NHL Best Bets: Four Nations Faceoff Finals, USA the Favorite

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00:00TV Tom Vecchio for a prop perspective on this Monday the final day of the round-robin of the Four Nations face-off

00:08But a change in location

00:10Stateside we come we're shipping up or I guess down to Boston from Montreal inside TD Garden today for a doubleheader of

00:19Matchups Vecchio we appreciate the time as always looking forward to that prop perspective

00:24For this Monday doubleheader in what has been a great event so far in the Four Nations face-off

00:30Of course it has been absolutely awesome over the first few days

00:34We have two more games today the final on Thursday like you mentioned a lot to get to

00:39We also take an early look at some baseball line some baseball futures

00:43Which I've locked in on Saturday night on in-game live when I was talking when I was in the show with Brady Cannon

00:48Let's get to it

00:50Listen, we're gonna have to clip off this segment to remember this moment middle of February if this does end up cashing come late

00:58September let's go back Tom to Saturday night and that Four Nations face-off thriller up in Montreal between the United States

01:06And Canada there was fights. There was anger. There was hate and

01:11ultimately an American

01:133-1 victory the u.s. Is now booked a spot in the Four Nations final on

01:19Thursday evening inside TD Garden with the 3-1 win over the Canadiens Vecchio when you look back on

01:26Saturday work in the show getting ready for this matchup. What will you remember most?

01:31I'll remember most at the u.s. Took care of things on defense right and you're holding an

01:38unbelievably talented

01:39offensive team to

01:41One goal that came early and then locked things down for the rest of the game and granted you could say that Canada wasn't at

01:48Full strength, right? They didn't have camel car out there

01:50Who's literally the best defender in the world?

01:51When you have McDavid McKinnon and Crosby out there Mitch Marner Sam Reiner all these players, can you hold them to one goal?

01:59that is

02:00Incredibly incredibly. I would say almost inspiring of what we're going to see next year considering the u.s

02:07Also, isn't that full strength when Quinn Hughes isn't there and Kate Thompson isn't on the team and Jason Robinson is on team

02:12So having to build on this for next year's gold medal game to beat Canada. That is what I'm truly interested in

02:20Let's take a look tonight Canada and Finland gonna square up 1 p.m

02:23Eastern here and as you know, the great warriors of the past guys, as you know travel across oceans here

02:29What the first thing they do once they landed they burn the boats because they're not going back to show we are here to win

02:35So what I'm hearing from inside team Canada all the executives took the passports and lit them on fire

02:40Cuz the boys gotta stay for two games and they gotta win which includes game number one heavy favorites

02:45Midas 430 price a total of six and a half is Canada lay waste to Finland today. How about that Tom?

02:52I really do think they come away with this this win and you know

02:56a lot of these numbers were moving in game on no no pun intended for in-game live when I was doing on Saturday when

03:01You know Canada was on the path to losing they ended up losing the game when final and it was also these numbers shift

03:07And when it comes to looking at how that like Canada needs to have win by two goals

03:12Like they need to take care of this because they went to overtime versus Sweden. So we're not getting three points there

03:16They lost in the US if they go to overtime again, they are putting themselves at a massive massive

03:22Disadvantage when it comes to potentially advancing to the finals obviously the US plays later to play Sweden

03:27Whatever the points may be that's what it is

03:28I think the play would be Canada minus one and a half which I spoke about on Saturday night

03:32That line is shifted dramatically is minus 120

03:34It's last time I saw was minus 150 minus 160 for minus one and a half on the puck line

03:38So Canada needs to come away with a big performance today

03:42Canada wins in regulation

03:44They go to the title game on Thursday night for the rematch against the United States now on US soil

03:51Maybe DRS they won't need passports even a return back to the great white north very very soon

03:57But I did like the inspired conqueror type of analogy you had right there

04:03So that's what's at stake

04:05Canada Finland winner in regulation

04:08They advance to the final if the game goes to overtime a small crack opens up for the Swedes

04:15Sweden could advance with a regulation win

04:18Against the United States. So let's get to the nightcap in

04:22Boston trying to continue the fervor and the atmosphere from Saturday night the Americans back home in still a favorite Tom

04:29Against team Sweden not nearly as drastic of a favorite as we have seen in a variety of spots

04:36Do you think the numbers are taking in the stakes into account, you know, these numbers may shift as

04:44after we get the the finale of game one and this reminds me of the

04:48Last regular season games of Mets versus Braves if remember that doubleheader

04:53We had to end the regular season that we will know partially know the outcome in theory of what could happen

04:58So I'm not expecting Connor Hell you book to start for keep USA

05:01Just because he should be starting the final wouldn't be surprised to see a split

05:04Jeremy Swinburne is the Bruins goalie to see him start on home ice wouldn't be surprised

05:08She could get Jake Andre in there as well

05:10So I wouldn't be surprised to see the u.s

05:12Drop and we see Sweden become a little bit closer to even not Sweden become the favorite

05:16But that number just moved after we get the conclusion of the of that first game

05:20So I like Austin Matthews to score

05:22I do like the over in this game a part of me wants to see Austin Matthews gorgeous because he plays the Toronto Maple Leafs

05:27And to see the TD Garan have to cheer for him would be awesome

05:30Brad March on score at the Bell Center a player that is hated by Montreal Canadiens fans to see them have to cheer for Brad

05:37March on was awesome

05:38So I'm gonna see as much of the same with Austin Matthews scoring and then I forgot to mention for that first game would

05:42Be Sidney Crosby over two and a half shots on goal

05:44This is one of the theories that you know

05:46Adam Dave and I had on the football shows throughout the season is sometimes we're not sure who's gonna be seeing the lion's share of

05:51the yards when it comes to receiving so you can play over Crosby McKinnon and McDavid and you really just hoping that two out of

05:57Considering that they are in a must win and if at least two of the three hit you are coming by net positive

06:01So it's kind of the approach. I'm taking I'm not sure who it's going to be tonight for today for Canada

06:06But I do like Crosby

06:08Tom let's find out who it's going to be for the tournament itself with the fan blue sports book here taking a look at the

06:12Winner here for the future is team USA who was a plus money price now shifted to minus 150

06:17Because they've already found their way into the final Canada plus 160 Finland 13 to 1 in Sweden

06:2242 to 1 any buy-in points at this point is Canada at plus 160 now value for you

06:28You could take the plus 160 and you know

06:31That's kind of a roundabout way instead of taking their money line today, which is minus, you know

06:35400 minus 460 whatever does you take their their tournament out right and it's kind of getting them on the money line today

06:40So I don't mind that but I'm not betting on Canada when I can never do that

06:44Hmm, very true Tom back. He'll very well said it would be interesting though

06:49Assuming that that is the matchup

06:51The United States was a slight underdog if I am correct, basically a money line pick them price for Saturday's game in Montreal

06:59What exactly would that favorite price be for the u.s. On Thursday in Boston?

07:05You would think if it is the United States

07:07Versus Canada come Thursday night for the title in the four nations face off

07:11It's probably closer to a pick them on the money line as well

07:14Yeah, so you were shifted to minus 120 on the money line slight favorite after camel car got ruled out on Saturday

07:21We need a game. So it wouldn't be surprised if it's a little bit closer even assuming assuming the camel car does play this afternoon

07:29Interesting stuff overall there. So yeah, we had a lot to be desired in this but how about a face-off MVP

07:34Here for us, but hell you buck plus 280 McDavid plus 480, which ways the value looking for you here Tom

07:41You know, it might be hell you buck as the easy answer

07:44But Jake and so has a couple goals already and if he adds a goal in that gold medal around not gold medal game

07:49But if he adds a goal in the final that could really push him over

07:52Especially if you know, they win the game three to four to like how you buck doesn't have a shutout performance

07:56He does give up a few goals and a winning goal obviously would be that so I do like Enzo plus 650

08:02I think that's a fair price on his value

08:04The pride of Omaha, Nebraska Jake Denzel

08:07I like that look as well a lot of America Canada talk

08:11America's pastime up in the great white north because Vecchio doesn't just provide the prop perspective

08:17He is the home run prop king and that even comes calling his shot before a major league baseball season begins

08:24Vecchio the 2025 campaign who's leading the bigs in the long ball this year

08:29So this is something I discussed on Saturday night on in-game live with Brady Cannon and we're looking at these props

08:34season-long props to lead the league in home runs and Vladimir Guerrero jr.

08:37Is that 45 to 1 was at 45 to 1 has moved to 40 to 1 Brady?

08:41Who's out in in Vegas told me that the circus sportsbook an amazingly sharp sportsbook had him at 27 to 1

08:47So I'm just buying in at least on some of that differential

08:50I can get Vladdy at 45 to 1 a I love the fact that he has a contract negotiation. I held up in the air

08:55He's not getting extension. His underlying metrics are fantastic

08:58The problem for Vladdy is he's not generating fly balls

09:01His heart contact rate is still over 40 percent. His fly ball rate last year was 33 percent

09:06He can fix the fly ball rate mechanically as long as he still has that underlying power

09:09He still has a strong barrel rate, which was the highest last year at 13 points

09:13I'm percent with the high since 2001 so he has it my metrics even through the fly balls

09:18Down to the bell compact deal. We appreciate it always

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