Charlie Rowley has warned of an "almighty fall" for the Labour Party as new polling suggests Reform UK could become Britain's largest political party.The comprehensive poll, based on 11,500 respondents, projects Reform UK would win 271 seats if an election were held today, while Labour would plummet to just 178 seats - less than half their current 411.The Conservatives would fall to fourth place with just 46 MPs, behind the Liberal Democrats, who would gain nine seats for a total of 81.Speaking about the new polling, political commentator Rowley said: "It would be an extraordinary and almighty fall for the Labour Party to lose that many seats, and an almighty win for Reform to gain as many. They’ve only got five in the Commons at the minute, so to go up to 271.4READ THE FULL STORY HERE
00:00I tell you what, he wasn't very impressed or very concerned, at least, with this YouGov poll.
00:06It's an MRP poll. Now, they're quite new, aren't they, where they focus in on constituencies.
00:12They tend to be much more accurate as a result.
00:16It gives reform 271 seats, not enough for an outright majority, but the largest party in the Hong parliament, 100 seats basically ahead of the Labour Party.
00:27Certainly, Tories down and forth behind the Lib Dems. It would be all change.
00:33It would. And it would be extraordinary because it would be an almighty fall for the Labour Party to lose that many seats.
00:40And it would be an almighty win for reform to gain as many. They've only got five in the Commons at the minute.
00:46So to go up to whatever it was, 241 or...
00:50271.
00:51271, forgive me.
00:52Now, the problem that this poll produces is not only is that great news for reform, but just to be short of that majority, that magic 325 figure.
01:04Now, Theresa May in 2017 had 317 MPs. That wasn't a majority.
01:09She had to do a deal with the DUP in order just to shore up support there during the Brexit years.
01:16What could happen, and this is what a lot of people have been talking about previously, is that even though the Tories are in force, according to this poll,
01:24even if reform did a deal with the Tories, that still wouldn't be enough to get over that magic 325 threshold of forming a majority.
01:32However, they could be supportive. So it is a difficult situation because if reform did win that many seats and it was a hung parliament, then this is brand new waters.
01:41This is a brand new territory. We don't know how reform would manage in a minority government.
01:47But history comes into play here. In 1924, 1925, you know, over 100 years ago, or was it 29, when Labour formed a government for the first time,
01:58I think that was a minority government, and then they had to have another general election not too long, and they won a majority, and that was the collapse of the Liberals.
02:04So are we seeing this huge surge in reform and a collapse of the Tories, but they might still need to rely on them?
02:10I mean, it'll be fascinating just to see on the back of this poll in the months and weeks to come, just how then Labour treat reform, how the Tories treat reform,
02:19because they're all trying to create water and division between all of them to maximise their appeal.
02:24But at some stage, someone's going to have to look at the numbers and think, look, you know, nobody wants to see necessarily if the strategy is we must get this terrible Labour government out,
02:33how do we do that? Because all that might happen is when push comes to shove, the vote is split in certain constituencies between maybe the reform and the Conservatives.
02:43And that lets Labour through with more seats than what this poll is predicting.
02:47So it's very volatile politics at the minute, very unpredictable, but a fascinating poll nonetheless, which again puts reform ahead.
