Champions League Preview: Thrilling Matches and Controversy

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00:00All right, welcome back to Newswire here on SportsGrid.

00:02We've got Kyle Bond of Sporting News ready to break down everything happening in soccer,

00:05a preview of the Champions League today, a recap of yesterday, and we'll dive right in.

00:10Kyle, great to have you back here on Newswire.

00:12All right, so some really tight games being played in the Champions League, Barcelona,

00:16PSG, big wins a couple of weeks to go, smaller wins, I guess, yesterday, and it just, I guess,

00:22shows you, Kyle, that expect the unexpected in the Champions League this year.

00:27Yeah, absolutely. You're spot on.

00:30You know, the big wins from the first leg were really put to the test yesterday for both Barcelona

00:36and PSG. It was a real struggle for both of them.

00:39This is the classic situation of when a loss is a win, right?

00:43So they lost the game. Both of them lost the second leg yesterday, but ended up advancing

00:48anyways because of the aggregate scoreline.

00:50So both of them leaning heavily on their first leg wins, which you don't really want

00:57to do that when you come into this situation. You want to lock it down and solidify your

01:01spot pretty handily. It goes to show you when you're betting on Champions League games, especially

01:08later in the competition, in the knockout stage, road games in the Champions League are just

01:14flat out difficult. It doesn't matter the situation. It doesn't matter the opponent.

01:18I mean, Borussia Dortmund are in like eighth in the Bundesliga. They're having a really,

01:22really tough year and they put Barcelona on the ropes. Aston Villa, you know, they've had

01:28a pretty good season in the Premier League, but still they're sixth or seventh in the table

01:31and they put PSG on the ropes. So it doesn't matter who your opponent is, what the situation,

01:39the aggregate, whatever road games in the Champions League are difficult. And I think now you look

01:46at it moving forward, you go to today, Arsenal have to contest one against Real Madrid.

01:53Yeah. So let's get into that because, you know, obviously you got really good defense

01:58on one team and, you know, maybe not as much on another. Real Madrid, I think very obviously

02:04has to be the favorite here. But Kyle, the question is, will this be a close enough game?

02:09I mean, the odds makers don't usually give you plus 250 at a tie. That's sort of telling

02:13me that this could be 1-1, 2-2, something along those lines. How do you see this one playing

02:18out later today?

02:20Yeah, this is a really tough one, especially from a betting perspective, because Real Madrid

02:25are down 3-0 on aggregate. So they have to bring the aggregate scoreline back if they

02:30want to qualify for the semifinals. So they really need to have an explosive game.

02:35So all the odds are in favor of Real Madrid trying to bring the scoreline back. Now, in

02:44what manner they'll do that, it's hard to tell whether they'll shut it up early and then try

02:48to open it up late and score a bunch. They'll probably come out guns blazing and try to get

02:53one or two early and then settle the game down and then hit for a couple late is my guess.

02:59But when you're looking at this from a betting perspective, it's really difficult because

03:03if you go with the shots total, the Real Madrid shots odds are juice to hell. It's impossible

03:09to get any opening there because people expect Real Madrid to have a ton of shots on goal.

03:14They're going to try and bring this game back level. But the Gunners have one of the best

03:19defenses in Europe. It's not the best. They've lost Gabriel to an injury for the rest of the

03:25season, one of their two center backs. So they are a little bit weakened in that sense.

03:28Jacob Curior is not nearly as good, but they're still very, very good. It's what I like is the

03:37over is somehow not as skewed as the shots total. So I really liked the over. You can get over three

03:44goals here. If you, instead of playing the half goal, play the even goal at 3.0, you could get it

03:50at about even money. I really liked that because if Real Madrid go for it and get a couple of don't

03:55quite, you know, make it a crazy game, you still have that safety net of a push. Whereas if they

04:01really, you know, mess it up and get a couple early, you know, Arsenal have to get one themselves,

04:05which I think they can. Now you're in good shape. So I think that's the best way to play this is

04:12play the over on the 3.0 goal line. Now, let's talk about some of this, you know, controversy over

04:19the weekend with Killian Mbappe, one of the best players, you know, ever to play. You know, I saw

04:24some of the highlights here of the reason why he was suspended for what they're calling a tackle,

04:31I guess is what it's called in soccer. Why was the suspension reduced? Do you think that that was

04:35warranted? No, is the simple answer. I do not. Why? I can't explain. I have no idea why. It's a

04:44terrible, terrible tackle. And he, he comes flying in and stamps down on the, on the opponent's leg.

04:53It's, I mean, it's what they call in soccer, a leg breaking tackle. Like you, you can break

04:57someone's leg doing this, which is why it's warranting a red card. La Liga has reduced his

05:03suspension, which has everyone up in arms because theoretically, if he had his three game suspension,

05:09you look at their fixture list and they have two league games. And then the Copa del Rey final

05:14against Barcelona known as El Clasico, but he would not have been suspended for that El

05:19Clasico anyways, even under the regular three game suspension, which comes with a direct,

05:25a straight red card. So I think that's where a lot of people are getting confused.

05:31League suspensions only apply to the Copa del Rey, which is the domestic cup competition.

05:37If you get a suspension of four games or more. So because the red card comes with a traditional

05:42three game suspension, the only way he would have been suspended for this Copa del Rey final

05:47was if the Spanish Federation had increased his suspension and added additional games for

05:54excessive violent conduct, which does happen sometimes. But in this situation, it was reduced

06:00and everyone looked at the schedule and said, Oh my God, they're, they're reducing this, the

06:04suspension so he can play in El Clasico. And that's not really what's happening here,

06:08but it is weird and, and odd anyways. I don't know why they would have reduced his suspension.

06:14It's a really bad tackle and he should have gotten the regular requisite three games for a

06:18straight red card. All right, let's close out with the game today. Inter against Bayern Munich. My gosh,

06:24this seems like a really tough betting matchup here. Inter plus 160, Bayern Munich plus 150. My gosh,

06:30like, I mean, I don't know that I've even seen a line like this in the Champions League in a while.

06:36So is this too close to call? Is there a position you like on this one?

06:40So Inter come into this game up a goal on aggregate. They won 2-1 at Bayern and now they get to come

06:47home protecting an aggregate lead. It's a really interesting matchup because you have Inter who

06:53are the best defensive team in Europe. They've conceded three goals, all competition. And then

06:59you have Bayern Munich who are one of the best attacking teams in Europe, but they are missing

07:02their best player in Jamal Musiala. Now, by statistically, it didn't look like it mattered

07:08in the first leg, but it's going to matter. And I think Inter come away with this one.

07:12You can get some good numbers on the under here.

07:16All right. Thanks for coming on, Kyle. Really appreciate it.

07:18Thanks for coming on.

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