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Drenching downpours to elevate flood risk this weekend
AccuWeather
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3/13/2025
Much of the eastern U.S. can expect heavy rainfall that will elevate the risk of flooding this weekend. Among the states at risk of renewed flooding are Kentucky, Tennessee, West Virginia and Ohio.
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00:00
flooding. You can see the 10-year historical average for weather fatalities, 48 for tornadoes,
00:05
but 103 for flooding. And that's why we want to bring in one of our experts. Joining me right now
00:10
is AccuWeather flooding expert Alex Szczesowski. Alex, thank you so much for being with us on
00:15
AccuWeather Early, where we're going to break down the huge flooding threats. And this is fresh in a
00:19
lot of people's mind because you're saying just a month ago, this is what we were dealing with
00:23
in Kentucky. Yeah, it was pretty much a month ago to the day. We had significant flooding in central
00:28
and eastern Kentucky. That was the apex of it. We have another flooding event coming up here.
00:33
We don't think it's going to be necessarily quite as extreme as that, but we are going to have
00:38
significant flooding with this, and most of that's going to stem from flash flooding, we think, this
00:43
time. If you look at the past 30-day rainfall, you can see where some of that heaviest rainfall
00:48
was centered up across Kentucky. And we also were coming off of ground being frozen. There was some
00:54
snow up in the mountains, some snow cover on the ground. So that kind of added into that.
00:59
So if we step forward here, we take a look at the drought monitor. There's actually some
01:03
significant areas here where we can use the rain. There's been some wildfire activity going on,
01:07
significant wildfire activity. So this rain coming in is going to certainly help that.
01:12
And some of the dry ground here is also going to help the amount of rain that we're going to
01:16
get here a little bit, kind of cancel it out. But that's not going to be the case everywhere.
01:20
And so if we take a look at what we're expecting here in terms of flooding
01:25
tomorrow, or on Saturday, the dark green area is the area of greatest concern where we could have
01:31
widespread flash flooding in there. I think we're looking at a general 2 to 4 inches of rain in that
01:36
dark green zone, 1 to 2 inches surrounding that. But within that dark green zone, there's a
01:41
potential for 6 inches of rain to fall, and some of that could fall within 6 hours. So you're
01:46
definitely going to get urban flooding from this. You're definitely going to get small stream
01:50
flooding from this. Any low water crossings there or secondary roads along these small
01:54
streams could be very dangerous. You don't want to try to cross them in this situation.
01:58
There's also going to be some river flooding with this, mostly with the secondary rivers that kind
02:02
of feed into the Tennessee and Cumberland rivers. Those secondary rivers here will see some
02:08
significant rises with this, and that'll eventually work their way down the Ohio and Mississippi with
02:12
some subtle to moderate rises. If we step forward here to Sunday, the main action then
02:19
shifts to the I-81 and I-95 corridors. Travel probably along I-81 is going to be the worst.
02:26
We think probably Sunday midday into the afternoon. Then along I-95, you're probably
02:31
looking at urban flooding problems here later Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Those
02:36
will be the worst times to be on the road when there can be significant ponding and very poor
02:40
visibility due to some gusty thunderstorms and also some torrential rainfall that's going to be
02:44
sweeping through. Accular flooding expert Alex Zasowski, thank you so much again for joining
02:49
us and bringing your expertise about the flooding that we'll be tracking through this weekend.
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