- 6/17/2025
Clifford Winston, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, joins "Forbes Newsroom" to discuss President Trump's leadership style in his second term, and how that is impacting his policymaking and the American people.
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00:00Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes. Joining me now
00:07is Clifford Winston, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. Clifford, thank you so
00:12much for joining me. For asking me to be here. I'm excited to have another conversation today
00:17because you recently wrote a piece about President Trump's leadership style and what that really
00:22means and the implications for both the American people and the country moving forward. So can you
00:28talk to us about it? Because this is what the title was. What a narcissistic populist presidency
00:33means for American policy and its people. So some pretty strong words describing President Trump's
00:39leadership style. I mean, I think there are two themes to his presidency and leadership style,
00:47as you say. One is he really tries to market himself and marketing is the right word because
00:53that's what he likes to do as a populist. He doesn't take hardline conservative views.
01:00You know, the market is king and I only believe in the market. And he doesn't take liberal views,
01:05certainly that we need government intervention. He'll go either way, depending on what he thinks
01:11he can market to the public. This is in your interest. And I'm, quote, representing you by doing,
01:19quote, the popular thing. So, you know, that's where this populist idea comes. And I don't think
01:25there's any controversy about it. I think that he would own up to it. That's what he does. He's not
01:30a liberal, he's not a conservative, goes either way, but he's doing things that are in the interest of
01:36the public. But then there's the personal part of who he is as a human being. And again, I don't even
01:42think that's controversial. He's a narcissist. I mean, anyone who says that I'm here, you know,
01:50at God's mission or says, you know, I run the U.S., I run the world, there's somebody who looks back
01:57at his reflection and really it's a narcissistic type of person who does that. And obviously this
02:05is something that, you know, I don't think I've ever even heard him deny him saying that.
02:11Yeah. So it's an interesting tension, which we certainly, I don't think I've ever seen before,
02:16certainly in the post-war period we have it, of a president who has marked himself as a populist,
02:20but also has this personal characteristic as a narcissist. The implication of the piece
02:25is that this is going to have some implications for policy that are quite important and even played
02:31out over this weekend in a number of events that we can talk about.
02:35And I want to get into that, but first, the idea of populism in the United States really cropped up
02:41in the late 19th century, in the 1880s and 1890s with farmers in the United States essentially
02:47railing against the elites. So are you surprised to see someone like President Trump take on this
02:54populist stance? And has that ever really worked? Because when you're looking at President Trump,
02:58as of right now, as of when you and I are sitting here, he's the 720th richest person in the world,
03:04according to Forbes. His fortune sits right now at $5.3 billion. So is that really someone who is,
03:12should be a populist type leader? Oh, that's what's the amazing thing,
03:17is that there's nothing really about Trump that at all speaks of populism, just the opposite.
03:25You know, his goal in life is to be accepted among the elite of any sort and certainly the rich elite.
03:32You know, he doesn't feel comfortable really with regular people. So it is amazing. But, you know,
03:39he's been able to market this and was able to sort of touch the waters, in my view, first by talking
03:46about Obama and whether he was born in this country. That resonated with people and he saw it. And he's
03:53then pursuing this anti-immigrant pattern or policy and orientation, which, again, has resonated with
04:01people and simultaneously attacking liberals, elites, Harvard University, other types of elite
04:08institutions. It's working. I think, you know, we need an in-depth study to understand why. I'm as
04:17puzzled as everybody else. But, you know, I can't deny reality. So one would not expect him
04:23to really be the person you go to to be the populist. But certainly the tone and orientation
04:29of his presidency is that. But remember, there's still another part that's critical. And that's his
04:35own personal characteristics. And as you said, I mean, he is popular. His approval rating right now
04:41sits at 46 percent. And where he has the strongest support on policies are immigration. And he, I mean,
04:51that has really been controversial over the past couple of weeks with different anti-Ice protests
04:58and things like that. And he's taken this really hardline stance when it comes to immigration. So do
05:03you, he is the standard bearer of the GOP. So do you see the GOP going more populous in the future? I
05:11mean, what does that look like to you? What are the implications here? Also be clear, I would not
05:17say that Trump is particularly popular. I mean, 46 percent approval is not great. And it's better than
05:23President Biden, though, last year. I will say that. OK, that's fair. But I don't know how often he's even
05:31got above 50 percent. What he is, is he holds passionate support. That's how much popular is the
05:39people who like him, love him and probably more than most leaders in the U.S. And they're really
05:46passionate about him. And so this, though, is getting into a bit of trouble. You know, we look at his
05:54immigration plan and the actions of ICE. All right. And people are very passionate about this. But now
06:01Trump has taken a detour on this recently when he said, well, maybe we're going to hold back
06:07on trying to deport people who work in agriculture, people who work in restaurants, people who work
06:16in manufacturing. You know, allegedly it's because his secretary of agriculture has pushed him in this
06:22direction. But he realizes, as I think anybody would, these people provide valuable services.
06:29If you get rid of them, output's going to decrease, prices are going to go up, and this is going to be a
06:35problem. So in one sense, you know, he's reacting to that in terms of a popular way. But there's
06:44tension because the MAGA supporters don't like that at all. They like his hardline approach. They
06:50don't want him to make any exceptions. Right. And look at what that's going to lead to. That could very well
06:56lead to what Trump hates more than anything else, being referred to as taco. Trump always chickens out.
07:05And if you see him backing off now on some of these immigration policies, he's going to be accused of
07:12that. And he's not going to like that. And we'll see what tension that leads to. He may go back,
07:18say, no, we're going to get rid of these people. And it doesn't matter what happens in terms of output
07:24and prices. And that's exactly the trouble you get into when you're trying to simultaneously combine
07:31populism with your own narcissistic instincts. And that's one of a number of things that are
07:37now coming up. So then when you go through and look at it through that lens, I want to talk about
07:43some events we we've seen recently. Let's talk about this weekend because we saw a military parade.
07:49President Trump was a big proponent of this. It cost, according to the army, anywhere between 25 to 45
07:56million dollars to produce. Military parades haven't happened in America in a couple of decades, at least.
08:04I mean, what do you make of what we saw on display this weekend? It is the perfect illustration of the tension
08:11of his presidency. You know, on the one hand, yes, military parades, in many ways, are the ultimate populist
08:19thing to do. You've won a war. You want to show appreciation. You take pride in your military. So you have an
08:25event. Makes perfect sense. Problem was, we didn't win a war. There's no reason to have this in terms of any
08:35specific event. Secondly, this really wasn't well coordinated with the military. I know of people who
08:44were there. I'm in D.C. and I got reports back. And it was a lackluster affair. You know, the streets
08:51were, you know, teeming with enthusiastic supporters. It was a pretty somber event. You know, what this then
09:00turned out to be is not populism, but narcissism. Trump wanted this. You know, he was absolutely
09:07excited when he saw this going on in France. And he says, I must have this. And he wanted the attention.
09:14And yes, I mean, the cost wasn't huge, but it was it was basically a dud in the sense that it did little
09:21to really generate populist support and was only used for him. And I think that was apparent. And I think
09:28probably at least any military people involved in this think, why did we do this? This is all
09:33was for his ego. So that was just an example of tension that just really was not good for the
09:40country. And so I'm sure a the weather didn't help and be the no kings protests in major cities around
09:46the country cropping up to counter protest. The event certainly didn't help either. But now I want to
09:52talk about how his leadership is impacting the American people. So first, let's look at immigration
09:58because that is really has become almost a third rail issue in this country, especially when what
10:04we've seen in Los Angeles and protests throughout the country, anti ice demonstrations over the way
10:12ice is handling deporting people. What do you what do you make of that?
10:19Problem here. And this is the problem, certainly with Doge and other policies, is you never get the big
10:27picture and most importantly, the end game. You get the symbols, right? You get the symbols of we're
10:34going to get rid of criminals, you know, who are illegal immigrants, right? We're, you know, we're not
10:39going to allow foreign students, you know, we're going to steal our secrets, all these kinds of things
10:44of that nature, right? What in the end is all this going to get us, right? When we think about
10:52deporting 2 million people, right? When we think about restricting students from coming here,
10:59so on and so forth. What is our economy going to look like? Are prices going to go down? Is employment
11:05going to go up? You never hear any discussion about that. And now, in certain markets of the economy,
11:12we start seeing concerns. Wait a minute, you start getting rid of some of these workers,
11:17they're the other ones doing this and the only people who want to do this. This is going to cause
11:21problems in production. This is going to hurt us because services aren't going to be available
11:26or we're going to have to pay more for them. You know, we're just starting to see rumblings of this.
11:32You know, this is quite new and these things do take time. But I think that's the big problem is there's no
11:39vision of where this is taking us. And I think that's really the problem in selling it, at least to people
11:46who are sort of trying to be rational about it, as opposed to getting wrapped up in all the passion
11:50and anti-immigrant hate in this country. What are we going to get for it? And I just don't think that
11:56there's any statement about that in a serious way. But I think we're starting to see, yes, we know what
12:01we're going to get for it. And it's not going to turn out good. I'm curious when you hear the argument
12:06of something like, what is this going to do to the economy? No one wants these jobs. You'll have to
12:12pay more for the jobs. Republicans have countered that argument by saying, well, A, you should be
12:17hiring people who are here legally, Americans, and B, you should be paying people a fair wage.
12:24At that point, you're just exploiting some undocumented migrant. I mean, what do you make
12:29of that argument? Oh, if it were true, it would be a valid argument. I mean, you first got to ask the
12:34question, you know, why aren't they hiring legal people? Right. And usually the answer is more than that,
12:40they don't want to do this work. Now, it is certainly true by hiring ill leaders, we pay them
12:45less and we don't have to worry about entitlements and all that kind of thing. But I think the truth
12:51is they feel, and I think it's probably right, that there's just not, this is not what Americans want
12:57to do. And these people want to work in the fields and agriculture, we'll pay them less than we would
13:03if we had to get Americans. And again, if this were such a harmful policy, look at the big picture.
13:11Why isn't our unemployment rate much higher? In other words, if this were an activity that was
13:18denying Americans work, wouldn't we see this in the unemployment statistics? Because then these were
13:25jobs that they wanted, regular legal people, and couldn't get them. So they'd have to file for
13:31unemployment. I would think that this would all sort of rationalize, you know, be able to be
13:37rationalized in terms of the little picture, if you will, and the overall macroeconomy. And we just
13:43don't see that. And that I think then is the concern with the counterargument that this just really is
13:49not a strong source of threats to employment in this country. And I think this is something that
13:55economically works for obviously our producers. Oh, by the way, now are being targets. So Trump now
14:03wants to focus, he said this, on the people hiring illegal people. But then the question is, okay, what
14:10do you want to do with them? What are you going to get out of this? You know, instead of thinking
14:14constructively, okay, we realize this is an economic benefit to you. And hopefully we're convinced
14:21there's not an opportunity cost in the sense you really are denying employment to a large sector of
14:28the population. I don't think that's true, right? And what do you want to do? And my sense would be
14:36the importance of targeting employers is to deal with the illegal problem. That is, have some sort of
14:43guest workers. You know where these people are. They're responsible also for keeping track of their
14:49criminal records. Or if anything like that happens, it's, you know, causing concerns about
14:55them being here, so on and so forth. That could make things more manageable. And that would be
14:59constructive and help safety if that's a concern, right? But at this point, we don't know. If he just,
15:05if Trump just says, I'm going to threaten you. And if you hire illegal people, we're going to find you and
15:10do other things. Again, what are we going to get for this? Is this going to help our economy?
15:16I just don't see the argument that is being made that it will.
15:21Immigration is also an issue that is folded into President Trump's legislation, the One Big
15:25Beautiful Bill Act, which is really a hallmark of his second term. It contains his signature tax
15:31and immigration policies. President Trump, ever since he came onto the scene politically,
15:36has been someone who's positioned himself as fighting for the little guy, railing against the
15:41liberal elites. But the CBO, which is nonpartisan, has said that this legislation will make the poorest
15:47in this country poorer, the richest in this country richer. It will leave millions of people
15:52uninsured due to Medicaid cuts. It will leave millions of people without food assistance because of
15:58cuts to snap. So from the lens of calling President Trump a populist, I mean, what do you
16:03make of this legislation? Is this a populist legislation? He's marketing it as a populist
16:10legislation. Remember, that's a key word. It's marketing it. But again, the fundamental problem
16:17with a lot of what he's done is you never get a very clear overview on how we're getting from here to
16:25there and what there looks like. So when you're saying we want to pass this big, beautiful bill,
16:33OK, what are we going to get for this? Are your taxes going to be reduced? Yes. But who pays most
16:39of the taxes, right? So this is going to help the more affluent people. Lower income people don't pay
16:45that much. Some of them don't pay anything. So this is just an example in terms of the narcissistic
16:51behavior of my instincts. You know, Trump thinks, I think this is good and likes to say, I make my
16:59decisions for my gut. My gut tells me we need to do these things that are part of this bill,
17:06you know, cutting certain spending, cutting certain government activities. I don't care about
17:12counter arguments that certain less affluent people really depend on these things. My gut tells me
17:18we need to do this. And the process of doing it, we also can cut taxes. Again, my gut tells me
17:24these things are good. And I think also a problem then on the other side is a lot of people don't
17:32know exactly what's in this bill. And elites tell them it's bad, but they don't trust the leads. And
17:39they certainly don't trust the media. If you tell them that, look, this is going to hurt you,
17:44I don't believe it. You know, that's sort of where we got to in this country. But this is,
17:51I think, how it's been working for him to retain this sort of marketing populism approach, but
17:58largely doing things from his ego and his gut, which is a problem. So where this ends up is once we see
18:06the true effects of this legislation and policies, and they start hurting people. And we just saw an
18:13example of this where there was this concern in agriculture and immigrants and going back on this,
18:18then it's going to be a challenge for Trump. Are you going to back off on what you've been doing and
18:23realize it's having adverse effects and people are unhappy with you about it? Or are you going to
18:30double down and say, look, I want this and take even a more autocratic approach to governance? That,
18:37I think, is the tension we have coming up ahead. And let me just quickly add, the one thing that's
18:43going to come soon, gas prices. With the conflict between Iran and Israel, you know, there are now
18:51serious concerns of what this can do for gas prices in America, simply because of what that war can do
18:58and restrict the flow of petroleum through the Strait of Hormuz and other types of things of that
19:05nature. Gas prices start shooting up in this country. Then there's going to be complaints that,
19:11wait a minute, you know, you've cut off our subsidies to electric vehicles, which is exactly
19:16what we need now. And you'll see again, all that tension all over again. So that's coming up.
19:22Well, let's look internationally and let's look abroad and what you think President Trump's
19:28leadership means for a few different conflicts we have been dealing with between Russia and Ukraine,
19:34as well as just last week, the continuing escalation between Israel and Iran.
19:40What do you think President Trump's leadership means for the future of these two conflicts?
19:46Now, again, it's always uncertainty. The only certainty is somehow he wants to thrust
19:52himself in the middle of things to sort of, you know, look good. So, for example, with Israel
19:59and Iran, Trump does not take kindly to the fact that Israel appears to be going along.
20:10They thought of this attack. They decided to do it. Maybe they cleared it with the U.S. Maybe they
20:16didn't. We don't know for sure. Trump says he knew. But they're doing it. And what that said,
20:22is our effort to diplomacy did not work. So our efforts to try to get, you know, some sort of
20:29diplomatic understanding with Tehran to cut back on the nuclear weapons, you know, that Israel was not
20:35waiting for that. They didn't believe it would happen or they were impatient and they just took off.
20:40So right there, again, these are things that Trump does not like. He wants to then stick himself.
20:45Well, I, you know, I knew of this. And by the way, I also discouraged Israel from killing the Supreme
20:53Leader. You know, who knows whether he did or he didn't? Netanyahu wouldn't comment on that.
20:59So that's the kind of role he'll play. But Israel's got their policy and they are hell bent on making it
21:07absolutely clear that Iran is not going to threaten them with nuclear weapons.
21:13I don't think there's any doubt that they're committed to that. And I don't know. I don't
21:17think there's anything Trump can do. He's going to try to speak up every once in a while to say,
21:23I'm a big player here and you have to pay attention to me. But I don't think there's anything he can do.
21:27I think it's the same way with Russia and Ukraine, but it's a different way. Russia is committed to
21:35taking over Ukraine. That is Putin's policy. If we want to end this to end, it's Putin has to go.
21:43But he's not going to have any diplomatic resolution to this. He's committed to it. And he's going to win
21:51is his goal. If he plays around with Trump, it'll just be a diversion. He wants to win and he's
22:01committed to it. So again, Trump can tell stories that, yes, I'm trying to convince Putin to have
22:08some sort of diplomatic settlement. Zelensky isn't cooperating. Again, act like he's a player
22:17and trying to affect things, but he's not. Each key member abroad has their ambition and Trump is
22:26not going to curb it. And it's frustrating to him. And I'm sure he'll pick on the weaker side.
22:34I think in Israel and Iran, there's nothing really he can do at all. I mean, he can say what he wants
22:39about that. You know, he's determined and Iran is in real trouble. So he keeps the only thing he's
22:45trying to do there is tell them, surrender, you know, otherwise they'll get bombed even more.
22:50That's the kind of thing he'll do. Similar kind of thing with Ukraine, you know, give up something,
22:56you know, be more flexible, more reasonable, or you'll be totally defeated. Well, they're not going
23:01to do that either. So it's going to be frustrating to see him try to be a big player, but he's not
23:06going to have any effective role. That's what I think. Something that President Trump really wants
23:12to get done is a slew of tariff deals, a bunch of trade deals. And we are less than a month right
23:18now from that deadline of when the reciprocal tariffs were meant to go back into effect.
23:23What do you make of where we're at right now with those negotiations? And what are you looking for
23:29going forward? Because as of right now, I mean, we have, according to both Chinese and U.S. officials,
23:35a framework or a handshake to a framework of a deal with China. There are some other deals that are
23:41potentially in, you know, the works, but nothing's really more concrete than that as we sit here right
23:46now. You know, we're seeing the same pattern, right? We're seeing, you know, the key narcissistic
23:54thrust of, I go on my gut. So despite what all my colleagues in the economics profession think,
24:02the tariffs are a bad idea, Trump is absolutely committed to them. And it keeps on sort of trying
24:08to find ways to sort of push people to do them and say there'll be great things. And of course,
24:14you know, we have enormous concerns that, no, they're not great things. They're going to raise
24:19prices and they're not going to really address an employment problem that you think exists. And this
24:25is really not our problem. You want to stimulate employment, stimulate economic growth. That's what
24:29you should be doing. So I think it's more of the same. They'll be discussed, you know,
24:34he'll be talking a good game about how important tariffs are. He'll try to exert leverage where he
24:39can and there'll be discussions. But I think people now who are in foreign countries realize that
24:48if you stand up to Trump, you try to resist him, he'll have his little tantrums, but you can find ways
24:55to get things to slow down, especially if you point out this is going to be very hurtful to the United
25:00States. So China's a master at playing games. I mean, they love doing that kind of thing in real
25:07life. They love going to Las Vegas and gambling. And they're loving this. This is exactly the kind
25:14of thing they play into. I don't see any way that Trump is going to get any really significant sessions
25:21out of the Chinese. At the same time, Chinese are making it clear to us, look, there's stuff of us
25:27you want. And you obviously want rare earths. We have them. And don't think you can push us around
25:35and still get rare earths, right? So that's going to be the kind of thing that's going to be dangling
25:39there. You know, with other countries, maybe it'll make a little more, a little less progress.
25:44But just generally, it's the same thing. You're telling a story that you're going to help America
25:50by making it easier for us to hire our own people and not to export goods and not rely
26:01on goods produced by other people. And you should believe me, right? But the evidence is going to tell
26:07you something else, that prices are going up. And truth be told, we're not really exporting that much.
26:13And at the same time, we're hurting ourselves because other countries are not going to send us
26:18those things that we want. So it's, you know, again, we're going to see this over and over again.
26:24The real question is, what happens when it hits a breaking point, that what he's done is harmful,
26:29and the public does not like it, and they let him know, is he going to back down? Or is he going to
26:36actually double down and be more autocratic? That, I think, is the remaining question about
26:42the remaining part of his term.
26:44When do you think that breaking point is? Because one of the top issues facing voters
26:49in the 2024 election that made the majority of voters vote for President Trump was the economy.
26:56And we're coming up on that July 9th deadline with tariffs. Do you think that point is,
27:02is when people feel the impact of tariffs? Do you think that point is, if President Trump kicks the
27:08can down the road again when it comes to trade deals? Do you, and B, do you think that President
27:14Trump, he has been accused, there has been that joke, the acronym you mentioned earlier,
27:18Taco Trump, Trump always chickens out. He was not a fan of that when he heard that,
27:22when a reporter asked him about that. But do you think we're going to see on July 9th,
27:26another pause, another kick down, kicking the can down the road? And will people like that?
27:31I think that at this point, you know, I think you're right that July 9th, yeah,
27:38there'll probably be more kicking cans down the road. Maybe he'll get some, quote, trade deal with
27:44somebody, and he'll make a big deal about that. You know, I've got some trade deal with the UK,
27:50probably amount to much, but he'll slowly push that milk it for all it's worth. But I think in
27:56generally, it just, you know, continues to be stalling. Again, I think it's on the other side
28:02now. People understand who he is, and realize that he can be persuaded, or he can either be
28:11threatened, which, you know, people didn't think before, but he can be certain things that are
28:17going to hurt us if he acts against other countries. Or he could be charmed and, you know,
28:24be more patient. So I think those kind of games are going to go on forever. What I'm more concerned
28:29about are some of these now bigger international issues, again, like energy prices. You know,
28:35this business that's going on in the Middle East is pretty scary. And, you know, that's a real thing
28:41that hurts people. We know that. And we'll have to see. And that's something beyond Trump's control.
28:49He's really not going to be able to do anything. And so the question's going to be,
28:53how is he going to handle a shock like that? You know, people don't really recall. His first term
29:00was a pretty good first term in terms of what we call external shocks. Yes, it had the one bad one,
29:08and it was a bad one, COVID, but that came at the end. Before that, everything was smooth sailing,
29:14right? So the one chance we really had to see Trump's leadership skills came about in COVID.
29:20And his leadership skills were hardly great. So the question is, what happens when there's another
29:26shock coming up the pike? And there could very well be one on the energy side. How is he going to
29:32handle that? I think the trade stuff is going to go back and forth for a while. I don't see that as
29:37the big ticket item. But I'm a little bit more concerned now with what's going to be going on with
29:44the Middle East, because that's now getting to be scary. Well, there is certainly a lot to look out
29:49for a lot of developing situations, both domestically and abroad. And I hope as we continue to see the
29:57next iteration of them, you come back on and join me and break them down. Clifford Winston, I always
30:02appreciate your perspective. Thank you so much for joining me. Good for having me. Enjoy.