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00:00Mr. President, nuclear missiles will strike our country in 14 minutes.
00:06I know it's your first day in office, so I'm going to walk you through it,
00:09but you're the only one who can authorize our nuclear retaliation in response,
00:13and you've only got a few minutes to make a decision.
00:16As you know, tensions have escalated rapidly in the past few days.
00:19Today's Joint Allied Aerial Defense exercise began just minutes before we detected the launch.
00:24A simple misunderstanding, maybe.
00:25We assume the sudden attack is meant to neutralize as many of our nuclear forces as possible.
00:31But that doesn't matter now. Missiles are in the air, and we can't shoot all of them down.
00:35Why? Because intercontinental ballistic missiles are basically rockets launched into space
00:40before re-entering the atmosphere over their target and releasing many different warheads,
00:46higher and faster than anything you can send after them.
00:49We need to get you to the bunker.
00:51Here's what we know.
00:57Four minutes ago, our new infrared monitoring satellites detected 112 bursts
01:02consistent with ICBM launches from the enemy's inner territories.
01:05For some reason, only 20 of their 80 underground nuclear silos seem to have fired,
01:10so we suspect most of them were transporter erector launchers.
01:13You know, trucks with big missiles on them.
01:15It's unclear why they didn't use all their silos.
01:18They might just not work after more than 30 years, or they might be keeping them in reserve.
01:23The fog of war is keeping many things unclear.
01:26Aerospace Command thinks the ICBMs are targeting our nuclear command centers, silos,
01:31and major air force and navy bases, ending this war before we have a chance to act.
01:36The enemy's strategic doctrine prioritizes military targets and our nuclear weapon systems,
01:41but their secondary targets are our industry and infrastructure,
01:45all refineries, power stations, and deep water ports,
01:48all located near or in major population centers.
01:53We won't know the exact casualty count for a few weeks.
01:57Deaths from the blast and burns may be a few million today.
01:59It's morning rush hour, and there's not much to be done for people stuck in traffic.
02:04People in major metro areas can't really evacuate,
02:06but emergency broadcasts are being sent out to shelter in place and away from windows.
02:11Radiation exposure for intact population centers is highly dependent on the weather over the next week.
02:16We might be looking at dozens of millions of deaths by the end of the month.
02:20For the next few minutes, we can still respond.
02:23But you need to decide.
02:26We've got 1,500 warheads across our silos, bombers, and submarines.
02:30The 400 in silos need to be launched now before they get taken out.
02:3446 nuclear-capable bombers on high alert can be ready to take off in two minutes,
02:38though we need to transmit the order right away to get them out of the blast radius if you want to consider using them.
02:44Of our 40 nuclear submarines, 5 are presently at sea.
02:47While they're submerged, they're undetectable,
02:49so that's our backup for a nuclear retaliation if we lose our silos and bombers.
02:53We could try to use them to bomb out their remaining silo fields before they can launch them.
02:57The sooner you commit to it, the better the chance we have of preventing a further exchange after our retaliation.
03:05Updates
03:05We have radar confirmation that the enemy ICBMs have completed their burn and deployed their warheads.
03:11Our best guess is that each missile will deploy at least six re-entry vehicles, about 600 in total,
03:18which is the part that carries a warhead back into the atmosphere during its terminal descent onto the target,
03:23and with many more decoys on top of that, infatible balloons meant to waste any anti-missiles.
03:28We're now tracking nearly 4,000 potential targets.
03:32Our anti-ballistic missiles have been launched, and we'll begin their intercept in another minute.
03:36We'll do our best to protect the capital, although there really is no defense.
03:41Wait! Confirming a partial radar blackout, our systems seem to be glitchy.
03:47The enemy must have anticipated we'd launch our interceptors and pre-detonated a few warheads at high altitude.
03:53That ionizes the atmosphere and creates radar interference.
03:56Our interceptors should still operate okay.
03:58They've had a 55% success rate in tests, but never with this many decoys or with radar interference this intense.
04:04We might shoot down 50 objects, but there's no guarantee they're warheads.
04:09It looks like most bombs are going to get through.
04:11This is our last chance to counterattack. We're out of time.
04:15Our silo launch sequence takes 5 minutes.
04:17We have to transmit and confirm a launch order,
04:19and the missile needs time to clear the blast radius of the incoming bomb.
04:23This is a lot to take in, but the war plan is made.
04:26You just need to enter the launch authorization codes and push this button to transmit them.
04:31You can't do anything else to save more of our people.
04:33If you don't launch now, then this war will be over before it even begins.
04:37You understand? This is our one chance, right?
04:41The effect?
04:43Enemy civilian casualties are hard to estimate, but should be similar to ours.
04:47A few million right away, perhaps a few tens of million by the end of the month.
04:50The total fallout from their attacks and ours might trigger a nuclear winter,
04:55potentially killing billions around the world,
04:58but that might happen even if we don't retaliate.
05:00I'm sure you have questions, but you have to give orders without expecting answers right now.
05:05With an attack of this scale, there's no guarantee communications or assets will be intact in a few minutes.
05:10We're out of time.
05:12We need a decision, sir.
05:13Nuclear wars aren't regular wars.
05:22They only last minutes, and in times of crisis, small conflicts can rapidly spiral out of control.
05:28Anything from small communication lengths to sensor errors to just uncertainty in the fog of war
05:33mean that no leader will ever have a complete idea of what's happening as a crisis unfolds.
05:37When tensions are high, accidents or misunderstandings can steer leaders,
05:42even those with good intentions, to launch a nuclear attack.
05:46Confused and with incomplete information, a single person,
05:49yes, it's really just one single person who decides,
05:53can literally make civilization-ending decisions,
05:55killing hundreds of millions of people in the time it takes to watch a YouTube video.
06:00This story is fiction, but the world came very close to this several times.
06:04In 1995, Russian radar detected a submarine-launched missile,
06:08and their nuclear forces went on full alert,
06:11except it was actually a scientific rocket to study auroras.
06:14In 1979, U.S. computers reported a full-scale Soviet attack with only minutes to respond,
06:20except it was a training tape being incorrectly loaded into a computer.
06:24In 1983, the Soviet satellite alert system showed five ICBMs launched from the U.S.,
06:30but it was a false alarm caused by sunlight reflected on clouds.
06:34During the Cuban Missile Crisis, a Soviet submarine with no contact to Moscow for several days
06:39concluded that nuclear war had begun and decided to launch a nuclear torpedo.
06:43Luckily, the authorization of three officers was required.
06:47One of them, Vasily Archipov, opposed it.
06:50But what if he hadn't?
06:52Any safeguard can fail, no matter how carefully designed it might be.
06:55And decisions are being made right now to build new weapons and missile systems
07:00that commit the world to another century of nuclear stalemate,
07:03complicated further by China's emergence as a new nuclear superpower.
07:08Simply accepting that the existence of nuclear weapons is inevitable
07:11might mean their use is inevitable.
07:13But the world doesn't have to be this way.
07:17Even incremental stabs taking apart one bomb at a time
07:19will eventually result in a world with none.
07:23During the Cold War, the world had over 70,000 nuclear weapons.
07:27Through arms reduction treaties, that number is now about 12,500.
07:32Progress is not guaranteed, but it's also not impossible.
07:36Governments and militaries are not separate from their nations.
07:39They're part of them, just like you.
07:42You have the power to make demands of your leaders,
07:44and often this begins with just being aware of an issue.
07:47If you want to learn more, we've compiled a number of resources for you
07:50in the video description and our sources.
07:54This video was supported by Open Philanthropy.
07:56Did you know that there are countless more Kurzgesart videos
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08:03Bite-sized information, animated facts, and inspiring thought experiments.
08:06After all, you also need videos you can watch quickly in a bathroom break,
08:10our longer, more in-depth videos are happening here on YouTube.
08:13Short form is a completely different challenge
08:14that we're trying to do as well as possible.
08:16Check them out if you're curious.
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08:20with other like-minded people,
08:22why don't you check out our Discord community with over 80,000 burbs?
08:25We have channels where you can chat about STEM topics,
08:28participate in events, and the academic question of the week.
08:31And we have the best emotes.
08:33After all, we want to spark your curiosity,
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08:37See you over there.
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