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Kalshi and Robinhood's Partnership in Prediction Markets
SportsGrid
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3/19/2025
Category
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Sports
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00:00
So this is the story that I think maybe is the most fascinating one of the day, because Kalshi,
00:06
for every single reason, Sam, under the sky, is getting in our show and making news,
00:12
it feels like, every single week. So look, they're part of the prediction market. I'm
00:17
going to recap a little bit of some of what I understand, and then please correct me after I'm
00:21
done. FanDuel comes out and says, not specifically about Kalshi, but just says, hey, look, if these
00:27
prediction markets are going to be out there, we don't know that we can back responsible gaming
00:31
with these. Then DraftKings comes out and says, hey, look, we're going to do the same thing that
00:35
Kalshi is doing. Essentially, now we hear that Robinhood, they're partnering here with Kalshi.
00:41
So I mean, this is obviously, you know, people are looking at this as a moneymaker or else we
00:45
wouldn't be talking about them as much. Yes, certainly. I think we have to go back to
00:50
around December is when Kalshi and other prediction markets, PolyMarket, and even
00:56
Crypto.com, these entities that are not sports betting websites, they essentially allow you to
01:03
wager on the outcome of an event. So for instance, you could bet on the election by buying a
01:09
proposition of whether Trump or Harris would win. Technically, it's not betting. There was a court
01:15
case that got solved this past year that kind of allowed that to go through and not be regulated as
01:21
gambling. Once that happened, that kind of opened up the floodgates to what exactly can we offer on
01:27
these prediction markets. So Kalshi and a couple others have the bright idea to offer betting on
01:31
the Super Bowl, essentially, where you're not actually gambling, you're just buying a proposition
01:36
of whether a team will win or not. Sort of the same thing, but a different mechanism. And they're
01:41
doing it under that different mechanism is because they don't want to adhere to the state
01:45
by state gambling rules. This is legal or this is available in all 50 states. So Kalshi and Robinhood
01:51
were then going to partner to offer Super Bowl wagering. They pulled that back at the CFTC's
01:57
request. The CFTC essentially said, hey, this is a lot. We don't really know whether we can regulate
02:03
it. We don't know how to regulate it. We don't know whether to leave this up to the states.
02:07
And that has created this mass uncertainty where we've talked about on this show again and again,
02:12
you have the feds trying to regulate it. You have states like Nevada coming out and saying,
02:16
actually, this is gambling. You need to stop this. And you have major leagues have come out.
02:20
The MLB came out and said, there's no safeguards here. FanDuel, as you mentioned,
02:25
said that their platform, we have to do all these requirements to pay fees, licenses. We vet,
02:31
we make sure that there's no crazy things going on behind the scenes in terms of match fixing.
02:36
These platforms can just offer this. So Robinhood had halted on the Super Bowl,
02:40
but now with March Madness, $3 billion is going to be bet at legal sports support.
02:44
It seems like they kind of just thought this is a no-brainer. Let's launch it while we can grab
02:49
the money. And again, you don't have to pay any of the taxes, the fees, anything. So it's a much,
02:53
much more lucrative business than it is to open up a sports book, even an offshore sports book.
02:59
There's a roundtable later this month to kind of be the first step in figuring this all out.
03:03
But it seems like these companies are just going all out and saying, we're going to do it until you
03:08
tell us we can't. So it'll be really interesting to see how many people use this because it was
03:13
very popular on the Super Bowl. And I'd imagine if they make a lot of money doing it, they're
03:18
not going to want to stop anytime soon.
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