Menakar Dampak Sentimen Pengesahan UU TNI ke Pasar Modal

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"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Market Buzz, Jumat (21/03/2025) dengan Tema Menakar Dampak Sentimen Pengesahan UU TNI ke Pasar Modal".

Transcript

00:00Let's go to the spotlight market where EISG strengthens 1.1% to 6,381 shares.

00:11And indeed, the conglomeration shares are back on track, as we have reported.

00:16There is a sectoral strengthening technology.

00:19DCII strengthens 20% to 166,725 shares.

00:24And the next information, the shareholder of Prajogopang is borrowing 1.77 million brand shares.

00:29And the share is up 5.6%.

00:31From the economic agenda, you can see the information on the screen.

00:37The Federal Reserve, then from Japan, the Consumer Price Index,

00:42from South Korea, the Producer Price Index, and other global economic agendas,

00:47including China, Foreign Currency Planting.

00:49Next, from the domestic agenda, MI10, there will be RUPS from Bangdanamon,

00:55then also from DFAM, MINA, WINR, Ex-Dividend Tunai from BCA.

01:04Later we will monitor in the middle of the Ex-Dividend Tunai, what are the moves from BCA.

01:09We are waiting for an update from the Asian Stock Exchange in the middle of weakening,

01:13thin from the US Stock Exchange, Asia is also weakening.

01:18There is the Times, Singapore fell 0.27%, KOSPI fell 0.13%,

01:24Hang Seng, Hong Kong fell 2.23%, and Nikkei rose 0.37% from Japan.

01:38It has been connected through a video conference with Iburita Efendi,

01:41Investment Consultant and Founder of Indonesia Investment Education.

01:45Good morning, Iburita.

01:47Good morning, how are you?

01:49I'm great, thank you for joining us this morning.

01:52Iburita, are you abroad or in Indonesia?

01:58I'm still in Indonesia, because we are still monitoring the index.

02:03Still monitoring, there is still a chance, right?

02:05Although compared to today, it means that next week, on the 28th, the market will close on Monday.

02:14The government, especially the president,

02:17held a meeting with a number of ministers and the chairman, Luhut Bin Sarpanjaitan,

02:24and the news was about the entry of capital market movements,

02:29and there was a follow-up comment from the chairman, Luhut Bin Sarpanjaitan,

02:33who said that the TNI law will not affect the capital market, but will be a positive sentiment.

02:41How do you see the attention, especially from the president,

02:46to the current capital market movements, which can be said to be quite extreme?

02:54So we have to appreciate the fact that the capital market is so important for our government.

03:01That's why we immediately see some quick steps,

03:04as soon as the index is sharply corrected, there is a deficit from government representatives,

03:09then from the OJK, they immediately made a decision that gave a fresh breeze to the committee,

03:16that they can buy back without a rupture, like what happened before the COVID-19 incident.

03:21So this is still a step that we must appreciate.

03:23And then the president also gathered capital market players to discuss,

03:29maybe to hear opinions or input.

03:32Actually, today there is also an event at CNBC,

03:36and it also gathers capital market players.

03:39But yes, the event is from morning to noon.

03:42So I see it as a very positive thing.

03:44Indeed, the government is so active to ensure that our index can survive.

03:50Indeed, there are many issues, both negative from the regional and domestic.

03:55Okay, we know that when the Samkabung Stock Index on March 18th was quite deep,

04:00even 7%, and the stock market did a trading halt,

04:04in the afternoon, the head of the DPR RI, Soef Midasco, and his group immediately came.

04:09And this is the first time the Indonesian Stock Exchange has been visited by the DPR.

04:14Okay, the head of the National Economic Council, or DEN, Luhut Binsar Panjaitan,

04:18insisted that we should go to the TNI laws,

04:22not affecting the condition of domestic economic investment.

04:25In fact, in his opinion, this can maintain a positive sentiment for the economy.

04:28But there were many rumors last night, especially from students,

04:31and there are still many who are a bit pessimistic about it.

04:34How do you see this sentiment going to the capital market?

04:40Actually, the statement from Talhut must be seen first by the market response.

04:46It seems that the market has been very worried since yesterday

04:50with the involvement of the TNI in the sector.

04:55So let's see first, is there any transparency?

05:01If it's transparent, it shouldn't cause much concern.

05:07Then foreign investors may also see it as a risk,

05:11because they see the instability of democracy and the state of affairs.

05:14But I see, we have to see first,

05:17after the revision, how they will sit in those important positions.

05:23Will they just keep an eye on it,

05:27but not too actively involved?

05:30I don't think it will be too provocative.

05:35So we still have to wait for the next step.

05:39We are waiting for the next step. What is the transparency like?

05:42Do you agree with the statement from the government

05:45that this is actually a positive sentiment for the economy?

05:49But it can't be denied that the capital market usually reacts first.

05:53When something happens, it usually goes down first,

05:56if it's negative. If it's positive, it's the same.

05:59If something positive happens in the future,

06:02the market usually goes up first.

06:04You don't see that the current extreme turmoil in the capital market

06:07reflects the future that may have been anticipated from now on.

06:11What do you think about this?

06:15I think it's normal.

06:17If a new government, after the replacement of the previous regime,

06:21often has a turmoil like this.

06:24Maybe if you can remember, 10 years ago,

06:26when Mr. Jokowi was just in power, there was also a turmoil.

06:29But this time it's worse.

06:32Because coincidentally, we have Donald Trump abroad

06:35who has quite extreme policies.

06:37And we may also inherit some fiscal risks

06:43from the previous government,

06:45from foreign loans that will fall in time.

06:48So actually, this turmoil is quite normal.

06:51Quite normal?

06:52Yes, because they are just in power.

06:55Maybe there is a new policy that they will implement.

06:58And the market's response was definitely negative at first.

07:03But after a while, the proof that the policy can be carried out well,

07:08transparency, and in accordance with what the market wants,

07:12I think it will pass after a while.

07:17Okay, Iburita.

07:18In general, where do you see the policies of the current government?

07:21How is it?

07:23Is it pro-tendering to the capital market?

07:25There are also those who say that it seems unclear.

07:28How is it?

07:30Yes, at first there was no certainty.

07:33Because there are changes in regulations.

07:37The communication was also unclear yesterday.

07:42Mr. Prabowo said that the capital market is judicious.

07:47Maybe he was kidding.

07:48But it is connoted by the capital market players.

07:54Then, yes, there are many.

07:56But maybe he tried to improve the communication.

07:59That's why this time he tried to gather the capital market players to meet.

08:04Okay.

08:05Maybe the communication is still not good.

08:09Maybe we have to admit that this is a new government.

08:12They are still clueless or trying to continue what they did before.

08:18So maybe that's the communication factor that needs to be increased.

08:23And the explanation of what the next capital market will be like.

08:28Will it really become a concern again?

08:31Because for the last few months since the change, it doesn't seem to be the main concern.

08:39But after the internal correction, maybe it will be a better concern.

08:44Actually, the index weakness has been directed.

08:47If we talk about the year-to-date, it's 9.86%, almost 10%.

08:51Maybe the fluctuations started to appear from the communication pattern of the president earlier.

08:55He said that the stock market is volatile.

09:00Then, at the opening of the year-to-date trading, he was not present.

09:04Then, yes, there are many things and many policies that have not been evaluated yet.

09:11We have to wait and see first.

09:13Well, by looking at what you said earlier, it seems that there is an effort from the government to improve it.

09:20For example, by meeting with investors, ministers asking for income,

09:24and also planning to reduce bureaucracy and deregulation to invest heavily, deregulation.

09:30Do you see slowly, maybe after Eid,

09:34especially since there is a sentiment that Eid people want to holiday first,

09:37secure their position first, afraid that later there will be unexpected policies externally.

09:42Do you see that investors' confidence will improve soon through the efforts of the government?

09:48Yes, the deregulation planned by Mr. Prabowo is actually a really positive step

09:53to simplify the rules that protect investment.

09:56But consistent implementation and monitoring of policy effectiveness will still be a determining factor.

10:03So investors will still wait for the deregulation that will be planned to work.

10:12So, this is a speech.

10:14I mean, is the plan and practice going to be as smooth as expected?

10:19We are still waiting for the reality to be smooth.

10:25If it's smooth, it's really good.

10:27Because we are really left behind for investment.

10:31Many other countries have gotten foreign investors, but we are still left behind.

10:37But honestly, from all my experience in the capital market,

10:41and all my years in the capital market,

10:43I say that this year is really difficult.

10:48This year is really difficult?

10:50Yes, compared to the previous crises.

10:52Since 1998, we have experienced the financial crisis,

10:56then also in 2000, various crises.

10:59This year is difficult because we used to, for example, in the banking correction,

11:03we can hide in some community.

11:06But this time, even in the commodities,

11:08we have an increase in royalties that eventually the shares are also corrected.

11:12Then we want to hide the consumer, but there is a cut spending.

11:16The government spending is cut for allocations to other sectors.

11:20Consumers will get less spending,

11:26so the consumer sector will also be ...

11:30Sustained?

11:31Yes.

11:32So we are also confused now where to hide.

11:35In the past, there was still a defensive stock,

11:38but now the defensive is also ...

11:41not like that.

11:43We will find out later.

11:45If so, you recommend in a situation like this,

11:48what should we do?

11:50And also, we will discuss something interesting,

11:52that is the IPO.

11:53If the stock market is reopened after the holiday,

11:56on the 11th, maybe April 11th,

11:57there will be an IPO from Kopi Fore.

12:00I will be back soon.

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