00:00I received a situation update from Treasury yesterday and the key point they make is an obvious one which is any spike in global oil prices is expected to have a significant impact here at home.
00:14The rule of thumb that they apply is that a $10 sustained increase in the price of a barrel of oil translates to 10 cents more at the pump for a Kiwi petrol user.
00:26What we saw last week was that oil prices went up about $10 but of course you're still seeing fluctuation today and ultimately the question is will there be a disruption to oil supply chains and therefore what impact will that have and there's obviously a lot of information to play on that score yet.
00:45I'm conscious of that because I'm really conscious of the cost of living for New Zealanders and a major price pressure for Kiwi households is the price of petrol.
00:54So I know that they will be watching developments in the Middle East with that in mind as will I be.
00:59I'm always conscious too that the oil price feeds through into generalised inflation.
01:04We've as a country worked really hard to get inflation under control so any issues like this are challenging.
01:10But the good news is that New Zealand has its inflation under control and the Reserve Bank has all of the levers it needs to keep it under control.
01:16Qatar has been pulled into this overnight as well, is that changing the situation too when it comes to oil prices etc?
01:23Well ultimately there are two questions which is one, will the supply chain be disrupted, will the strata for Mars be disrupted, will the ability for oil to get from the Middle East to the rest of the world be disrupted and there's still facts to play out on that.
01:38And then the second issue is whether or not there are responses from oil producing nations in terms of the way that they release supply of oil.
01:46And again there's still facts to be released on that.
01:49Would you be considering any sort of subsidies for New Zealand if oil prices do rise substantially?
01:54No.
01:55Why is that?
01:56Because the evidence internationally is that they're very difficult to sustain.
02:00I watched the pain that the last government went through when it attempted something like that.
02:06What we actually need to do is ensure that across the board we're doing everything we can to keep inflation low.
02:13Well I think we've made our values positions very clear which are that we do want to see a return to diplomacy and de-escalation.
02:21That we've always as a country stood against the nuclearisation of Iran.
02:26We don't want Iran having a nuke.
02:28And that we will continue to participate in multilateral fora to advance those objectives.
02:34The United States strikes on Iran are contrary to international law.
02:38They haven't made the case that they were under imminent threat.
02:41I think it's a principled position that New Zealand could take and should take.
02:46I want to also be very clear on this.
02:48The Labour Party has a long-standing opposition to nuclear weapons anywhere in the world.
02:53That hasn't changed.
02:55But if anybody thinks that we're going to bomb our way to a nuclear-free world, they need to think again.
02:59What do you make of the fact that Christopher Luxon is now the only leader, it seems,
03:04who is actually going to be there for the IP4 at NATO?
03:08Does that make it a little bit of a wasted trip or still worthwhile being there?
03:12Look, I'm not privy to all of the briefings that he would get on what he might get out of a visit to NATO.
03:18I know my own attendance at NATO in 2023 was at least based in part on the value of meeting with those other leaders who are now not attending.
03:28What about, I guess, meetings with other NATO leaders, though, who presumably will probably be quite interested in his talks with Xi Jinping last week as well?
03:37Look, I'm not going to criticise Christopher Luxon for being internationally engaged.
03:41I think it's important that the New Zealand government is internationally engaged.
03:44It's a very volatile time for the world.
03:46And I think our Prime Minister being out and about on the world stage is useful.
03:50I think it would be even more useful if all three ministers in the current government, by that I mean Christopher Luxon, Winston Peters and David Seymour are all saying the same thing.
03:58That would be useful as well.
04:00I think we should continue to exert an independent foreign policy.
04:03That means that we're going to disagree with partners like the United States from time to time.
04:08New Zealand took a very principled position on Iraq, and our relationship with the US continued to strengthen during that time.
04:14You know, I think what Colin Powell described us as a very, very, very good friend, and that was even though we were opposed to the war in Iraq.
04:22It's a pretty nerve-wracking time for the world.
04:24I think any time nuclear weapons are mentioned in any context in these kind of global conflicts, a bit of a shiver goes down the spine because, as I said, we're never going to bomb our way out of the nuclear arms race.
04:39And any suggestion that we could do is catastrophic for the world.
04:45So I hope that people will get back around the table there.
04:48There are so many things going on in the world at the moment.
04:50Of course, it's not just the situation in Iran.
04:52It's the situation in Gaza.
04:53It's the situation in Ukraine.
04:55There's a lot going on.
04:56It's incredibly challenging out there around the world.
04:59I've just come back from Europe.
05:00It would be fair to say that tension is high on that side of the world at the moment, quite understandably so.
05:15There are many people who want strong such struggles with us who areSmithelixir Evan.
