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00:00Adam Kaplan is our NFL insider.
00:03He's been shrimp fishing in the Outer Banks,
00:06but he's back in Philadelphia now at the homestead
00:09getting ready to dole out today's preseason awards.
00:13You can follow him at Kaplan NFL.
00:16You see him on the grid.
00:17You see him on C2C every week.
00:19Thank God for that.
00:20You can follow him at Kaplan NFL.
00:22He's covered the league for 30 years.
00:24All right, the 25 preseason award winners.
00:26Some of these are included in player contract incentives.
00:32So some guys can get rich off of this stuff if they hit.
00:37So let's start with the AP MVP winner.
00:42Yeah, and by the way, this is one of them, Scott,
00:44that's recognized in contract incentives,
00:47particularly with quarterbacks.
00:48So Lamar Jackson, Scott, he is plus 500.
00:52He's got the shorter sides.
00:53He won it in 1923 for Pro Football Writers Association,
00:57which is the most detailed award list.
00:59I voted for Jackson to win it because, Scott,
01:01the thing is a lot of us have recency bias.
01:05Josh Allen was phenomenal in the second half,
01:07but it's a full season award.
01:09Regular season it is.
01:10We have to understand that.
01:11And the bottom line is Lamar was better for the totality of the season.
01:15Yes, Josh Allen was terrific.
01:17The second half of the season, he did win it for the first time.
01:19Josh Allen, by the way, is plus 600.
01:23Patrick Mahomes, who won in 2018 and 2022, is plus 650.
01:27Joe Burrow, plus 700.
01:29Jayden Daniels, by the way.
01:31Jayden Daniels is plus 850.
01:33And my sleeper, and I like this one because it's so long, the odds.
01:37Justin Herbert, and they've got him help, is plus 2,000 for the AP,
01:44AP MVP winner.
01:45I like that one.
01:46I like Herbert, plus 2,000.
01:48All right, so let me say this to you.
01:51You have said to me every year for six years that no one ever repeats in the
01:56NFC East.
01:57So that means that the commanders are going to win the division.
02:01And that means that in order to do that, Daniels is going to have a huge
02:05season.
02:06So I like him at plus 850.
02:08That makes sense to me because if they're going to do it,
02:12they got to do it inside their own realm, in their own division for him to be
02:16in the conversation for MVP because I'm sick and tired of, I got to be honest
02:20with you, Lamar Jackson, I don't deny he's a great player.
02:27I don't deny Josh Allen's a great player and deserve the MVP.
02:32I don't deny what Mahomes does.
02:34My point is that I think Lamar Jackson is a little overrated in terms of getting it
02:41done.
02:42He doesn't get it.
02:43I know it's a regular season where, but he never gets it done.
02:45All I hear about is how this guy's going to win every award and every Super
02:49Bowl and they never get it done.
02:51I think they're overrated.
02:53And I think the commanders have a shot to win the division.
02:57So what if the Ravens win the division?
02:58They don't win the Super Bowl.
03:00They don't even go.
03:01Yeah.
03:02Yeah.
03:02Yeah.
03:03Listen, Scott, I'll say this about Buffalo.
03:05One of the things that I struggled with last year was, okay, they're going to
03:10become more of a running team.
03:11They're going to limit Josh Allen's dropbacks.
03:15And look, that all worked.
03:16James Cook played way better than most people thought.
03:19But the big thing is they had to add help at receiver.
03:21They added Josh Palmer, I'm a big fan of, coming over from the Chargers.
03:25Elijah Moore is a good possession receiver.
03:27Khalil Shakir has been a good story to develop.
03:29You know how good they are at tight end.
03:31Who's to say that Josh Allen, who sometimes carries that team, can't win back to back?
03:35Lamar's done it before.
03:36Mahomes has done it before.
03:37It's a top-heavy quarterback group.
03:40You're talking about the elite, the best guys.
03:42There's no question about that.
03:43But on your point with James Daniels, let's look at it.
03:46What did they do in Washington?
03:47What did Adam Peters do, the general manager?
03:49He added Debo Samuel.
03:51He needed help at wide receiver.
03:52He did that.
03:53They had to rebuild the offensive line, which overachieved last season.
03:56They added Laramie Tunsil, a top-five left tackle.
03:59They re-signed Zach Ertz, who still had something left in tight end.
04:03They feel pretty good now about their offense.
04:06The odds at 850 are pretty good.
04:09You put up 100, you get 850 back.
04:11That's pretty darn good.
04:12I agree with you.
04:13But one of these days, and you could yell at me all you want, one of these days, Justin Herbert's going to play up to the hype.
04:21I believe it's going to be this season.
04:23I don't have a problem with Justin Orange-Sherbert.
04:27I think he's a really good player, and I think Harbaugh's a great coach, not even good.
04:32I think he's a great coach, and I expect them to do better.
04:37You know, he already made the playoffs.
04:39I think they're going to do even better in his second, third years in Lipstick City.
04:44Let's do the AP Offensive Player of the Year.
04:48Yeah, and I understand the Offensive Player of the Year is more a statistical award rather than a great all-around season.
04:54Saquon Barkley, who had the best season in NFL history if you go through the Super Bowl, right, in terms of total yardage.
05:03He is plus 500.
05:04He's got the shortest odds.
05:07Now, the second guy is interesting.
05:09You would think it would be Jamar Chase, who's plus 1,200.
05:13No, it's Jameer Gibbs of the Lions at plus 1,000, Scott, who's phenomenal.
05:18He puts up massive yardage in the run and pass game, lots of touchdowns.
05:23My pick this year, and he was good last year.
05:26He improved from his rookie season.
05:27He enters year three.
05:28He's B. John Robinson, the running back from Atlanta, at plus 1,200.
05:31Derek Henry, he got his contract extension, who was incredible last season.
05:36Scott, he turns 31.
05:38He's plus 1,400.
05:40But my pick would be B. John Robinson, who's a special back, at plus 1,200.
05:44I like those odds.
05:45See, the thing with Puka Nakua is he's plus 1,600.
05:49He's got Devontae Adams on the other side now.
05:51He's got a big injury history.
05:52When he plays, he's phenomenal.
05:53But he's been hurt a lot, Scott.
05:55He's been on the sidelines too much.
05:57So I want to see this J.J. fly off the handle and play for the Vikings.
06:02And if he is as good as they think he is, then I like those odds of Justin Jefferson at plus 1,600.
06:09If that quarterback is healthy and playing, he's got a shot to bust out.
06:14Because everyone knows he's really unguardable.
06:17Like when I think they haven't had a quarterback.
06:19So now, if this guy comes through like they think he will, I like those odds.
06:26All right, let's move on to the AP Defensive Player of the Year.
06:30Yeah, and this is one that Myles Garrett's always up there.
06:32He's got the shortest odds.
06:33It's plus 700.
06:35Now, Aiden Hutchinson, we'll get to in the second segment, the comeback player of the year.
06:40He's going to be everyone's favorite for that, most likely.
06:43He's also plus 700.
06:44Scott, he's coming off a compound fracture.
06:47Now, I know he's running.
06:48He's looking good.
06:49That's still a serious injury to come back from.
06:52Micah Parsons is at plus 750.
06:54They're still working on his deal.
06:56J.J. Watt, who's in his 30s now, plus 850.
06:59Max Crosby, who had all sorts of injuries, high ankle sprain and others, plus 1,100.
07:03The very underrated Will Anderson, edge rusher, who's been a terrific, plus 1,200.
07:09Nick Bosa, Bears, plus 1,500.
07:12My pick, Scott, is a guy who got double-teamed more than any defensive lineman in the National Football League last season.
07:20That's Jalen Carter, Scott.
07:22Jalen Carter is plus 1,800 with the Eagles.
07:25He is unstoppable.
07:27He's phenomenal.
07:28Everybody talks about Jalen Hurts and their offense and how great it is, Saquon Barkley.
07:32Jalen Carter, plus 1,800, and a great sleeper, dark horse here.
07:38Jared Verse, the edge rusher for the Rams.
07:40Terrific rookie season, plus 2,200.
07:43But I would go, my money would be on Carter at plus 1,800, then Jared Verse at 2,200.
07:51I'm flipping those.
07:53I like Verse to get it because I don't think they pay enough attention to him like Carter gets doubled and tripled
07:59because he's such a menace to society that he gets so much attention.
08:05I think Verse has been left to roam free and cause damage.
08:10And at that price, if I can hit that at 2,200, I'm loving life.
08:14I think he's an absolute freak.
08:16And by the way, Trey Hendrickson is still looking for his deal.
08:21It's plus 2,800.
08:22He's another player.
08:23He plays in anonymity.
08:25Why?
08:25Because everybody talks about Joe Burrow, who we talked about earlier.
08:28Those great receivers.
08:30Our guy Tee Higgins and, of course, Jamar Chase.
08:33Trey Hendrickson, one of these days, is going to get the great recognition that he deserves.
08:36One of the top two edge rushers the last two seasons.
08:39At plus 2,800.
08:41But again...
08:41Is he going to get a deal done?
08:43Is he going to get a deal done?
08:45It's gotten ugly.
08:46Here's what I'm going to tell you, Scott.
08:48We're in May.
08:49People worry about this stuff in May.
08:51It matters when you get to training camp in late July.
08:54I expect them to move on the number that they've already offered him.
08:59But the problem is, he's got a number in mind, and they're not close to it.
09:02And that's the issue right now.
09:03The cap in your ass is so popular that he gets text messages and tweets live during the show and in breaks.
09:15He's constantly answering fan mail in the middle of the show, in a break.
09:21And then he's got the tea going as well.
09:23All these things happen at the same time.
09:25It's like chewing gum as well.
09:27It's unbelievable.
09:29Adam Kaplan's many talents.
09:31What about the NFL Comeback Player of the Year award?
09:35Yeah, this is interesting.
09:36You know, Scott, I remember when Geno Smith was up for it, and people were like, wait a minute.
09:40Why would he get Comeback Player when he'd never done anything before?
09:43You know, when he broke out and came out of nowhere.
09:45To me, there also needs to be Most Improved, but they call it Comeback Player of the Year.
09:49The shortest odds are Dak Prescott at plus 275.
09:52Now, Scott, he's coming back from the hamstring injury where he ripped it off the bone.
09:56That was a major injury.
09:57You saw how their offense plummeted during their 7-10 season, so I could get why the sentiment is what it is, plus 275.
10:05I mentioned Aiden Hutchinson in our first segment, plus 300.
10:09Major injury, compound fracture.
10:11He's doing well.
10:12Christian McCaffrey.
10:14Do you believe he'll be great again with a broken leg, a compound fracture, broken leg, that he'll ever be the same player again?
10:21I know you could come back from it.
10:22Paul George had it as an NBA player.
10:24You could come back from it.
10:25He's running.
10:26He's doing well with it.
10:27He's going to be fine.
10:28They're pretty confident in it.
10:30Christian McCaffrey, by the way, plus 375 now, plus 370.
10:34He's a player, Scott, that worries me.
10:37He turns 29.
10:38You're talking about the back of the calf.
10:41That was a bad injury.
10:42He was rarely healthy last season.
10:45He's got to get that right.
10:46He's healthy now.
10:47He's never healthy.
10:48I don't like him at plus 370.
10:50Trevor Lawrence with a new head coach is going to call the plays at plus 500.
10:54Ratio Rice coming back from the ACL is plus 1,400.
10:57By the way, he's doing well in OTAs.
10:59He's coming back well.
11:01Tua Tunga by low with all of his injuries is plus 1,800.
11:03This one's interesting.
11:05Brandon Aiyu, plus 3,000.
11:08And he's coming off of ACL reconstruction for the ninth.
11:11Listen, I'm going to say, like, so I have my reservations.
11:15I think Hutchinson is a great player and compound fracture.
11:20I have my druthers, whether it's, you know, people can say all they want.
11:24Oh, he'll be fine.
11:25He's young and it heals and all this other stuff.
11:28You know what?
11:29I'll believe it when I see it.
11:30And especially in December and January, because they're a playoff team.
11:34I want to see what he looks like at the end of the season, not at the beginning of the season, how that leg holds up.
11:41And I think McCaffrey is the worst contract that I've seen in a long time.
11:47They gave that guy more money than God.
11:49And he never plays.
11:50Yeah, and they redid it.
11:54They're in a tough way, though.
11:55They're a tough way.
11:56By the way, speak of the Niners before we move on to the Offensive Rookie of the Year award.
12:01The Niners are still, at every book, they're still a slight favorite.
12:05They're a team that is ripe to be beaten in the NFC West.
12:09There's no question about it.
12:10All right.
12:11What about the AP Offensive Rookie of the Year?
12:15Yeah, Ashton Gentry, who's going to be everybody's favorite because it's Pete Carroll.
12:21It's Chip Kelly.
12:22They're going to run the ball.
12:23That's going to be the foundation of their offense.
12:24He's plus 250.
12:26Cam Ward, plus 250.
12:28The first pick over on this draft for the Titans at quarterback.
12:31Now, this one's fascinating, okay?
12:33Travis Hunter is getting odds on offensive defense for Rookie of the Year.
12:38He is plus 600 as a wide receiver, Scott.
12:42Now, that's the position they've got on record saying he's going to play more at least this season.
12:47So, you have to know that if you're looking at those odds.
12:50Ted McMillan, the first-round pick receiver for Carolina, is plus 1,300.
12:55My favorite here, I love this kid, Marion Hampton, the running back of North Carolina,
13:00who's a first-round pick for the Chargers at 1,400.
13:04And Tyler Shug, who, for my money, will win that starting job at quarterback for the Saints, is plus 1,500.
13:09But the easy call here, Scott.
13:12If you want one that's got the best chance of happening, and that's why the odds are short,
13:17is Jackson Jenty, because the offense, Scott, is not going to go through the quarterback's hands.
13:22It's going to go through Jenty and the run game, and he's plus 250.
13:26All right, let's go to the defensive rookie of the year.
13:33All right, this one's tough.
13:35Abdul Carter, you and I have talked about the injuries.
13:38He's fine.
13:39He's an edge rusher.
13:41The question is, how much is he going to play?
13:42Remember, Kayvon Thibodeau.
13:44He's got his fourth year, then the fifth year option, which they picked up.
13:49Carter's got to beat out Thibodeau this season, so he's plus 250.
13:53I don't like that one, because you just don't know how much he's going to play.
13:55But if he's a sub-packed rusher, which means you're not going to play this guy?
13:59Are you kidding me?
14:00They draft him, they're not going to play him?
14:02No, but the point is this, Scott.
14:04How much is he going to play?
14:06Because Thibodeau's not giving up that job.
14:08He's got to beat Thibodeau out.
14:09So Carter's plus 250.
14:10Travis Hunter, as a corner, Scott, has longer odds.
14:16He's plus 750, as, to make it clear, just a cornerback.
14:21Jalen Walker, the edge rusher for Atlanta, who will start, by the way.
14:24He is my top sleeper one.
14:26He's plus 900.
14:28Mike Cale Williams, edge rusher for the Niners, Jalen Walker's teammate at Georgia, is plus 1,000.
14:33Mesa Graham, the D-tackle for the Browns from the University of Michigan, is plus 1,600.
14:38Walker, Scott, the problem for Atlanta is, for years, under GM Terry Fontenot, he's not
14:45got a redded edge rusher.
14:47Jalen Walker's going to start, and he's got a very good chance for defensive rookie of
14:51the year.
14:51He really does.
14:53Travis Hunter, the problem is, Scott, you don't know how much he's going to play on defense.
14:59So, to me, he's got way longer odds.
15:02At cornerback, at plus 750, I don't see it.
15:05My sleeper, it's going to be Jalen Walker of the Falcons, at plus 900.
15:09All right, fair enough.
15:10I just have to ask you, so you're kidding me, right?
15:15Like, they're not going to play both of these guys?
15:18Like, I would find it.
15:19You know what I would do?
15:21Like, no matter what, I'd make him the kicker, the punter, the long snapper.
15:25I'd make him the wide receiver, the tight end.
15:28I'd make him the left tackle, the right tackle, the inside-outside linebacker, or the middle
15:32linebacker.
15:32You're kidding, right, that they're going to draft Abdul Carter, number three, and you're
15:38not going to play him?
15:39No, he's going to play.
15:41I didn't say he would play.
15:42I would play him and Thibodeau.
15:43And then if Thibodeau doesn't do it, I'd get rid of his ass, because he's done nothing
15:47with the Giants.
15:48Well, you got Brian Burns.
15:49Yeah, but you got Brian Burns on the other side, Scott.
15:51You know, teams don't usually play three edge rushers at the same time, but the bottom
15:54line is...
15:54He's a linebacker.
15:55Why not play him as linebacker?
15:57Scott, he's there to rush the passer.
16:00The bottom line is, their defense, Scott, has a chance to be elite.
16:04The problem is, Scott, and the over-runner total is five and a half.
16:08If you examine, Scott, their schedule, they actually might have a hard time, now that I've
16:13rethought it, of winning more than five games.
16:15If that guy's standing on the sideline, fire Shea to tables today.