Tasmania's major parties have started making their pitches to voters, after the state's governor approved a snap election

ABC's Chief Elections Analyst Casey Briggs explains the state of play in Tasmania.

Transcript

00:00Here we go again.

00:03Tassie's set for a mid-winter election that no-one seems all that keen on.

00:08It's probably Labor's best shot of returning to government

00:11since it lost power in 2014.

00:14But it may only end up with the same fragile grip on power

00:18that Jeremy Rockliffe had until last week.

00:22The Liberals' polling has been sliding for years now since the pandemic.

00:26But this was the poll that turned heads

00:29when EMRS last month recorded a significant slump for the Liberals.

00:34And Labor leading on primary voting intention for the first time since 2009.

00:40But most of the Liberals' fall seems to have gone to independence.

00:44Labor was roughly steady at 31%.

00:46That puts Labor in a decent position to be the biggest party in Parliament.

00:52But under Tasmania's Hare Clark electoral system

00:54that sees each of the five electorates choose seven members,

00:5831% is not going to deliver a party-majority government.

01:03The opposition currently has 10 members of Parliament to the government's 14.

01:09There are five Greens and a further six on the crossbench.

01:13Labor will be fighting this campaign without two of their stronger candidates,

01:17former leader Rebecca White and retiring Speaker Michelle O'Byrne.

01:21On the other side, the Premier's hoping recruits like former federal MP Bridget Archer

01:26will help defend their territory in the north.

01:30This election again gives us the peculiar scenario of a campaign

01:34set to be dominated by an AFL stadium that voters don't love,

01:39but both major parties are committed to.

01:41That EMRS poll suggests an opportunity for independents and minor parties,

01:46especially those against the stadium,

01:48if they can get their campaigns off the ground fast.

01:52Jackie Lambie isn't endorsing candidates this time,

01:55so have the three elected with her party last year done enough to be re-elected?

01:59Can the Greens pick up an extra member, perhaps in Franklin?

02:03And will there be any new faces?

02:05But the biggest question is,

02:08will Tasmanians endorse the government of Jeremy Rockliffe,

02:11or will they, inspired by the season, opt for winter?

02:17Or will the state end up in much the same place as it currently is?