Data Journalist’s Alarming Covid-19 Projection For India

Brut India

“The cases in India have now started doubling in four to five days, perhaps even quicker.” Data journalist Rukmini S told Brut why she thinks India will be home to nearly 10 lakh Covid-19 cases by May.

Transcript

00:00The reducing of the doubling time and a faster spread, a real explosion, especially as testing

00:09is expanded, is a frightening direction that this could go in as well.

00:29What's happening in India so far is very much in line with the trajectories of other countries.

00:35And what we're seeing is that cases in India have now started doubling in four to five

00:40days, perhaps even quicker.

00:48You know, I did a number of things.

00:50One is a sort of crude estimate by doubling the number of cases every five or six days.

01:00The other thing was to compare with estimates put up by a team of biostatisticians who have

01:06also done similar exponential increases, looked at that, but they've also tried to fit it

01:12within the curves of other countries.

01:16So these aren't, you know, simple doubling exercises alone.

01:21These are compared with the trajectories of other countries.

01:31I understand where this mistrust comes from and I don't, it isn't something I would dismiss

01:38of and I don't think it's wrong that people feel this way.

01:44These estimates seem crude, they seem to not factor in things that are changing in

01:49the world.

01:50They seem too easy, they seem too frightening.

01:53So for all of these reasons, I can understand why people mistrust them.

01:57I'm sure there's also, you know, I'm sure science and data communicators have also been

02:03lacking in explaining this well enough.

02:08The two biggest thing I'd say stats could do right now is one, give people a very real

02:13idea of the size and scale of what we're facing.

02:18The other thing is to help inform our response, particularly in terms of preparedness of health

02:25infrastructure.

02:27So if this is the scale of one million to several million by mid-May, we know how much

02:34we need to ramp up our health infrastructure.

02:36We know how much protective equipment we need to get in a hurry to our frontline defenders.

02:42So, you know, it's the first thing to arm ourselves with numbers in this fight.

02:47So the states that have the worst health infrastructure are really in for a rough ride.

02:54And health infrastructure is not something that can be built overnight.

02:58Even if we, you know, take over stadiums or private hospitals or any other large venues,

03:08it seems that in a subsection of cases, extremely specialized care will be required.

03:13So there's social distancing and there's lockdowns, which the government is doing right

03:37now.

03:38Also an attempt to ramp up health infrastructure.

03:42But, you know, there's possible drug discovery.

03:46Those are the sort of better case scenarios, but the reducing of the doubling time and

03:51a faster spread, a real explosion, especially as testing is expanded, is a frightening direction

03:59that this could go in as well.

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