The Trump administration has launched a review of the US$240 billion submarine agreement with Australia and the U.K., Aukus. TaiwanPlus spoke with Jennifer Parker, expert associate at the National Security College of Australia National University, on what the review means.
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00:00So why is the US reviewing the AUKUS Pact? Is it a cause for concern or is it just a normal process for a new administration?
00:10In terms of whether it's a normal process, I don't think anything about AUKUS is or will ever be normal. It's such a large, expensive, ambitious program. Why is the US conducting the review right now? Well, we don't clearly know. The US Department of Defence hasn't made a statement about it. It's been leaked to the media.
00:27And the Australian government was aware of it. So we can confirm that it's actually happening.
00:32My view is, to be honest, the US releases a national defence strategy every four years. In May this year, US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth said that they would be accelerating the national defence strategy that was due in 2026.
00:46It would now need to be delivered in August 25. And so I suspect it's part of the national defence strategy.
00:52A lot of commentators have come out and said, you know, AUKUS is sinking, it's the end of AUKUS and things like that.
00:58But realistically, it's quite prudent to do a review. We know what the challenges are for AUKUS.
01:03And I would argue that most of those challenges are being mitigated.
01:07From a US perspective, there is a significant amount in this deal for the US.
01:11And so I think the review will find that AUKUS is a positive commitment for the US.
01:15And I think things will go largely to plan.
01:17That actually brings me on to my next question. So with this deal, Australia is set to receive nuclear-powered submarines.
01:25What's actually in it for the US?
01:28For this deal, Australia will buy US nuclear-powered submarines.
01:32And I think it's important to highlight that because a lot of people talk about this as gifting or giving Australian nuclear-powered submarines.
01:39And Australia is paying a significant amount of money in for this.
01:43But I think all three partners of the AUKUS deal have committed to this for their own national interests, right?
01:48Countries don't do things, especially defence acquisitions, altruistically.
01:53So the US, a number of things they get out of this.
01:56One, if you look at a map of the Indo-Pacific, which the US says is its primary theatre,
02:02you think Australia is pretty important in terms of the geography.
02:05Australia is at the apex of the Indian and the Pacific Oceans, and it is further enough away from China to sit out of the range of most of China's missiles in the event of a crisis or conflict.
02:17So the ability to operate submarines from Australia makes life easier for the US in the Indo-Pacific.
02:24The second element is Australia is building up its submarine base and its repair yard.
02:30So the ability to maintain US submarines in Australia closer to their theatre of choice,
02:36but also reducing the burden on maintenance yards in the US, which we know is a key challenge, is beneficial for the US.
02:44That could keep going on with this list.
02:45It might get a bit boring.
02:46But Australia is critically important to what the US wants to achieve in the Indo-Pacific.
02:51Now, critics of this deal include the Pentagon's top policy advisor, Elbridge Colby.
02:56He's previously said that if military conflict broke out over Taiwan, having fewer submarines for the US would be, quote, crazy.
03:04What would you say to that?
03:06When he went through his congressional confirmation, he said,
03:09I think the US should do everything in its power to make AUKUS work.
03:12So there's been quite positive things as well.
03:14Realistically, from an Australian perspective, a conflict over Taiwan is not simply a conflict over Taiwan.
03:20I think it is a region-wide conflict.
03:23If you look from any military planner perspective, and I spent over two decades in the Australian military,
03:28you don't look at the chance of invading Taiwan and just think about that as an amphibious invasion.
03:32You think about that in terms of suppressing military bases in Japan, the Philippines, etc.
03:37So it's a region-wide conflict that has Australian equities in it straight away.
03:41Now, in terms of the US submarine numbers, on paper, you know, the US has a certain amount of numbers,
03:49but their ability to actually get those into the right theatre, so in terms of the distance,
03:54the speed and distance, but also maintain those in the theatre, is assisted by Australia.
03:59So I would say that the amount of submarines you have on paper isn't what matters.
04:03It's the amount of submarines you have in the right time, the right place, with the right capability.
04:06And that's why Australia is important to this.