Florida vs. Auburn: Betting Analysis & Player Update

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00:00Game number one, Mark 609 Eastern, game number two, 849 Eastern, it's Florida-Auburn, it's

00:05Houston and Duke.

00:06But the game I want to focus on right now is Florida versus Auburn.

00:11Before we get into the actual lines themselves and where the moves might be going and where

00:15they wind up by Saturday, let me ask you this question because it's a big one.

00:19Jani Broome, one of the single best players in college basketball, comes up a little bit

00:23lame in his game against Michigan State, holding his elbow.

00:26Any thoughts for you, any trepidation, that if you are going to back Auburn, you're not

00:31so sure he's healthy or you're not worried about it at this point?

00:37I mean, I feel like we would be hearing a lot more if there is legitimate concern as

00:40to whether he's going to be able to play or not.

00:44Was it more of a Willis Reid type deal than anything else, you know, where he just comes

00:49in for a shot in the arm and then gets out of dodge?

00:51I mean, you know, I don't know.

00:54I feel pretty secure in the fact that Jani Broome is going to be playing here, so I don't

00:58have much concern.

01:01Let's take a look, Mark, at the odds themselves and where they sit now.

01:03The FanDuel Sportsbook opened this game up minus two and a half at a minus 115 price

01:07for the Florida Gators.

01:09The line currently sits today minus two and a half, minus 114 for the Florida Gators.

01:14We look at the total itself.

01:16Opened up at FanDuel New Jersey, 161 and a half.

01:19Now sits today at 160 and a half.

01:21So today, on a Wednesday, before these games play on Saturday, what's your thought process

01:26on the line, where it opened and also where you think that line might actually be come

01:30tip off on Saturday night?

01:34I think the number opened, correct.

01:35I made it minus two, minus two and a half myself, so I didn't have any real disagreements

01:40with it.

01:41I would tell you, I think the over is correlated to Florida and the under is correlated to

01:45Auburn.

01:46That said, I do think Auburn is the sharp side here.

01:50For as many people who have backed Florida this year along the way and the way that they've

01:55done it and the way Florida beat Auburn earlier this year, that line probably feels shorter

02:01to certain people than what you would think.

02:05So I would consider this thing as probably going to move to three within the next 24

02:10hours as people continue to back Florida.

02:13And I think that's sort of, in a certain sense, what sharper bettors are waiting for is for

02:17the three to pop up.

02:18So let's get one full possession here and make sure that we have it in our back pocket

02:23if needed.

02:24But, you know, there's an argument to say that, look, you know, I don't think the spread's

02:29going to matter in either one of these games.

02:30I think you just pick the winner.

02:31I think the dog wins outright of the favorite wins and covers by a wide margin.

02:35It's one of those type of feelings.

02:37And I would, I would argue, I think both of these games may be blowouts.

02:41Whichever team you have winning, I think is going to do so convincingly by eight to 10

02:44or it's not really going to be that close.

02:46So just because we have four number one seeds doesn't mean that the games are going to be

02:52100% equitable.

02:53And I don't say that like I'm expecting bad basketball, but I think you're going to get

02:58one side dominant, the other side not.

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