#12 Colorado State vs. #5 Memphis: An Unexpected NCAA Upset?

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00:00Colorado State, a team on the 12th line, is favored against a 5-seed in Memphis.

00:08DRS, we continue to break down this game, 2 p.m. Eastern Time, in Seattle today.

00:13It is going to be one of the more compelling in this round of 64 Friday at the Men's Big Dance.

00:19You said Memphis is being slightly discredited based on the odds.

00:22I would have to agree. Here's why Memphis is a 5-seed.

00:26Here is why the power ratings and the metrics don't love the Tigers.

00:30Memphis is a 5-seed because of the strength of their non-conference schedule

00:35and what they did in that non-con schedule.

00:38Memphis holds 5 wins against fellow tournament teams,

00:42and oh, by the way, in all 5 of those wins against fellow tournament teams,

00:47the Tigers did cover and the total pushed to the over.

00:51The Tigers, though, not loved by the metrics because they play in the American,

00:56they were not overwhelmingly impressive in the American,

00:59just 8-13 against the spread in conference action despite winning the AAC.

01:05And they needed to win to claim that automatic bid.

01:08No other American team in to the Big Dance.

01:11So the committee, based on their non-conference wins against NCAA tournament teams,

01:16they're on the 5-line.

01:18But Donnie, we have said this, there are 25 teams that are rated higher in Ken Palm

01:24that are lower on a seed line in the NCAA tournament than that of Penny Hardaway

01:29and his Memphis Tigers. It is why they are catching even just a point and a half

01:33against CSU today.

01:35Yeah, exactly. And there's not a lot of life to that Memphis program for me.

01:39They'd have a lot of people, hey, this is one of my teams that can make a run.

01:42It's one of those games, again, where a lot of people circled and said Colorado State

01:45is the better team, even though one team is a 5 seed and one team is a 12,

01:48which, again, on a year-to-year basis, that's always the matchup we look for

01:51at the 12-5. So I do think it makes some sense.

01:53But when you do look at the metrics and the numbers and go back and forth,

01:56I guess Memphis turns it over a little bit too much.

01:58But both of these teams seem pretty even up to me.

02:01I'm just as a pure fade to Memphis, not necessarily on, oh, I don't think Memphis

02:05can handle themselves because they won a lot of basketball games.

02:08But again, you're questioning the competition.

02:10And even when they got into the American tournament,

02:12slipping by their first two-round games here, those are the expectations.

02:16But also, as I pointed out before the break, I liked Colorado State a lot better

02:20a few days ago, not because of Colorado State, because I was giving the nod

02:23to that conference saying it's a conference that maybe not a lot of people watch,

02:27but based on some of these Ken Palm rankings, they're right up there at the top

02:30and they should be able to handle their business.

02:32So today, looking at what that quote-unquote tough conference did so far,

02:36it's like, man, is Colorado State really that good?

02:39Now they can reset the market for the Mountain West with a nice victory over Memphis,

02:42but again, confidence-wise, not as high as I was just a few short days ago here,

02:47but still think Colorado State's the better team and will win this game.

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