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भारत-पाकिस्तान के बीच हुई जंग तो क्या ट्रंप देंगे साथ? एक्सपर्ट ने क्यों कहा कि पाक से हो फुल वॉर?
ETVBHARAT
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4/26/2025
अमेरिकी एक्सपर्ट प्रोफेसर मुक्तदर खान ने बताया कैसी जंग भारत के लिए बेहतर या खतरनाक, युद्ध हुआ तो अमेरिकी राष्ट्रपति डोनाल्ड ट्रंप क्या करेंगे?
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00:00
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00:29
Look, first of all, there's a lot of advice for my family.
00:35
They're sad at what happened.
00:38
But for India, there's a very serious dilemma.
00:42
How do we get the answer?
00:44
The world's economy is such a way to shrink.
00:49
The global economy can shrink from 6-7% from our president.
00:54
With the tariff policies, it will also have to be affected by India.
00:59
At least, it will be less than 1-8% GDP growth rate.
01:04
So, Prime Minister Modi has a challenge for the Prime Minister of Modi.
01:09
If they're doing a lot of serious steps,
01:16
then he'll have to prove to the international community that Pakistan's hands behind it.
01:22
That's why it's so big.
01:24
So, if they have small exercises, surgical strikes,
01:27
then the risk is that Pakistan will respond.
01:29
You've seen a few years ago that Iran has attacked Pakistan.
01:33
And Pakistan has attacked Iran.
01:35
Both countries did what they want to do.
01:38
And then, the problem is that,
01:41
the expectations have increased.
01:56
So, the expectations have increased.
02:07
I think that the government's operation will not be satisfied.
02:13
And India has increased so much rhetoric.
02:17
They want something very serious.
02:19
And now, this treaty has canceled the industry.
02:24
Actually, no one can't see it.
02:27
It's been about 18 months.
02:30
The treaty is nearly over.
02:32
So, the negotiations are going on.
02:34
So, Prime Minister Modi has stopped the negotiations.
02:38
The negotiations have stopped the negotiations.
02:39
It's not the treaty.
02:40
It's not the treaty.
02:41
But the answer of Pakistan is very difficult.
02:44
The shimla accord has broken.
02:46
Look, you remember that Obama interferes with this resolution.
02:53
Donald Trump said that if India would say it would be a big issue.
02:57
So, India's standard answer was that this is our bilateral issue.
03:00
Neither UN nor the US.
03:02
There will be no doubt in Kashmir.
03:05
But that was based on the shimla accord of 1972.
03:08
If the shimla accord is finished,
03:11
then Pakistan has a chance to get involved with third parties.
03:14
OIC, Saudi Arabia, America or UN.
03:19
So, I think losing shimla accord is not in India's interest.
03:23
But I believe that it's a challenge that they have to calibrate it right.
03:28
Look, if they fight a small war,
03:30
then Pakistan's army and Pakistan's government will be lost.
03:34
Because now, the public is against them.
03:36
That's why Imeran Khan has no respect and the government has no legitimacy.
03:41
But if there is a small war,
03:44
then the public will be behind Pakistan's government and this army.
03:48
It will back them.
03:49
Right?
03:50
Yes.
03:51
If there is a big war,
03:52
then their economy will be lost.
03:53
And their assets will be lost.
03:54
They will be lost.
03:55
But that will also cost India.
03:59
So, Narendra Modi's challenge is that he has to calibrate it so carefully,
04:03
that he has to calibrate it so carefully,
04:04
that he doesn't do so much,
04:05
that there will be international episodes.
04:07
But he doesn't do so much,
04:08
that Pakistan feels it can retaliate.
04:10
He has no stakes in Pakistan.
04:25
He has no stakes in Pakistan.
04:27
I mean, Pakistan is completely isolated.
04:28
Not the OIC countries, not Saudi Arabia, not the UAE,
04:29
Iran is not interested in helping Pakistan.
04:31
Now, the question is, will the US back India?
04:33
I think it will be verbally back India.
04:34
But there is nothing serious support coming to India.
04:38
Because Donald Trump has so many problems.
04:39
It is quite possible that our economy will go into recession.
04:40
And China is not playing the way we expected that it will fall down.
04:43
Inflation with the chances.
04:44
The economy is with the chance that the economy is very internally focused.
05:01
And this is important for America.
05:06
He is very internally focused.
05:10
focused. And he wants to change the culture of America and politics. So he's not interested
05:15
in peripheral issues. But he wants India. India is an important country. Fifth biggest
05:21
economy. So you can say that if India does not do something really major, which is why
05:29
America has hit the global order, then America has to step in. Donald Trump can say that
05:37
license has to a great extent to India to do whatever it feels is necessary in this
05:43
issue. But it's also the limitations of India. Look, there are two risks for Narendra Modi.
05:49
There is a policy risk that the policy is not going to be backfired. Look, the last time
05:53
the pilot was shooting, they had a lot of things in India that the F-16 hit the F-16, but
06:00
the rest of the world doesn't believe that the F-16 was shot. But if you had a pilot
06:05
hit the F-16, then you don't want something. That policy will be failure if someone will
06:09
die or will die. But there is also a political risk that if the public is not happy that you
06:18
have jacked them so much rhetorically, they are expecting you to do something big, and
06:22
you have given them 6-6-6-6-10, then that will not happen. So he has to face both the political
06:28
risks. And actually, I was very surprised to see that the first time I have had a strong
06:34
question. This is an intelligence failure. In the past few months, India's intelligence
06:41
has been missed. It's a complete disaster. You don't know what intelligence is happening.
06:47
You don't know what intelligence is happening in Bangladesh. And if India's allegations that
06:54
this regime change America has done, then you didn't know what it was happening in Canada,
07:00
and then America's agent. So that shows that there has been a consistent intelligence failure
07:07
India in India. Now they didn't know. So there is no accountability. So there is some pressure
07:14
coming now from Congress that intelligence failure is about this. Then security failure
07:18
is also about this. I am showing a show. So in my show, a man came and said, I am just an ordinary
07:24
person. I was also on vacation. But he said that I was judging by myself and I didn't take my family there.
07:34
I just want to ask why I'm taking my family there.
07:39
It was a very interesting thing
08:08
I think we both left Andhra Pradesh, which was undivided
08:16
So we both are from one state
08:19
The Secretary of Treasury said that India is probably going to be the first country to have a bilateral trade agreement
08:26
It's not a free trade, it's a bilateral trade
08:29
It will be different trades
08:32
I think India had already
08:34
First of all, the negotiations were falling in the trade
08:40
The most important thing about Donald Trump is that the trade barriers are not just tariffs
08:46
There are tariffs and the imbalance
08:52
Now, I don't know how many weeks ago India has bought a rough-hale for 7.4 billion dollars.
09:00
I was surprised that in America, there was no notice that if India has got 7.4 for a rough-hale,
09:05
then where will F-35?
09:08
Which means that India is not going to buy unnecessary things, which is very good.
09:12
But the trade of 43 to 48 billion dollar trade deficit will be filled.
09:18
So, Trump will demand that they will buy some things.
09:22
In India, the most challenging thing in trade is that if India will open its agricultural market or not.
09:30
That is the trend.
09:31
If India will open, then India will be very dangerous.
09:33
And politically, it is very dangerous.
09:36
Already farmers are not aroused.
09:39
I am very happy.
09:42
I am very happy.
09:43
I am very happy.
09:44
I am very happy.
09:45
I am very happy.
09:46
I am very happy.
09:47
I am very happy.
09:48
I am very happy.
09:49
I am very happy.
09:50
I am very happy.
09:51
But it is important that this world's biggest voice is.
09:53
You are seeing that a conservative trend is happening, Putin is happening,
09:58
It is happening, and Donald Trump is happening.
10:01
Putin, Narendra Modi, Donald Trump, Hungary, Argentina.
10:07
What is happening with that?
10:09
There are two things.
10:10
One is democratic backsliding, civil society institutions,
10:14
if we take the media or even independent judiciary.
10:17
These are all dangerous.
10:19
Progressive voices, it is important that they come together
10:24
and decide that we are dangerous but there are some things
10:28
for which we need to fight.
10:30
I expect that when people go to the other place,
10:34
they will learn that,
10:35
for example, this is a semi-progressive party,
10:39
you can call it Indian Congress.
10:41
This state is run by a semi-progressive party
10:44
where the majority politics do not work.
10:47
So I think that progressives will go back to their countries
10:50
and there is hope that we can fight.
10:54
Thank you very much for talking about E.T.E.B.Bharat.
11:01
It is very important to me, whether it be trade negotiations or deals, or whether it be a war or a war.
11:11
Vikas Koshik, ETV Bharat, Hyderabad
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