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  • 4/15/2025
In this episode of CrossTalk Bullhorns, host Peter Lavelle is joined by George Szamuely and Mark Sleboda to unpack the latest chaos in global politics and diplomacy.

๐Ÿ”ฅ Key topics discussed:
โ€“ Can Iran trust Trump again in any nuclear deal?
โ€“ Whatโ€™s REALLY going on with U.S. policy on Ukraine?
โ€“ The internal contradictions of Washingtonโ€™s foreign strategy
โ€“ A possible global trade war erupting on multiple fronts
โ€“ How shifting alliances are reshaping the world order

๐Ÿ’ฌ The panel brings sharp analysis, diverse perspectives, and no-nonsense commentary on the major geopolitical flashpoints of today.

๐ŸŽ™๏ธ Guests:
โ€“ George Szamuely (Senior Research Fellow, Global Policy Institute)
โ€“ Mark Sleboda (International Affairs and Security Analyst)

๐Ÿ“บ Donโ€™t miss this intense conversation on diplomacy, deception, and the dangerous games of geopolitics.

#CrossTalk #Bullhorns #IranDeal #Trump #UkraineCrisis #GlobalTradeWar #PeterLavelle #GeorgeSzamuely #MarkSleboda #RTNews #GeopoliticsToday #USForeignPolicy #MiddleEastTensions #UkraineConflict #WorldOrderShift
#CrossTalk
#Bullhorns
#IranDeal
#Trump2025
#USForeignPolicy
#UkraineWar
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#MarkSleboda
#DiplomacyCrisis
#Geopolitics2025
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#USvsIran
#TehranTrust
#UkraineUpdate
#BRICSvsWest
Transcript
00:00Welcome to Crosstalk Bullhorns, where all things are considered. I'm Peter Lavelle.
00:18Even if Iran is interested in a deal, why would Iran trust Trump? Also, where does Washington's
00:24policy on Ukraine stand? Well, I guess it depends on who you ask in the administration.
00:30Meanwhile, there's a global trade war. To discuss these issues and more, I'm joined by my guest,
00:35George Samueli in Budapest. He's a podcaster at The Gaggle, which can be found on YouTube and
00:39Locals. And here in Moscow, we cross to Mark Sloboda. He is an international relations and
00:44security analyst. All right, gentlemen, Crosstalk rules in effect. That means you can jump anytime
00:48you want, and I always appreciate it. All right, let's start out with Mark here in Moscow. Before
00:52we talk about the talks that went on in Moscow and in Oman, just a very general, but I think a very
00:59important question, what is going on in the world, Mark? I mean, because, I mean, all three
01:05of us, you know, we're news junkies. I mean, this is what we do. It's hard to keep up. It's really hard
01:13to keep up. What is there a paradigm shift here going on? I mean, this, I, you know, I want to talk
01:20about Ukraine and Iran, obviously, but the trade war is kind of a, it's not an epiphenomenon of what
01:28we're seeing. Go ahead, Mark. Yeah, so zoom out, big picture view, right? What is going on now in
01:34recent years and in the next few years? Exactly the terminology used, a paradigm shift, right?
01:42Geopolitical tectonic shakes. The U.S.-led Western global hegemony, that unipolar world order is over,
01:52but nothing has solidly arisen to replace it yet. So we're living in an amorphous and extremely
02:00dangerous time. The conflict in Ukraine on its own was already a world order changing conflict,
02:09but that has been exacerbated in recent days with potentials for conflicts in the Persian Gulf with
02:17Iran. The U.S. obvious pivot with the intent to provoke a war with China and the Pacific,
02:23and now Trump's global trade war, where he is attempting to reset the conditions of the global
02:32neoliberal system of globalization that the U.S. itself created, no longer serving the U.S.'s purposes,
02:41and Trump, rather than negotiating new deals, is attempting to dictate it at the barrel of a
02:49tariff gun to the whole world at once. And what he's doing more than anything else is uniting the
02:58rest of the world in suspicion and defiance of the United States. Yeah, because, you know, George,
03:05I think Mark describes it very well, but can Trump pull it off? I mean, we have, all three of us have
03:11discussed for years and years how American industry has been hollowed out. It's basically a financialized
03:18economy. Is that enough to end one system and impose another, as Mark said, at the end of a tariff
03:27gun? Because all of these things that we're going to talk about today are interrelated, George.
03:32Well, you're right, Peter, and it's very, very hard to say whether Trump will indeed succeed in what
03:39he's trying to do. But there's no question that for many years, American policymakers, American pundits
03:46have articulated the problem, which is that this empire that the United States has been running since
03:541945, but also especially since 1991, isn't serving the interests of the American people.
04:02It's serving the periphery of the empire, but it's not serving the Americans. And so there was a leader
04:09was bound to come along. I mean, there was Ross Perot 30 years ago, there was Pat Buchanan, and now
04:15finally Trump, who's saying, hey, we need to do something about this, because the American people are
04:21really getting very little out of it, while everyone else is getting rich. And it's not just simply the
04:26Europeans are getting very rich. And in exchange for these security guarantees, they have a very
04:31comfortable lifestyle. And they're running trade surpluses with the United States, which means
04:38essentially jobs in the United States are being exported to Europe. And it's also true in South
04:43Korea. It's also true in Japan. And then, of course, there was the big enchilada, which was China
04:50bringing China into the world trading system. So there was bound to come along a leader who was
04:55going to challenge that. The question then is, the one that you asked me, is will Trump succeed?
05:01Well, we don't know. I mean, there's obviously huge resistance towards it. But I do think that
05:08it is a healthy phenomenon. I don't think it's anything that one should be against that when
05:14a United States articulates national interest. They said, well, we're not running an empire. We're
05:20concerned with what's good for Americans. And that's what all political leaders around the world
05:25should be. And I think that's why Sergei Lavrov the other day in Turkey said, we're on the same page
05:32as the United States. The new American leadership is concerned with their own national interest.
05:39We also are concerned with our national interest. Therefore, there is something to talk about.
05:43And I think that could and should be the basis for some kind of genuine diplomatic engagement among
05:51the great power. Yeah, well, having a trillion dollar defense budget is kind of an insurance policy
05:56that the U.S. will impose its will. I'm not convinced that Trump's approach is good for the
06:02American people. It will be, as usual, it'll be good for very, very wealthy people that advance
06:08their interests here. But let's stick to the agenda. Mark, there was the meeting in Oman.
06:14It was built up. A lot of threatening language coming from the administration, particularly Donald
06:21Trump and his esteemed guest, Benjamin Netanyahu, in the Oval Office. And then it was agreed to have
06:28more talks, which is good, Mark. Yeah. So right off the bat, the U.S. is already attempting to,
06:41shall we say, hoodwink Iran, right? Evidently, it was agreed that these talks would be mostly kept quiet
06:49and that they would be indirect. So the Trump administration goes right out and announces the
06:56talks and says in contradiction to what the Iranians that they would be direct consultations that can't
07:04make the Iranians happy right right out of the gate. But they did meet in Oman, which, you know,
07:11has a diplomatic tradition of, shall we say, neutrality of being beyond the geopolitical fray.
07:21And Witkoff, who evidently is the only diplomat that Donald Trump has, this real estate developer,
07:32with the demeanor, with complete lack of any diplomatic training in any international relations
07:39education, he's the equivalent of a used car salesman, as far as I'm concerned. But he's Trump's
07:45friend, and he's not a member of the deep state, so he doesn't come with the ideological baggage.
07:50So, you know, take the good with the bad there, I guess. But they met with the Iranian foreign
07:57minister, Aragchi, and they described the talks as constructive and that they will continue.
08:03The talks were held indirectly with the Omanis shuttling between rooms, but at the end,
08:09they did come to each other and shake hands and say hi face to face. I think the reality here is
08:18that neither the United States nor Iran wants war right now. I agree. Right now, right? We'll leave
08:25that caveat there. The U.S. simply is in a very bad geo-military position. It doesn't have enough
08:31air defense missiles. It doesn't have enough missiles. It's wasted too many in Ukraine. It needs
08:37to pivot to China. It's playing whack-a-mole against the Houthis in Yemen. And it's wasting
08:43and wasting something it doesn't have enough of. It can't afford a war defending Israel from Iran's
08:50much more powerful and more plentiful long-range strike capability than they've ever had before.
08:59Iran is facing threats to its sovereignty in these talks, but it doesn't really want a nuclear weapon.
09:07It wants nuclear breakout capability. Enriching uranium is a right of all countries who are not
09:15nuclear weapon holders.
09:17And is it having greatโ€”but being at a breakout point, that's their insurance policy.
09:23That's their insurance policy. But they can afford, I think, to placate the U.S. a little bit because
09:30Russia, with their new strategic partnership, is building them an air defense and electronic warfare
09:37deterrent, a conventional deterrent. They just need time. They need a few years to get that in place
09:44and as their partnerships with Russia and China solidify. So I think that both countries want to
09:52play for a time right now. The only one who wants a war is Netanyahu.
09:56Yeah. Well, you know, George, you and I have talked about this a lot. And we all know that it was
10:01Donald Trump that walked away from the JCPOA. But that's the only thing they're actually going to get.
10:08It's going to be 2.0. Because everything else that members of the Trump administration have demanded,
10:15you know, getting rid of long-range missiles, cutting off its support for different resistance
10:23groups. None of that's going to happen here. But a nuclear deal. And that's why I said in my
10:30introduction, why would Iran trust this guy, Donald Trump? He walked away from it. But that's the only
10:34thing, really, the only game in town. George?
10:37Well, that's an excellent question. And it's absolutely true that that's the best deal that
10:44is possible. Because Iran has made clear, first of all, that we're not interested in nuclear weapons.
10:51And we are interested in, and this is said by the Iranian foreign minister, we are interested in
10:59assuaging the security concerns of other countries. And therefore, we're willing to work with them and
11:06say, yeah, we don't want a nuclear weapons capability. That deal, a possible deal like
11:13that, is on the table. Now, the problem is, will Trump take it? Because there are going to be a lot
11:20of voices in his ear, especially from the Israel lobby, from Netanyahu, who are going to be pressing
11:26him and telling him horrific stories about, you know, Iran, the, you know, death to America, and these
11:31are crazies, and, you know, they want to destroy Israel, and they want to destroy the United States.
11:37You can't possibly give them anything. And that might be persuasive. On the other hand,
11:42if he signs a deal, which is simply JCPOA 2.0, that would be a big diplomatic victory for him.
11:49And he can then parade around and say, give me my Nobel Prize already. I accomplished this.
11:56And, but the problem here is the same thing as what happened with North Korea during his first term,
12:04is that he made all the right gestures. And then it seemed like it was a serious diplomatic effort
12:09to achieve security in the Korean peninsula. But he allowed others to intervene, namely John Bolton,
12:19to ensure that there would be no deal. He still talks nostalgically about his great relationship with
12:25the North Korean leader. But the fact is that he had an opportunity to move.
12:32Before we go to the break, Mark, I mean, is Trump just turning out more bark than bite?
12:37Yeah, I mean, I think that's, I mean, Trump has a lot of bite. There's no question there. He's,
12:43he's a rabid dog, right? And he will go off sometimes unexpectedly. But most of it, most of it is
12:50bluster, as we've seen, I think, you know, with the tariff war. But my real fear is that what the
12:57Trump administration really wants with Iran is not this question of nuclear weapons. U.S. intelligence
13:04makes clear that Iran has no nuclear weapons program. What I'm afraid is they're going to demand
13:11that Iran stop all support for the Houthis, for Hezbollah. All right, Mark, on that, as usual,
13:18we have to go to a hard break. And after that hard break, we'll continue our discussion on some
13:22real new stay with RT. Welcome back to Crosstalk Bullhorns, where all things are considered. I'm
13:32Peter Lebeau. All right. I want to go back to Mark. You want to finish your point before we talk about
13:37Ukraine? Sure. I think just the real danger is that behind these demands on nuclear enrichment,
13:44that the Trump administration will also make demands that Iran stop all support, you know,
13:49for the mostly Shia axis of resistance, because the U.S. is allowed to have proxy states around the
13:57world, including Ukraine. But Iran isn't. And if that that might be a demand on Iran's sovereignty and
14:06foreign policy that it can't allow. And that may be and that may placate, at least from a policy
14:13perspective, of the Israelis, if the U.S. isn't determined to have a military conflict. All right,
14:19George, let's switch gears, because a lot happened, or I think it happened when it comes to Ukraine
14:25these past few days here. We have our cast of characters. We have Steve Witkoff, again, a jack of
14:32all trades, as Mark pointed out. And then we have Keith Kellogg. And they're telling very different
14:36stories about the Trump administration's policy on Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Russians are still
14:43listening to a wide variety, a wide array of ideas coming from the West. They're sitting pretty,
14:51sitting patient. George. Well, that's right. And again, we should at least credit Trump for making
15:00an effort. I mean, he is, I think, making an effort to bring this war to an end. But he's trying to do
15:05all sorts of different things, hoping that something or other will work out. So with Ukraine,
15:12he's hoping to persuade them, well, if we sign this extraction deal with minerals, with gas from
15:19infrastructure ports, you will take that as a security guarantees. And then you'll stop,
15:25you know, nagging us about NATO membership or a military security guarantee. So far,
15:32the Ukrainians have said, no, they might sign this deal. But they have said, no, we're not going to
15:36take this as a security guarantee. But in the meantime, you've got Kellogg talking about,
15:43it's hard enough because he's walked back his original statement, but simply saying that, well,
15:49we're going to have a kind of a division of Ukraine along the lines that we divided Germany.
15:54We're going to have a kind of a Western half occupied by European forces. Then we're going
16:01to have something in the middle. That's going to be Ukraine. Then we're going to have a demilitarized
16:05zone. And then we're going to have the Eastern part occupied by Russia. And although it does sound
16:10crazy, however, they've moved the ball a long way from where the United States-
16:17Well, I don't know. I'm not really sure.
16:19A few months ago. I mean, this is a, we're talking about a very different situation now than we were.
16:24Yeah, but I think that there are two different things in play here and they can't, they can't
16:29be maintained for much longer because there's, I'm going to direct this to Mark. There's an acceptance
16:35that the US and Russia want to improve relations. Okay. That's one layer of this, but that's not
16:42going to fix Ukraine. And I think that's the frustration that the Russians have, because again,
16:47if you go through, even people that are paying attention to the story, there's so much obsession
16:52with the ceasefire. I don't know how many times it has to be said, the Russians want a peace deal
16:57and then we can have a ceasefire. But Witkoff and Kellogg and everybody else is still in,
17:03well, we have to have a ceasefire. I mean, this is why it's a log jam. And I'm getting frustrated
17:08because there's a lot of talk, but there's not much movement. Mark.
17:12Yeah, I think the Russians actually aren't frustrated. I think they're fairly content
17:16with what's going on because they're not interested in a ceasefire. And I think they realize
17:20that any idea of a diplomatic settlement, at least for the time being is dead in the water.
17:26Right. And they're not just sitting there. They're going straight forward on the ground,
17:31major offensive, starting new pressure all along the contact line. They're not pausing or hesitating
17:38or scratching their head for a second. The Trump administration, meanwhile, is floundering like
17:44a dying fish topped out of the water. There's no agreement within the administration. Trump has
17:50some idea. Witkoff and a few others seem more inclined to the way to end this conflict if you're
17:58serious is to agree to Russia's SMO demands because Russia has all the cards. Meanwhile, figures like
18:07Waltz and Kellogg and likely Rubio are putting effectively trying to put a spanner in the
18:15works. They're trying to stop at all of this top of a ceasefire of British and French troops on the
18:21ground of occupation zones. That's like putting a red flag in front of Russia. Right. There's no way
18:27they'll agree to any of that. And I think they know that. So I think if Trump is smart, he'll walk away
18:34from this mess. You know, wipe his hands, say it's all Biden's fault. I tried. Well, well, well,
18:41well, Mark, I mean, President Trump extended the sanctions against Russia. Let me go to George,
18:49George, because, again, you have to have talks to get some kind of resolution. And I'm not against
18:55it. And you know that. OK, but I want results, too. So, OK, the sanctions are extended. I guess
19:02the big tell is going to be if there's going to be a big appropriations for Ukraine that will tell us
19:07what this administration's about. Just because you want something is you can't will it. OK,
19:13I sometimes think Trump just wants to will something. OK. And when you have minions like
19:19he has surrounded around him and that that cabinet meeting he had was disgusting. I mean,
19:25it's better for not for me to say. But anyway, George, what's the next step here? Because
19:32I'm going to end the conflict in one day. I want it done in the first hundred days. I want it done
19:40before Easter. You can't keep doing this. Well, you can't. I mean, on the other hand, of course,
19:46if he succeeds, then I don't everyone will forget. Oh, I know you said it'll be one day. You said it'll
19:50be 100 days. But but nonetheless, even if it takes six months or a year. Well, I think even
19:56Whitwickoff said he said Trump said he would end it in one day. He just didn't say which day,
20:00which I thought was a good. That's right. So I think he is moving. I mean, he's already moved
20:08a great deal from where the U.S. position was. The question then is he I think Mark alluded to this.
20:16I mean, there can be no settlement unless the United States essentially cuts off Ukraine and
20:23said, well, that's it. We're not going to do this anymore. You know, we have to bring this thing to
20:26an end. It's in your interest that basically that you stop the killing of your own people.
20:32It's in Europe's interest. It's in Russia's interest. It's in the world's interest for this
20:36war to come to an end. The question then is and I think this is what Trump thinks. I mean,
20:40I think Trump seems to be pretty much alone. And I assume Whitcoff is because he's simply Trump's
20:46man. He's just believes this. That's clearly where they where they want to go. Question then is,
20:52does Trump have the strength, the will, strength to actually get that done? I'm not at all sure he
20:58has. It's the same with Iran. I mean, is it is he ready to accept a deal that's obviously
21:03available to him? Here's something that's available. But but Trump is kind of trying all sorts of
21:08different things. You know, well, he tried to keep Ukraine happy. Then he tries to keep Russia
21:13happy. Then he tries to then he expresses his frustration with both sides, sometimes with
21:17Russia, sometimes with Ukraine. So he's not really getting there. But he may he may yet get there.
21:22Well, I think the problem is, you know, Mark, I think that the there are America doesn't have
21:28diplomats. Maybe maybe Whitcoff is the only thing they have. OK. And, you know, and there are pluses
21:34and minuses. I mean, I like a straight a straight shooter. I thought the interview with with Tucker
21:39Carlson was interesting, not enlightening, but it kind of was a window into a way maybe how Trump
21:45thinks. But it's the U.S. just isn't interested in compromise. That's the problem. It has to be
21:54a win lose. That's how they see the world and everything. And that's why they're having such
22:00difficulty coming to terms. You're not going to get everything you want. That's what diplomacy is
22:06about. Yeah, I think, first of all, there's no recognition in the United States that the U.S.
22:11has lost this war. They're not some, you know, third party mediating this conflict. They are the
22:18principal instigator of this conflict. And the principal one carrying it. The New York Times has
22:23admitted that in in detail of how involved they were. Mark Rubio has admitted that it was a that it
22:29was a proxy war against Russia in Ukraine. But they haven't come to they can't admit that they
22:35lost the war. And, you know, Trump still has a child's mentality of of thinking he can bluster and
22:43demand and be handed everything on a plate. I mean, he referred to all the world's countries coming to
22:48his door and kissing his posterior. Right. And laughing about it like, oh, sir, sir, we'll give you
22:57whatever we want. Russia, China. They're not going to give you everything you want. They're they're in
23:02a different league and they're not U.S. vassal states. I think that that Trump is is going to
23:08waffle and he's going to hesitate. I predict that he's going to try to, you know, get he's going to
23:15get stuck in a middle road where he's not going to approve any new big weapons package for Ukraine,
23:22although U.S. long term contracts through the military industrial complex will continue.
23:28But likewise, he's going to increase sanctions against Russia as as as part of Putin is not
23:36agreeing to my. But but Mark, again, going back, how does that improve the bilateral relationship?
23:43You these two things cannot exist in the air at the same time.
23:47And well, that's what the Russians want. They want bilateral to be a different track
23:52from the Ukraine settlement. Right. And it's not clear yet that they can be they are moving forward
24:00slowly on the bilateral track. But the you know, any idea of a peace settlement is is I'm sorry,
24:08it's rip. It's dead. I don't I don't think there's any possibility of it, at least for the next year,
24:12if not more. The rush. That's what the Russians are talking about. And Russia is going to launch
24:16major offensives. They're happening right now. That is not going to help discussions any any in
24:24that matter either. So I think, you know, we're going to be in a muddled time for the foreseeable
24:31future on this. And the only one with with motivation, drive and purpose is Russia. And it's
24:38on the battlefield. So, George, this is turning into Trump's war.
24:44Well, it is. And I think that's Trump's problem. I think he could have absolutely on day one have
24:51walked away from this war. So Victoria, Victoria Newland won.
24:56Yeah. I mean, and this was urged upon him by Steve Bannon from, you know, from November the 5th
25:02through to January the 20th. Bannon said over and over again at his show, walk away from this
25:08right away because it becomes your war. And really with Trump, that the clock is ticking. I mean,
25:15you know, contrary to all the talk about he's going to run for a third term, the clock is ticking.
25:20And there's very limited time now available. And there's all sorts of other problems. And then
25:26he's going to be in the same situation that Biden was. And I think that in the face of a
25:32Russian offensive, I mean, if things don't go well for Ukraine, I think that will escalate
25:37American involvement. I think Trump will get, you know, he's already expressing, I don't like all
25:41this bombing and I'm really angry. I think that will escalate Trump's involvement.
25:45And I think that just moves up the timeline for Marco Rubio to declare he's going to run for
25:50president of the United States because Trump couldn't end these wars. As all the time we have,
25:55I want to thank my guests in Budapest and here in Moscow. And of course, I want to thank our viewers
25:58for watching us here, RT. See you next time. And remember, crosstalk rules.

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