Padres Slight Favorites vs. Dodgers in Tight Matchup on Tuesday

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Transcript

00:00Pitcher listed right now, as I see it, on FanDuel for San Diego, it's Dylan Cease.

00:05And the Padres, an ever-so-slight favorite, minus 110.

00:09Minus 106 on the other side for L.A., who have only been booked as an underdog 12 times this season.

00:16DRS, total 8.5.

00:17Are you seeing a starter named by Dave Roberts just yet?

00:22I have one showing Sour is the starter.

00:26Let me see if I can get something on the opposite side here.

00:28Let's see.

00:28I see Sour in both locations that I'm looking at here.

00:32Now, granted, when you take a look at a guy named Matt Sour, not a lot this season.

00:3578 total batters that he's faced, only 39 in the last 30 days.

00:39But here's the interesting part about this again.

00:41We talked about it.

00:42Close line, you always favor the Los Angeles Dodgers.

00:45This might be a little bit different because we don't have a pedigree pitcher, per se, on the mound for Matt Sour.

00:50He's struggled over the past 39 batters he's faced to a 278 ISO power number.

00:55Not a great lineup hitting-wise against right-handed pitching for those Padres over the past 30 days.

01:0068-degree temperatures.

01:01But here's what I want to focus on, though.

01:03It's Dylan Cease on the opposite side.

01:05Of course, we know the Dodgers have a better lineup than the San Diego Padres tonight.

01:08Cease's numbers over his past 114 batters, they're not great, Ben.

01:12It's a 192 ISO and a weighted on-base percentage of 314, which isn't that bad.

01:17Lefties have gotten the best of him.

01:18Righties, not so much.

01:19But here's the issue.

01:20What are you trusting here?

01:21What's happened at the plate, or maybe he's being a little bit unlucky.

01:24Because if you look at the card today, there's 27 pitchers over the past 30 days with a minimum of five innings pitched here.

01:31Dylan Cease, out of those 27 pitchers, Ben, he's number two on the card in XFIP here.

01:3728 in the third innings pitched, an ERA of 4.45, which isn't good.

01:41But look at that XFIP number, 2.42.

01:44Absolutely spectacular.

01:45So it's one of those times where, yes, the Dodgers on an even money split.

01:49Why don't you just go with the Dodgers?

01:50But I do think the better pitchers on the mound here with the Padres, and that's probably the way I'll lean in this one today,

01:55just because I don't have a big backlog here on Sauer, where I know Cease can turn it up with the strikeouts.