How_A_Nuclear_War_Will_Start_-_Minute_by_Minute(360p)

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00:00Mr. President, nuclear missiles will strike our country in 14 minutes.

00:06I know it's your first day in office, so I'm going to walk you through it,

00:09but you're the only one who can authorize our nuclear retaliation in response,

00:13and you've only got a few minutes to make a decision.

00:16As you know, tensions have escalated rapidly in the past few days.

00:19Today's Joint Allied Aerial Defense exercise began just minutes before we detected the launch.

00:24A simple misunderstanding, maybe.

00:25We assume the sudden attack is meant to neutralize as many of our nuclear forces as possible.

00:31But that doesn't matter now. Missiles are in the air, and we can't shoot all of them down.

00:35Why? Because intercontinental ballistic missiles are basically rockets launched into space

00:40before re-entering the atmosphere over their target and releasing many different warheads,

00:46higher and faster than anything you can send after them.

00:49We need to get you to the bunker.

00:51Here's what we know.

00:57Four minutes ago, our new infrared monitoring satellites detected 112 bursts

01:02consistent with ICBM launches from the enemy's inner territories.

01:05For some reason, only 20 of their 80 underground nuclear silos seem to have fired,

01:10so we suspect most of them were transporter erector launchers.

01:13You know, trucks with big missiles on them.

01:15It's unclear why they didn't use all their silos.

01:18They might just not work after more than 30 years, or they might be keeping them in reserve.

01:23The fog of war is keeping many things unclear.

01:26Aerospace Command thinks the ICBMs are targeting our nuclear command centers, silos,

01:31and major air force and navy bases, ending this war before we have a chance to act.

01:36The enemy's strategic doctrine prioritizes military targets and our nuclear weapon systems,

01:41but their secondary targets are our industry and infrastructure,

01:45all refineries, power stations, and deep water ports,

01:48all located near or in major population centers.

01:53We won't know the exact casualty count for a few weeks.

01:57Deaths from the blast and burns may be a few million today.

01:59It's morning rush hour, and there's not much to be done for people stuck in traffic.

02:04People in major metro areas can't really evacuate,

02:06but emergency broadcasts are being sent out to shelter in place and away from windows.

02:11Radiation exposure for intact population centers is highly dependent on the weather over the next week.

02:16We might be looking at dozens of millions of deaths by the end of the month.

02:20For the next few minutes, we can still respond.

02:23But you need to decide.

02:26We've got 1,500 warheads across our silos, bombers, and submarines.

02:30The 400 in silos need to be launched now before they get taken out.

02:3446 nuclear-capable bombers on high alert can be ready to take off in two minutes,

02:38though we need to transmit the order right away to get them out of the blast radius if you want to consider using them.

02:44Of our 40 nuclear submarines, 5 are presently at sea.

02:47While they're submerged, they're undetectable,

02:49so that's our backup for a nuclear retaliation if we lose our silos and bombers.

02:53We could try to use them to bomb out their remaining silo fields before they can launch them.

02:57The sooner you commit to it, the better the chance we have of preventing a further exchange after our retaliation.

03:05Updates

03:05We have radar confirmation that the enemy ICBMs have completed their burn and deployed their warheads.

03:11Our best guess is that each missile will deploy at least six re-entry vehicles, about 600 in total,

03:18which is the part that carries a warhead back into the atmosphere during its terminal descent onto the target,

03:23and with many more decoys on top of that, infatible balloons meant to waste any anti-missiles.

03:28We're now tracking nearly 4,000 potential targets.

03:32Our anti-ballistic missiles have been launched, and we'll begin their intercept in another minute.

03:36We'll do our best to protect the capital, although there really is no defense.

03:41Wait! Confirming a partial radar blackout, our systems seem to be glitchy.

03:47The enemy must have anticipated we'd launch our interceptors and pre-detonated a few warheads at high altitude.

03:53That ionizes the atmosphere and creates radar interference.

03:56Our interceptors should still operate okay.

03:58They've had a 55% success rate in tests, but never with this many decoys or with radar interference this intense.

04:04We might shoot down 50 objects, but there's no guarantee they're warheads.

04:09It looks like most bombs are going to get through.

04:11This is our last chance to counterattack. We're out of time.

04:15Our silo launch sequence takes 5 minutes.

04:17We have to transmit and confirm a launch order,

04:19and the missile needs time to clear the blast radius of the incoming bomb.

04:23This is a lot to take in, but the war plan is made.

04:26You just need to enter the launch authorization codes and push this button to transmit them.

04:31You can't do anything else to save more of our people.

04:33If you don't launch now, then this war will be over before it even begins.

04:37You understand? This is our one chance, right?

04:41The effect?

04:43Enemy civilian casualties are hard to estimate, but should be similar to ours.

04:47A few million right away, perhaps a few tens of million by the end of the month.

04:50The total fallout from their attacks and ours might trigger a nuclear winter,

04:55potentially killing billions around the world,

04:58but that might happen even if we don't retaliate.

05:00I'm sure you have questions, but you have to give orders without expecting answers right now.

05:05With an attack of this scale, there's no guarantee communications or assets will be intact in a few minutes.

05:10We're out of time.

05:12We need a decision, sir.

05:13Nuclear wars aren't regular wars.

05:22They only last minutes, and in times of crisis, small conflicts can rapidly spiral out of control.

05:28Anything from small communication lengths to sensor errors to just uncertainty in the fog of war

05:33mean that no leader will ever have a complete idea of what's happening as a crisis unfolds.

05:37When tensions are high, accidents or misunderstandings can steer leaders,

05:42even those with good intentions, to launch a nuclear attack.

05:46Confused and with incomplete information, a single person,

05:49yes, it's really just one single person who decides,

05:53can literally make civilization-ending decisions,

05:55killing hundreds of millions of people in the time it takes to watch a YouTube video.

06:00This story is fiction, but the world came very close to this several times.

06:04In 1995, Russian radar detected a submarine-launched missile,

06:08and their nuclear forces went on full alert,

06:11except it was actually a scientific rocket to study auroras.

06:14In 1979, U.S. computers reported a full-scale Soviet attack with only minutes to respond,

06:20except it was a training tape being incorrectly loaded into a computer.

06:24In 1983, the Soviet satellite alert system showed five ICBMs launched from the U.S.,

06:30but it was a false alarm caused by sunlight reflected on clouds.

06:34During the Cuban Missile Crisis, a Soviet submarine with no contact to Moscow for several days

06:39concluded that nuclear war had begun and decided to launch a nuclear torpedo.

06:43Luckily, the authorization of three officers was required.

06:47One of them, Vasily Archipov, opposed it.

06:50But what if he hadn't?

06:52Any safeguard can fail, no matter how carefully designed it might be.

06:55And decisions are being made right now to build new weapons and missile systems

07:00that commit the world to another century of nuclear stalemate,

07:03complicated further by China's emergence as a new nuclear superpower.

07:08Simply accepting that the existence of nuclear weapons is inevitable

07:11might mean their use is inevitable.

07:13But the world doesn't have to be this way.

07:17Even incremental stabs taking apart one bomb at a time

07:19will eventually result in a world with none.

07:23During the Cold War, the world had over 70,000 nuclear weapons.

07:27Through arms reduction treaties, that number is now about 12,500.

07:32Progress is not guaranteed, but it's also not impossible.

07:36Governments and militaries are not separate from their nations.

07:39They're part of them, just like you.

07:42You have the power to make demands of your leaders,

07:44and often this begins with just being aware of an issue.

07:47If you want to learn more, we've compiled a number of resources for you

07:50in the video description and our sources.

07:54This video was supported by Open Philanthropy.

07:56Did you know that there are countless more Kurzgesart videos

07:59that we upload on TikTok, YouTube Shorts, and Instagram Reels?

08:03Bite-sized information, animated facts, and inspiring thought experiments.

08:06After all, you also need videos you can watch quickly in a bathroom break,

08:10our longer, more in-depth videos are happening here on YouTube.

08:13Short form is a completely different challenge

08:14that we're trying to do as well as possible.

08:16Check them out if you're curious.

08:18And if you want to discuss and share your thoughts about science

08:20with other like-minded people,

08:22why don't you check out our Discord community with over 80,000 burbs?

08:25We have channels where you can chat about STEM topics,

08:28participate in events, and the academic question of the week.

08:31And we have the best emotes.

08:33After all, we want to spark your curiosity,

08:34but it's always more fun to be curious together.

08:37See you over there.

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