Politics is heating up in Bihar ahead of the upcoming assembly elections. In the latest political googly from the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), the party is advocating its party supremo, Chirag Paswan, to contest the assembly elections in Bihar.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00Hello and welcome to yet another edition of the political stock exchange and these numbers
00:06come in from the state of Bihar. It's our tracker which we have been observing over the past couple
00:13of months and the big question right now is who's the most popular face when it comes down to the
00:18chief minister. All of that and more but first up allow me to take you through the headlines.
00:22Kamal Hassan in Karnataka high court on film thug life ban. Kannada groups against screening of
00:31Kamal's film. Backlash on Tamil brought Kannada remark. Cash for congress workers. No funds for
00:42Janata. Karnataka government 7.65 crore dole for congress workers but guarantee scheme
00:47beneficiaries waiting. Multiple opinions coming in from the congress. After Tharoor now Salman
01:01Kursheed takes on congress for politicizing national security asks is it so difficult to be patriotic.
01:0830 years in jail for convict of Tamil Nadu University sex assault. Convict Gnans Shekharan
01:20to serve 30 years in jail without remission and pay penalty of 90,000.
01:29A garbage cover-up caught in camp on camera. Converted tourist spot in Kassol turns into a
01:36dump yard. Four days after viral video shows garbage piling up in forests. Now a cover-up in the Parvati
01:42Valley.
01:48Well four months to go for Bihar poll. Sources say two to three phase Bihar polls likely poll
01:54dates won't clash with Chhat Puja or Diwali. EC exercising caution on Bihar voters list to avoid
02:00Delhi-Maharashtra-like voter list drought.
02:07Zelensky hails Operation Spiderweb says Russia's losses will force Vladimir Putin towards diplomacy.
02:22All eyes on Bihar.
02:24All eyes on Bihar.
02:30All eyes on Bihar.
02:33Four months to state polls.
02:43Election Commission looking at a two- to three-phase election.
02:48Politics heating up.
02:50The latest political googly from the LJP, the Lokjan Shakti party Ram Vilas advocating
03:00its party supremo Chirag Paswan to contest the upcoming assembly elections in Bihar
03:08and that too not from a reserved but a general seat.
03:13His party pushing the narrative that Chirag not just a Dalit leader
03:18and should contest the assembly elections, indicating he is eyeing the chief minister's post.
03:27The NDA has already declared the upcoming Bihar elections will be fought
03:32under the leadership of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, something even echoed by Chirag himself.
03:40So what explains the Chirag for CM narrative spun by his own party?
03:46Chirag Paswan's Bihar bid, pressure tactics on BJP or BJP strategy to replace Nitish?
03:57Political Stock Exchange on India Today.
04:03All right, along with that question, our tracker has recorded in the Political Stock Exchange
04:08some startling numbers, especially when it comes down to the preferred chief ministerial candidate,
04:14more so on how the people of Bihar are perceiving the performance of their own state government.
04:22Before we dive into our first question on the Political Stock Exchange,
04:25let me quickly take you through our political panelists.
04:27We're going to be taking us through and deciphering these numbers.
04:31So what we've done, viewers, is how we are gauging this metric where Bihar is concerned in terms of popularity.
04:58We have split it in three months.
05:01So February of 2025, what was the popularity of the government and certain leaders?
05:08We give you those figures.
05:10Then April, what those figures are, and now tracking the same figures in May.
05:15Has there been a change at all?
05:18Let me quickly, first up, before we dive into our first question,
05:21cut across to Amitabh Tiwari, as well as we have Sanjay Kumar with us,
05:26our other two guests joining us shortly.
05:28Amitabh Tiwari, big questions coming to the fore.
05:31One of the most interesting, of course, before we get into the numbers,
05:36is the case of Chirag Paswan.
05:37Chirag Paswan, till about two weeks ago, himself seemed to suggest
05:41that the NDA fighting this election under Nitish Kumar
05:45and now his own political party spinning a completely different narrative,
05:49practically projecting him as CM candidate.
05:51Chirag Paswan clearly realises the fact that in a post-Nitish era,
05:59there is going to be a leadership vacuum, not only at the state level,
06:03but in the NDA itself.
06:04With BJP piggybacking on JDU for almost 20 years now,
06:09what has also happened at the BJP also does not have a pan-state leader with mass appeal.
06:15So, he is trying to position himself for a future role and pitch himself directly versus Tejasvi Yadav.
06:23See, one is also a battle of regaining the past glory of LGBT.
06:28There are two very contrasting trends for LGBT.
06:32Its performance in the Vidhan Sabha elections has been deteriorating since its foundation.
06:38It bagged close to 12% vote share in 2005 and won 29 seats.
06:45Now, it has just one seat with almost 6% vote share.
06:50So, on a standalone basis, it is not able to do much.
06:54But in alliance with BJP or GDU, in the looks of our elections,
06:59it tends to do well because it has this pocket of 5-6% Paswan-Dusad community vote share.
07:06But his announcement to contest the elections does bring in an unease, eerie unease in JDU
07:15because last time he contested or put up candidates only against JDU
07:20and led to the defeat of almost 33 candidates of JDU.
07:25So, the weakening of the JDU, allegedly also at or ostensibly also at the behest of BJP,
07:32did result in Nitish Kumar weakening.
07:35And there is also a reason for this rift between LJP and JDU is that LJP used to have 11-12% vote share
07:45of the Dalit community.
07:47After Nitish came to power, the creation of the Maha Dalit category left only 6% of Paswan-Dusad Samaj
07:55in the Dalit category, which has just halved the vote share of Chirag Paswan's party
08:01and is trying to, by contesting or by announcing or by as per reports that he would contest from a general seat,
08:09he's also trying to now project that he is a leader of various caste and communities.
08:14I'm not...
08:14True, not just the leader of the Dalits because that is at least what his party is projecting,
08:18something that was tweeted out by his brother-in-law as well.
08:20But I want to bring in Dr. Manisha Priyam very quickly before we dive into our numbers and Sanjay Kumar.
08:26But Dr. Priyam, for somebody who knows Bihar a little more than most of us,
08:31especially where the latest news coming in of Chirag Paswan's party now is trying to spin a narrative,
08:38how much do you think?
08:39Because there are two ways of looking at it.
08:40One, of course, you know, that the BJP trying to prop up this narrative
08:46to basically make sure that Nitish Kumar is replaced.
08:51So, you know, there are many narratives, but let me tell you, there is one dominant narrative.
08:59And that narrative is that this election is being fought under the dominant political leadership
09:05of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
09:07Now, everybody is talking about the Madhubani rally, but let me give you the nuances.
09:12I have met people who were attending a wedding in Patna.
09:17And this was the wedding of a Bhumihar leader's son.
09:21The Prime Minister was attending a wedding as a local Neta would.
09:24The Prime Minister himself took a Karikarta meeting of just about 70 people in closed doors.
09:32And I have interviewed people who attended that meeting, the BJP workers,
09:36and I can tell you how charged up they are.
09:38So the main narrative is the one that is not up for discussion.
09:41These are all side narratives.
09:43And I can tell you, Chirag Paswan's jostling today and saying,
09:47I may be chief minister, etc.
09:48He also knows in his heart of hearts.
09:50He was thrown out of Ramilas Paswan's house.
09:53He still came back and said,
09:55I am Hanumanji and I will serve my Lord Ram, etc.
09:59This is hardly the moment that he will go anywhere away.
10:02And given the feeble political situation of the JDU,
10:06given the very unstable, unfortunate health of the Honourable Chief Minister Nitish Kumar,
10:12this is not the time that the Prime Minister will allow Chirag Paswan to go straight on to attack Nitish Kumar and his political base.
10:21Rather, he will allow the young personality to play out.
10:25The important part is that the Prime Minister, by allowing Chirag Paswan,
10:29he is using one of the many cards in his pack,
10:32which is to show that he also has a charismatic youth leader who can attract.
10:36I would see him directed and targeted more towards Tejasui,
10:40who also projects himself as a young dynamic leader.
10:43And less on Nitish.
10:44Yes.
10:45Yes.
10:46That's how I look at it.
10:47Very interesting.
10:48Before we cut across to our first numbers, viewers,
10:51which is the preferred Chief Ministerial candidate of Bihar,
10:54and how the tracker has projected each of these political personalities
10:58through a course of February 25, April 2025 and May 2025,
11:03I want to bring in Sanjay Kumar, co-director, Lok Niti, CSDS and sophologist,
11:07because, Mr. Kumar, at one end, of course, is party affiliation and then is personality affiliation.
11:14How much does it matter in terms of vote if a particular personality does better than the others?
11:22Do people really vote on personality or party?
11:26See, personality alone does not ensure party's victory.
11:30There has to be a combination, a good personality or a personality which attracts vote,
11:35it attracts vote only and only if the party has a sizable support base.
11:39I think party still remains at the core of voters' choice.
11:42If you ask this question to the voters, whether in Bihar or any part of this country,
11:48and we have been asking this question, a very large number of Indian voters,
11:51just to cite the numbers, roughly 60 to 65 percent of Indian voters say
11:55they decide whom to vote for, keeping in mind the choice for the party.
12:01So, party becomes very, very important.
12:04Yes, leadership is also important, but leadership, if the party is sinking,
12:08even if there is a charismatic leader, he or she cannot pull votes for the party.
12:12All right, fair point.
12:15So, all right, let's, without further ado,
12:17immediately dive into our first set of numbers,
12:20and this is the most important viewers.
12:22The preferred chief ministerial candidate of Bihar.
12:25What do the people of Bihar feel four months from elections?
12:29And that's the interesting result that the political stock exchange survey has thrown up.
12:35Tejasvi Yadav was 40.6 percent in February.
12:39In April, he came down to 35.5 percent and seen a marginal 1.5 percent increase in May.
12:48So, this is what it looks like.
12:50Right under him, you have Nitish Kumar, the incumbent chief minister from the JDU.
12:55It fell to 18.4 percent in February.
12:58It fell to 15.4 percent in April.
13:01May was 18.4 percent.
13:03So, the popularity of the incumbent chief minister has actually fallen in April from February,
13:10but risen back to what the numbers were in February.
13:14Is 18.4 percent enough for an incumbent chief minister to fight an election in his name?
13:20That's the question mark there, where your opponent right now is standing at 36.9 percent.
13:27What's really interesting in all of this, viewers,
13:29is not so much as Chirag Paswan's number jumping from 3.7 to 5.8 and now 10.6.
13:35So, Chirag Paswan's popularity has clearly seen a rise.
13:39But look at Prashant Kishore, the JSP, February 14.9 percent,
13:45April all the way to 17.2 percent and fallen just a bit in May to 16.4 percent.
13:52So, Prashant Kishore, of course, making some amount of inroads to what he would claim is the youth of Bihar,
13:59the disgruntled, disillusioned youth of Bihar, or many would suggest.
14:03Now, you know, maybe pulling in some vote where the forward castes are concerned.
14:07BJP won't be very happy with their own deputy CM there.
14:11February 8.2, Samrat Chaudhuri, April 12.5 and now down to 6.6.
14:18So, that's a big fall and the gainers seem to be very clearly Chirag Paswan, an ally of the NDA.
14:25I want to bring in immediately Amitabh Tiwari too.
14:28With Amitabh Tiwari, what these numbers seem to suggest.
14:32We also have Yashwan Deshmukh.
14:34Let's get in Yashwan Deshmukh who's been tracking these numbers all the way from February.
14:38Yashwan Deshmukh, what do you make of these numbers of preferred chief ministerial candidate?
14:42They just were 40.6 percent, fell to 35, now gained about 1.5 percent more in terms of popularity.
14:50While Nitish Kumar, 18.4 percent and now still at 18.4 percent.
14:55Chirag Paswan, huge rise, Samrat Chaudhuri, huge fall.
14:59Prashant Kishore actually doing well.
15:00Well, numbers are stabilizing over a period of time, you know, because BJP has refused to give or promote any of their leader's name.
15:13We saw Samrat Chaudhuri's name going up and now it seems like that numbers, even for Nitish Kumar, I would say 18 percent is a tad low.
15:23Even though he is like declared candidate of NDA, it certainly tells us that even though he is declared, but he doesn't carry the kind of popularity that used to be in 30s and 40s, you know, 10 years back.
15:39So, something has changed and that change is clearly visible, as you just mentioned.
15:46Prashant Kishore has been taking off and still not crossing 20, but still, you know, getting a sizable chunk.
15:54What I am not very sure whether this popularity is going to change in votes and whether those votes will change in proceeds, that I am not very sure of.
16:02But Chirag Paswan's numbers certainly have even surprised me, because I have been marking that even, you know, before India-Pakistan issues happened, his numbers were growing slow and steady.
16:17And that is something which tells me that he is going to be there, because I haven't seen any reverse gear of sort as far as Chirag Paswan's numbers are concerned.
16:28Well, you're right there, because it's very interesting, because what a tracker really does is it gets you an understanding on how the people of Bihar are perceiving their leaders.
16:38And while you can see a steady and surprising rise where Chirag Paswan is concerned, within a matter of months, four to five months, he's jumped from a 3.7% to a 10.6%.
16:48So, a lot of people now are looking at him breaking the mold of just being a Dalit leader and possibly being a youth, you know, leader as well.
16:56And the dip in Samaraj Chaudhary, also interesting.
16:59I want to bring in Amitabh Tiwari and Dr. Manisha Priyan into this, because Dr. – because Amitabh Tiwari, before we go across to Manisha Priyan, it's interesting, because two, you know, big developments could add to it.
17:13Number one, of course, has been Operation Sindhur, and that seems to suggest in terms of the NDA faces doing better.
17:21Strangely, not Samaraj Chaudhary, though, but the allies or the government still doing better.
17:26But Nitish Kumar numbers stabilizing, rising from what at least it was in April, could also delve a little deeper into the caste census that the government announced.
17:35So, see, essentially, if you see, and despite Operation Sindhur, I would say, the combined rating of the NDA leaders has not moved much.
17:46It used to be around 34% in April, and it is currently at 35%, still lagging Tejasvi.
17:53The dip in Tejasvi is largely pocketed by Nitish Kumar, you can say, and to some extent by Prashant Kishore, if we compare with…
18:03Or Chirag Parswar.
18:04Or Chirag Parswar is largely benefiting, I think, from the Samaraj Chaudhary factor.
18:09Essentially, with NDA now sort of clearly indicating that the election would be contested under Nitish Kumar,
18:17his ratings seem to have jumped back to the FEV levels.
18:20That has led to a dip in Samaraj Chaudhary's prospects, as Yeshwan is saying, and we see a dip of 6-6.5%,
18:28leading to an increase of 6-6.5% for…
18:31Or rather, 4-4.5% for Chirag, because he has now decided to contest,
18:37and he is also now trying to be projected as the Dalit and the youth face of NDA to take on Tejasvi.
18:42What is also interesting is that if you compare with 2020, what is worrying for Tejasvi Yadav, despite him remaining at number one,
18:52is that in 2020, if I recall, both Tejasvi and Nitish Kumar were at 37-38% levels.
18:59So, the dip in Nitish Kumar's popularity ratings has not led to an increase of popularity for Tejasvi.
19:05It has been largely pocketed either by Prashant Kishore or by other leaders of the NDA.
19:12And the last point which I wish to make is that, of course, the vote share numbers are not there at this point of time,
19:19but the MGB is lacking a combined sort of a leadership,
19:25whereas NDA has a combined leadership of various castes and communities.
19:30Nitish Kumar chipping in with the Kurmi and the EBC Mahadalit,
19:34Chirag Paswan with Paswan's youth and Samrat Chaudhary with the Kohiri votes,
19:38whereas Tejasvi Yadav or MGB is largely restricted to Tejasvi Yadav.
19:44True. Because the other numbers of any other, you know, we were looking at the Congress
19:49and the other numbers of the Ghatbandhan and they don't really seem to be registering.
19:53So, you're very, you know, you're right there other than Tejasvi, who's really doing well.
19:57But Manisha Prem, what could be the reason for these numbers as per you?
20:00How would you read the data?
20:02If you read the political sociology of these numbers,
20:05it's very, very interesting to see that Samrat Chaudhary, who's a Kushwaha leader,
20:10who was pitched by the BJP on an anti-Nitesh pitch,
20:14remember, Nitish Kumar also represents the powerful OBC-Kurmi community.
20:19Its icon today is Sardar Patel, surprisingly.
20:22That vote should have gone to a Gujarat-led leadership of the BJP.
20:26But the BJP tried to counter that by the Kushwaha leadership invested in Samrat Chaudhary.
20:32You can see that in the Kurmi-Kushwaha battle,
20:36it's still the Kurmis who seem to be very, very intact.
20:39Therefore, Samrat Chaudhary will only consolidate some OBC votes for the BJP.
20:46He's not emerging over time as a charismatic leader for the BJP.
20:50What this vote entirely tells you, that there is a space in Bihar as a whole,
20:56in general, for a charismatic youth leadership.
20:59And if you look across political parties,
21:02Tejasui Yadav more or less remains intact from 40 to 37,
21:07is not such a great dip.
21:09You can see Prashant Kishore going up,
21:11but what you can really see is Chirag Paswan going up,
21:14which tells you that by promoting a youth icon figure,
21:19the BJP will tend to gain.
21:21Now, what does Chirag Paswan's face and his political party's lineage get you?
21:27Remember, the prime ministers played that political card and it's a gamble.
21:32Till now, the BJP was an upper caste party, an anti-Lalu party.
21:37It was also believed that they wouldn't ultimately side with the reservation walas.
21:42But today, the BJP has crossed over, given a Bharat Ratan to Karpuri Thakur,
21:46and said we will do caste census.
21:48So, the BJP is on a complete somersault.
21:51Getting Chirag Paswan has many advantages, remember,
21:56to be able to blunt this powerful caste image
21:59that the prime minister himself is propelling.
22:02So, it's a very good gamesmanship, multiple games equilibrium.
22:05Difficult to do more justice on this analysis, but more later.
22:09I'm very excited about these possibilities.
22:11Well, caste and youth, you're right there.
22:13But before I dip into our next set of data,
22:16I want to bring in quickly Mr. Kumar to weigh in on how he would decipher the numbers that he sees.
22:24And what is most surprising, I would reckon all four of you agree,
22:26it's the rise, even if though it's just about 10.6%,
22:30but coming in from a 3.7 to 10.6% is a sizable jump, Mr. Kumar, for Chirag Paswan.
22:37Yes, if we are looking at these numbers standalone, it is a sizable jump.
22:41But I have some unease about these numbers,
22:44because yes, Tejasvi stands way ahead of Nitish Kumar,
22:48but do I get a sense that Nitish Kumar is so unpopular, so unpopular,
22:53that Tejasvi's popularity is double than Nitish Kumar's popularity.
22:57My own sense is that, yes, Tejasvi might lead the race,
23:02but the kind of lead he is establishing in the survey,
23:06I have a little unease about that.
23:09Prashant Kishore, yes, you can see he is stabilizing,
23:13but the question which other panelist was asking,
23:18whether this will convert into vote share or not,
23:20we don't know, I have serious doubt about that.
23:23But yes, if you do a survey much before elections,
23:27and these surveys are done almost six months before election,
23:31you do get surprising results.
23:33Surprising means people who are already campaigning,
23:37and campaigning very hard, like Prashant Kishore.
23:41So they tend to get attraction, which is getting reflected in the survey.
23:45But as you come close to the day of election,
23:47you think he is going to lose this team.
23:49But interesting, but Ashwan Deshmukh,
23:51I want to get you into what Mr. Kumar said.
23:52Why do you see such a huge jump of over 20%,
23:56nearly 20% between Tejasvi, Yadav and Nitish Kumar?
24:00Is it because Tejasvi, Yadav is seen as,
24:03you know, the entire monolith of the Gatbandhan,
24:06where it is not fragmented,
24:07while in the others, you can see that fragmentation?
24:10Well, Priti, Sanjay Bhai is right.
24:12I mean, if we ask this question as a two-horse race question,
24:15you know, giving only the option of Tejasvi and Nitish Kumar,
24:19then obviously all the NDA numbers will rally behind,
24:23you know, Nitish Kumar.
24:24And that's where the numbers of Nitish Kumar
24:27probably will supersede or will be at par with,
24:30if not more than Tejasvi, Yadav.
24:32So, he is right.
24:34He is absolutely right.
24:35And the reason why Samraj Chaudhuri's numbers have gone down
24:38is also because of the fact that BJP actually took a lot of pains to say
24:45that, you know, nobody from our side is a face
24:49and it is only a face of Nitish Kumar.
24:51So, that has kind of, and please remember,
24:56last time the votes that Chirag Paswan polled were mostly the votes,
25:01the angry BJP votes, which did not want it to vote for JDU candidates.
25:06So, and he had given the candidates precisely against the JDU candidate,
25:10not against the BJP candidate.
25:12True.
25:12So, the fact that the BJP numbers, BJP decided that,
25:16okay, we do not want to have any horse from,
25:18directly from the BJP and supported Nitish.
25:21So, some of that BJP voter also rallied behind Chirag Paswan.
25:25At one point of time, before the India-Pakistan thing happened,
25:28actually, Chirag in our tracker almost touched 14%.
25:31And that was very surprising for me because earlier,
25:35Avita pointed out, you know, on Aasthak,
25:38that the maximum that LJP has ever touched
25:42is roughly about 12% in 2005 elections under Rabila's past month.
25:48So, they have the kind of traction about 10 to 12%.
25:52Right.
25:52But right now, I believe that it is the BJP's tailwind,
25:56which is kind of giving that kind of...
25:59Before we're going to go into the next set of data,
26:00one second, you know, we just want to...
26:02Before we file out of this,
26:03because it's important sometime to understand the data
26:05that we're putting out.
26:06And as all four of our experts just laid it out for you,
26:09when you look at it, it might look at this massive increase
26:12for Tejasvi Yadav.
26:13But Tejasvi Yadav, for the Mahagat Bandhan,
26:16if you seem to suggest, is one monolith figure
26:18where, you know, the likes of Congress
26:20really haven't registered anything noteworthy for us
26:23to even put it on the board.
26:24The others that you see is a clear division
26:27where the NDA is concerned.
26:28So, it was only, like Yashwan pointed out,
26:30a two-horse race between Tejasvi Yadav and Nitish Kumar.
26:34Possibly, you would have a Nitish Kumar fair better
26:37than a Tejasvi.
26:38So, important to understand the numbers there as well.
26:41But I want to quickly move on to our next two.
26:43And we're going to give out two back-to-back set of data
26:45coming in.
26:47One with the question on,
26:48what do people of Bihar feel or gauge
26:51in terms of the performance of their state government?
26:55Let's take you through those figures.
26:57Very much satisfied.
26:58The current percentage of that stands at 34.3%.
27:02It hasn't really, it's actually improved from February
27:05if you look at that marker.
27:06Satisfied to some extent, practically remains the same.
27:09Not at all satisfied is nothing really,
27:12much seemed to have changed on that account.
27:14So, net-net, you have, you know,
27:18same number of people who are satisfied
27:20and practically exactly the same number of people
27:22who are dissatisfied.
27:24Can't say remains practically the same.
27:26Satisfied to some extent is an important figure
27:29that you might want to look at
27:30in this particular data chart.
27:32Let's move on to our second set
27:34of questions that are coming in.
27:37Performance of the Chief Minister in Bihar.
27:40So, this is important.
27:41Performance of the Chief Minister
27:42will be Nitish Kumar's performance.
27:45From February to May,
27:47if you look at that marker,
27:48there's actually been a 2%,
27:502.1% increase there.
27:53Satisfied to some extent.
27:55Again, from 27.1% to 25.4%.
27:59Not a big jump, not at all satisfied.
28:01Remains just about the same.
28:0339.3% to 39.8%.
28:07Once again, I want to, you know,
28:09cut across to us, or let's bring in
28:10the other set of data.
28:11Performance of opposition in Bihar.
28:13So, we've given you how people perceive
28:16the performance of the state government.
28:18We've told you what Bihar people perceive
28:21the performance of the Chief Minister.
28:23Now, let's get on to the performance
28:24of the opposition.
28:25Very much satisfied.
28:27February, 35.1%.
28:28Now, that's a sizable jump there.
28:31It's 42.4% in May.
28:33Let's look at the not at all satisfied.
28:3630.5%.
28:3730.5% and then 30.1%.
28:39So, there's not much change in that.
28:42Satisfied to some extent.
28:4325.1% was in February.
28:46Now, that has come down to 17.4%.
28:50Can't say.
28:50Remains practically the same,
28:52which is 9.3%.
28:53And now, through the course to May,
28:55it's come to 10.1%.
28:58I want to cut across to our experts again.
29:01Amitabh Tiwari, how would you analyse
29:02this set of three questions?
29:04And what the respondents polled?
29:07If you see the question on satisfaction
29:10with the government performance,
29:14it's a tie.
29:15I mean, yes and no is a tie.
29:17Correct.
29:18It reminds us of the polarized,
29:20of the very competitive election we had in 2020,
29:24wherein the vote shares of both Mahagadbandan
29:26and NDA were almost tied.
29:28So, this somewhat or satisfied to some extent,
29:30this 29% people actually are going to decide
29:34who will form the next government.
29:36Because both sides are very much polarized
29:38and sort of fixed vote banks.
29:40This 29% is going to decide.
29:42The same trend continues
29:43when you move to the performance
29:47of the chief minister.
29:48But here, if you see,
29:49not at all satisfied is higher
29:51than very much satisfied,
29:53which indicates or which corroborates
29:54with the weakening of Nitish Kumar's position
29:57and his weakening from 37-38% in 2020
30:00to now 18-19%.
30:02So, there, the performance
30:04of the chief minister perhaps
30:06is lower than the performance
30:08of the state government.
30:10So, you can say that the BJP ministers
30:11or the alliance ministers
30:13are contributing to the satisfaction.
30:15And that is why we have more leaders
30:18from the NDA, Chirag, Baswan
30:20or Samrat Saudari
30:21also figuring in the top CM race.
30:24Now, when you go to the performance
30:25of the opposition,
30:27now we see that it has risen
30:30by about 7% in the past 3-4 months.
30:34So, we see people,
30:36around 7% people moving
30:38from satisfied to some extent
30:40to very much satisfied
30:42by the performance of the opposition.
30:44Whereas, the not at all satisfied
30:46is again fixed at 30%.
30:48Again, perhaps corroborating
30:50with the performance
30:51of the chief minister
30:52and the leaders combined,
30:54which is at 35%.
30:55So, this indicates that the...
30:58But these are very contradictory trends
31:01in that sense.
31:03Tejasvi Adha's rating is declining,
31:05though marginally,
31:07for this period.
31:08But the rating
31:09or the satisfaction
31:10with the opposition
31:11is actually increasing
31:13by 7%.
31:13And that's quite a fair bit
31:15of increase.
31:16But, you know,
31:17Yashwan Deshmukh,
31:17before I go, you know,
31:18to Dr. Manisha Priam,
31:20you know,
31:20I wouldn't read the data
31:22so badly
31:22where the government is concerned.
31:24If 29.4%,
31:25if you're even keen
31:26on, you know,
31:28very satisfied
31:29and not satisfied
31:30and you stand at 29.4%
31:32to satisfy to some extent,
31:33would look like
31:34a state
31:35which is not really looking
31:36at change.
31:37Because if you're somewhat satisfied,
31:38then you're satisfied.
31:39Well, yes and no.
31:43As Avitav just mentioned,
31:44I mean,
31:44this is something
31:45which can go either way.
31:47And also,
31:48on the opposition ratings
31:50going up,
31:51I have my assumption
31:52that probably
31:53a lot of people
31:55who are supporting Prashant
31:57also consider him
31:58as an opposition reader
31:59at this point of time.
32:01You know,
32:01I mean,
32:02he is to be counted
32:03not in the NDA block,
32:05but actually
32:05in the opposition block.
32:06Even though he's not part
32:08of the Mahagat Bandhan,
32:09that's fine.
32:10But as a stand-alone leader.
32:12What is interesting
32:14for me to observe
32:15in this entire thing,
32:16Priti,
32:17is that
32:18chief ministers'
32:20unpopularity
32:21is not that thing.
32:22But I am sensing
32:24a fatigue
32:25of sort
32:26with the chief minister.
32:29And surprisingly,
32:30I am also sensing
32:31that if BJP
32:32would probably
32:33have gone all alone,
32:34they might have
32:36actually have
32:37pulled it off,
32:37but they know very well
32:38that they cannot
32:39take the risk
32:40of Nitish going away
32:42and back to the
32:43Mahagat Bandhan.
32:44And that is where
32:44the arithmetic
32:45is going to take over.
32:47But yeah,
32:48I mean,
32:48whatever the numbers,
32:49positively you are
32:50looking at it,
32:51it is coming from
32:52the BJP's quota.
32:54Alright,
32:54okay.
32:55Dr. Manisha Prem,
32:56how do you look at it?
32:56Because yes,
32:57there is a contradiction.
32:58Very much satisfied
32:59with the opposition.
33:01Goes from 35.1%
33:03in February
33:04all the way
33:04to 42.4%
33:05in May.
33:06So, you know,
33:07and that's quite
33:08a significant jump.
33:09But when you look
33:10at the performance
33:11of the state government,
33:12it's even keel
33:13and mostly 30%
33:15satisfied to some extent.
33:18So,
33:18I think the first slide
33:20is the most important slide,
33:21not the one
33:22on the opposition,
33:22remember.
33:24In Bihar,
33:25it's the ruling
33:26combination
33:28that is being tested
33:30since 2005-6
33:32when power slipped
33:33out of the hands
33:35of Lalu Prasad Yadav
33:36and whatever combined
33:37he may have led
33:38at that point of time.
33:39That power has remained
33:41with Nitish Kumar
33:42and whatever combination
33:43he's led,
33:44in fact,
33:45including
33:45the Pied Piper
33:47of Hamelin
33:47having charmed
33:48the two sons of Lalu
33:50into his own fold.
33:52So, really,
33:53I would say
33:53that the first
33:55row that you have
33:56is the committed
33:58voter
33:59of Nitish Kumar
34:00saying very much
34:01satisfied, okay?
34:03So, that number,
34:04in fact,
34:05the buoyancy of it
34:06somewhat remaining
34:08within the
34:0930-34% range,
34:11not even touching
34:12the 35.
34:12Now, this tells you
34:14one thing
34:15that there is
34:16a committed Nitish vote
34:18and which is
34:19the reason why
34:19that the Prime Minister,
34:21despite the BJP
34:22Karakarta,
34:23you know,
34:24saying that
34:25we don't,
34:25we've been
34:26hemmed in
34:27by Nitish Kumar,
34:29not been allowed
34:29to perform, etc.
34:30The Prime Minister
34:31safely says
34:32put Nitish in front.
34:34You've seen
34:34many gaps,
34:35including in the
34:36recent visit
34:37of the Prime Minister
34:38in the performative
34:40aspects of the stage
34:41that he shares
34:41with Nitish Kumar,
34:42but he's keeping quiet
34:44because he knows
34:45where it lies.
34:46Now, the second one,
34:47somewhat satisfied
34:48to some extent,
34:49is largely
34:50the BJP
34:52saying it.
34:52It cannot say
34:53satisfied with
34:54Nitish Kumar.
34:54It can say it
34:56in private,
34:56but not publicly.
34:58Now, as far as
34:58Prashant Kishor is concerned,
35:00Prashant Kishor
35:01is a critic
35:02of role number one.
35:03Prashant Kishor
35:04does not attack
35:06the BJP.
35:07He attacks
35:08the Bihari leadership,
35:09which is Nitish Kumar.
35:11He attacks
35:11Tejasvi,
35:13and certainly
35:14it's not
35:14the Prime Minister
35:16or Amit Shah,
35:17etc.,
35:18who's up
35:18in the line there.
35:19So I would say
35:20Prashant Kishor's views
35:21are not represented
35:22in the middle column.
35:23The middle column
35:24is by and large
35:26a BJP
35:27voter saying this.
35:28But the third part
35:29also tells you
35:30that whether
35:31Nitish Kumar
35:32built roads
35:34beginning from
35:34Bihar to the moon,
35:36that last row
35:37will never say
35:38they are satisfied.
35:39So it's actually
35:40a committed voter
35:41of the RJD
35:41and it will remain there.
35:43So you read the numbers
35:44positively
35:45for the government?
35:47Yes.
35:48No,
35:48it's positively
35:49for the BJP
35:51and NDA alliance.
35:52That's what I'm saying.
35:53The alliance.
35:53The current incumbent
35:54government,
35:54which is the alliance.
35:55For the elections,
35:56positive.
35:57The opposition one
35:58is a little tricky
35:59and that I would explain
36:00at another round
36:01if you have questions.
36:03And the two charts
36:04are not to be summed up
36:05together, remember.
36:06Okay,
36:06I'm going to get into
36:07the next three set
36:08of questions,
36:09which is of course
36:09a macro level
36:10of questioning
36:12on what the voters
36:14or the respondents
36:15feel about Prime Minister Modi
36:17and the larger
36:19national opposition.
36:20But before that,
36:21I want to bring in
36:22Mr. Kumar.
36:23Mr. Kumar,
36:24if you're looking
36:24at these numbers
36:25which have been projected,
36:26it's interesting
36:27because we have
36:27Amitabh Tiwari
36:29who says
36:29there's a bit of
36:30a contradiction in numbers.
36:31Manisha Priyam
36:32looking at it positively
36:33where the incumbent
36:34government is concerned.
36:35How do you read
36:36these numbers?
36:36I think if you look
36:38at all the three
36:39or four tables
36:39and all the numbers,
36:40I do get a sense
36:41of the political divide
36:43in the state.
36:44If you look at,
36:45you know,
36:45whether it is about
36:46satisfaction of the government
36:47and satisfaction
36:48with the opposition,
36:49whether it is about
36:50chief ministers
36:51or on all the question,
36:53I get a sense
36:54of the political divide
36:55in the state
36:56and I think
36:57the state is heading
36:58for an interesting election.
36:59When I say
36:59interesting election,
37:00I mean a keenly
37:01contested election
37:02coming up
37:03in the next few months' time.
37:05All right,
37:06okay.
37:07Now let's quickly
37:08dive into our
37:09next set of data
37:10because we're running
37:10out of time
37:11where we,
37:12you know,
37:12now just pulling out
37:13a little
37:13from a macro lens,
37:15what did the respondents
37:16feel when asked
37:17about the performance
37:18of the Prime Minister
37:19and those figures
37:20coming in right there?
37:22Let's get the figures
37:23on performance
37:25of the Prime Minister.
37:26Very much satisfied.
37:2844 percent,
37:3044.4 percent
37:31in February
37:31all the way
37:32jumps to 48.7 percent
37:34in May.
37:35Not at all satisfied,
37:3629 percent in February
37:38comes down
37:38to 26 percent
37:40in May.
37:41So clearly
37:41a positive trend
37:42for the Prime Minister.
37:43A lot of that
37:44could be at the back
37:45of Opposition's
37:45Operation Sindhu.
37:47Performance of Rahul Gandhi
37:49very much satisfied,
37:5134.4 percent
37:53has come down
37:544 percent
37:55in May
37:55to 30.4 percent.
37:57Not at all satisfied,
37:5936.1 percent.
38:00Now that's
38:01a very marginal dip,
38:0235.4 percent.
38:03But the very much
38:05satisfied
38:05percentage
38:07has in fact
38:08dropped.
38:08Preferred Prime Ministerial
38:10candidate.
38:11Interesting there.
38:12Narendra Modi
38:1354.7 percent
38:15in February
38:16gains about
38:18a little less
38:19than 2 percent
38:20in May
38:20at 56.2 percent.
38:22Rahul Gandhi
38:2239.2 percent.
38:25Comes down
38:25quite a bit
38:26to 35.9 percent.
38:29Mind you,
38:29you know,
38:30if you put in
38:31all of this
38:31in context
38:32that Bihar
38:33is one of the states
38:34that Rahul Gandhi
38:34has visited maximum
38:35this year,
38:37he's actually going again
38:38this particular week.
38:39But the Prime Minister
38:40clearly gaining
38:41from February
38:43all the way
38:44to May.
38:45And I would reckon,
38:46you know,
38:47Yashvant Deshmukh,
38:48of course,
38:49Operation Sindhu,
38:50one of the major
38:51reasons for that
38:52and possibly
38:52even the announcement
38:53on the caste census.
38:56Both,
38:56hand in hand.
38:57It happened
38:57in the same period.
38:59But I would
38:59actually look at
39:00these numbers
39:01with exactly
39:02what Manisha
39:03explained
39:04in her comments
39:05earlier,
39:06that it's largely
39:08the buoyancy
39:09of the NDA numbers
39:10is because of
39:10the BJP
39:11and Prime Minister's
39:12popularity.
39:13Let's put it
39:14this way.
39:15You know,
39:15it's the,
39:16that's something,
39:17and we ask
39:18this question
39:18just to understand
39:19basically where
39:20they are standing.
39:21And when you look
39:22into Tejasvi Yadav's
39:23number and Rahul Gandhi's
39:24number,
39:25you tend to get
39:26the sense that,
39:27okay,
39:27there is a almost
39:2835,
39:2936% committed,
39:30committed anti-BJP
39:32vote,
39:32which are going
39:33to remain there,
39:34you know.
39:35And when you talk
39:36about only Nitish Kumar,
39:37you get to around
39:3835%,
39:39but the moment
39:40you put in
39:41Narendra Modi
39:42into the ring,
39:43you look at the
39:44possibility which is
39:45going beyond 50%.
39:46So that,
39:48that 20% thing
39:50is something
39:50which tells you
39:52or decodes
39:52what Manisha said,
39:54that it is
39:55satisfied to some
39:56extent in terms
39:57of CM and
39:58state government.
39:59But I'll come,
40:00you know,
40:00Yashma,
40:01can I ask you
40:01one quick question?
40:04Because of course
40:04this tracker is
40:05limited to February
40:062025,
40:07but if we look at
40:07the Lok Sabha
40:08elections last year,
40:09so the BJP
40:10and the Prime
40:11Minister seemingly
40:11gaining from that.
40:14Of course,
40:15yes.
40:15Because as you
40:16just mentioned,
40:17that caste census
40:17was one of the
40:18big things,
40:18no doubt about that.
40:19I think that is
40:21something which is
40:22driving that
40:24particular section's
40:25vote share probably
40:27towards them.
40:28And they are very
40:28meticulous in that
40:29planning.
40:30But Operation
40:31Sindhu and its
40:31aftermath,
40:32that is also
40:33contributed.
40:34Basically,
40:35it's not adding
40:36new votes.
40:37Please try to
40:37understand.
40:38Manisha would
40:38probably explain it
40:40better.
40:40It is just
40:41galvanizing what
40:43their support base is.
40:44It's not that they
40:45are adding new
40:46number to it
40:46and Bihar happens
40:48and remains to
40:49be a highly
40:50politically polarized
40:51state.
40:52But that 20%
40:53middle-of-the-ground
40:54voter is largely
40:55the BJP voter.
40:57Fair point.
40:57And you know,
40:58okay,
40:58Manisha,
40:58Dr.
40:59Prem,
40:59I'm going to
40:59bring you in
41:00on this.
41:00You know,
41:01if the BJP or
41:02the NDA is
41:02looking at these
41:03numbers,
41:03they'd be happy
41:04because they'd be
41:05hoping to
41:05consolidate on
41:06this in months
41:06to go.
41:08Yeah,
41:09I mean,
41:09you have to
41:09see the ground
41:10to understand
41:11this.
41:11You know,
41:12today,
41:12there's not a
41:14doubt in the
41:14fact that,
41:15and I had said
41:16this in an
41:16earlier political
41:17stock exchange
41:17when many people
41:18got back to me
41:19and said that
41:19I hadn't read
41:21the field well,
41:22etc.
41:23If you look at
41:24the ground,
41:24you have to
41:25realize that
41:26because the
41:27opposition led
41:28by Tejasvi
41:29Yadav and
41:30the RJD
41:31has not been
41:32able to take
41:34up cudgels
41:34with the BJP
41:36or with
41:37Nitish Kumar
41:38that the
41:40organizational
41:41efforts made
41:42by the BJP
41:43over the
41:45past decade
41:45today,
41:46the most
41:47charged up
41:48mood of
41:48Karekartas
41:49on the ground
41:49is that of
41:50the BJP,
41:51literally.
41:52So,
41:52you have
41:53fragments,
41:54and in fact,
41:54one of the
41:54parties we are
41:55not even
41:55discussing is
41:56the CPI
41:57ML and
41:58Deepankar
41:58Bhattacharya,
41:59etc.
42:00They work,
42:01but their
42:01presence is
42:02patchy and
42:03limited.
42:03They require
42:04the RJD
42:05to be able
42:05to scale
42:06up.
42:06The RJD
42:07itself has
42:08its own
42:08palace
42:08politics and
42:09coup.
42:10So,
42:11who's swaying
42:12the ground?
42:12It's obviously
42:13the BJP.
42:14Now,
42:14therefore,
42:16you know,
42:16these numbers
42:17tell you
42:18it's not
42:19just about
42:19the satisfaction
42:20with the
42:21central government
42:21or Operation
42:22Sindur.
42:23Those could
42:23be other
42:24matters.
42:24But if you
42:25look at it
42:25simply as a
42:26Bihari leader,
42:27who's there
42:27to counter
42:28the prime
42:29minister?
42:29That's what
42:29I want to
42:30understand.
42:30All right.
42:31Okay,
42:31very quickly,
42:31I want to go
42:32to Amitab
42:32Tiwari and
42:33Mr.
42:33Kumar,
42:34Amitab
42:34Tiwari,
42:34very quickly,
42:35sir.
42:37No,
42:37essentially,
42:38I mean,
42:38the prime
42:38minister's
42:39rating is
42:39a boost
42:40primarily
42:40because of
42:41Operation
42:41Sindur and
42:43the car
42:43census
42:43announcement.
42:44And Rahul
42:44Gandhi's
42:45numbers are
42:45falling because
42:46of the many
42:46gaffes he
42:47has made and
42:48the questions
42:48he has been
42:49asking about
42:49Operation
42:50Sindur.
42:50But as
42:51far as I
42:51understand,
42:52this election,
42:53BJP cannot
42:54win on the
42:54face of the
42:55prime minister.
42:56This election
42:56is a hyper
42:57local contest.
42:58It will be a
42:59seat-by-seat
42:59election.
43:00When the
43:00prime ministerial
43:01phase could
43:02not work in
43:02a Lok Sabha
43:03election overall,
43:04I don't see
43:04the prime
43:05ministerial
43:05phase being
43:06able to
43:07It's interesting
43:08because you
43:09know,
43:09Mr. Amitab
43:10Tiwari doesn't
43:11quite concur
43:11with at least
43:12on this panel
43:13with what
43:13Manisha Priyam
43:14is saying,
43:14but that's the
43:15beauty of
43:15numbers and
43:16how you read
43:16them.
43:17But interesting
43:18because that
43:19means we are
43:20in for an
43:20interesting election.
43:21Dr. Kumar.
43:22Satisfied to some
43:22extent also means
43:24dissatisfied to
43:25some extent.
43:26You're in the
43:27some extent
43:28right now.
43:29Amitab
43:29Tiwari is
43:30polling in the
43:31some extent
43:31for either
43:32ways.
43:33Priti, it
43:33depends on how
43:34you read the
43:35ground.
43:35And I'm a
43:36field worker
43:36perpetually.
43:38You're a
43:38field worker.
43:39Amitabh Tiwari is
43:40a man of
43:40numbers.
43:41So interesting.
43:42You know, this
43:42is going to be a
43:43classic conflict
43:44during the
43:46election coverage
43:47of Bihar.
43:48And we are
43:48hoping to have
43:49the both of
43:49you here.
43:50But interesting.
43:51Right now,
43:51Dr. Kumar,
43:52final words,
43:53sir.
43:53I need to go
43:53into a quick
43:53break.
43:54There's nothing
43:57surprising in the
43:58data about the
43:59popularity of
43:59Prime Minister
44:00Narendra Modi
44:00and Rahul Gandhi
44:01because whenever
44:02we have done
44:03the survey,
44:04whether you do
44:05it now or
44:06maybe six
44:06months before,
44:07Prime Minister
44:07Modi has always
44:09been ahead of
44:10Rahul Gandhi.
44:11This is a
44:12bipolar contest,
44:13not in terms of
44:13BJP and Congress
44:14in the state,
44:15but at least
44:15NDA and UPA.
44:17And this is not
44:18surprising that
44:18Prime Minister
44:19Modi is at
44:1950s and
44:20the mid-50s.
44:22Rahul Gandhi
44:23is in the
44:2330s.
44:24So this 20%
44:24gap you will
44:25find in many
44:26states.
44:26Very interesting
44:27because I just
44:27want to quickly
44:28go back to
44:29Yashwan Deshmukh
44:30before we go
44:30into a break.
44:31Yashwan Deshmukh,
44:31let me hark
44:32back to
44:32Lok Sabha
44:33elections at
44:34that point of
44:34time.
44:35What are these
44:36numbers then and
44:37how are these
44:37numbers now?
44:40Well, I would
44:40say it is
44:41status quo at
44:42this point of
44:42time.
44:43There is a
44:44fatigue,
44:44particularly among
44:45the BJP
44:46supporters for
44:47the Chief
44:47Minister.
44:48But at the
44:49same time,
44:49once the BJP
44:50has decided to
44:52go with
44:53Nitish Kumar,
44:54then as
44:55Manishati just
44:56said, that is
44:57all about the
44:58organizational
44:58strength.
44:59And more
44:59often than not
45:00in the last
45:0112 months,
45:01Priti, we
45:02have seen the
45:03organization at
45:04play from the
45:05BJP's side in
45:06so many states
45:08which both of
45:09us have written
45:10off earlier.
45:11So we know
45:13that organization
45:14We know very
45:15well, sir.
45:17I understand.
45:18So we are
45:18going to just
45:18let it be on
45:19that account
45:20and wait for
45:21the next round
45:22of numbers and
45:23our tracker to
45:24come in.
45:24I appreciate all
45:25four of you for
45:25joining us.
45:26So take it all
45:27with a pinch of
45:28salt, but this
45:28is the tracker.
45:29But if you
45:29really look at
45:30it, numbers
45:30don't really
45:31lie.
45:31It's not so
45:32much as what
45:33reporters might
45:34feel or the
45:35ground field.
45:36These are the
45:36numbers and one
45:37needs to dig in
45:38deeper to analyze
45:39what the numbers
45:39suggest and there's
45:40no better place
45:41than right here
45:42on India Today
45:43and the political
45:43stock exchange
45:44to do that.