The international analyst Ermelinda Malcotte affirms the United States enters direct war to save Israel from its precarious military situation, revealing three hidden objectives: to destroy Iran's civilian nuclear program, eliminate its ballistic capability and force regime change as a step toward its agenda against China. Warns that US bases in the Middle East are now legitimate targets for Iran and regional resistance, while Russia/China await a formal request for help from Tehran.
00:00Welcome now, Emerlinda Marcotte, International Analyst. Welcome, Emerlinda, to this special day interview.
00:10What is the role of the United States in this conflict and why has it gone from so-called diplomacy to frontal war in a matter of days?
00:20Well, the role of the United States is and has always been to support Israel in the attacks against Iran.
00:28The United States has been supporting Iran with logistics, with some kind of diplomatic actions and so on.
00:36And so they are entering now directly into the war for a very simple reason,
00:42is that Israel has not the stockpiles of missiles to prolong the war very long.
00:49So they are going into the war to help Israel, which is militarily in a very precarious position.
00:57The consequences of it will be very, very big because if United States begins to be a direct belligerent,
01:08so they can be attacked in the region by axis of resistance for one part, but also, of course, by Iran.
01:15So the U.S. basis in Arabic countries and in Central Asia can be targeted by Iran.
01:24And maybe there will be some consequences at the international community, but for the moment I don't think so.
01:32This is something that would happen maybe on the middle or long term.
01:38What are the real interests behind this U.S. direct involvement in a war that the U.S. people do not want?
01:45And how do you think these actions will affect the public opinion about the Trump administration?
01:51Well, there are three wars objectives, and I think that they are shared by Israel and by the United States.
01:58The first one, which is the little one, I would say, is ending with the civil nuclear program of Iran.
02:05The second one, which is way more important, is ending with the ballistic program of Iran,
02:10which means to make Iran teethless, I would say, with no military capacity.
02:17And the third and the biggest one is what they call regime change in Iran.
02:21And they want to end with the balkanization of Iran, ending with Iran as a country and as a nation.
02:27And they want that because they have a bigger agenda in Asia.
02:31They want to disturb completely the Asian continent, and Iran is a big entry point.
02:38They are against China. This is China. This is the main objective of the United States,
02:45is going against China, but they cannot go directly against China.
02:49So they are doing little steps, I would say, towards their big objective.
02:58What do you think the consequences of this attack will be for the escalation of tensions in the Middle East?
03:03And what legal consequences this attack could bring to Donald Trump and his administration?
03:10Well, for the escalation in the Middle East, we have to see, because the United States has lots of allies in the Middle East,
03:19because some countries don't exist without the United States' support.
03:24For example, if you take Jordan, there would be a revolution against the king of Jordan if he wasn't supported by the United States.
03:33Emirates also are in that kind of situation. Arabia Saudis, it's a bit different, but they are still a big support for the United States.
03:43But still, they have some kind of diplomacy and dialogue with Iran. And of course, there is axis of resistance,
03:49which has been highly damaged by the Israeli attacks since the 7th of October, basically.
03:56But still, the Yemeni side of the axis of resistance is really active. And in Iraq, we also can see resistance,
04:08and they will probably help Iran for their attacks against the military bases they have in Iraq.
04:14So this is for the regional aspect. And for the United States and the situation in the United States, of course, you said lots of people are against the war.
04:26But there are also all the propaganda machine that is on the rail and working very hard.
04:33We have seen some very mediatic people like Tucker Carlson being against the war and really making excellent videos.
04:45So I think that the propaganda machine will not work as well as they want it to be working.
04:52But there are still a little time before midterms. So I don't know. Donald Trump has a little bit of time to enter the midterms.
05:05At the time, we don't know the military result of the attack. And I also see Ocasio speaking about the impeachment of Trump.
05:15But really, for the moment, I don't think it's on the agenda.
05:20So as you mentioned, the impeachment of Trump. So you don't think that it's possible to have Trump impeached after this attack without the Congress approval?
05:29So it is not possible to have him impeached?
05:32Well, I'd like to, but they have been trying to impeach him to make trials against him, and it has never worked.
05:43I mean, you can like Trump or not like him. You have to recognize that he has been really attacked by the Democrats.
05:52And he always resisted the attacks. So I'm not sure that it will be.
05:58But of course, he did it without the approval of the Congress, but he's not the first president to do things without the approval of the Congress.
06:07Jimmy Carter was an expert of it. And so it's a practice. It's something that it's not new for the United States.
06:15So we have to see the next day the impeachment procedure, but I'm not that optimistic about it.
06:22What do you think that about other countries in the Middle East, like for example, Yemen could join Iran in retaliatory response after these recent attacks?
06:35Well, Yemen has very good military capacities, but they have small military capacities.
06:42Yemen was able, for example, to make a pressure against Israel in the context of the genocide against the Palestinians.
06:50But really what we are talking now is an attrition war, which means a very high production of missiles, very high use of missiles, of drones.
07:03It needs intelligence gathering. It's a very complex war.
07:07It's the kind of war that Russia and NATO has having with each other in Ukraine.
07:14So it's a very complex war, very long term war. So Yemen will be helping.
07:19It will be some kind of help, but very little compared to what is needed.
07:25There is also axis of resistance and they are active in Lebanon.
07:30They have been highly damaged by the Hezbollah has been highly damaged, but maybe they can join.
07:37It's something to be seen on the next days. I really don't know, but it's an element.
07:44And of course the Islamic resistance in Iraq, which is organized, which is in Iraq has been trying to put away the military bases from the United States they have in the territory.
07:59So it might be some help also in some also some aerial protection because they can help also with that.
08:10And what about European leaders? So far we haven't seen any reaction coming from them.
08:15Do you think that they could also get involved in this new escalation in the Middle East?
08:21Well, they might be involved, but European military capacities are very, very, very bad.
08:29So it won't be nothing as a game changer.
08:33Yes, and I think they will be involved because there has been like a meeting in Geneva with the Iranian foreign minister a few days ago.
08:45The meeting has lasted 19 minutes and European have just repeated exactly words by words what Donald Trump was asking from Iran.
08:54So they have no initiative. They will enter into the conflict, I think, but with very small military capacities.
09:01It will be more an international support for the old propaganda narrative that Iran is the problem.
09:10Iran is a nuclear threat and so on and so on.
09:13They will go with that and they would help with the media and so on.
09:17And yes, they will send some kind of aircraft carrier and what they have, but it's very little.
09:24And what about international community like, for example, Russia, China, as you mentioned, what we can expect if this escalation goes further and the conflict continues to develop into a more complicated situation?
09:41What can we can expect from Russia or China regarding these recent attacks?
09:50Well, Russia and the president of Russia, Vladimir Putin, has a very interesting interview yesterday and he was stating that Russia has offered to Iran a cooperation deal, a strategic cooperation deal on the level of what it is active,
10:10with North Korea, with North Korea, which is a complete defensive and a strong alliance.
10:17And Putin says that Iran refused that level of strategic cooperation and that they wanted a lesser level.
10:27And Putin also stated that for now, Iran has refused and Iran has not asked for help.
10:35So I think that Russia and China will be willing to help, but if Iran has to ask for it first.
10:44And the second, as Putin said, he says Iran is a difficult ally to help.
10:50So there are some that they would have to discuss first and what kind of help, how it will be managed, how they will frame it, etc.
11:00But, of course, the discussions between Iran and Russia has been very long for making of the treaty, the cooperation treaty.
11:12So they know how to discuss with each other.
11:15Russia might think that Iran is a difficult ally, but still they know them.
11:20So the connection exists and the dialogue exists.
11:23So this is a very good thing.
11:24So when Iran will ask for help, I'm pretty convinced that Russia will help.
11:29And China, we don't know that there are not like some open declaration, as Putin has said.
11:37Well, of course, China and Iran has a close relationship for oil, but also a strategic relationship because China understands very well that if Iran falls, United States will go afterwards against them.
11:53Maybe they would go first against Pakistan.
11:56Maybe there will be some little steps, but China knows that they are going for them.
12:01So, of course, they will help Iran, I think.
12:04So we have many experts also pointed out that these U.S. strikes on Iran will encourage more states to seek nuclear weapons.
12:14Do you think that this will be possible in other states that will feel encouraged to seek for nuclear weapons after these U.S. strikes?
12:29Yes, absolutely.
12:30Because the proof has been made today that if you enter into negotiations with the GCPOA that has been signed by Iran in 2015, that you comply with all the IAEA procedures and demands and so on.
12:50If you really comply with everything, it doesn't matter if they are going for you if they want.
12:56So it's a complete failure in negotiation and diplomatic terms.
13:01And, of course, if a country thinks that not developing nuclear weapons will make them in the good papers of the United States, well, they have the proof it's not.
13:13So, yes, the nuclear non-proliferation treaty is something that might be revised by some countries, officially or not officially.
13:26Thank you, Emerlinda Malkotti, she is an international analyst. Thank you for your time with us.
13:35Thank you very much for inviting me.
13:40And she was Emerlinda Malkotti, an international analyst regarding this important issue about U.S. strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities.
13:52She has given us her insights about the further developments of these attacks.
