ABC's Chief Elections Analyst Casey Briggs explains the state of play in Tasmania.
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00:00Here we go again.
00:03Tassie's set for a mid-winter election that no-one seems all that keen on.
00:08It's probably Labor's best shot of returning to government
00:11since it lost power in 2014.
00:14But it may only end up with the same fragile grip on power
00:18that Jeremy Rockliffe had until last week.
00:22The Liberals' polling has been sliding for years now since the pandemic.
00:26But this was the poll that turned heads
00:29when EMRS last month recorded a significant slump for the Liberals.
00:34And Labor leading on primary voting intention for the first time since 2009.
00:40But most of the Liberals' fall seems to have gone to independence.
00:44Labor was roughly steady at 31%.
00:46That puts Labor in a decent position to be the biggest party in Parliament.
00:52But under Tasmania's Hare Clark electoral system
00:54that sees each of the five electorates choose seven members,
00:5831% is not going to deliver a party-majority government.
01:03The opposition currently has 10 members of Parliament to the government's 14.
01:09There are five Greens and a further six on the crossbench.
01:13Labor will be fighting this campaign without two of their stronger candidates,
01:17former leader Rebecca White and retiring Speaker Michelle O'Byrne.
01:21On the other side, the Premier's hoping recruits like former federal MP Bridget Archer
01:26will help defend their territory in the north.
01:30This election again gives us the peculiar scenario of a campaign
01:34set to be dominated by an AFL stadium that voters don't love,
01:39but both major parties are committed to.
01:41That EMRS poll suggests an opportunity for independents and minor parties,
01:46especially those against the stadium,
01:48if they can get their campaigns off the ground fast.
01:52Jackie Lambie isn't endorsing candidates this time,
01:55so have the three elected with her party last year done enough to be re-elected?
01:59Can the Greens pick up an extra member, perhaps in Franklin?
02:03And will there be any new faces?
02:05But the biggest question is,
02:08will Tasmanians endorse the government of Jeremy Rockliffe,
02:11or will they, inspired by the season, opt for winter?
02:17Or will the state end up in much the same place as it currently is?