“It was a competitive race from the start."
Interview kina Dr. Mahar Mangahas, Chair Emeritus, SWS at Prof. Ranjit Rye, U.P. Diliman Dept. of Political Science/Fellow, OCTA Research as of 8:47 a.m.
Panoorin ang 32-hour special coverage ng GMA Integrated News para sa #Eleksyon2025!
WATCH: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QyC7UAqmq4c
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Interview kina Dr. Mahar Mangahas, Chair Emeritus, SWS at Prof. Ranjit Rye, U.P. Diliman Dept. of Political Science/Fellow, OCTA Research as of 8:47 a.m.
Panoorin ang 32-hour special coverage ng GMA Integrated News para sa #Eleksyon2025!
WATCH: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QyC7UAqmq4c
Welcome to the official YouTube channel of GMA Integrated News, the News Authority of the Filipino. Updated daily with the latest top news and breaking news.
Subscribe to the GMA Integrated News channel! https://www.youtube.com/@gmanews
Visit our website - https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/
Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/gmanews
TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@gmanews
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TVTranscript
00:00Kasaan pa rin natin si Dr. Marmangahas, Chair Emeritus ng Social Weather Stations o SWS at Prof. Ranjid Rai.
00:08Ayan, Dr. Mgaahas, sabi nyo, meron din kasi kayong mga local surveys, di ba Dr. Mgaahas?
00:15Commissioned local surveys. So, eto yung mga nakita nyo, mas tugma? Mas tugma po ba siya?
00:23Not all, but it's not all work.
00:27Yung iba kasi still too close to call.
00:28You know, we have released many local surveys already because the sponsors did it and we confirmed it.
00:37So, in particular, look at Albay because we have confirmed the survey commission in Albay.
00:45So, have a look at that and let's see what happens.
00:48Pero yung mga ganun, 20% na lang po, tapos ang lamang mga 8,000, pwede pa hong magbago yung resulta, no?
00:57Well, I wouldn't say, no, ha, siyempre.
01:03Pero pag 20%, ilang voto na lang ba?
01:05Depende siguro sa...
01:06Total number of voting population.
01:09Pero definitely 20% is still in the slowly...
01:11Pwede pa rin?
01:12Pwede, mathematically, masyadong tiket.
01:14Pero of course, ang reading naman talaga it was a competitive race from the start.
01:18Si Rosal was a mayor, a popular mayor, in that particular province.
01:26Okay.
01:27And so, you know, everybody thought that this would be a close fight.
01:31But not this close.
01:33It's kind of a...
01:34Including the Cebu.
01:35You know, the governorship, no?
01:38We didn't expect that big a gap between Governor Garcia and the challenger.
01:45Okay.
01:46So, the politics at the local and national level is changing.
01:51Nagbabago.
01:52So, mga votante natin nagsasabi...
01:54Gusto ng pagbabago.
01:54Gusto ng pagbabago.
01:55And this is...
01:57There are many ways to interpret this.
01:58One way is, of course, the opposition won here.
02:00There is a protest vote, no?
02:04To some extent.
02:05People want change.
02:06Siguro kung ayon nila ipasay yung political dynasty sa Congress,
02:10tao na ang nagbabago.
02:12Yeah, but yun nga lang.
02:14More of the same, eh.
02:16Dynasty still won in this election.
02:19Political family still won.
02:21Yung ating politika, hindi pa rin disiplinado ng program, platform, ideas.
02:26Hindi siya...
02:27Hindi ganun, eh.
02:28Yung ating politika.
02:29Sir, sir.
02:29Sige po.
02:30I can read to you because this we have released already.
02:34Okay.
02:35This is Albay.
02:37Governor of Albay.
02:39As of May.
02:40So, the first week of May.
02:42You know?
02:43We had Salceda, 49%.
02:45And...
02:47Rosal, 34.
02:50Wow.
02:51Ah, okay.
02:5115 points.
02:52Oo.
02:52Okay.
02:54And...
02:55Ah, and then maraming undecided.
02:59May mga 18 pa siya undecided.
03:00Ah, so baka doon din galing sa undecided.
03:02Okay.
03:02So, but the trend there...
03:04The trend there has always been...
03:08This is the third round already, eh.
03:09May March, may April, may May.
03:11Always Joey Salceda.
03:13Dr. Mangasta, magit niyo kanina, also Professor Rina, sometimes kailangan talagang maraming rounds of surveys para closer to election day and closer to the actual tally.
03:24Ah, ideally ba, ilang rounds po ba dapat yan?
03:28I mean, how many rounds do you do compared to the one that you'd like to do?
03:32These are all commissioned.
03:33Yeah.
03:34So, in fact, we would not even...
03:35We would not even report this.
03:37If it were not commissioned.
03:38If it were not commissioned, yeah.
03:39If the commissioner did not release it already.
03:43Right?
03:45But I would like to say, we're an NGO, no?
03:47After three years, we can release anything.
03:50But that's, of course, by that time, it's already for historians.
03:53Tama nga na itanong natin yung, kailang kayo nag-de-desisyon?
03:57Kasi sinabi, ang laki ng porsyento pa ng undecided, so kailan sila nag...
04:01Sa Okta...
04:01We've done that.
04:02We've done that.
04:03Sa Okta, we're going to release this.
04:06But we have data to show that 20% of our voting population will only decide on the day of election.
04:13Ismo election.
04:14Okay.
04:14And then another 20%, close to 20%, but 18%, will decide the week before the election.
04:20So 20%.
04:21Masyadong malarap.
04:22It's the voting population, so that's what we're seeing.
04:24Ay, babalikan pa po natin si Dr. Mangaso at Professor Rai.
04:27Tuloy ating pagbabantaya sa bilangan.