflation
23:12data. And it was in a sense, much weaker because of that. Um, but right now we, we keep an eye on
23:18where rates and starts and surveys are going, because that to me was, that was the wild card
23:23going into 2025. And then Godzilla tariffs came in. So you can understand why president Trump wants
23:28lower rates. You get just down to 6%. All these concerns just go away and you have, you know,
23:35restrictive policy still as the fed would like it, but we're just not quite there yet on a positive
23:40side though. The mortgage spreads are acting much better, uh, now that the drama is gone. So on the
23:46days where the 10 year yield goes up, uh, we're not getting impacted too bad. Uh, uh, where if the
23:52spreads were, uh, as bad as it were recently, you're adding another 20 to 25 basis points on the
23:58mortgage rate side, but now the spreads are compressing, which is in a sense the best, best
24:03thing you can hope for when rates go. And just to remember the 10 year yield right now, uh, two job
24:08reports ago, I talked about, you know, if there is no Godzilla tariffs, the 10 year yield should be
24:12about 435, 4.35 to 470 is the upper range forecast for 2025, 6.75 to seven and a quarter is the upper
24:21range forecast. If the economy is improving, it's not abnormal to be at this level. If the economy is
24:28detracting and data is getting weaker, then yeah, we can head down to 4%, get below that. That's what
24:33we've seen in the previous years. So kind of work off that. I know some people were surprised that the
24:3710 year yield has picked up a little bit. I think this morning it's down eight, nine basis points
24:41were about 4.46, but, uh, uh, remember economic data runs the show and also be careful who you
24:47listen to like out there. There's, it is amazing to me that people profess themselves to be stock
24:54traders and bond traders, and they are the softest marshmallows ever. Like 10 year yield goes up and
24:59Oh my God, what's happening. And it's like for 14 years, you've had to watch these guys just like
25:07freak out whenever bond yields go up. It's traditionally when yields go up in the U S
25:12economic data is getting better. It's when yields go down, right. Is when you need fed rate cuts,
25:18that's when things get bad. But if bond yields going up, you know, it's because Godzilla tariffs are
25:23in theory going to be, uh, downgraded to baby Godzilla. Uh, and we're still going to have very
25:31high percentage of tariffs, right? I think Walmart had a very good thing. Uh, their CFO talked about this
25:36today. Hey, listen, in about a month, we're going to hear it. We're going to steal. We can't absorb
25:40the prices and neither can our suppliers. So prices are going up. This is something that we want to
25:45think about going out for the next few months. How does the retailer, how does the consumer feel
25:50in this point? Because the growth rate of inflation had been falling, uh, for some time. So does the
25:55sticker shock impact the retail sales going out, uh, in the future? I thought that was a really
26:01interesting interview because he said, yes, he was like, we're so happy that they're not 145. He
26:07said, but they're still elevated. And so he's like, you know, we wish that they were lower, like,
26:12you know, being very careful there because he doesn't want to, uh, you know, piss off the Trump
26:15administration, but he was like, we're really happy that we've come back from 145% tariff on China.
26:22He said, but it's still elevated. And so you do wonder like, you know, I, yeah, you still wonder what
26:27that's going to be. Uh, trade wars aren't easy. Uh, and again, uh, it is interesting if we like
26:32take a step back and what the hell just happened. You know, we, we went from tariff on to tariff on,
26:38like we've talked about, that was the game plan. But the problem is when you do that early on,
26:42you know, you eventually have to do something. So they did something and they went Godzilla tariffs
26:47and all hell just broke loose in the marketplace. Um, oddly enough in 2018, um, the stock market was
26:56down almost 20% Christmas. You didn't know me back then. I did a Facebook live. I put a Santa
27:00Claus hat on and I was making fun of the bears because everybody say we're going into recessions
27:04and no, we're not. You know, uh, uh, the tariffs are too small. We're a consumption-based economy.
27:09Consumer balance sheets are fine. We're going to do this. Right. Uh, but people saw the stock market
27:13declining. Well, what happened back then is that Trump started to make deals in 2019 and the second
27:20half of 2019, the economic data started to get better. So I, I believe there's some muscle memory
27:26there that, okay, well, if we make some deals and things, you know, we could get better economic
27:31data and, uh, us economic data was better in the January and February of 2020. Not a lot of people
27:38remember this. I do because I wrote every single report out there and showcase that PMI data was up.
27:44Retail sales without housing data was up. Everything was up. We have never had a recession post-World
27:48War II when all those data lines are positive and then COVID hit us. And then the rest was history.
27:53But, uh, um, it is, it is, it is interesting how fast that whole, we, we just lived through that. We
28:01lived through that really chaotic, uh, time and how the markets responded to it where the 10-year
28:07yield went shooting down. I was like, well, we really don't, we don't belong here, but you know,
28:11you can markets and then the reversal and then the, the white house freaked out because the bottom
28:16see the bottom markets, the 10-year yield is almost got to a level to where we saw back then,
28:21but people were talking about recessions and when recessions happen and bond yields go up,
28:27that's not a good thing that I think that did it for them. If I could, if I could, if I could hone in
28:33why, uh, uh, there was a change in policy is that the 10-year yield shooting up when people were talking
28:39about recession, it was never a good thing. And the set knows this, right? Uh, uh, they got,
28:44they had to calm the markets down and that's where we are right now, where we go. We don't know yet,
28:50but there's a much different feeling, a better feeling in the marketplace, in the bottom market
28:54and everything and things are calmed down. People are making fun of a set because the 10-year yield
28:58got up to like 4.54, but I say, listen, he would rather have the 10-year yield here and us having the
29:05stock market rebound and the economy talking about expansion rather than a recession, you know,
29:10and, and having to deal with tariff questions. So it's been a crazy year so far. It's not even
29:164th of July yet. Uh, uh, but, uh, we take it one day at a time and try to, uh, do the implications
29:22for the housing market. Well, we're very happy to have you here to guide us through. Logan,
29:27thank you again. Pleasure.