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00:00The skies over both Iran and Israel may seem ignited by missiles,
00:07but there are already signs Iran's shooting fight is slowing down.
00:11It is believed to have had at least 2,000 ballistic missiles,
00:17but Israel has been targeting its stockpiles and launchers.
00:21So by Sunday, day 3 of the conflict, Iran was already firing fewer at Israel.
00:27While Tehran has the largest number of ballistic missiles in the Middle East,
00:31it must still conserve.
00:35And some of what it's firing is landing.
00:39Israel's much-vaunted Iron Dome system,
00:42highly effective against the slower and smaller rockets of Hamas and Hezbollah,
00:47is of limited use against Iran's ballistic missiles,
00:51which shoot more than 1,000 kilometres up
00:54before dropping to their target at supersonic speed or faster.
01:00Instead, Israel uses its Aero system,
01:03designed with the Americans to intercept missiles outside the atmosphere.
01:08It's more than 90% effective,
01:11but each shoot-down can cost $2 million,
01:14and those interceptors are also in limited supply.
01:17This means, strategically, Iran is choosing its targets carefully,
01:22and Israel may be choosing which missiles to intercept and which not to.
01:28Israel says it wants to stop Iran from getting a nuclear weapon.
01:32Now, to do that, it's been striking here,
01:35the above-ground fuel enrichment facility at Natanz.
01:39But fully destroying the one below ground is much harder.
01:44Then, there's Iran's deeply buried enrichment facility, Fordo.
01:48For now, it is impossible for Israel to destroy it unless they can get inside.
01:54From the skies above, the only non-nuclear weapon which could destroy Fordo
01:59is a 30,000-pound munition called the Massive Ordnance Penetrator.
02:04Only the US has that bomb, and the B-2 bomber aircraft needed to deliver it.
02:11So far, the Americans say they don't want to be involved in any bombing runs inside Iran.
02:17Iran, though, says it's moving the nuclear fuel there out.
02:21Were it to lose, Fordo, it would likely mean an end to Iran's nuclear ambitions for years to come.
02:28Meanwhile, Iran appears to have lost control over some of its own skies.
02:33Israel has destroyed the anti-aircraft defenses inside Iran
02:37and has been flying its own fighter planes in without getting shot down.
02:42This is what's called air superiority.
02:45Let's bring in Janice Stein, founding director of the Munk School of Global Affairs.
02:49Janice, Iran has also claimed that it is using a very powerful guided ballistic missile.
02:55That would be a munition we've never seen the country use before.
02:58What do you make of those claims?
03:00I'm not wholly persuaded about that, Adrian, because we are not seeing a significant change in the rate at which these missiles are being intercepted.
03:12We should if this was a hypersonic guided maneuverable solid fuel missile, and Iran has claimed all of that.
03:22Okay.
03:23Interestingly, so we're watching Israel targeting Iran's nuclear projects.
03:29Is it your sense that that will make the regime in Iran slow down on nuclear development,
03:34or could it just mobilize it to try to move faster, say, see, we're being attacked, we have to go faster?
03:39There's no question it could go either way.
03:41It is entirely possible that Iran will rush to break out.
03:48It has moved some of that enriched fuel, it claims, to a secret location, and it could race to build a bomb and announce that it has done that.
04:00But it doesn't, it will not have the opportunity to test that weapon or to marry it with the delivery system.
04:07So we know that, you know, Israel has targeted also nuclear scientists.
04:12Is there not a whole, like, cohort of nuclear science students sort of waiting in the wings?
04:19I mean, that alone won't necessarily hurt Iran's nuclear program.
04:26You are right.
04:28These are clearly the leaders of the program.
04:31But this is not novel technology, Adrienne.
04:35And there's a very rich, sophisticated scientific community in Iran.
04:40So I would not place a great deal of weight on that.
04:44I guess what we know about wars is that they're really easy to start, less so, you know, how they end, how you even know in a way that they're over.
04:54So I'm curious, for Israel, what on earth is success or endgame here?
05:00You know, a successful end would be that Iran no longer be permitted to engage in enrichment on Iranian soil.
05:11That's what they've asked for.
05:14The Ayatollah Khamenei has dug in repeatedly and said that Iran has that right under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
05:25And he will not concede.
05:27That's the standoff that we're facing.
05:30And it is up to the mediators now to craft a solution that lets both of them off the hook.
05:38Yeah.
05:39Some dangerous days ahead.
05:40All right.
05:41Janice Stein, as always, thank you.
05:42So welcome.

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