भारत-पाकिस्तान के बीच हुई जंग तो क्या ट्रंप देंगे साथ? एक्सपर्ट ने क्यों कहा कि पाक से हो फुल वॉर?

ETVBHARAT

अमेरिकी एक्सपर्ट प्रोफेसर मुक्तदर खान ने बताया कैसी जंग भारत के लिए बेहतर या खतरनाक, युद्ध हुआ तो अमेरिकी राष्ट्रपति डोनाल्ड ट्रंप क्या करेंगे?

Transcript

00:00।

00:29Look, first of all, there's a lot of advice for my family.

00:35They're sad at what happened.

00:38But for India, there's a very serious dilemma.

00:42How do we get the answer?

00:44The world's economy is such a way to shrink.

00:49The global economy can shrink from 6-7% from our president.

00:54With the tariff policies, it will also have to be affected by India.

00:59At least, it will be less than 1-8% GDP growth rate.

01:04So, Prime Minister Modi has a challenge for the Prime Minister of Modi.

01:09If they're doing a lot of serious steps,

01:16then he'll have to prove to the international community that Pakistan's hands behind it.

01:22That's why it's so big.

01:24So, if they have small exercises, surgical strikes,

01:27then the risk is that Pakistan will respond.

01:29You've seen a few years ago that Iran has attacked Pakistan.

01:33And Pakistan has attacked Iran.

01:35Both countries did what they want to do.

01:38And then, the problem is that,

01:41the expectations have increased.

01:56So, the expectations have increased.

02:07I think that the government's operation will not be satisfied.

02:13And India has increased so much rhetoric.

02:17They want something very serious.

02:19And now, this treaty has canceled the industry.

02:24Actually, no one can't see it.

02:27It's been about 18 months.

02:30The treaty is nearly over.

02:32So, the negotiations are going on.

02:34So, Prime Minister Modi has stopped the negotiations.

02:38The negotiations have stopped the negotiations.

02:39It's not the treaty.

02:40It's not the treaty.

02:41But the answer of Pakistan is very difficult.

02:44The shimla accord has broken.

02:46Look, you remember that Obama interferes with this resolution.

02:53Donald Trump said that if India would say it would be a big issue.

02:57So, India's standard answer was that this is our bilateral issue.

03:00Neither UN nor the US.

03:02There will be no doubt in Kashmir.

03:05But that was based on the shimla accord of 1972.

03:08If the shimla accord is finished,

03:11then Pakistan has a chance to get involved with third parties.

03:14OIC, Saudi Arabia, America or UN.

03:19So, I think losing shimla accord is not in India's interest.

03:23But I believe that it's a challenge that they have to calibrate it right.

03:28Look, if they fight a small war,

03:30then Pakistan's army and Pakistan's government will be lost.

03:34Because now, the public is against them.

03:36That's why Imeran Khan has no respect and the government has no legitimacy.

03:41But if there is a small war,

03:44then the public will be behind Pakistan's government and this army.

03:48It will back them.

03:49Right?

03:50Yes.

03:51If there is a big war,

03:52then their economy will be lost.

03:53And their assets will be lost.

03:54They will be lost.

03:55But that will also cost India.

03:59So, Narendra Modi's challenge is that he has to calibrate it so carefully,

04:03that he has to calibrate it so carefully,

04:04that he doesn't do so much,

04:05that there will be international episodes.

04:07But he doesn't do so much,

04:08that Pakistan feels it can retaliate.

04:10He has no stakes in Pakistan.

04:25He has no stakes in Pakistan.

04:27I mean, Pakistan is completely isolated.

04:28Not the OIC countries, not Saudi Arabia, not the UAE,

04:29Iran is not interested in helping Pakistan.

04:31Now, the question is, will the US back India?

04:33I think it will be verbally back India.

04:34But there is nothing serious support coming to India.

04:38Because Donald Trump has so many problems.

04:39It is quite possible that our economy will go into recession.

04:40And China is not playing the way we expected that it will fall down.

04:43Inflation with the chances.

04:44The economy is with the chance that the economy is very internally focused.

05:01And this is important for America.

05:06He is very internally focused.

05:10focused. And he wants to change the culture of America and politics. So he's not interested

05:15in peripheral issues. But he wants India. India is an important country. Fifth biggest

05:21economy. So you can say that if India does not do something really major, which is why

05:29America has hit the global order, then America has to step in. Donald Trump can say that

05:37license has to a great extent to India to do whatever it feels is necessary in this

05:43issue. But it's also the limitations of India. Look, there are two risks for Narendra Modi.

05:49There is a policy risk that the policy is not going to be backfired. Look, the last time

05:53the pilot was shooting, they had a lot of things in India that the F-16 hit the F-16, but

06:00the rest of the world doesn't believe that the F-16 was shot. But if you had a pilot

06:05hit the F-16, then you don't want something. That policy will be failure if someone will

06:09die or will die. But there is also a political risk that if the public is not happy that you

06:18have jacked them so much rhetorically, they are expecting you to do something big, and

06:22you have given them 6-6-6-6-10, then that will not happen. So he has to face both the political

06:28risks. And actually, I was very surprised to see that the first time I have had a strong

06:34question. This is an intelligence failure. In the past few months, India's intelligence

06:41has been missed. It's a complete disaster. You don't know what intelligence is happening.

06:47You don't know what intelligence is happening in Bangladesh. And if India's allegations that

06:54this regime change America has done, then you didn't know what it was happening in Canada,

07:00and then America's agent. So that shows that there has been a consistent intelligence failure

07:07India in India. Now they didn't know. So there is no accountability. So there is some pressure

07:14coming now from Congress that intelligence failure is about this. Then security failure

07:18is also about this. I am showing a show. So in my show, a man came and said, I am just an ordinary

07:24person. I was also on vacation. But he said that I was judging by myself and I didn't take my family there.

07:34I just want to ask why I'm taking my family there.

07:39It was a very interesting thing

08:08I think we both left Andhra Pradesh, which was undivided

08:16So we both are from one state

08:19The Secretary of Treasury said that India is probably going to be the first country to have a bilateral trade agreement

08:26It's not a free trade, it's a bilateral trade

08:29It will be different trades

08:32I think India had already

08:34First of all, the negotiations were falling in the trade

08:40The most important thing about Donald Trump is that the trade barriers are not just tariffs

08:46There are tariffs and the imbalance

08:52Now, I don't know how many weeks ago India has bought a rough-hale for 7.4 billion dollars.

09:00I was surprised that in America, there was no notice that if India has got 7.4 for a rough-hale,

09:05then where will F-35?

09:08Which means that India is not going to buy unnecessary things, which is very good.

09:12But the trade of 43 to 48 billion dollar trade deficit will be filled.

09:18So, Trump will demand that they will buy some things.

09:22In India, the most challenging thing in trade is that if India will open its agricultural market or not.

09:30That is the trend.

09:31If India will open, then India will be very dangerous.

09:33And politically, it is very dangerous.

09:36Already farmers are not aroused.

09:39I am very happy.

09:42I am very happy.

09:43I am very happy.

09:44I am very happy.

09:45I am very happy.

09:46I am very happy.

09:47I am very happy.

09:48I am very happy.

09:49I am very happy.

09:50I am very happy.

09:51But it is important that this world's biggest voice is.

09:53You are seeing that a conservative trend is happening, Putin is happening,

09:58It is happening, and Donald Trump is happening.

10:01Putin, Narendra Modi, Donald Trump, Hungary, Argentina.

10:07What is happening with that?

10:09There are two things.

10:10One is democratic backsliding, civil society institutions,

10:14if we take the media or even independent judiciary.

10:17These are all dangerous.

10:19Progressive voices, it is important that they come together

10:24and decide that we are dangerous but there are some things

10:28for which we need to fight.

10:30I expect that when people go to the other place,

10:34they will learn that,

10:35for example, this is a semi-progressive party,

10:39you can call it Indian Congress.

10:41This state is run by a semi-progressive party

10:44where the majority politics do not work.

10:47So I think that progressives will go back to their countries

10:50and there is hope that we can fight.

10:54Thank you very much for talking about E.T.E.B.Bharat.

11:01It is very important to me, whether it be trade negotiations or deals, or whether it be a war or a war.

11:11Vikas Koshik, ETV Bharat, Hyderabad

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