00:00So you're just speaking there about this all-out war, but you were a former British Army officer with lots of experience, Tobias, in the Middle East.
00:09If we see an escalation between Israel and Iran, and I know you're saying Donald Trump right now is holding off U.S. involvement,
00:19but what threat does this actually pose to the region?
00:23Like you said, we've seen Syria fall.
00:25It could be a good time right now because it is a weakened Iran.
00:29But what's the ramifications?
00:31Well, it's interesting that people are now swatting up and learning a bit more about what Iran is all about.
00:39For most of Europe, they don't appreciate that it's actually the size of Western Europe.
00:4492 million people there not really enjoyed democracy at all.
00:50And if you're going to lift the lid off an oppressed population and suddenly expect democracy to flourish, you've got another thing coming.
00:59Take a look at Syria.
01:00We were just discussing that.
01:02Assad, the dictator, has gone, replaced by an old al-Qaeda boss.
01:08So what would happen is probably civil war.
01:10But even before we get there, it's likely that if this war persisted or elevated, the regime would go down fighting.
01:18It still has a lot of ballistic missiles left.
01:21If they were targeting American assets in Iraq and so forth, it would then impact on the economy,
01:26the Straits of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and so on, with wider ramifications for the entire global economy.
01:33These are very difficult times.
01:35Indeed, there's no doubt about it.
01:37But America's hesitance here, I think, is an indication to say it doesn't want to get involved.
01:43And it is looking for a different direction of travel.
01:46It's very easy, as I say, with superior weapons, with intelligence, to blast the regime into oblivion.
01:54It's much more difficult to find a long-term peace and stability.
01:58That is the difficult piece.
01:59And that's where capital cities across Europe and beyond are scratching their heads.
