Years of conflict compound Myanmar quake disaster

DW (English)

The UN has warned that a severe lack of medical equipment is hindering the emergency response to Friday's massive earthquake in Myanmar. The country's ongoing civil war is also having an effect, with Myanmar's ruling junta accused of carrying out airstrikes after the quake.

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00:00And we can now speak to Hetet Tihansah.

00:03He's a postdoctoral fellow at the School of Public Policy and Global Affairs

00:07at the University of British Columbia.

00:09Welcome to DW.

00:11This earthquake hit a country that, as you know,

00:15was already struggling after years of conflict.

00:19What kind of an impact do you think this will have on the people,

00:24this natural disaster right now?

00:28Thank you, Marianne.

00:30So, as you have mentioned, the area impacted most by the earthquake,

00:35the Zagai and Manli region,

00:37are also the areas that have seen the most intense conflict over the past four years.

00:41So this disaster is on top of the destruction and loss of life

00:45that we've seen for the past four years.

00:47And the military's call for international aid

00:50is a bit of a departure from its actions during earlier major disasters,

00:55such as the Cyclone Nergis in 2008.

00:58And it is welcome to see the assistance from the European Union

01:03and also aid convoys from India, China, Singapore and Russia.

01:06But the challenges remain to address the people trapped in it

01:14and then also the economic loss that we've seen

01:18because of the major destruction in infrastructure that we've seen.

01:21Two of the three major airports have been damaged by the earthquake.

01:24Manli and Nipido airport.

01:26And as earlier mentioned,

01:29certain groups such as the National Unity Government

01:32has called for a partial ceasefire.

01:34But we have seen reports of airstrikes and continued fighting in certain regions.

01:38So right now, the necessity is, of course,

01:43the continuation of the ceasefire and enforcement of the ceasefire.

01:48But without that, the destruction and loss of life that we've seen

01:53will continue and will worsen the region that has already been

01:57significantly affected by conflict and destruction for the past four years.

02:01Well, as you mentioned, it was really a departure

02:04on the part of the junta to actually ask for international assistance

02:09to cope with this enormous devastation.

02:12But could this somehow help move Myanmar out of international isolation?

02:18Could there be some sort of shift in the attitude of the ruling junta?

02:24Sure. So while this is a welcoming gesture,

02:28the main roots and main sources of international isolation remain.

02:34That is the continuation of the military coup

02:37and continued fighting between the military

02:40and other major actors in the conflict,

02:43such as the National Unity Government

02:45and key ethnic organizations.

02:49And the state of emergency has been extended for seven times

02:55and is set to expire on August 3rd, 2025.

02:58But yet we do not see any signs of the election to continue.

03:08And also the other aspect is that there has not been

03:12any major developments in sustained ceasefire between these major groups.

03:16So in order for isolation to stop,

03:19there needs to be the enforcement of the ceasefire

03:24and also the negotiation between the military

03:28and also the armed groups and major groups,

03:31such as the National Unity Government.

03:33But without that, we will not see, aside from the aid,

03:40which is of course a positive development,

03:42it remains to be seen the major changes

03:46in the international isolation that the country faces today.

03:49Well, could the junta possibly even use this disaster

03:53to increase its grip on power, taking advantage of it?

03:58Yeah. There is potential for the military to increase its grip of power

04:03in places that are already under its control,

04:06such as parts of the major city, Mandalay,

04:10which is probably the place most impacted by the earthquake

04:14with severe loss of light, mostly coming from this area,

04:17and also control over the other major cities such as Naypyidaw and Yangon.

04:24But it remains to be seen how it will increase its grip of power

04:29in places that are under civilian resistance group control,

04:33ethnic groups control, because these groups are also trying

04:38to increase its performance legitimacy in areas that are under its control

04:44and usually actively involving in search and rescue operations

04:48in the Ghan region and so on.

04:50So, yeah, it might be limited in places that are not under its control.

04:55That was Hetet Tiasaw from the University of British Columbia.

05:00Many thanks indeed for all of your insights today.

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