The Indian government has rejected US President Donald Trump's claim that he helped broker a ceasefire between India and Pakistan in exchange for trade concessions.
00:00So is Donald Trump ending up only embarrassing the Narendra Modi government with his repeated comments that he brokered the ceasefire and trade was an issue?
00:10Is Donald Trump at the end of the day more of a dealmaker than a statesman?
00:14How serious should one take Trump's mediation bids in the first place?
00:18And how should the Modi government handle Donald Trump?
00:22Today I'm happy to be joined by two top diplomats this country has had.
00:26Nafted Sarna, former Indian ambassador to the United States and Israel, among other top posts he's held.
00:32And TCA Rajwan is former Indian high commissioner to Pakistan, written extensively on the subcontinent.
00:37I appreciate both of you joining us.
00:39Let me come to you, Mr. Sarna, first, because you've served in the United States.
00:44Now you've got a president who time and again in every public fora in the last 72 hours claims he is the one who brokered the ceasefire
00:52and that he did it by offering a trade deal effectively to both sides.
00:58Something that India has rejected, but he keeps talking about it.
01:01How does one handle Donald Trump?
01:05Thank you, Rajdeep.
01:06A pleasure to be here with you.
01:08I think those who have seen Trump 1.0 should not be too surprised.
01:15He said the same thing about mediation on Kashmir, standing next to Imran Khan in July 2019.
01:23And thereafter, after the abrogation of 370, etc., he never mentioned it again.
01:29Today, I think in Trump 2.0, hyperbole has become a habit with Mr. Trump.
01:36And I think India has made its position clear as much as it can without personally attacking him.
01:44I don't think we want to personally attack him, but our spokesman's position has been very clear on both the mediation aspects
01:53as well as the fact that trade was not talked about.
01:59All I want to say here is that, you know, our position has to be clear.
02:05And we have to get a way of getting back Mr. Trump on track.
02:12And that, I'm sure, our diplomatic establishment can easily do.
02:17He has to be brought back to talking terror.
02:20And this is something which we have to handle.
02:23But it doesn't mean that we have succumbed to the so-called mediation on this issue.
02:29Because even if you, for a moment, think of what if phone calls were exchanged, it means an end to hostilities.
02:38It does not mean pressure.
02:40And it does not mean mediation in the sense of, you know, the way we have traditionally understood in our foreign policy establishment as mediation on issues.
02:50This is not, this happened in Kargil, when Pakistan, July 4th, Nawaz Sharif was called to the White House,
02:58when nothing happens except barbecues in Washington, and he was told to back off.
03:03And so this is not really the issue.
03:05The issue is we have not, there is no mediation.
03:08As far as talks are concerned, I think that, I think the administration, the U.S. administration, has sort of extended its, you know, wishful thinking beyond a point of, you know, reality out there.
03:24So I think you have to let what Donald Trump has said, let it go over your left shoulder.
03:31It doesn't change a thing.
03:33And we have to get back to the multiplicity of actors in the U.S. administration to get a message back on track.
03:42You're saying you've got to get the message back on track.
03:44But TCA Raghavan, either way, every time Donald Trump says this, isn't it embarrassing that you've got a U.S. president who, first of all, tweets the ceasefire, virtually taking credit for it,
03:57then refers to Kashmir as this thousand-year conflict, and offers to mediate.
04:03Are we to simply ignore, or as Navtej Sarna says, focus on getting the right message out there?
04:12Donald Trump isn't talking about terror.
04:14We are the victims.
04:15And he seems to be equating Pakistan and us in every statement he makes.
04:20How do you deal with him?
04:23I think we have to focus on our priorities.
04:25In the course of the last few weeks, we have sent two very important messages to Pakistan.
04:35First, by keeping the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance.
04:39And secondly, by the military and kinetic actions taken after the 7th of May.
04:46To my mind, both these very powerful messages registered.
04:50And thereafter, if the United States and others played a helpful role in diffusing tensions and stopping further escalation, it was a good thing.
05:02The United States has played, as Ambassador Samna just said, a similar role in de-escalation in the past also.
05:11And it has also played a useful role in the past, as for instance, after the Mumbai terrorist attack, in channelizing intense diplomatic pressure on Pakistan.
05:23So, we shouldn't, our position on third party mediation on India-Pakistan issues is very clear.
05:32But we shouldn't make our principal position on that into such a big thing that we do not allow others to play a helpful role from our point of view otherwise.
05:46No, but in the process, if I may just, in the process of playing a helpful role, as you call it, isn't Donald Trump ending up equating India and Pakistan?
05:54He keeps saying, two great nations that I'm dealing with, that he's spoken to both sides.
06:00You referred to Kargil, both of you referred to Kargil.
06:03Then Clinton sent out the tough message to Nawaz Sharif.
06:06Here, the problem is, he's trying to make it out to be as if both India and Pakistan were asked to pull back.
06:11I think we should have confidence in our own abilities.
06:16Symmetries, power symmetries in the subcontinent have changed a lot since Kargil times.
06:24We don't need the United States to send Trump, to send Pakistan tough messages now.
06:30We are quite capable of doing it ourselves.
06:31The point is that the United States has played in the past, and it did so this time too, a useful role in de-escalating a potentially escalatory situation.
06:45And that is a good thing.
06:47I don't think we should necessarily see that as the thin end of the wedge in leading to a major mediation effort.
06:55Because on third-party involvement in India-Pakistan issues, our position is very, very clear.
07:02So, I don't see any scope for that position either changing because of some statements which have been made,
07:09or because there was a role played in de-escalating a crisis situation.
07:17Somehow that has weakened our position with regard to third-party players.
07:21I don't see the two as connected.
07:23But should we get Donald Trump to send a firmer message, Mr. Raghavan, on terror specifically to Pakistan?
07:30Why are his statements not mentioning or referring to the terror emanating out of Pakistan?
07:36I'm sure, I'm sure.
07:37I think the United States' position on Pakistan is well known.
07:42It doesn't have to be reiterated on every occasion.
07:46And the history of Pakistan-U.S. relations over the past 10 or 15 years really speaks for itself.
07:54So, I don't think we have to ask them to wave a flag in our favor every time something happens.
07:59I think we need to have much more confidence in our own positions and our own capacities.
08:05You know, Naptit Sarna, I just want to put up this, that Trump today is, of course, in the Arab world.
08:12He's got Saudi Arabia to make a commitment to invest $600 billion over four years in the U.S.
08:18to sell arms worth $142 billion.
08:21He's gone to Qatar and has got Doha to gift him a $400 million Boeing 747 Jumbo.
08:26And that there's, he's also got, the plane is to be transferred to his foundation.
08:34$200 billion jet deal with Doha, a branded golf course and real estate project to come up in Qatar.
08:42He's now going to UAE and we are told there will be a $1.4 billion weapon sale to UAE.
08:46And UAE to invest $1.4 trillion over 10 years in the U.S.
08:50And on Syria, he's lifting sanctions on Syria and praising the Syrian President Ahmad al-Shara
08:56as a young, attractive, tough guy who only till recently was designated a global terrorist by the U.S. in 2013.
09:03We seem to be now dealing with a U.S. president, if I may say so, who's a real estate dealmaker
09:08and not a real serious statesman of any kind.
09:13Well, Raslip, what's so surprising about that?
09:16I think there are two aspects to Mr. Trump's personality.
09:18One is the real estate developer and the second is the reality show host.
09:24So when you combine those two, you get what you're seeing.
09:29So I must just come back to a couple of points that Raghavan made.
09:34I think one is the mediation aspect, you know, which we have already talked about.
09:40And the second thing you mentioned was the hyphenation aspect.
09:42I think the hyphenation aspect should not also be taken as seriously because it is momentary
09:50and it is superficial because the world has to be told again the real India story.
09:56We are not in the same league as Pakistan.
09:59We are in a different league.
10:00And we have to tell countries like Turkey this, that if you want to do business with us,
10:06then you have to behave differently.
10:09Therefore, this hyphenation comes by because the world is overworked.
10:15The world is crowded with crises.
10:18So the minute it's a lazy, lazy assumption that here are two nuclear armed guys going at each other,
10:25they will spiral out of control.
10:27But this hyphenation has been broken before.
10:30It will be broken again.
10:31So I don't worry too much about that.
10:33As far as Mr. Trump's personality and his penchant for deals is concerned,
10:39yes, he is a dealmaker and a peacemaker.
10:41Even the State Department spokesman is actually using the two words interchangeably
10:46in a couple of statements at the back.
10:49And by the way, on the mediation aspect,
10:51the State Department seems to be walking away from it already.
10:55The statement yesterday says, you know, commends their decision and rejects,
11:02which reflects strength, wisdom, and fortitude.
11:04And we urge both sides to maintain direct contacts.
11:09Now, this is a walking away from the previous position.
11:13So, you know, I think what we need is sustained diplomatic effort.
11:18We don't really need to get onto the rooftop and start shouting against Mr. Trump.
11:23And nothing that Mr. Trump says is cast in stone.
11:27It's what gets him in the morning that makes things move.
11:31So therefore, Mr. Raghu, if we have the Pakistanis claiming, forget about the, you know, the military part of it.
11:41That I think is very clear that they've suffered heavy losses.
11:43That's increasingly becoming clear.
11:45But diplomatically, can the Pakistanis use this ceasefire to try and claim that, you know, they want a dialogue with India.
11:54Here is Donald Trump talking of dinner between Modi and Sharif.
11:58Was that simply a carrot offer to the Pakistanis to get them to sign on to the ceasefire?
12:03I think the Pakistanis found that the ceasefire was in their interest.
12:11And they have, they would also see President Trump's tweets to some extent as being, giving them a little extra satisfaction.
12:22But I won't pay too much attention to that, because in the end, Pakistan also has to sell the ceasefire to its people.
12:31And therefore, they are claiming victory is something which is inevitable and natural.
12:37We don't have to take it at face value.
12:40The important thing I, to my mind at least, is despite the sharp erosion in Pakistan-U.S. relations in the past decade and a half, how significant a role the United States still played vis-a-vis Pakistan.
12:59That is something quite surprising, because one would have expected that with the major erosion in past U.S. relations, such a role would be more difficult for the U.S. to play.
13:13But in fact, Pakistan accepted that role very readily and in fact with great eagerness.
13:19I think that is a significant development and we shouldn't underestimate it.
13:24Okay, let me give Navtej a final, Mr. Sarna, a final word.
13:27Mr. Sarna, therefore, do you believe that India now needs to aggressively go and make a pitch across the world to explain to the world that we are the victims, Pakistan the perpetrator?
13:37Do we need to do a bit more in that regard, in your view, or not?
13:41I don't think we need to do anything in a sense of panic or desperation.
13:47I mean, this is part of noble diplomatic work.
13:49But clearly, what we have to do is to make sure that the message stays on terror and terror alone.
13:57And doesn't get diluted into other things.
14:00And that is just a nuancing of our messaging, which has already been there.
14:04But we are working across the board.
14:06You know, whether it is FATF, whether it is other institutions, whether it is the UN Security Council, I think the message has to go back.
14:14Listen, this was not a conflict between two nuclear arms countries just because we don't like each other.
14:22This was a retaliation to a terror attack from a country which supports the institution of terror as an instrument of state power.
14:32And that is the message which has been consistent.
14:35And I think it should continue.
14:36But if there have been particular incidents, particular countries with whom we need to rub this message in again, then we should do so.
14:46Okay.
14:46Navtej Sarna and Mr. Raghavan, I appreciate two very fine voices joining me and giving us a sense and putting Trump's comments in some kind of context.
14:55Thank you very much, both of you, for joining me.
