CeasefireWill the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold?

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00:00I want to start by asking about where things stand right now.

00:03Obviously, this ceasefire is still quite fresh.

00:08And I just wondered whether it's normal, whether it's to be expected,

00:12that there would be some violations within the first couple of hours of a truce being announced.

00:18And does that usually happen as two warring parties down their weapons?

00:23Well, in this case, in the dying embers of conflict,

00:26when there's often a slip between the cup and the lip.

00:30And from an Iranian perspective, because a lot of their command and control

00:35and commanders have been hit in the ensuing 12 days,

00:38that slip between the cup and the lip may have meant that the communications

00:42and the down the chain of command just didn't work as expected.

00:47That's why often you get a time frame which is not the one you want.

00:51It's also Israeli doctrine, of course, to retaliate a disproportionate retaliation

00:57in accordance with a doctrine, should that occur.

01:00And it seems that was the thing that was ratcheted back by President Trump.

01:05So I do think this ceasefire will hold.

01:09I do think that's the end of this conflict.

01:12But the key thing is the object of war is a better peace,

01:16but from whose perspective and whose rules will apply in the future.

01:19So is this just a round and that in the future, in terms of future time frames,

01:25there'll be another round because this is really just conflict termination.

01:29It is not conflict resolution.