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  • 5/19/2025
The true makeup of Philippine society versus the claims of the kakampwets:

- DDS - 40.1%
- Marcos loyalists - 15%
- Kakampwets - 13.6%
- None of the above - 31.4%

Read: https://tinyurl.com/4mvkkbfm

https://sabiniya.com
https://opinyonko.com
https://bayangpilipinas.com

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Transcript
00:00As the heated election season comes to a close, let's take a look at how the game of thrones between the two most powerful political families in the Philippines is shaping up.
00:12We're now joined by political strategist Alan German. Good morning to you.
00:17Good morning, Karen, and to all our viewers. What a wild and woolly race it has been.
00:22And a lot of unexpected twists and turns in the past week have really shook the electorate to the core.
00:31Some are celebrating, jumping up and down. Some are thinking out loud.
00:35But I think most of us are just scratching our heads and realizing that this might be signaling a change in our moods, temperature, and opinions.
00:47Okay. All right. So let's talk about this. A midterm election is supposed to be boring.
00:52That's one. But a midterm election is also supposed to be for the administration.
01:00That's what a midterm election is, right?
01:02Either they go full out, full slate, or like during the time of former President Duterte,
01:08gusto ko yung tatlo ko makapasok. Tolentino, Bongo, Bato, na pa number three niya si Bongo.
01:14Ganoon lang ang midterm.
01:15Yes. Maso flexing.
01:17It's so different. O-o, it's so different.
01:19Yung top five mo ay wala naman sa administration.
01:23Of course, Erwin Tulfo ran with the Alianza.
01:26But Erwin Tulfo is a Tulfo.
01:29He's his own man, yes.
01:30Ito na yun. They are their own brand.
01:32Kahit saan yung tumakbo mananalo, right?
01:36So what happened? What does this tell us?
01:39Well, it's very clear. Again, the term being always being overused and used is that the midterm elections are a referendum on the current administration.
01:49Gusto ba ng tao ang patakbo na administrasyon?
01:56Kalahati ng daan, we look back and we think, ano ba, okay ba tayo?
02:02Nasa magandang kalagayan ba tayo?
02:04Or we're satisfied with the way that the administration is running things.
02:08These elections only proved that that sentiment prior to coming into the elections, there was data that showed that President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.
02:19had a 25% approval rating, which was the lowest among the past four previous presidents coming into a midterms.
02:29And unfortunately for the administration, and perhaps fortunately for its critics, this data translated into tangible votes.
02:39Kaya nakita natin yung nangyari ngayon.
02:42So this is a clear warning sign, alarm bell for the current administration.
02:48Hindi natutuwa ang taong bayan sa pagpapatakbo.
02:53Gusto nila ng pagbabago.
02:55Kung hindi sa 2028, at least umpisa na natin sa midterms.
03:00This is a protest vote, plain and simple.
03:03A protest vote.
03:10Now, before I show you graphics that they're preparing, the last protest vote, and you can correct me, that I remember so dramatically was 2007.
03:21I remember.
03:23Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo was beleaguered with corruption as well, right?
03:27The ill-fated team unity, Karen.
03:30Yes, you're absolutely right.
03:31Team unity rin ba yun, yung kay GMA?
03:34Team unity ang tawag niya.
03:35Team unity.
03:36Together, everyone achieves more.
03:38Dalawa lang ang nakapasok.
03:39So isipin mo kay GMA nun, team unity.
03:42Kay, nagsimula si BBM at Sara, team unity din.
03:46Masyado ng gas-gas.
03:48Ito salitang team unity na to, ha?
03:50Binalisad lang.
03:51But let's go back a bit into history because 2007, Senator Antonio Trillanes was, I mean, of course, then he was still an officer, detained after the Oakwood mutiny, didn't come a day in his life na nalong senador.
04:08Number two.
04:08Yes.
04:09And that was the first definition of a protest vote.
04:12Yes.
04:13So again, that was the team unity days wherein we had the administration which was supposedly had the power of their machinery, had the local incumbents, had all of the resources of the sitting government at their disposal.
04:34Dalawa lang nanalo.
04:35So the same thing happened now with the administration actually forming a coalition.
04:41If you think about it, tama yung sinabi mo, Karen.
04:43Hindi naman lahat dyan hard and fast Marcos supporters.
04:48So they got fellows like the Tulfo, well, Irwin Tulfo, Manny Pacquiao, who are not really traditionally Marcos.
04:56So parang binolster nila yung brand nila.
05:00Pero ganito nangyari.
05:01Yung mga iba, hindi pa nanalo.
05:02And traditionally, again, going historically, I keep on saying traditionally, historically rather, the admin usually wins 8 to 10 Senate seats doing midterms.
05:14Apart from that outlier na binanggit mo kay PGMA, dalawa lang nanalo.
05:19So this one looks like it's going to be about five who are really solid alliance senators.
05:28This is a wake-up call.
05:29Protest vote ito.
05:30All right.
05:31Is BBM repeating the GMA political story?
05:36I mean, when GMA came, she was, when GMA took over ERAP, she had to deal with unpopularity, et cetera.
05:44Right?
05:44Because people felt she stole it from ERAP, whatnot.
05:47But this is really moving back.
05:49These are older people like you and me talking about it.
05:51The younger people don't even remember this.
05:53The history of Asangaran.
05:54Yes, yes, yes.
05:56But then this is different because BBM came with 31 million votes.
06:01Sa 31 million, eto ang hayas.
06:04So I'm going to show you a graphic and I want you to talk about this.
06:09WR Numero came out with this graphic in their last survey.
06:13As Filipinos, other than yung top senators nila, self-identified partnership, napakaganda ng tanong.
06:24Paano mo ilalarawan ang iyong suporta?
06:27Lumabas, very specific, 15% identified, taga-suporta sila ng mga Marcos at kanilang mga kaalyado.
06:39Tapos, taga-suporta ng mga nasa oposisyon at may pangalan tulad ni Lenny Risa, 13.6%.
06:47Or do you identify yourself with, taga-suporta ka ba ng mga Duterte at kanilang kaalyado, 40.1%.
06:58I'll give you this graphic.
06:59Biglang ang 31.4% nag-move sa independent.
07:05Na dati galing ito sa Marcos supporters.
07:09Yes.
07:09That is the identification of Filipinos today.
07:15So talk about that, Alan.
07:18So shout out to Doc Robin and to Cleve.
07:20Very, very well phrased at magandang maganda yung contextualization ng kanilang data.
07:29I think the story of this election is that many candidates, many campaign strategists,
07:38in my industry especially, underestimated this very nuanced word that I love.
07:44A Filipino word that has no English equivalent.
07:49Suya.
07:50Ay!
07:51Yung sensation ng Pilipino na suya sila.
07:56Suya is, I don't know, again, what is the English translation for suya?
08:00Oo, oo, oo, oo.
08:01Pero yung araw-araw nakikita mo, dalawang bakayan na lang ng dalawang higanting partido
08:07ng magkalabang politiko.
08:09Every day, day in, day out, it's just one up on ship.
08:12How will the Dutertes one up the Marcoses?
08:16How will the Marcoses one up the Dutertes?
08:19Nakakasuya.
08:20Pero mataas pa rin ang Duterte, ha?
08:23They're still the highest.
08:25Pakita na yung survey.
08:26Yun yung protest.
08:28I mean, yun lang ba ako na yan ang issue, you have to hit it.
08:30Show the survey, 40% ang aligned sa Duterte, ha?
08:3430 ang nasuya.
08:36Kaya nag-indemputin.
08:36Nasuya, yes.
08:38Pero mataas pa rin yung Duterte.
08:40So, what happened?
08:42The Marcos support, BBM, came in.
08:45Be specific, he came in with 31 million votes.
08:4831 million votes.
08:49The highest ever.
08:50And yet, he is now at, ano ba ito?
08:53I want you to be specific because you are the analyst, right?
09:00Down to 15%.
09:02What happened with the 31 million?
09:05Where did they go?
09:07Sige, hindi sila natuwa.
09:09Hindi sila natuwa sa kakulangan ng public services.
09:12Hindi sila natuwa because inflation was running away.
09:16They went to the groceries, to their respective groceries in Palenques with X number of money and then they were going home with small bags.
09:26Yung dating, pagpumunta ka sa grocery, medala kang dalawan libo, medyo okay ka na nun.
09:30Now you're coming away with a brown bag, not even a plastic bag.
09:37Hindi sila natuwa sa stand ng classrooms, education, health care.
09:42It's a 2025 budget na tinanggalin.
09:45Di ba?
09:46Binigay sa mga kongresista.
09:48Puro ayuda.
09:50Puro pangulitika.
09:52That was the turning point.
09:54In fact, siguro yung talagang realization na yung kanilang sentiment, nalagyan ng peso figure.
10:01Tapos nakita nila, teka, asa kami dyan?
10:04Bakit yung chunk ng budget ay napupunta?
10:08Binalik din sa kanila.
10:10So again, that's where all of this became a perfect storm.
10:15It festered.
10:16Ayan, gandang word yan.
10:18It festered.
10:19Tapos sa balota, gumanti sila.
10:21Okay, so President Marcos Jr. invited those who won to work with him for what he described as an honest government.
10:32Did you just close a remark?
10:36No, that's a correct remark.
10:38So the word honest, no?
10:40The word honest.
10:42And you hear stories of congressmen enriching themselves.
10:46People in government with so many homes in Makati, etc.
10:51Ang tanong ko, frankly, what should the President do?
10:54This is the last three years.
10:56The last three years, what is the legacy?
10:59You know, the Marcos had a major comeback.
11:02What is there?
11:03Right.
11:04Ako, if I was helping in any way, shape, or form with the Marcos administration or the Brain Trust,
11:11ako tinignan ko, napakasimple.
11:13Sino yung top nananalong senador?
11:14Pag-aralan natin yung five nananalong senador.
11:19Unang-una dyan si Bonggo.
11:20Ano bang advocacy ni Bonggo?
11:22Healthcare.
11:23Yan ang hinahanap ng tao.
11:25Healthcare pala ang hinahanap ng tao.
11:26Number two si Bam Aquino.
11:28Ano bang advocacy ni Bam Aquino?
11:29Edukasyon.
11:30Ah, dapat mag-focus pala ako sa edukasyon.
11:33Again, the data is there.
11:36The patterns are there.
11:37If you know how to read them.
11:39Pag-kaem.
11:40Agri-culture.
11:41Pag-kaem pala.
11:42Bato de la Rosa.
11:43Peace and order.
11:44Natatakot pala tao.
11:45Baka ma-hold up sila.
11:47Irwin Tulfo.
11:49Social services.
11:50Kasi when the institutions break down, they run to the Tulfos.
11:55Diba?
11:55They're the great equalizer.
11:57So babalik tayo dun sa pinag-usapan natin dati na nag-viral.
12:00Karen, naginawang clips.
12:01Diba yung helps?
12:03Diba?
12:03It's always helps.
12:04Health, education, livelihood, peace and order, social services.
12:07Tignan natin yung, magpa-plug muna ako, tignan natin yung top five winners ng Senado.
12:14Aba't tama pala si Alan Herman nung nag-guest siya sa Head Start.
12:18Mukhang yan talaga ang hinahanap ng tao.
12:20Oo.
12:21Pero ang galing mo na na-point out mo yun.
12:24Kung gusto, if the President wants to shape up, shake things up, tignan lang niya yung advocacy nung nag-top five.
12:31Read the data.
12:33Education.
12:35Peace and order.
12:36Peace and order.
12:38Sipa to.
12:39Murang pagkain.
12:40Kiko Pangilinan.
12:41Oo.
12:42Social services.
12:43Social services.
12:43Irwin Kulpo.
12:45You're right.
12:45That's it.
12:46Yun ang hinahanap ng tao.
12:47Obviously, people are no longer looking for buddots, entertainment, maging masaya.
12:53People are no longer looking for tokenism.
12:56Thank God, Karen.
12:57We were speaking about this.
12:59We had a long and very insightful discussion about tokenism one time.
13:04And you're right.
13:06Ito ang kumakain sa moral and social fiber ng Pilipino.
13:10Itong ayuda mentality na bigay lang ng bigay.
13:13Getting the fish and not learning how to fish.
13:16So tokenism out.
13:17Let's have actual reforms in those sectors.
13:20Okay.
13:21I'm going to ask you about certain candidates.
13:23But for accuracy purposes, I want to read the exact words of the statement of President Marcos Jr.
13:30Exactly.
13:32Sa gobyernong tapa, kasama ang lahat.
13:35It's very similar, actually.
13:38Yeah, Lenny's statement.
13:39Sa gobyernong tapa, ang may buhay lahat.
13:44Okay.
13:45All right.
13:46So now, I'm going to ask you this.
13:48Manny Pacquiao, what happened to him?
13:50What happened to Manny Pacquiao?
13:52Could Manny, or Abibina even, no?
13:56Let's start with Manny.
13:57Why Manny did not even, was not in the top five of Mindanao.
14:03Yes.
14:03What happened?
14:04You know, thank goodness we started with Manny Pacquiao.
14:09You know, si Manny Pacquiao, well, we cannot call him, well, former Senator Siguro is the best you can call him.
14:18It's, for some strange reason, just made a life decision.
14:22I think it was a life decision on his part to run away from what made him great.
14:28I've been saying this for years now.
14:31I don't understand why former Senator Manny Pacquiao did just refuse to embrace what made him an icon, which is his boxing.
14:40He never used his boxing persona in any of his campaigns.
14:43When you run for president, man of destiny.
14:45Aba, naka-kurbata, naka-quote and tie.
14:49Tapos nasa podium.
14:51Bakit di na ginamit yung boxing elements?
14:53He was known as the Pambansang Kamao, for goodness sake.
14:57Oo.
14:58Don't tell me that doesn't translate to a vote, man.
15:01Pambansang Kamao.
15:03No, that's the one.
15:04But did Manny, being part of the Alianza, did that, was that a part of, actually, was that an issue for him?
15:14It was one of the nails in the coffin because ang tingin sa kanya ng mga taga-Mindanao, betrayal, but kasawa mo dyan.
15:26And again, there's anecdotal evidence, more than anecdotal on my part because yung mga kandidato ko, nakita ko yun, where the Alianza and those allied with the Marcos camp could not land in Mindanao.
15:42So, they made their logistics a living nightmare trying to stage anything in Mindanao.
15:50So, nag-suffer doon, especially for Ramani Pacquiao na anak ng Mindanao yan.
15:54He's one of ours.
15:55Bakit sumama yan sa mga Marcos?
15:57Okay, Abby Bina, ipag-usapan natin.
15:59Because, you know, the others, like Benjur Abalos, they were always out of the magic 12.
16:06But, to be fair, during Duterte's time, kahit out of the magic 12, napasok niya sa 12 eh.
16:14Di ba?
16:14Makinaria.
16:15Votes, with command votes.
16:16Oo.
16:17So, ito, parang, we'll talk about command votes later or the lack of it in this term, but Abby Bina was number 9.
16:25What happened there?
16:26Can we show it?
16:29Abby Bina is not even number 13, I believe?
16:33Ang baba?
16:34Ang baba, baba.
16:35What happened, Alan?
16:36Well, I think, again, the formula for winning an election is awareness to conversion.
16:42So, yung national awareness kay Mayor Abby was not really that high.
16:49Hindi siya kilala nationally.
16:51So, with that in place...
16:56Ang Bina ay kilala, dahil tumakbong senador, dating vice president.
17:00Pero, if you look at, actually, if you look at other surveys, yung awareness kay Mayor Abby, hindi ganun kataas.
17:07Well, hindi siya nasa high 90s, 100s.
17:11So, pag ganyan, you will really lean back into the machinery.
17:14If you're in that position, you lean back into the machinery.
17:19The problem is, in this case, as we found out, hindsight is always 20-20, stained pala yung machinery.
17:26The machinery was not a plus.
17:29In fact, it was a minus.
17:30May anti-admin, anti-Marcus protest.
17:35So, hindi, hindi naging kaanya-anyaya.
17:38I don't want to call it a kiss of death yet.
17:41I was going to ask you that.
17:42Because, let's go back in history as well.
17:45This is important for political analysis.
17:48That term, kiss of death, was only given to an endorsement done by former President Arroyo, junior midterms, right?
17:57Kiss of death.
17:58Well, let's not jump to conclusions.
18:00Nakalima naman siya.
18:01But, again, if data will, and survey firms are being attacked now, that's another topic for another day, perhaps.
18:07But, yung approval ratings before midterms, PGMA had 30%, which was then the lowest.
18:15PBBM has 25%.
18:17Tinalo niya yung pagiging low.
18:22Ang GMA ulit?
18:2330% before the midterms.
18:27Yun ang approval ni GMA.
18:29Nung midterms nung panahon niya.
18:31Oo, pero ito, 20 si BBM.
18:3325. Mas umapaba pa.
18:35Oh, wow. Okay.
18:37So, yun ang, that was perhaps the data that flew over a lot of people's heads.
18:43Nag-focus sila sa survey.
18:44Sino ba yung top 10?
18:45Sino ba yung ano?
18:45Sino, I think one overlooked key bit of data was ano ba yung approval rating ng sitting president pag midterms.
18:56And people were not giving in a lot of weight because of the survey.
19:00Sabi nila, hindi, tinam mo, 8 pa rin yung pasok sa Alianza, 8 to 10.
19:03Well, iba yung election po, iba yung survey.
19:07Boa.
19:08And mahirap kasi to claim la lahat Alianza.
19:11Because just to review, Ping Langson and Tito Soto at 7 to 8, they could be carried by Alianza.
19:18But they are their own, they are their own...
19:21These are fully formed, fully developed politicians.
19:24They're fully formed candidates and public servants.
19:26They're not true.
19:28Pia Cayetano, same thing.
19:30The Cayetano's are already a national brand.
19:33Ang tagal-tagal na.
19:35And Camille Villar, I mean, she's a Villar.
19:38I mean, if she...
19:39Why would you even make Camille Villar really?
19:43I mean, that's a wink-wink, nudge-nudge.
19:45Alianza, wink-wink, nudge-nudge.
19:47Dahil yung last stretch of her campaign, ang kasama niya, puro si VP and Dizara Duterte sa kanyang March match.
19:54So, Alianza yan with the very, very pronounced air quotes.
19:59Boa.
20:00And then Lito Lapid and I mean, no?
20:03And then Lito Lapid, even if Alianza...
20:06I mean, matagal na itong kandidato eh.
20:09Matagal na itong senador.
20:11Especially Lito Lapid.
20:13Yeah, Alianza, Bong Revilia, Abby Binay, pero yung mga bago, Abby and Ben Hur, eto ang bago.
20:22They're the first timers na kineri for Alianza, didn't make it.
20:26Na hindi pa fully formed, what we're calling fully formed political entities.
20:31And look what happened.
20:33Layo nila.
20:34So, again, all the data will show, kung marunong ka bumasa ng data, katulad ni Karen, ano, you will see that, teka, that admin, that pure admin push actually pushed you back.
20:49So, it's that.
20:51Okay, as we close, can I just ask Willie Revilia May, please?
20:56I mean, let's talk about this guy.
20:59What happened to him and you know why?
21:01There was a survey, so I'm at number two.
21:03Another survey was at number five.
21:06Then, so people were like, oh, Willie is in.
21:09Diba ganun na?
21:10Yes, yes.
21:11You had businessmen talking to Willie Revilia May.
21:14Right?
21:15Already.
21:15Meeting, tycoons meeting with him.
21:18Which, you know, this should be a lesson for tycoons.
21:21Tycoons, you can make a better decision.
21:24You know, don't just go for who's popular.
21:27Go for who is good for the country.
21:30You had tycoons meeting with Willie Revilia May, right?
21:33You had senators, the Senate president helping him.
21:37And then suddenly, he's number 20 to 8.4 million votes.
21:42I believe Idy Mendoza got more votes than him.
21:46Am I correct?
21:46Yes, and Colonel Bosita, right?
21:49Si Bonnie Bosita.
21:52And Philip Salvador got more votes than Willie.
21:56Mr. Efectivo, yes.
21:57Well, I think ang nangyari kay Kuya Will, I'll call him Kuya Will,
22:03is a perfect storm of, parang ang nangyari sa kanya is paper mache man.
22:09That's what a terrible way to put it.
22:12But, you know, you have a big paper mache thing, but it's easy to knock down.
22:17It's easy to punch holes through it.
22:19And ultimately, there's nothing inside it that would appeal to true public service or governance.
22:25Siguro, nakita ng tao yan on social media, his interviews were being shared rampantly.
22:34And, you know, this is not black ops.
22:36You will see that it is really him saying,
22:38hindi niya alam ang trabaho ng senador, I'll plan it when I get there, wala akong,
22:43yun na nga eh, in fact, a lot of people are lamenting na talo si Kuya Will,
22:47e paano na natin malalaman yung plano at platforma niya?
22:50We'll never know it.
22:51Because he said, he'll only say it pag nasa senado na siya.
22:54So, again, do you smell that, Karen?
22:59Do you smell it?
23:00It's a shift.
23:01I'm smelling a shift.
23:02I'm smelling a tectonic shift in the electorate.
23:05Maybe substance na ang hinahanap natin.
23:07Hindi na yung patawa.
23:09The dean campaigning, delight, entertain, amuse, and make noise.
23:13Mukhang hindi na bumibenta.
23:15Sana matuloy.
23:16At least our kids can see it.
23:18On that note, I'm over time, but I do hope you'll come back to Head Start.
23:23Because this whole analysis is going to go on for the whole week or even more, right?
23:27With the shift and the impeachment coming up.
23:30But thank you for joining me.
23:31As always, political strategist Alan Herman.
23:37Thanks, Karen.
23:38Always a pleasure.
23:39And I'll be happy to come back.
23:41Maraming salamat po.
23:42And good morning.
23:42Never miss a story.
23:44Unlock exclusive access to uninterrupted streaming and premium news content.
23:49Subscribe to ANC 24-7 on YouTube and join ANC Prestige today.

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