The Scotsman Bulletin Monday May 05 2025 #Reform

The Scotsman

Transcript

00:00Hello and welcome to the Scotsman's Daily Video Bulletin for this Bank Holiday Monday.

00:05My name's Dale Miller. I'm Deputy Editor of the Scotsman and I'm joined by our Deputy

00:10Political Editor, David Bowell. David, we're going to talk about all things politics. It's

00:18sort of a big 24, 48 hours for John Swinney and his government, but also the front page

00:24of today's paper. It's politics heavy as well. John Swinney saying, if he is, Farage will

00:30be the next Prime Minister. Comments coming on the back of Reform winning 677 council seats

00:39in total at the English local elections, taking control of 10 authorities, winning the party,

00:46winning its fifth MP, taking a seat that Labor had held and won with a comfortable majority.

00:52Just less than 12 months ago. So there's a lot to focus on there, a lot for the parties

01:01to battle against in terms of trying to retain or not lose further ground to reform over the

01:10next 12 months with a Hollywood election around the corner. So John Swinney speaking about

01:14that. We've got a story up on John Curtis and his thoughts in the wake of the reform results

01:20at scotsman.com. Rachel Amory's handled that. And also, David, we're going to get onto the

01:26fact that it's the program for government tomorrow, which is effectively a chance for John Swinney

01:33to sit out his stall pretty much almost exactly 12 months out from the election. On reform,

01:40firstly, John Curtis, it was interesting. He was saying this morning that actually reform doing

01:46well is good news for John Swinney because reform aren't taking votes off the SNP, but it's bad news

01:53for Labor and for Anasawa as well. Where do you sort of sit on the rise of reform?

02:00Yeah, I think it clearly does play into John Swinney's hands a little bit here on a couple of fronts,

02:05actually. Obviously, it's taking votes off his rivals, the unionist parties, particularly the

02:10Conservatives and Labour are both probably going to lose some sort of support to reform. Although,

02:16interestingly, in the English local elections last week, Labour seem to be losing more of their

02:20support to kind of the Lib Dems and the Greens. So Labour tied between two places here, losing

02:26support on both sides of the political spectrum. But also that narrative, like you said, John Swinney

02:33indicating, oh, Nigel Farage could be Prime Minister, plays into a lot of their voters a bit of fear and

02:39a bit of, well, we saw this before with under the Conservative government, there was this kind of UK

02:45bad attitude to it. And pick the SNP because we can we can paint a different picture of the future.

02:52And I think it plays into that a little bit as well with Nigel Farage being such a divisive character.

02:58But electorally, it does it does work for the SNP, although they're obviously not aligned at all

03:03politically. Anasawa is in a bit of a bind here on a lot of fronts. He's in big trouble.

03:09And if he wants to still hang on to that dream of being first minister and the rise of reform

03:14is making things even worse. Just on the results back in the local elections on Friday,

03:22on the back of it, we heard across the weekend that Nigel Farage is apparently going to come

03:28up to Scotland now. It's been a long time since he's been up here. We know Richard Tice attended the

03:34the most recent event where one of the party's leaders came up here. Do you think it will go

03:43ahead? Because there are reasons. He didn't get a great reception last time. He came north of the

03:48border, Nigel Farage. But have things changed enough since then, though?

03:52I think he'll feel more confident coming up this time than he has in the last few years. I think

03:56the last experience in Edinburgh put him off coming up. Understandably, he got basically chased out of

04:02the Royal Mile. So I don't think we'll see a repeat of that. The Richard Tice visit that you mentioned

04:09was a bit of a farce. But they kind of like the chaos reform that kind of plays into their sort of

04:15anti-establishment. Well, whether you believe that or not, it's what they kind of try and portray to

04:21their voters that they are kind of outside the political and economic bubble. So I do think we

04:27probably will see him at some point. I don't think it will be him just turning up in a pub, though. I

04:32think it will be a more managed event, probably. And they've got a lot of support up here. It's still

04:37about half of the support they're getting in England in Scotland. But it's significant and it's

04:42significant enough to really worry the Tories at the next election. There's a good chance they

04:47could poll higher than them at the by-election, the Hamilton by-election later this month. So

04:53it really is a different kind of atmosphere and landscape that reform will be coming up to Scotland

05:01in. They've got that support there. And I do think we will probably see him in some form or another

05:06in the year up to the Hollywood election. And just on program for government,

05:12that's tomorrow. That's obviously an important moment for John Swinney and his government. He

05:17sets out his legislative agenda effectively for the next 12 months. It's ideal for him because that is

05:23the run into the election. Just talk me through, I know you've written a couple of pieces about this.

05:29What should anyone tuning in be looking for in that package? What's a couple of things that you can

05:36highlight? Well, it's interesting. We're still a bit low on the detail of what John Swinney is going to

05:41come forward with. So this is his legislative program for the next 12 months, which brings him up to that

05:47election. So he's moved the date to give him a whole 12 months of delivery, which is his big focus

05:53now is actually to follow through on some of these pledges that him and his previous SNP first ministers

05:59have promised. Though he's got his four priorities, which is kind of attacking the economy. And there's

06:05ones on child poverty, we know, but this is legislation. So it's difficult to know what tangible

06:11things he's going to actually bring forward in this. He also needs some money to do anything kind of

06:17radical, which he's promising, which will probably have to come in next year's budget. And obviously,

06:21the UK government finances are a bit perilous, to say the least, and it could be a different

06:27financial picture by the time we get rounds to that budget. He's under pressure to kind of get

06:33the climate action back on track. Again, one of his four priorities, but there's been so many targets

06:38that have kind of been pushed back or watered down or cancelled. Again, sees it as a big priority.

06:44The SNPC is a big vote winner, although some opponents now would disagree with that. But John Swinney

06:51insists it is. So it really is difficult to know what tangible things he'll bring forward. But this

06:57is his chance to pitch to the public what sort of laws and legislation he's going to bring forward for

07:03them this year. And it gives them a flavour of that SNP manifesto that we're going to see leading up to

07:08next year's election. You can read all the pieces we've discussed at scotsman.com. If you ever can't find

07:14our politics coverage, just go to the politics tab in the navigation bar where you'll get all the very

07:20latest. Please follow us on all social media channels and pick up a copy of the Scotsman tomorrow in

07:27print. We'll have the latest on VE Day as we continue events and stories as well to mark the 80 year anniversary,

07:39which falls officially on Thursday. So there will be more coverage on that in tomorrow's paper and in

07:45subsequent papers throughout this week, including a special edition, bumper edition on Thursday.

07:53Now, thanks for joining us, David, and thanks to everyone else.

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